Extended Temperature Outlook
Here's the temperature outlook through the rest of July and into the early part of August. Note that temps will still be quite hot through the end of the week, but we are getting indications of a nice cool down next week. In fact, highs may even dip into the upper 70s for some!
ENHANCED Severe Risk Friday
According to NOAA's SPC, there is an EHNACED Severe Risk on Friday from west central Minnesota through much of central and northern Wisconsin. The risk includes the potential of large hail, damaging winds and even isolated tornadoes.
Weather Outlook Ahead
Weather conditions look fairly unsettled across the Upper Midwest later Friday into early Saturday with showers and storms, some of which could be strong to severe with locally heavy rain.
Rainfall Potential Through AM Tuesday
Here's the rainfall potential through PM Sunday, which suggests pockets of heavy rain across parts of the state. Scatterd showers and storms could produce localized areas of flooding, especially across the eastern part of Minnesota and into Central and Southern Wisconsin.
- Dangerous heat and humidity will continue to ramp up from today into the weekend from the Plains to the East Coast. Numerous Excessive Heat Warnings are already in place, stretching from southeastern South Dakota south to Oklahoma City and eastward into the Ohio Valley, as well as in the Philadelphia metro. Excessive Heat Watches are also in place across portions of the Northeast, including Pittsburgh, Washington D.C., New York City, and Boston.
- Highs in these areas are expected to climb into at least the 90s over the next several days, and when humidity is factored in it could feel more like 100-110F+ in some locations during the peak heating of the afternoon.
- Warm lows – near 80F some nights – won’t provide much relief overnight in cities like Kansas City, Chicago, New York City and Washington D.C.
- While we typically see hot weather during the summer, it’ll be the stretch of consecutive hot days and warm nights that will be problematic.
Excessive Heat Concerns. A dangerous summer heatwave will continue to take shape through the weekend from the Plains to the East Coast, with highs in the 90s and low 100s and heat index values climbing above 110F in some locations. Numerous heat alerts are in place due to the high afternoon heat index values as well as overnight lows that won’t provide much relief from the heat if not in an air-conditioned location.
Some locations under Excessive Heat Warnings include:
- Oklahoma City, OK: From 11 AM to 8 PM today for heat index values around 110F.
- Wichita, KS: Through 7 PM Saturday for highs between 95-105F and daily peak heat index values between 105-110F.
- Kansas City, MO: Through 8 PM Saturday for highs in the upper 90s to around 100F, daily peak heat index values between 105-110F, and nighttime lows in the upper 70s to around 80F.
- St. Louis, MO: Through 8 PM Saturday for highs in the upper 90s and daily peak heat index values up to 110F.
- Omaha, NE: Through 7 PM Saturday for highs in the mid-to-upper 90s and daily peak heat index values up to 113F.
- Des Moines, IA: Through 7 PM Saturday for highs in the 90s, daily peak heat index values between 100-110F, and nighttime lows in the mid-70s to around 80F.
- Chicago, IL: From Noon today through 7 PM Saturday for highs in the 90s (potentially nearing 100F Friday and Saturday) and peak daily heat index values between 99-115F.
- Indianapolis, IN: From 2 PM today through 8 PM Sunday for highs in the mid-to-upper 90s with peak daily heat index values between 105-110F.
- Louisville, KY: From 2 PM today through 8 PM Sunday for daily peak heat index values from 100-110F.
- Detroit, MI: From Noon today through 8 PM Saturday for highs in the upper 80s today and mid/upper 90s Friday and Saturday, with daily heat index values between 100-110F.
- Columbus, OH: From 2 PM today to 8 PM Saturday for highs in the low/mid-90s and daily peak heat index values of 100-105F.
- Philadelphia, PA: Until 10 PM Sunday for highs in the upper 90s and daily peak heat index values up to 110F.
Some locations under Excessive Heat Watches include:
- Cleveland, OH: From Friday afternoon through Saturday evening for daily peak heat index values from 105-112F.
- Pittsburgh, PA: From Friday afternoon through Saturday evening for highs in the low 90s and daily peak heat index values up to 104F.
- Washington, D.C./Baltimore, MD: From Friday morning through Sunday evening for daily heat index values potentially in the 110-115F range and overnight heat index values between 80-90F.
- New York, NY: From Friday afternoon through Saturday evening for highs in the upper 90s and daily peak heat index values up to 111F.
- Boston, MA: From Saturday morning through Saturday evening for highs in the mid/upper 90s and heat index values up to 107F.
- Rochester, NY: From Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon for daily heat index values as high as 108F.
- Raleigh, NC: From Saturday through Sunday evening for daily peak heat index values between 110-113F.
Some locations under Heat Advisories include:
- Little Rock, AR: From 11 AM to 8 PM today for heat index values between 105-110F.
- Twin Cities, MN: From Noon today through 7 PM Friday for highs in the 90s, daily heat index values between 95-105F, and overnight lows between 70-75F.
- Milwaukee, WI: From Noon today through 11 PM Friday for highs in the upper 80s to low 90s today with heat index values between 95-102F, and mid/upper 90s for highs Friday with heat index values between 105-111F.
- Memphis, TN: From 11 AM today through 8 PM Friday for daily peak heat index values between 105-109F.
- Raleigh, NC: From Noon to 7 PM both today and Friday for peak heat index values up to 105F.
Upper Midwest Highs And Lows. Highs into the weekend will reach into the mid/upper 90s from the Plains into the Ohio Valley during the afternoon hours with the potential the thermometer could top 100F in some locations. There also won’t be much relief at night as lows only dip into the 70s as far north as portions of Minnesota and Wisconsin – and only around 80F both Friday and Saturday morning for areas like Des Moines, Chicago, St. Louis, and Kansas City.
Upper Midwest Heat Index Values. Once you factor in the humidity (with dew points in the 70s) it is expected that it’ll feel more like the 100s during the peak heating of the afternoon as far north as locations in Minnesota and Wisconsin. These values could approach 110F in some locations, especially in the Thursday-Saturday timeframe for areas like Detroit, Chicago, and St. Louis. Some cooler and drier air will start to filter into portions of the region through the weekend, helping to bring relief to the Twin Cities by Saturday and at least slightly cooler air into Chicago and Des Moines by Sunday.
Northeast Highs And Lows. The main surge of heat will move into portions of the Northeast Friday into the weekend. Highs look to approach – if not break – 100F Saturday from Washington D.C. to Philadelphia to New York City. The last time New York City and Philadelphia saw a 100F+ high was back in July of 2012, with D.C. and Baltimore seeing 100F+ highs as recently as 2016. Saturday looks to be the warmest day for most locations, but highs will be only slightly cooler into Sunday. Meanwhile, lows Saturday-Monday morning will be at least around 80F in the major cities from New York City to D.C., which will provide no break in the heat through the overnight hours.
Northeast Heat Index Values. Especially from Friday and Saturday, heat index values of 100F+ will be possible from New York City southward. Saturday looks to have the highest heat index values, with 100F+ in Boston, and heat index values of 110F+ in areas like New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington D.C.
Heat Safety Tips. Here are some heat safety tips from NOAA for the next several days. This heat is not to be taken lightly through the rest of the week and the weekend across the central and Northeastern United States. While we typically see hot weather during the summer, it’ll be the stretch of consecutive hot days and warm nights that will be problematic. You can find more heat safety tips here: https://www.weather.gov/
D.J. Kayser, Meteorologist, Praedictix
Take a look at how much precipitation has fallen across the nation since January 1st. Note that much of our big surpluses are across the Central US, where some spots are nearly a foot above average! Interestingly, Minneapolis is still nearly 7" above average for the year, while much of California is still dealing with a fairly impressive surplus! The only locations that are really below average are those in the Pacific Northwest! Seattle and Portland are nearly 4" to 6" below average.
Lately I'm Amazed When It's Not Raining!
By Paul Douglas
"And I feel, so much depends on the weather.So is it raining in your bedroom?" sang Stone Temple Pilots in their song, "Plush". Frankly, my bedroom is just about the only place it's NOT raining right now.
During the summer we make plans, hold our breath and pray for a good weather outcome. When it's this hot and humid thunderstorms automatically bubble up, to drop rain and to cool the air. Think of them as 'brakes' on summer heat waves. I've said it before, Mother Nature owes us no favors.
Much of America is baking, with a heat index above 100-110F. We just get a taste today, before storms cool us off. A wind shift to the north cools us off over the weekend, with Saturday showers giving way to a sunnier, drier Sunday and a big dip in humidity.
Minnesota almost always dries out the latter half of meteorological summer, and I see a much drier pattern next week. A comfortable start gives way to another shot at 90F by late week.
For now, stay hydrated, avoid midday sun and try to think cool thoughts.
FRIDAY: Hot sun. Few t-storms. Winds: S 7-12. High: 92 (Feels like 105).
FRIDAY NIGHT: Slight chance of a shower or storm. Winds: N 5. Low: 68
SATURDAY: Cloudier and cooler. Few t-storms. Winds: N 8-13. High: 80.
SUNDAY: Dry with more sunshine. Lower humidity. Winds: N 5-10. High: 79.
MONDAY: Comfortable. More sunshine. Winds: W 8-13. High: 78.
TUESDAY: Sunny and warmer. Winds: NW 5-10. Wake-up: 62. High: 83.
WEDNESDAY: Mix of clouds and sunshine. Winds: E 5-10. Wake-up: 63. High: 84.
THURSDAY: More sunshine. Heating up. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 66. High: 86.
This Day in Weather History
1987: The town of Floodwood lives up to its name with nearly 6 inches of rain in two days.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
Average High: 84F (Record: 100F set in 1977)
Average Low: 64F (Record: 46F set in 1873)
Record Rainfall: 1.75" set in 1957
Record Snowfall: NONE
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
Hours of Daylight: ~15 hours & 09 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 1 minute & 49 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 21st): ~ 35 minutes
Moon Phase for July 19th at Midnight
3.4 Days After Full "Buck" Moon
"4:38 p.m. CDT - This month is when the new antlers of buck deer push out from their foreheads in coatings of velvety fur. The moon was also called the Full Thunder Moon, thunderstorms now being most frequent. Sometimes it's also called the Full Hay Moon. There will also be a Partial Lunar Eclipse that will be visible primarily from most of Africa, Eastern Europe and western Asia. At maximum eclipse, the upper two-thirds of the moon's disk will be immersed in Earth's dark umbral shadow. "
What's in the Night Sky?
"On the evenings of July 12, 13 and 14, 2019, watch for the bright waxing gibbous moon to swing by the giant planet Jupiter. Fortunately, the king planet is so bright that this world can easily withstand the lunar glare. After all, Jupiter is the fourth-brightest light in the heavens, after the sun, moon and planet Venus. Venus is a morning object now, virtually lost in the sun’s glare, so there’s no way to mistake Venus for Jupiter in the July evening sky. Although the moon and Jupiter appear close together on the sky’s dome, these two worlds are nowhere close to one another in space. The moon, our closest celestial neighbor, is around its average distance from Earth (238,955 miles or 384,400 km) right now. Jupiter resides more than 1,700 times the moon’s distance from Earth. At present, Jupiter lies 4.42 astronomical units (AU) from Earth. One AU = one Earth-sun distance = 92,955,817 miles or 149,597,871 km. Jupiter is currently 5.29 AU from the sun."
2019 Preliminary Tornado Count
"A house made of plastic soda bottles can withstand winds twice as strong as a Category 5 hurricane. Take a look inside."
"Hurricane Barry didn't create as much damage as its predecessors like Katrina or Harvey, but it did serve as a reminder that hurricanes are becoming stronger and more devastating. When the Category 1 storm hit the Louisiana coast on Saturday, about 75,000 homes and businesses lost power. If the winds had picked up, they might have been powerful enough to uproot trees or damage homes. While designing homes to withstand hurricanes often requires extra cash, construction companies are slowly finding new ways to bring hurricane-safe features to the masses. Recently, a Canadian construction firm called JD Composites built a 2,000-square-foot home made of recycled plastic bottles that it says can also withstand Category 5 winds. Take a look inside the sleek (but sound) structure."
"Russia’s permafrost is melting and it could have a devastating global effect"
"An environmental vicious circle is taking hold in Russia and other parts of the Arctic as permafrost – the frozen ground beneath a quarter of the Northern Hemisphere and almost 20% of Earth’s landmass – thaws. Rising temperatures are causing the ice that binds soil, rocks and sand in the ground to disintegrate, setting in motion a process that releases greenhouse gases. Greenhouse gases heat the Earth by absorbing energy and slowing the rate at which it escapes into space – in effect they form a blanket over the Earth. “Permafrost warming has the potential to amplify global climate change,” scientist Dr Boris K Biskaborn of the Alfred Wegener Institute, a polar and marine research organization, writes in an article published in the journal Nature. “When frozen sediments thaw it unlocks soil organic carbon.”
"NASA releases stunning image of ISS crossing in front of the sun"
The photo shows the International Space Station as it orbits the Earth, as it does every 90 minutes. The photo is remarkable because it offers a glimpse of the star at a time when there were no sunspots. In November, astronauts aboard the ISS plan to grow Española chili pepper plants. NASA published a stunning photo showing the International Space Station cross in front of the sun. Regarding the picture, which was captured by Rainee Colacurcio, NASA officials wrote: "Transiting the sun is not very unusual for the ISS, which orbits the Earth about every 90 minutes, but getting one's timing and equipment just right for a great image is rare. Strangely, besides that fake spot, in this recent two-image composite, the sun lacked any real sunspots. The featured picture combines two images — one capturing the space station transiting the sun — and another taken consecutively capturing details of the sun's surface. "The photo is remarkable because it offers a glimpse of the star at a moment when it was devoid of sunspots. As NASA further described: "Sunspots have been rare on the sun since the dawn of the current Solar Minimum, a period of low solar activity. For reasons not yet fully understood, the number of sunspots occurring during both the previous and current solar minima have been unusually low."
"Another Intense Heat Wave May Team Up with Drought in Europe Next Week"
"Severe midsummer dryness is paving the way for a new episode of heat in Europe next week, less than a month after the continent endured its hottest June on record. Models indicate a strong ridge of upper-level high pressure developing over Europe, which may lead to a multiday stretch of temperatures in the 35-40°C (95-104°F) range in many areas. The heat will spread from Spain this coming weekend northeastward into France by early next week and across western and central Europe as the week unfolds. Even London may see temperatures above 30°C (86°F) by late next week. The heat wave of late June set dozens of all-time high temperatures across Europe, a feat all the more amazing for having occurred so early in the summer. Next week’s heat is unlikely to be as seasonally impressive, given that Europe is normally at its hottest from late July into early August. It's still too soon to know where the worst heat will occur and how long the heat wave will last, and this could end up being more of a “normal” midsummer heat wave than a record-smasher. Regardless, the heat will intensify drought conditions that are already causing serious impacts. The parched soil could allow surface temperatures to rise even further than models are projecting. Most of the incoming solar energy will go to heating up the surface rather than evaporating moisture, and computer models do not always fully capture this shift in energy balance."
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