Precipitation Update

It's been a wet first half of September across the upper Midwest, with many climate locations showing positive departure from averages so far in the month. Rochester, Wausau, and Green Bay have already received over a half a foot of rain this month, 4-6" above average.

Most locations across the upper Midwest are also running far above average for the year. You can see an area from Rapid City to Sioux Falls, St. Cloud and Rochester, over to Wausau and Green Bay that is a good 10-15"+ above average for the year. Rochester, in fact, is at its fourth wettest year on record with three and a half months to go, and they only need 0.60" to break the yearly record of 43.94" set in 1990.

In the Twin Cities, the 34.22" that has fallen through Saturday still ranks as the second wettest start to a year on record, less than an inch behind 1892.
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Severe Threat Tuesday

As a system moves into the upper Midwest later in the day Tuesday, a few strong to severe storms will be possible during the afternoon and overnight hours across central and northern Minnesota. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats in the Marginal Risk area.
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Fall Colors Update

That's right, we are already into fall color season here in Minnesota - one of my personal favorite times of the year! Already some areas of the state are showing 10-25% color at some state parks according to the MN DNR. They said on Twitter that some of the early fall color - especially in Fort Snelling State Park - could be due to the flooding and wet weather we've had this year:

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We Have Plenty In Common With San Diego!
By Paul Douglas

For a few fleeting weeks in September Minnesota meteorologists commiserate with forecasters in San Diego. "Paul, what time will the fog lift?"

Great question. Up north the fog was thick, forcing us to use our imagination during a weekend pontoon ride. "Imagine loons and American eagles over there" I gestured in the mist. "On a sunny day this would be so nice."

Fog peaks in September, when the atmosphere is still moist (sorry) and nights are long, allowing the temperature to cool to the dew point, saturating the air. Lazy clouds form on the ground, a phenomena we know as fog.

This week would feel right at home in July; a streak of 80s, random thunderstorms with an extra serving of humidity. Today looks dry, but a stray T-storm may bubble up late Tuesday & early Wednesday. Daytime highs reach low to mid 80s. Not too shabby, considering today's average high at MSP is 73F.

The approach of cooler air ignites more showers and T-storms ob Saturday. That said, I do see a mild bias into late September.

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Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: Warm sunshine. Wake up 62. High 85. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind SE 10-15 mph.

TUESDAY: Sticky sun, stray T-storm possible. Wake up 69. High 84. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind S 15-25mph.

WEDNESDAY: Early thunder, then muggy sunshine. Wake up 70. High 83. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind W 7-12 mph.

THURSDAY: Mix of clouds and sunshine. Wake up 62. High 81. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind E 5-10 mph.

FRIDAY: Still humid, scattered T-storms. Wake up 66. High 80. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind S 10-15 mph.

SATURDAY: Unsettled with a few bands of T-storms. Wake up 65. High 77. Chance of precipitation 60%. Wind SW 10-20 mph.

SUNDAY: Intervals of sun, probably drier. Wake up 60. High 74. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind W 7-12 mph.

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This Day in Weather History
September 16th

2006: A rapidly forming tornado hits Rogers just before 10pm, causing one fatality.

1992: New Market receives nearly a foot of rain. A bridge collapses during a flood in northern Le Sueur County.

1955: An F1 tornado touches down in Mille Lacs and Kanabec Counties, causing 1 fatality and $500,000 in damages.

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Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
September 16th

Average High: 72F (Record: 94F set in 1955)
Average Low: 52F (Record: 38F set in 1873)
Average Precipitation: 0.10" (Record: 1.97" set in 1997)

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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
September 16th

Sunrise: 6:52 AM
Sunset: 7:22 PM

*Length Of Day: 12 hours, 29 minutes and 35 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: ~3 minute and 5 seconds
*When Do We Drop Below 12 Hours Of Daylight? September 26th (11 hours, 58minutes, and 32 seconds)

*Next Sunrise At/After 7:00 AM: September 23rd (7:01 AM)
*Next Sunset At/Before 7:00 PM: September 28th (6:59 PM)

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Minnesota Weather Outlook

A dry and mostly warm day is expected across the state Monday, with highs climbing into the 80s in many locations. Some locations in western Minnesota could even flirt with 90F! If you miss free air-conditioning, you might want to head up to the North Shore where highs will only be in the 60s due to a stronger southeast lake breeze.

Here's a closer look at those highs across the Arrowhead for Monday. A few areas, including Tofte and Grand Portage, may not even make it out of the 50s. Meanwhile, the further inland you go, the warmer the temperatures will be, including 80F out toward Grand Rapids and Hill City.

Most highs on Monday across the state will be a good 10-20F degrees above average. The areas closest to average (within a few degrees either above or below average) will be near and along the North Shore - again where those cooler highs will be. The average high in the Twin Cities for September 16th is 72F.

We'll have a little touch of summer in September this week in the Twin Cities, as highs climb into the 80s for at least the first couple days. We could see them a touch cooler for the second half of the week in the 70s, however, that would still be 5-10F degrees above average.

Enjoy the blast of warmer weather this week, as the extended forecast shows cooler weather expected as we head into the last full week of the month. I think the graph above is overdoing the potential cool weather for that last week of September, but I would expect highs to be in the low 70s to begin the week of the 23rd and then in the 60s by the end of that week.

We're watching a few chances of rain this week in the Twin Cities. The first arrives Tuesday into Wednesday, with another moving in late in the week into the weekend.

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National Weather Forecast

On Monday, Humberto will still be sitting off the Southeast coast, not bringing too many impacts to the region besides potentially some rain along the coast as well as higher surf and rip currents. Showers and storms will be likely along the northern and western Gulf Coasts. An area of low pressure will bring some scattered showers to portions of the Northeast and southern New England. Some showers and storms will be possible in the Southwest. Meanwhile, a front moving through the Northwest will also bring showers and storm chances. A few record highs could be possible in the Southeast.

A few areas of heavier rain will be possible through 7 PM Tuesday across the nation. Rainfall tallies could top 2" across portions of the Pacific Northwest and along the western Gulf Coast. The latter would be due to a tropical disturbance moving in, bringing some heavier rain along with it.

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Tropical Storm Humberto

Humberto was almost at hurricane strength as of Sunday evening, sitting off the Southeast coast. While this system will continue to produce rip currents and high surf along the Southeast coast, the system will turn away and head off in a northeasterly direction starting Monday. On this track, Humberto could impact Bermuda in some way as a Category 2 storm later Wednesday into Thursday.

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Cleanup resumes in Bahamas as Humberto swirls away

More from the Miami Herald: "Jeffrey Roberts lifted a mustard-yellow curtain from the ground as he looked for passports and other documents at the site where his family's home once stood in Grand Bahama. He then moved the cloth aside, picked up a pair of old, rusty pliers, and continued his search. "We got to take what God gives us," Roberts said in reference to Tropical Storm Humberto, which narrowly missed the island over the weekend as it continued on its northward trajectory well offshore of Florida's east coast."

Most Americans say climate change should be addressed now

More from CBS News: "A majority of Americans think action needs to be taken right now to address climate change. Most consider it at least to be a serious problem — including more than a quarter who say it is a crisis. Seven in 10 think human activity contributes a lot or some to climate change, and most feel they have a personal responsibility to do something about it, although many say they cannot afford to. Opinions on the subject are marked by partisan divisions. Most – 67% - think humans can do something about climate change – though more say we can only slow climate change (48%) than believe we can stop it entirely (19%). Those who believe humans don't contribute much to climate change are less likely to think humanity can do something about it."

Global warming hot spots pass safe limit

More from Climate News Network: "By land and sea, some of the planet’s hot spots are already above the temperature agreed by scientists and politicians as the maximum allowable to prevent a disastrous climate crisis. The limit was accepted by 195 governments in the Paris Agreement, reached in 2015: it committed them to preventing the global average temperature rising by more than 2°C (35°F) above its pre-industrial level, and doing all they could to keep it below 1.5°C. It is making slow progress. But a novel study, an analysis of scientific data by a leading US newspaper, says that about 10% of the Earth has already passed the 2°C level, with roughly twice as many hot spots above the 1.5°C mark."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great Monday! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!

 - D.J. Kayser

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