Recapping May

May 2018 will go down as the second warmest May on record in the Twin Cities, with an average temperature of 67.8F, 8.7F degrees above average. Record highs were set on the 28th and 29th, and that high of 100F on the 28th was the earliest first 100F on record. We saw a total of six days with a high of 90+, which happen consecutively (24th through the 29th) is now the longest stretch of 90F+ in May on record and is tied for the 22nd longest 90F+ degree streak on record for the Twin Cities.

We were below average in the precipitation department during the month of May, however, in the Twin Cities, with just under 3" of rain falling. We had two days where over at least a half an inch of rain fell, which coincidentally was at the start and end of our 90F+ streak (the 24th and the 29th).

According to Mark Seeley, May 2018 will go down as the third warmest May in Minnesota history only behind 1977 and 1934. As we take a look at the average temperature rankings by climate district, May 2018 will go down as a top ten warmest May across all the districts across the state. The highest ranking is in southeast Minnesota, where the month will go down as the fourth warmest May. Most climate disticts in the upper Midwest also saw at least a top ten warmest May on record, with many areas from the Central Plains into the Ohio Valley ranking in the top three.

The heaviest precipitation fell across southern Minnesota in May, with over 5" reported in Rochester (which is the 20th wettest May on record for them). Considerably less precipitation fells across parts of central and northern Minnesota, with areas like St. Cloud, Hibbing and Brainerd not even picking up 2" of rain last month.

While most areas of the state saw below average rainfall, both southern and far northern Minnesota ended up with precipitation values that were above average.


Drier Weather Sunday - 80s Make A Return This Week
By D.J. Kayser, filling in for Paul Douglas

While we may never enjoy rain on a weekend, yesterday’s rain across Minnesota will end up helping out the drought situation. As of the Thursday Drought Monitor update, 55.7% of the state was considered “abnormally dry” - mainly concentrated across northern and central Minnesota. With our recent rain across the state this past week, I would expect to see a decrease in the drought numbers later this week.

Today will be a much drier day for any outdoor activities. The only chance of rain will be in northern Minnesota this morning; otherwise sunshine will make a return across the state. The main concern will be blustery northwest winds, at times gusting over 30 mph.

Our next thunder chance doesn’t appear on the map for southern Minnesota until Tuesday Night and Wednesday. Highs will be in the 80s this upcoming work week in the Twin Cities, and long range forecasts continue to show warmer than average highs through mid-June. Enjoy being able to have your windows open today, as it looks like A.C. units will be running overtime soon.


Extended Twin Cities Forecast

SUNDAY: Mainly sunny and breezy. High 73. Low 57. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NW 15-25 mph.
MONDAY: 80s make a return. Sunny skies. High 82. Low 60. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind W 5-15 mph.
TUESDAY: A few passing clouds. Overnight storms. High 83. Low 62. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Scattered storms and humid. High 87. Low 63. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.
THURSDAY: Mix of sun and clouds. High 83. Low 62. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NE 5-10 mph.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Isolated shower chance. High 82. Low 62. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind SE 5-15 mph.
SATURDAY: A few scattered storms. High 82. Low 63. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind SE 10-15 mph.


This Day in Weather History
June 3rd

1955: Seven people are killed on Lake Traverse when their boat is overturned by strong winds from a thunderstorm.


Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
June 3rd

Average High: 75F (Record: 92F set in 1923)
Average Low: 55F (Record: 34F set in 1945)
Average Precipitation: 0.13" (Record: 1.71" set in 1914)


Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
June 3rd

Sunrise: 5:28 AM
Sunset: 8:54 PM

*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 25 minutes and 29 seconds
*Daylight Gained Since Yesterday: ~1 minutes and 17 seconds

*Earliest Sunrise: June 13th-17th (5:25 AM)
*Next Sunset Of 9:00 PM Or Later: June 12th (9:00 PM)
*Day With Most Daylight? June 21st (Daylight Length: 15:36:49)


Minnesota Weather Outlook

Sunday will be a touch warmer across most of the state, with highs climbing into the 70s across central and southern Minnesota. Highs will remain in the 60s across most of northern Minnesota, with a few 50s along the North Shore and in parts of the Arrowhead. A few showers may be left over in northern Minnesota from our departing system during the morning hours, otherwise we'll see mainly sunny skies across a good portion of the state.

These temperatures on Sunday will be within a few degrees of average across most of the state.

Sunday will be a blustery day, however, as wind gusts are expected to top 30 mph out of the northwest across parts of central and southern Minnesota.

Summarizing the forecast for the Twin Cities Sunday, temperatures will start out in the mid 50s during the morning hours, climbing to the low 70s during the afternoon. Winds will be strong - sustained out of the northwest at 10-20 mph, but gusting above 30 mph at times.

We do see warmer temperatures return as we head into the work week, with highs mainly in the 80s. The warmest day will be Wednesday, which would be our only shot at seeing a 90 degree temperature this week (though that doesn't appearly likely to happen at the moment). Warm weather continues into the second week of June as well, and next Sunday and Monday do feature days that could make a run at 90 according to some models.

Out next storm chance will be Tuesday Night into Wednesday, and most models bring in at least the chance of a half an inch of rain with that system. More rain chances could exist late next week, but are in question at the moment depending on the track of the actual systems.


National Weather Forecast

As we head into Sunday, a barely moving low pressure center will continue to sit off the Mid-Atlantic coast, bringing the region (including Washington D.C.) more chances of showers and storms. A frontal system will continue to move south and east through the Ohio Valley and Southern Plains into the eastern United States, bringing the chance of some showers and storms along with it. Subtropical moisture will bring the chance of showers and storms across parts of the central and southern Rockies, especially during the peak heating of the day. Meanwhile, a low pressure system will bring the chance of some rain to parts of the Northwest.

Through Thursday morning, the heaviest rain across the nation will be across the Mid-Atlantic, where 2-4"+ of rain could fall through the entire weekend (including what has already fell as of the time this blog was posted). Several areas across the central and eastern United States could see at least 1-2" of rain through the middle of next week. Meanwhile, a good portion of the western states will remain dry.

Excessive heat will also be a concern Sunday and Monday across parts of the Southwest, including Phoenix. Highs are expected to be between 105-113 both days. Due to this, an Excessive Heat Warning is in effect.

Here's a look at expected highs across southern California and Arizona Sunday. Places like Phoenix will see highs in the mid to upper 100s. Meanwhile, Tucson, AZ, could see a record high.


Cold Weather Made It Tough For Famous Footwear To Sell Sandals In Q1

Famous Footwear isn't the only complany blaming cold weather for sagging sales results, as both Dollar General and Lowe's have done the same in the past couple weeks. More from Footwear News: "Americans hoping for a burst of sunshine as frigid temperatures lingered into March and April weren’t the only ones feeling the winter blues.Caleres Inc., parent of Famous Footwear and brands such as Sam Edelman, Franco Sarto and Via Spiga, said Thursday that its sales of sandals were adversely affected during the first quarter as spring made a late arrival.“At Famous, like most in the retail space, we battled unseasonably cold weather early in the quarter,” president, chairman and CEO Diane Sullivan told investors during a call Thursday. “For February, comps were down 4 percent, then the trend improved slightly in March to flat.""

Climate change increasing risks of lightning-ignited fires, study finds

More from "Fires ignited by lightning have and will likely continue to increase across the Mediterranean and temperate regions in the Southern Hemisphere under a warmer climate, according to a new study co-led by a Portland State University researcher.  The study, published online in May in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, examined the observed and forecasted relationship between lightning-ignited fires, rising temperatures across the Southern Hemisphere and natural climate variability in three leading climate drivers that affect weather worldwide: El Niño-La Niña, the Indian Ocean Dipole and the Southern Annular Mode.  El Niño-La Niña, known as ENSO, is the periodic warming and cooling periods of the equatorial eastern and central Pacific Ocean that affects the world's climate the most. The Indian Ocean Dipole, or IOD, is a similar ocean-atmospheric phenomenon characterized by changes in sea-surface temperatures between the eastern and western part of the Indian Ocean, while the Southern Annular Mode, or SAM, describes the north-south movement of the westerly wind belt that circles Antarctica and carries moisture to the southwest corners of all the Southern Hemisphere continents."

These fish are at the heart of California's water debate. But extinction could be close

More from the Sacramento Bee: "As a young biologist in the 1970s, Peter Moyle remembers towing nets behind boats in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and catching 50 to 100 translucent, finger-length smelt in a matter of minutes.  Moyle doesn't see those days coming back.  "I think extinction is imminent the way things are going," said Moyle, a prominent UC Davis fisheries biologist.  State biologists have found hardly any Delta smelt in their sampling nets in the past two years. Consecutive surveys in late April and early May found no smelt at all. Those results don't mean the smelt have completely vanished. But biologists say the California Department of Fish and Wildlife surveys provide disappointing evidence that the critically endangered fish are edging closer to extinction. The hope was the fish would show signs of recovery after three comparatively wet winters, including the drought-ending record rains of 2017."


Thanks for checking in and have a great Sunday! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!

 - D.J. Kayser

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Cool, Showery Saturday Gives Way to Warming Trend Next Week

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Warmer Temps And Bouts of Storm Return This Week