Flash Flood Risk. NWS Doppler out of Grand Forks is estimating some 6-10" rainfall amounts over far southeastern North Dakota and northeastern South Dakota, 2-3 month's worth of rain overnight. These storms are weakening, but still capable of some 3-6" rainfall amounts from near Wheaton to Breckenridge and Wheaton. More from the NWS:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 817 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2011
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... RICHLAND COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA... WILKIN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
* UNTIL 800 PM CDT MONDAY
* AT 817 AM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. THE RADAR INDICATED 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAD ALREADY FALLEN IN THE LIDGERWOOD AND HANKINSON AREAS.
* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE... WAHPETON...BRECKENRIDGE...HANKINSON...LIDGERWOOD...WYNDMERE... ABERCROMBIE AND BARNEY.
MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. ONE OR TWO FEET OF WATER WILL FLOAT MOST CARS DOWNSTREAM.
Weakening Storms. NWS Doppler out of the Twin Cities at 11:23 am shows heavy showers and T-storms from Alexandria and Glenwood westward to Wheaton - drifting east/northeast - the bulk of the rain may stay just north of MSP early this afternoon.
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We've lost 2 1/2 hours of daylight and about 4 degrees off our average high temperature; the sun now as high in the sky as it was in mid-April. No hot fronts are brewing, but today will feel like July; more 80s likely next week. The arrival of cooler air sets off a few T-storms late tonight, but Thursday there will be no doubt in your mind that the atmosphere is shifting gears. More downpours by Sunday? Well, at least the pattern is consistent...
After a less-than-optimal Saturday yesterday restored my faith in a Minnesota August. At the risk of editorializing, it was perfect. A gusty south wind tugs the mercury well into the 80s today and Tuesday; another squall line of heavy T-storms late Tuesday night into early Wednesday marks the leading edge of cooler, drier air. A few T-showers may sprout again by the weekend. I know, what a shock.
Good news on the weather front: today will be even nicer than yesterday! At least we salvage one day of the weekend. With any luck we can dry out a little as we head into the Minnesota State Fair and Labor Day. The maps still look more like June than August.
If you liked Friday you will adore today with gusty northwest winds, off and on showers and temperatures stranded in the 60s. Not a great lake day, but it won't slow too many of us down. Sunday looks brighter, drier and milder after a chilly start. No, it's not quite time to dig out the jackets, not yet. Meanwhile the GFS is pulling a big hurricane into the southeastern USA by late August. We'll see.
The atmosphere is shifting gears - the first real taste of autumn is brewing for the weekend, and this surge of cool air spins up a storm capable of dropping 1-3" of additional rain today into Saturday night. Just when you thought it couldn't get any wetter. Saturday looks windy, cool, wet and foul - Sunday looks better, and it should feel like summer again by early next week.