Severe Storm Watch East Metro until 10 pm (main threat pushing quickly into Wisconsin)
May 31, 2013 — 5:56pm
Severe Risk. NWS Doppler at 4:13 pm shows the strongest storms pushing rapidly east of the St. Croix and Mississippi Rivers, Severe Storm Warnings posted from Durand to Eau Claire.
Severe Storm Watch until 10 PM. SPC has issued a Severe Storm Watch for St. Paul's suburbs, far eastern Minnesota and much of Wisconsin until 10 pm. Large hail and damaging winds are possible with these storms. 1"+ hail covered the ground near Roseville and Arden Hills earlier this afternoon. Details from SPC:
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 261 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 235 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN EASTERN MINNESOTA WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN LAKE SUPERIOR * EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL 1000 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF GRAND MARAIS MINNESOTA TO 45 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF LONEROCK WISCONSIN. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 260... DISCUSSION...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STRENGTHENING OVER EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI...IN A REGION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR. MULTICELL TO A FEW SUPERCELL STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN WI WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GREATEST. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22025.
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Look at the bright side, we could be tracking tornadic thunderstorms....or flash flooding...or river flooding...or wildfires. A little slush won't hurt anyone on Monday, and whatever falls should be gone by Tuesday. 75-150 miles north and west of MSP may be a different story with enough snow to shovel and scrape, delighting locals! Hard to believe but we should be in the 60s next weekend as spring stages a comeback. Whew...
Oh brother. The entire weather blog should be a series of apologetic disclaimers today. We still don't know what we don't know, but models continue to suggest accumulating slush late in the weekend, especially Sunday night when we lose the sun's infrared radiation. No problems today; the sun may even peek through. Saturday looks tolerable, but Sunday will be a good Netflix-day with a cold rain mixing with or even changing to wet snow late. Monday, the 1st day of May, could bring plowable amounts of snow to portions of Minnesota. Where those heavy snow bands will set up is anyone's guess right now. Stay tuned.
Well, at least you won't be distracted by blue sky and chirping birds anytime soon - easier to focus on work, school and errands. Flurries may provide a mild jolt today; models still hinting at accumulating slush by Monday (but it's wildly premature to speculate about amounts). Spring fever returns in roughly one week. That's the thing about spring - across most of the USA it's taken as a foregone conclusion. Here in Minnesota, not so much. Minnesotans earn their springs.
We're paying a steep price for last weekend. I grant you it was very nice, especially Saturday, but I would have taken 10 degrees off the afternoon high temperature just to avoid saying the s-word again. Then again, July is the only month where snow hasn't been reported somewhere in Minnesota. Share that with a friend if you're hoping for shocked silence.
Monday turned out a little nicer than expected: low 70s with glimmers of sun. I think it sprinkled for 3 minutes or so. Not bad at all. We got all that "nice weather" out of the way, now it's time for a little payback, served runny and cold. Just rain today into much of Wednesday, but enough cold air may mix down for a slushy mix Wednesday PM, even an inch of snow close to the MSP metro by Thursday morning. Spring in Minnesota is a cool, cruel mistress. You'll see.