Flash Flood Risk. NWS Doppler out of Grand Forks is estimating some 6-10" rainfall amounts over far southeastern North Dakota and northeastern South Dakota, 2-3 month's worth of rain overnight. These storms are weakening, but still capable of some 3-6" rainfall amounts from near Wheaton to Breckenridge and Wheaton. More from the NWS:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 817 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... RICHLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA... WILKIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
* UNTIL 800 PM CDT MONDAY
* AT 817 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. THE RADAR INDICATED 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD ALREADY FALLEN IN THE LIDGERWOOD AND HANKINSON AREAS.
* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE... WAHPETON...BRECKENRIDGE...HANKINSON...LIDGERWOOD...WYNDMERE... ABERCROMBIE AND BARNEY.
MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. ONE OR TWO FEET OF WATER WILL FLOAT MOST CARS DOWNSTREAM.
Weakening Storms. NWS Doppler out of the Twin Cities at 11:23 am shows heavy showers and T-storms from Alexandria and Glenwood westward to Wheaton - drifting east/northeast - the bulk of the rain may stay just north of MSP early this afternoon.
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You may have a huh-what? moment later today as temperatures surge into the low 90s with dew points in the low 70s. Perfectly normal for early July, but late September? Considering we could be experiencing flurries and frost in late September consider it a gift; one more chance to sweat it out. 80s and T-storms spill into the weekend before the inevitable cool-down next week. More on Maria, which has left behind a trail of destruction. I have a very bad feeling about Puerto Rico. Many who survived the storm may not survive the aftermath.
Once again, let's all refrain from whining about the humidity or the storms or the bug - or the inevitable cold fronts. Not after seeing the photos and videos from Puerto Rico and the St. Croix. Staggering levels of flooding and wind damage from Maria, which (mercifully) should take a track just east of the USA mainland. What a season...
Tuesday wasn't hard to take: lukewarm with some sunshine and a nice breeze. About as good as it gets in September, or any month. Storms should clear out by late morning as we salvage a nice Wednesday afternoon. A hot front arrives later in the week; 90F not out of the question over southern Minnesota Friday afternoon. Saturday looks hot and sticky with a growing chance of showers and storms into Tuesday of next week as a front limps across the state. Small potatoes compared to what residents of Puerto Rico are bracing for - pretty much a worst-case scenario for the island as Category 5 Hurricane Maria arrives today.
Tracking the carnage in the Caribbean I am amazed by the rapid intensification of Maria yesterday, extremely concerned about potential loss of life in Puerto Rico if the storm strikes tomorrow as a Category 5, and determined not to gripe about Minnesota's weather anytime soon, no matter what Mother Nature throws at us. Today looks drier/milder, but watch for strong storms by late evening. A few may turn severe over western Minnesota.
Short-term, Monday looks gray and increasingly wet; puddles possible by midday and likely for the long, slog home Monday afternoon. Another showery swipe arrives early Wednesday, with some .5 to 1 inch amounts by midweek. Jose will push heavy surf and high winds toward Long Island and Cape Cod by Wednesday as Maria Churns through the Caribbean. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson