Stalled Front. Heavy showers and T-storms forming along a temporarily stalled frontal boundary will mean the best chance of locally heavy rain and flash flooding over central Minnesota today, from near Montevideo and St. Cloud to Brainerd and the far northern suburbs of the Twin Cities. Here's the latest on a Flash Flood Warning posted west of St. Cloud:
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN MORRISON COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
WESTERN STEARNS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
* UNTIL 1130 AM CDT
* AT 730 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE
WARNED AREA. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE BEFORE THE RAIN LIGHTENS
* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
ALBANY AND FREEPORT.
THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...
SOUTH TWO RIVER...HAY CREEK...STONY CREEK...NORTH FORK CROW
RIVER...LITTLE ROCK CREEK...TWO RIVER...GETCHELL CREEK...SPUNK
CREEK...NORTH TWO RIVER...BEAUTIFUL CREEK...SKUNK RIVER...PLATTE
RIVER...KRAIN CREEK...LITTLE TWO RIVER...ELMDALE CREEK...TAYLOR
CREEK AND SWAN RIVER.
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.
Morning Satellite Loop. 1 km vis imagery shows T-storms flaring up north/west of the frontal boundary draped from southwest into central and northeastern Minnesota. Some morning and midday sun is likely from the Twin Cities on south and east into Wisconsin, but T-storms may push east into MSP by afternoon.
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Storms rumble across the state Tuesday, and a few may turn severe. Dew points in the mid-70s will make it feel like mid-90s by late afternoon. Dew points drop into the 50s tomorrow, taking the edge off the heat. Highs reach 85 to 90F the next 5 days before a stronger puff of Canadian air arrives next week. Hottest days behind us? Probably. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson
Sunday was a remarkable day: bright sun, reasonable humidity levels, no wild storms, no running and screaming - I could temporarily disconnect the Doppler. Today looks dry but a round of storms may rumble overhead early Tuesday as dew points surge into the 70s. No extended Dog Days - some Canadian relief is likely by midweek.
It's July. It gets hot in July on a fairly consistent basis. Highs near 90 and a noteworthy heat index probably shouldn't come as a shock to anyone. The next 3-4 days will be uncomfortable but I do see a dip in dew point the latter half of the week. A closer look at the 7-Day, weather-related disaster declarations, and how weather radar was discovered - quite by accident.
After a thundery start Friday mellowed into a pretty nice day - beastly humid, but the biggest PM storms flared up to our east. We should enjoy a dry Saturday, an isolated thunder risk late Sunday, again Monday, but many of us will go 3 days without checking the Doppler. Some would call this the Dog Days; by early next week it will feel like 95-100F. Not exactly Dallas-hot or Atlanta-humid, but the next few days will be some of the warmest of the summer.
The strongest T-storms should track off north of MSP this morning, maybe brushing the metro, but a better chance of atmospheric rocking and rolling from Brainerd to Mille Lacs to Duluth. We dry out a bit tomorrow with more 80s; the latest NAM model run prints out nearly 3" of rain from T-storms Sunday. I'm skeptical - let's see if this is a fluke or a real trend.