Enhanced Severe Thunderstorm Risk by Afternoon: Hail and Damaging Winds Possible
June 10, 2016 — 9:42am
Significant Severe T-storm Risk Today. NOAA SPC has much of Minnesota in a "slight risk", with an "enhanced" risk of severe storms, large hail, damaging straight-line winds and isolated tornadoes just north and east of the MSP metro area into central Wisconsin.
A Few Tornadoes? With a warm frontal boundary snaking just north of the metro there may be enough low-level wind shear for a few tornadic, supercell thunderstorms this afternoon and evening; the best chance northeast of the Twin Cities.
Timing the Storms. NOAA's HRRR model develops a squall line into the metro area by mid-afternoon. The future radar prediction above is valid at 2 PM, although I suspect storms may initiate a little later in the afternoon. Stay alert for watches and warnings later today.
Paul Douglas is a nationally respected meteorologist with 35 years of television and radio experience. A serial entrepreneur, Douglas is Senior Meteorologist and Founder of Media Logic Group. Douglas and a team of meteorologists provide weather services for various media and corporate interests at Praedictix. Developers and engineers create unique streams of weather data, imagery and API’s via Aeris Weather. He is co-host of a radio program, weekdays from 3 to 6 p.m. on WCCO Radio. His speaking engagements take him around the Midwest with a message of continuous experimentation and reinvention, no matter what business you’re in. He is the public face of “SAVE”, Suicide Awareness, Voices of Education, based in Bloomington. Send Paul a question.
Well, we got our wish. Many of us wanted to feel warm again, after a February-like April. Mother Nature heard your plaintive cries and turned up the volume a few notches. We should hit or exceed 90F today, Saturday, Sunday and Monday - the hottest Memorial Day since 2006. In fact steamy weather lingers into much of next week; no real relief until a Canadian cool front the first weekend of June. Until then, various degrees of hot and sweaty...
26.1" of snow last month, an early spell of 90s this month. Minnesota's weather is still manic - probably always will be. Time to dig out your summer wardrobe because sweaty weather is here to stay into much of next week with a streak of low 90s possible. In fact today may bring the first 90F of 2018, and severe storms into western Minnesota by afternoon and evening.
Looking back many of us will consider this the good 'ol days - back when temperatures were comfortable - back when neighbors weren't whining about the dew point. A July-like spell of heat and humidity is coming, and by the weekend heat indices may be well into the 90s. You wanted summer? You earned a real summer. And it's coming.
Today was a little on the cool side, although the observed high of 71F is average for May 21. A big shout-out to volunteer weather observers who collect data for NOAA NCDC's COOP program - details in the blog. A hot front is brewing for late week and the weekend. Yes, it may be good time for holiday weekend plans. There, I just jinxed the forecast.
A stray shower is possible today, but amounts will be light - enough to settle the dust. Temperatures & dew points creep up as the week goes on; more numerous T-storms Wednesday into Friday. Check the blog for more details. -Todd Nelson