"Sheriff makes plea after many fishing on vast N. Minnesota lake are rescued"
"Authorities in northern Minnesota are pleading with resort owners to keep anglers off a popular and vast lake after a dozen or more people were rescued off an ice floe. Around midday Tuesday, reports came into the Beltrami County Sheriff’s Office about people fishing on the eastern side of Upper Red Lake who were stranded on a sheet of ice that broke free from the shore amid strong winds. Rescue personnel from the nearby city of Kelliher rescued 11 people, and there were reports of “many others being rescued by local resorts,” Sheriff Ernie Beitel said in a statement. As of Wednesday evening, Beitel said, authorities had yet to nail down exactly how many people were saved. Beitel said the failure of anyone to call 911 or the Sheriff’s Office about the potentially tragic circumstances made the formal and informal rescue operations more dangerous for the responders. The Sheriff’s Office contacted resorts in the area and urged them to keep anglers from going on the ice, which has iced over early this season to varying thickness because of unseasonably cold weather."

See more from StarTribune HERE:

Ice Safety
Our recent cold snap has been just enough to freeze over some area lakes and ponds, but be careful out there as most locations still don't have adequate ice to walk on. Here are some guidelines for ice safety from the MN DNR and remember that ice is NEVER 100% safe!
No Major Storms in Sight...
It's been cold, but not too snowy so far this November. MSP has only seen 1.6" of snow through the first half of the month, which is nearly 2" below average. We're also nearly 3" below average for the season, which starts July 1st. Interestingly, MSP average 9.3" of snow during the month of November with the snowiest being 46.9" back in 1991. Last November, we only had 4" and the last time we had near average snow during the month of November was back in 2014, when 9.4" fell.
6th Coldest Start to November at MSP Through November 15th
Well is certainly has been cold so far this month with some of the coldest air we've seen since early March nearly 8 months ago. Temps felt more like mid winter last week with highs only warming into the 10s and 20s and overnight lows dipping into the single digits! The coldest temperature I saw last week was -21F in Isabella!! The coldest low at MSP last week was 5F, which is the coldest it has been this early in the year since November 4th 1991, when the mercury dropped to -3F. Interestingly, the average temperature at MSP (through November 15th) is 27.4F, which is the 6th coldest start to any November on record.
Sunday Weather Outlook
A fast moving clipper will spread a rain/snow mix through the region overnight Saturday into early Sunday morning. It could be a little soggy to start on Sunday, but weather conditions will improve as we head through the day. Sky conditions will remain mostly cloudy with temps warming into the upper 30s, which will be slightly below average for mid November.
Sunday Weather Outlook
Here's the weather outlook across the region for Sunday, which looks a little cooler than it was on Saturday. Any precipitation that we have should fall early in the day with mostly cloudy skies persisting through the rest of the day. 
Weekend Clipper
Here's the simulated radar from PM Saturday to AM Monday, which suggests areas of light rain & snow overnight Saturday into early Sunday morning. This will be a fast moving clipper, so much of the day Sunday will be dry with more sunshine moving in on Monday.
Weekend Clipper
A fast moving clipper will exit the region early Sunday, but will drop up to 0.10" to 0.20" of liquid precipitation mainly east of the Twin Cities. There could be a little snow mixing in with up to 1" of slushy snow accumulations possible in the far northeastern reaches of Minnesota and into parts of central and northern Wisconsin.
MSP 7-Day Outlook
The 7-day outlook for MSP keeps temps warmer than it was last week with highs fairly close to average for this time of the year. However, temps take a bit of a hit late week with highs only warming into the low/mid 30s, which will be nearly -5F below average at that time. On another note, I still don't see any major storm systems developing close to hone anytime soon. Hopefully we'll continue that trend as we approach one of the busiest travel times of the year during Thanksgiving. Stay tuned.
Extended Temperature Outlook for the Twin Cities
Both the ECMWF (European model) and the GFS (American Model) keep temperatures in the 30s and 40s through the end of the month, which will likely be at or slightly above average for the 2nd half of November. Note that the average high temp at MSP in mid November is in the lower 40s, which drops to near freezing (32F) at the end of the month. According to the GFS, it could be a little colder as we approach the early part of December with highs possibly dipping into the 20s. 
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC, the temperature outlook from November 23rd to the 29th suggests that cooler than average temps will settle in across much of the nation once again with the exception of the Red River Valley, parts of California and much of Alaska.


8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the extended precipitation outlook across the nation suggests wetter weather across the Plains, parts of the Southwest and along the Gulf Coast States. Meanwhile, drier than average conditions will persist across the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, Northeast and also in the Pacific Northwest.


4th Wettest Year on Record at MSP (So Far Through November 14)
We're creeping closer to the wettest year on record at MSP, which currently stands at 40.32" set in 2016. So far, we're sitting at 4th wettest spot with 39.38" of total precipitation for the year thus far... That's only 0.94" away from the top spot and we've still got nearly 1.5 months left of 2019!
It's Been a Wet 2019 So Far...
The numbers below are quite impressive to say the least. Note that every climate reporting station listed below is above average precipitation for 2019. Incredibly, MSP is nearly 11" above average precipitation so far through November 15th, while Rochester is nearly 21" above average precipitation so far this year. Unreal! By the way, Rochester is already more than 7" above its wettest year ever recorded 43.94" set in 1990 and there is nearly 1.5 months left of 2019! 
Minnesota Crop Progress & Condition - November 12th
"Corn harvested for grain reached 63 percent, 11 days behind the average. Corn moisture content of grain at harvest averaged 22 percent, remaining the same as the previous week. Ninety-one percent of the soybean crop has been harvested, 9 days behind last year and 15 days behind normal."

"Phenology: October 29th, 2019"

If you've got a spare moment, have a listen to this wonderful podcast from John Latimer, a resident phenologist in northern Minnesota on KAXE. John is very knowledeable in the outdoor world and how certain events in nature are related to changes in the weather and climate. Here's the latest phenology report from last week: "Taking time to contemplate what is happening in nature is one of the many aspects of Northern Community Radio that sets us apart from any other radio station.  Each day we bring you a phenology note where our resident phenologist John Latimer shares a note from his journals of more than 35 years of climate and nature data collection.  Each Tuesday we dig even deeper with the full Phenology Report.  This week John discusses ice skating, falling thru the ice and much more!"
Good News for Thanksgiving Travelers
By Paul Douglas
"Minnesota is amazing. Everyone has their own lake!" I gushed to friends and family in other (duller) parts of America when I got here in 1983. "It's like living in an Up North resort."
That point was driven home yesterday while driving on windy roads from Pelican Lake to Grand Rapids, skirting birch trees and lightly- iced lakes; eagles circling overhead.
We are expecting our first grandchild in early 2020 and I hope he can experience the same Minnesota magic. My take: clean water, clean air and a stable climate shouldn't be subject to the whims of politics, industry and profit. They are fundamental human rights.
Flurries taper this morning; another clipper drops a light mix of rain and snow late Monday. The overall pattern won't favor big storms capable of significant precipitation for at least the next 2 weeks. We cool off a little by Thanksgiving, but the outlook is promising for travel plans.
Long range models suggest a relatively mild start to December. A white Christmas? My fingers are crossed.

Extended Forecast

SUNDAY: Early mix. Clouds linger. Winds. NW 10-15. High: 38.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Winds: WNW 5-10. Low: 28.

MONDAY: Few PM rain or snow showers. Winds: S 3-8. High: 39.

TUESDAY: Mix of clouds and sunshine. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 32. High: 43.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy, light mix possible later. Winds: NE 10-20. Wake-up: 33. High: 41.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy, few flakes. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 28. High: 37.

FRIDAY: Peeks of sun. A bit milder. Winds: SW 10-20. Wake-up: 24. High: 41.

SATURDAY: Gusty and raw with flurries. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 28 High: 36.

This Day in Weather History
November 17th

1996: Six inches of snow falls in Douglas, Pope, and Stevens Counties.

1835: A strange night is observed at Ft. Snelling. Northern lights are seen over prairie fires.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis
November 17th

Average High: 40F (Record: 71F set in 1953)
Average Low: 26F (Record: -5F set in 1880)

Record Rainfall: 1.21" set in 2015
Record Snowfall: 9.0" set in 1886

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
November 17th

Sunrise: 7:13am
Sunset: 4:43pm

Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours & 29 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 2 minutes & 17 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 21st): ~ 6 hours & 8 minutes

Moon Phase for November 17th at Midnight
1.6 Days Before Last Quarter Moon


What's in the Night Sky?

"The famous Leonid meteor shower is expected to be at its best in the predawn hours on Sunday, November 17, and Monday, November 18, 2018. We give the nod to Monday, November 18. But this year, in 2019, the waning gibbous moon will somewhat obstruct on this year’s production. In a dark sky, free of moonlight, you can typically see up to 10 to 15 meteors per hour at the shower’s peak. Will you see what’s shown on the image at the top of this post? Thousands of meteors per hour? No. That image is from 1998, when the Leonids’ parent comet – Comet Temple-Tuttle – was nearby. The Leonids are famous for producing meteor storms when the comet is in our neighborhood, but no meteor storm is expected this year, only a modest 10 to 15 Leonid meteors per hour."

See more from Earth Sky HERE:

2019 Preliminary Tornado Count
Here's the 2019 preliminary tornado count across the nation, which shows 1,587 tornadoes since the beginning of the year. May was a very active month and produced several hundred tornadoes across the Central US and across parts of the Ohio Valley.

2019 Preliminary Tornado Count

Here's a look at how many tornadoes there have been across the country so far this year. The preliminary count through November 14th suggests that there have been a total of 1,587 which is above the 2005-2015 short term average of 1322. Interestingly, this has been the busiest tornado season since 2011, when nearly 1,849 tornadoes were reported.
Sunday Weather Outlook
Temperatures in the eastern half of the country will still be quite a bit colder than average with readings running nearly -5F to -15F below average, while folks in the western half of the country will be nearly +10F to +20F above average! It appears that temps will warm even more over the next couple of days in the Southwest, which could be enough to set high temperature records across parts of California.
National Weather Outlook
Here's the weather outlook through the rest of the weekend and into early next week. A fast moving clipper system will spread areas of light rain and snow across parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes Region. Meanwhile, a coastal low will continue to drift north along the East Coast with areas of heavy rain and gusy winds. 

Heavy Ranifall Potential
The 7-day precipitation forecast from NOAA's WPC, shows heavy rain along parts of the East Coast, as a coastal low drifts north through early next week. Meanwhile, moisture from Tropical Storm Raymond will move into the Desert Southwest with heavy rain and localized flooding. Interestingly, not much moisture will make it into Minnesota through next weekend.
Tropical Storm Raymond
Tropical Storm Raymond has developed in the Eastern Pacific and is expected to remain at tropical storm strength as it lifts north toward Mexico over the next couple/few days.
Tracking Raymond
The latest forecast from NOAA's National Hurricane Center suggests that Raymond will drift north over the next few days and could perhaps impact the southern part of Baja California by late weekend or early next week as a tropical depression. Gusty winds and locally heavy rain will likely impact parts of northwestern Mexico and will also bring areas of heavier rain to the Desert Southwest.
"Venice Flooding Reveals A Real Hoax About Climate Change - Framing It As “Either/Or”
"The flooding in Venice this past week was extraordinary. According to my Forbes colleague Eric Mack, “On Tuesday, rains helped bring the seasonal high tides known as acqua alta to near record levels, just seven centimeters short of what was seen during the historic floods of 1966.” The mayor blamed climate change as did many other people around the world. That is when the hyperventilation started. As I listened to the mayor’s comments, two things came to mind. First, mayor Luigi Brugnaro  knows more about his city and its flooding tendencies than I sitting thousands of miles away. Second, I wasn’t listening with a bias so understood the point he was making. A combination of high tides, rainfall, and even land mass subsidence (sinking) amplifies such events. However, sea level rise associated with climate change is in the mix too. Which brings me to the point of this article. I have noticed that some people make the mistake of framing climate change as an “either/or” proposition. It is not. It’s “and.” Let me explain."

"Milky Way’s central black hole flings star out of galaxy"
"Five million years ago, a binary star system wandered too close to the supermassive black hole lurking at the core of the Milky Way. The hole’s ferocious gravity likely captured one of the stars, but the other was flung away with a velocity of more than 6 million kilometres per hour (3.7 million mph). That’s fast enough to escape the Milky Way, but even so, it will still take the outward-bound star, known as S5-HVS1, some 100 million years to pass through the galaxy’s outskirts and into the great void of intergalactic space. “We traced this star’s journey back to the centre of our galaxy, which is pretty exciting,” said Gary Da Costa, an astronomer at the Australian National University. “This star is travelling at record-breaking speed, 10 times faster than most stars in the Milky Way, including our Sun. “In astronomical terms, the star will be leaving our galaxy fairly soon and it will likely travel through the emptiness of intergalactic space for eternity. It’s great to be able to confirm a 30-year-old prediction that stars can be flung out of a galaxy by the supermassive black hole at its centre.” Using the 3.9-metre Anglo-Australian Telescope at Sliding Spring Observatory, an international team spotted the star by accident while searching for remnants of small galaxies orbiting the Milky Way."

"Worsening bushfires cause Australia to declare state of emergency"
"A state of emergency has been declared in Australia over escalating wildfires. David Elliott, the New South Wales minister for police and emergency services said the country faced what “could be the most dangerous bushfire week this nation has ever seen”. So far, at least three people have died, 100 people have been injured and 150 homes and buildings have been destroyed by the blazes devastating swathes of the eastern coast. The situation looks set to worsen as hot and dry winds pick up in strength. These latest fires come after Australia’s hottest summer on record, and an unusually hot and dry winter. “In south-east Queensland and northern New South Wales, the last three years have been drier and warmer than usual,” says Richard Thornton at the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre. “When preceding conditions have been like this, and the bush and grass is so dry, it doesn’t take much for a fire to get going once the wind is up. ”People living in and around Sydney, one of the most populous parts of the country, have been warned of “catastrophic” fire conditions for the first time since the classification was introduced in 2009. More than 100,000 homes in the area are within 100 metres of the bush and are at risk, according to consultancy firm Risk Frontiers."

"Why are weather apps still so unreliable?"
"It's early in the morning, you've just been shaken awake by your alarm, and it's time to get ready for the day. Without thinking much about it, you probably grab your phone and navigate to your weather app of choice so you can figure out what you'll be facing when you step out of the door. The problem is that those predictions are too often wrong, and you get stuck in a downpour without an umbrella or shivering in a short-sleeved shirt while gusts of wind make it feel like it's below freezing out. Complicating matters even more is the fact that if you check multiple weather apps, you might get completely different forecasts. Technology has come a long way in a short time, so why does it still feel like our weather predictions suck?"

"Hell Yes, Weird Ice Disk Season Is Upon Us"
"With winter comes changes, many of which are bad. The days get darker sooner. Christmas carols play everywhere. Sure, there are good things about winter, but at least for me, it’s particularly hard to find joy in the early days of the season, when the memory of summer and fall is still fresh. If you’re like me, then may I offer you a life raft in this sea of turbulent early winter emotions? Or more aptly, a life ice disk. Video emerged on Thursday of the first known swirly ice disk of the season. While smaller than the monstrous platter of ice that clogged Maine’s Presumpscot River last year, the new floating circle of ice spotted in Haynesville, Maine is still enough to stir my cold, dead heart. Local television station WABI shared footage a viewer captured of the ice disk. Though the station didn’t identify the exact location, it’s likely on the Mattawamkeag River that cuts through the tiny hamlet in the northeast part of the state near the U.S.-Canada border. The video shows the disk lazily rotating in the river current. Ice disks are usually a dead-of-winter phenomenon, but there’s no official ice disk season (sorry, I totally lied to you in the headline and I hope you can forgive me). They can form anytime the weather gets cold. And this week’s record cold snap in the eastern U.S. certainly helped with that part of the ice disk recipe."

"Snow in Texas and ice in Alabama? Unusual cold weather could become more common"
"A wavier jet stream brings cold Arctic air down south. That may be a counterintuitive result of climate change, some scientists say. This week, temperatures are expected to hit historic lows across much of North America. Already, it has snowed in Texas and frozen in Tennessee, and hundreds of towns and cities are preparing for icy cold weather. This week’s cold snap isn’t exactly unseasonal—after all, it’s autumn, heading toward winter, and it’s the time of year when much of North America sinks into chilly weather. Some scientists think, though, that the frequency and intensity of these kinds of cold interludes may be changing as the planet warms, as counterintuitive as that might sound. “This Arctic outbreak is connected to the behavior of the jet stream and the polar vortex,” says Judah Cohen, an atmospheric scientist at MIT. And those, in turn, are affected by a changing climate—mostly by intense warming in the high Arctic. The topic is controversial in the atmospheric science community, but some think they see a connection between a warmer planet and cold blasts of weather like the one North America is experiencing right now."

"Wind and solar can save the planet — can they save our water supply, too?"
"Solar panels and wind turbines are lifelines to any non-apocalyptic version of the future. They’ll help us keep the lights on, the air breathable, and the planet inhabitable. But while the climate and health benefits of wind and solar are well known, they have another, underappreciated feature that could come in handy in our inevitably warmer, drier future: They don’t rely on water. A new study published in Nature Communications explores how this often overlooked benefit could help alleviate water scarcity and improve food security during a drought. The paper looks at California, where surface water — the kind found in rivers and lakes — is shared between hydropower facilities that produce electricity and farmers downstream who use it for irrigation. During a drought, there’s less surface water available, forcing farmers to turn to the groundwater found in aquifers to water their crops. After a recent five-year dry spell where groundwater was being pumped out faster than it could be replenished, California’s aquifers are now depleted."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

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Cloudy With Some Light Rain Monday - Above Average Highs Through Wednesday