Enhanced Severe Thunderstorm Risk by Afternoon: Hail and Damaging Winds Possible
June 10, 2016 — 9:42am
Significant Severe T-storm Risk Today. NOAA SPC has much of Minnesota in a "slight risk", with an "enhanced" risk of severe storms, large hail, damaging straight-line winds and isolated tornadoes just north and east of the MSP metro area into central Wisconsin.
A Few Tornadoes? With a warm frontal boundary snaking just north of the metro there may be enough low-level wind shear for a few tornadic, supercell thunderstorms this afternoon and evening; the best chance northeast of the Twin Cities.
Timing the Storms. NOAA's HRRR model develops a squall line into the metro area by mid-afternoon. The future radar prediction above is valid at 2 PM, although I suspect storms may initiate a little later in the afternoon. Stay alert for watches and warnings later today.
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Warm & hazy conditions persist today with Air Quality Alerts in place across northern Minnesota due to Canadian Wildfires. Sunday starts dry, but an approaching cool front ignites a few late day T-storms. Monday looks damp and Septemberish. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson
Although many lawns and fields could use a free watering right about now dry weather is the rule Friday and Saturday, the nicer (drier) day of the weekend for outdoor plans. Storms rumble in late Sunday, marking the leading edge of more comfortable weather to start next week. No worries - weather should be warm enough for shorts and T-shirts just in time for the state of the Minnesota State Fair next Thursday.
Actual temperatures have been running (consistently) warmer than model guidance in recent months. Not sure why, but I don't think I'm imagining it. Temperatures trend well above average into Sunday before a correction early next week, with a relatively comfortable kick-off to the Great Minnesota Get Together. T-storms prowl far southern Minnesota today; a better chance of statewide storms by the PM hours on Sunday.
The (slightly cooler) front moved a bit slower than expected, allowing temperatures to surge higher than expected on Tuesday. 91F shortly after noon, making yesterday the 18th day of 90-degree heat so far in 2018. I don't see any more 90s looking out into next week, although we may come close Friday and Saturday. A return to average sounds nice, but many are wondering when we'll get our next statewide dousing - some lawns are beginning to brown out a bit out there.