Starting to Look Like Fall
I was out and about on Friday and happened to see this maple tree below, which is already showing hints of orange and red. With the blue sky, it sure was a pretty scene!

MN DNR Fall Color Update
According to the MN DNR fall color map, much of the state is starting to see some type of fall folliage. Sure, it's not much, but changes are happening. Keep in mind that the typical peak in the Twin Cities isn't for another month or so, but folks along the international border could see peak color within the next 2 to 3 weeks.  
Typical Peak Color Across the State
According to the MN DNR, peak color typically arrives across the far northern part of the state in mid/late September, while folks in the Twin Cities have to wait until late September/mid October. It's hard to believe, but fall colors will be here before you know it!

Twin Cities Weekend Outlook
The forecast for the Twin Cities metro looks pretty chilly this weekend with high temps only warming into the 60s. Areas of rain will begin to develop around midday Saturday in the metro and will continue off and on through Sunday. Another storm system will move through the region Monday, which will bring another round of showers and storms to the metro.
Weather Outlook Saturday
Here's a look at the weather for Saturday, which looks fairly chilly for the early part of September. In fact, it'll feel more like mid-to-late September. A few locations up north may not even make it out of the 50s, which will be nearly -10F to -15F below average. Meanwhile, the Twin Cities may not warm to 70F, which will be nearly -5F to -10F below average.

Weather Outlook AM Saturday to AM Monday

Here's the weather outlook for the weekend, which looks a little soggy across parts of the southern half of the state. While it doesn't look like a washout, it definitely looks like more of a nuisance rain that will stick around for both Saturday and Sunday. 
Precipitation Potential Through AM Monday

According to NOAA's NDFD data, this weekend's rain potential looks to be mainly confined to the southern half of the state and especially along and south of the Minnesota River Valley. Some spots there could see nearly 0.50" to 1" of rain, while the Twin Cities may only see a couple of tenths of an inch of rain through the weekend.


Wet Week Ahead

According to NOAA's WPC, the 7 day precipitation forecast suggests a fairly active week ahead. Note that much of the region could be dealing with several inches of rainfall by Friday of next week. With that said, it looks like we will continue to add to our already very impressive 2019 precipitation stats. Stay tuned.


Can Dogday Cicadas Forecast the First Frosts of Fall? 

I don't know about you, but I've been hearing a lot of buzzing from my backyard trees lately. The loud buzzing is coming from our friendly dog day cicadas, which are pretty common in late July and August. The old adage states that when you hear the first buzz of a dog day cicada, then frost is only 6 weeks away! Here's an excerpt from Yesterday Island regarding nature's thermometer: "Insects are an important part of summer and of our collective impression of the passing seasons. When I reflect upon a quintessential summer, I think of June bugs, grasshoppers, butterflies, perhaps on more cynical days, deer flies, mosquitoes, wasps…back to good days…fireflies, moths, and as the dog days of summer come, the cicada. For the past two to three weeks we have been able to hear the rasping,  buzzing sound of cicadas emanating from trees from downtown to ‘Sconset. Often heard but rarely seen, these harbingers of late summer warm weather days remind us that fall is around the corner. According to folk legend, when you hear the first song of the dog-day cicadas, it means there’s just six weeks until frost. While this may not be a precise predictor, there is some merit to the claim. Dog-day cicadas, as their name implies, appear during the long, hot summer days of late July and August."
3rd Wettest Start to Any Year on Record at the MSP Airport
It certainly has been a wet go of things across the Upper Midwest this year. In fact, the Twin Cities has had 31.48" of liquid precipitation this year, which is nearly 9" above average for the year thus far. Interestingly, this is the 3rd wettest start to any year on record (through September 6th). Also note that the average precipitation for the entire year is 30.61", so we've actually surpassed our average yearly precipitation amount at MSP already this year with several months of 2019 yet to go! 

Fall Ragweed Allergies

AACHOO!! Fall allergy sufferers are having some issues now that the the fall allergy season is in full swing. Take a look at the forecast through the middle part of next week, which suggests high pollen counts continuing over the next several days. The good news is that there appears to be cooler and somewhat soggy weather moving in across the region this weekend, which may help to keep pollen levels a bit lower.


"What Is a Ragweed Allergy?"

"Ragweed pollen is one of the most common causes of seasonal allergies in the United States. Many people have an adverse immune response when they breathe in the pollen. Normally, the immune system defends the body against harmful invaders, such as viruses and bacteria, to ward off illnesses. In people with ragweed allergies, the immune system mistakes ragweed pollen as a dangerous substance. This causes the immune system to produce chemicals that fight against the pollen, even though it’s harmless. The reaction leads to a variety of irritating symptoms, such as sneezing, running nose, and itchy eyes. Approximately 26 percent of Americans have a ragweed allergy. The allergy is unlikely to go away once it has developed. However, symptoms can be treated with medications and allergy shots. Making certain lifestyle changes may also help relieve the symptoms associated with ragweed allergies."

See more from HERE:


"Climate Change Is Going to Make Ragweed Allergies Even Worse, Study Finds"

"There’s no shortage of horrible things that will become more common in the near future due to climate change, like coastal flooding, extreme weather, and disease-causing ticks, to name a few. But new research published Thursday in PLOS-One adds another annoyance to the list: Allergy-causing ragweed. The common ragweed, or Ambrosia artemisiifolia as it’s formally called, is a voracious plant known for quickly overtaking whatever environment it’s suited to inhabit. The plant grows annually through the warmer parts of the year in the U.S. Importantly for us, it’s also an abundant source of pollen, making it one of the leading triggers of hay fever and asthma. Though native to parts of North America, ragweed has invaded much of Europe, Asia, and other areas with relatively temperate weather, including some of the Southern United States. Given ragweed’s love of warmer temperatures, scientists have feared that climate change has and will continue to help it spread further. There’s already research suggesting that this is happening in Europe, but the authors of this latest study say theirs is the first to consider the future of ragweed in North America."

See more from Gizmodo HERE:


"Phenology: August 21st, 2019"

If you've got a spare moment, have a listen to this wonderful podcast from John Latimer, a resident phenologist in northern Minnesota on KAXE. John is very knowledeable in the outdoor world and how certain events in nature are related to changes in the weather and climate. Here's the latest phenology report from last week: "Phenology is the biological nature of events as they relate to climate.  Each week in our Phenology Talkback segment we hear from listeners who have been paying attention to nature. John Latimer takes a close look at the blooms and changes happening while considering how the timing measures up to past years in his Phenology Report. This week in our talkbacks we heard from Al in Hibbing who wondered about a black swallowtail caterpillar he saw this week.  Dave from Remer was concerned about milkweed plants he noticed that had few or no pods on them and a few people saw large flocks of common nighthawks."

US Drought Monitor

According to the latest US Drought Monitor (updated on September 3rd), much of the state is still drought free! Thanks to significant precipitation so far this year, much of us have had very little to worry about in terms of being too dry. However, in recent weeks, it certianly has been dry in a few locations. Lawns and gardens have been a bit parched as of late, so a little bit of rain on Saturday did help where it fell.


2019 Yearly Precipitation So Far...

2019 has been a pretty wet year across much of the Upper Midwest. In fact, many locations are several inches above average precipitation, some even in the double digits above average like Sioux Falls, Huron and Rapid City, SD as well as Rochester, MN. Interestingly, Rochester is at its 2nd wettest start to the year on record with nearly 39" of liquid and if it didn't rain or snow the rest of the year there, it would be the 16th wettest year ever in recorded history. The Twin Cities is at its 3rd wettest start to the year on record with a surplus of +8.76".

Dorian Made Landfall Over Cape Hatteras This Morning - Will Start To Push Away From The United States Today
Praedictix Briefing: Friday morning, September 6th, 2019
  • Hurricane Dorian made landfall Friday at 8:35 AM EDT over Cape Hatteras with sustained winds of 90 mph. The system continues to move off to the northeast around 14 mph. This motion will start to move Dorian away from the eastern United States later today.
  • A Flash Flood Emergency was issued this morning for portions of the Outer Banks as rapid water rises were occurring on the eastern portion of Pamlico Sound. Over 220,000 power customers did not have power in portions of North Carolina this morning, along with ~140,000 in South Carolina and ~50,000 in Virginia.
  • Even though Dorian will be moving away from the United States, impacts will continue to batter portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast into Saturday.
  • Storm surge flooding will continue to be possible, especially at high tide, along the Mid-Atlantic coast today. For some areas, the storm surge could be as high at 7 feet.
  • Strong, destructive winds will continue to impact eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia today, potentially topping hurricane-force at times. Strong wind gusts up to 60 mph will also be possible tonight into Saturday across portions of eastern Massachusetts.
  • Heavy rain of at least 2-5” will continue to fall in the Mid-Atlantic, leading to potential totals of up to 15” in portions of eastern North Carolina. This will lead to flash flooding.
  • We are also tracking Tropical Storm Faxai and Typhoon Lingling which could have impacts this over the next several days in Tokyo and Seoul, respectively.

Dorian Makes Landfall. At 8:35 AM EDT this morning Dorian made landfall over Cape Hatteras, NC, with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph. This is the fourth landfall that Dorian has made, with the other three occurring in the Bahamas.

Dorian As Of Friday Morning. Dorian has continued to be near the Outer Banks of North Carolina this morning. As of the 10 AM EDT update from the National Hurricane Center, Dorian had sustained winds of 90 mph. The center the storm was located 25 miles northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and was moving to the northeast at around 14 mph.

Flash Flood Emergency. Dorian has caused rapid water rises on the eastern portion of Pamlico Sound this morning, and water levels were reported at historic levels in Ocracoke. Due to these water rises, a Flash Flood Emergency was issued for portions of Hyde and Dare Counties in the Outer Banks, including locations like Hatteras and Avon.

Dorian Track. Dorian will continue to accelerate off to the northeast over the next couple of days, bringing the center of the storm southeast of New England tonight into Saturday, and then across Nova Scotia late Saturday into Saturday Night. Dorian will continue to have hurricane-force winds along with it even after it becomes post-tropical tomorrow out in the Atlantic.

Hurricane And Tropical Storm Alerts. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings remain in place this morning across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, with Watches in place across portions of Canada. In coastal areas, they are in place for the following areas:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Surf City to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nova Scotia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island DE
* Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA
* Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands
* Fundy National Park to Shediac
* Francois to Boat Harbour

Potential Peak Wind Gusts In The Carolinas. As Dorian continues to push away from the Outer Banks today, we could still destructive wind gusts that top hurricane-force (74+mph) across portions of eastern North Carolina and extreme southeastern Virginia. These wind gusts will subside as the system moves farther out into the Atlantic.

Potential Peak Wind Gusts Across Cape Cod. The strongest winds across Cape Cod will occur tonight into Saturday when we could see sustained winds of 35-45 mph with gusts to 60 mph. This could cause some tree damage, blow around objects that aren’t secured, and bring the potential of power outages. Wind gusts will be stronger the farther southeast you are toward Nantucket.

Storm Surge Warnings. We will continue to watch the threat of a dangerous surge of water inland to areas that are typically dry, especially if the surge of water coincides with high tide, in association with Dorian today across portions of the Mid-Atlantic coast. Due to the potential of storm surge flooding, Storm Surge Warnings are in place from Salter Path, NC, to Poquoson, VA, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers, and Hampton Roads. If the peak water rises do coincide with high tide, we could see the following storm surge from Dorian in the eastern United States:

Salter Path to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 7 ft
Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft

Additional Rain Potential. Rain will continue to fall today across portions of the Mid-Atlantic in association with Dorian. The heaviest amounts will be in eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia, where at least an additional 2-5” could fall through tonight. Here are overall expected rainfall totals through Saturday according to the NHC:

Northeastern North Carolina...Additional 3 to 8 inches, isolated storm totals 15 inches.
Far southeast Virginia...3 to 8 inches.
Extreme southeastern New England...2 to 4 inches.
Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island...3 to 5 inches.
Newfoundland...1 to 2 inches.

Flash Flood Threat Continues. The heavy rain associated with Dorian today will still bring the potential of major, potentially life-threatening flash flooding across portions of northeastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia. Due to this, a High Risk of flash flooding is in place, including the Norfolk area.

Tropical Storm Faxai and Typhoon Lingling. Out in the Western Pacific, we are also tracking two systems as we head into the weekend. Tropical Storm Faxai is slowly gaining strength and is expected to become a typhoon this weekend. Before the storm approaches Tokyo late this weekend into early next week, the system could contain winds up to around 90 mph before it starts to weaken as it moves away from Japan. The center of the system is now expected to move east of Tokyo versus yesterday, but strong winds and heavy rain will still be possible in Tokyo later Sunday into Monday. We are also tracking Typhoon Lingling, which had winds of around 115 mph as of Friday Night. This storm will continue northward this weekend, slowly weakening until it makes landfall in North Korea Saturday. As the center of the storm moves west of Seoul Saturday local time, winds could gust up to 55 mph during the midday and afternoon hours with rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches.

D.J. Kayser, Meteorologist, Praedictix

National Precipitation Since January 1st
Take a look at the precipitaiton across the nation since January 1st and note how many locations are above average so far this year. Some of the wettest locations have been in the Central US, where St. Louis is nearly 15" above average and off to its 2nd wettest start to any year on record. It's also nice to see folks in California are still dealing with a precipitation surplus thanks to a very wet start to 2019. However, the last several weeks have been very dry there.
US Drought Monitor
According to the US Drought Monitor, there a few locations across the country that are a bit dry, but there doesn't appear to be anything widespread or significant. However, areas in Alaska and the Pacific Northwest seem to a little bit more dry than others. We've also seen an uptick in the drought across the Southern Plains where severe and even extreme drought conditions have been popping up. 
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, weather conditions will be wetter than average across much of the central and eastern US with below average precipitation chances settling in across the Intermountain=west and parts of the Highs Plains.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC, the temperature outlook as we head into the middle part of the month looks warmer than average across much of the nation, including the Upper Midwest. 


Extended Temperature Outlook for the Twin Cities

Here's the temperature outlook for the MSP Airport through the 3rd week of September, which shows up and down temps over the next couple/few weeks. It certainly looks chilly this weekend and early next week, but midweek temps could soar back into the 80s, which would be the first 80 degree high temp in the Twin Cities since August 20th. According to the European model (ECMWF) we could get up close to 90F by Thursday!


Warmest September Temps on Record at MSP

Here are the warmest temps on record at MSP for the month of September. Note that there has only been (1) 100 degree day, which happened back in 1931. Highs in the 90s are certainly more common and have happened quite a few times. In fact, last year in 2018 we had a high of 92 in September and in 2017 there was a 94 degree high temp. Since 2000, there have been (9) 90 high temps during the month of September. 


Dorian Fades. Cool and Somewhat Soggy Weekend
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.

Hurricane Dorian will continue tracking northeast away from the US today, but outer bands will impact eastern Massachusetts and Maine as it quickly approaches Nova Scotia later this afternoon.

Dorian was an incredible storm that reached category 5 strength as it approached and stalled over the Bahamas for about a day. Winds were equivalent to an EF-4 tornado that caused catastrophic damage and even fatalities.

Dorian will rank as one of strongest and most intense 'landfalling' Atlantic hurricanes on record with maximum sustained winds of 185mph a central pressure of 910 millibars. The "Labor Day" Hurricane still holds the top spot as the strongest and most intense 'landfalling' Atlantic Hurricane on record with sustained winds of 185mph and a central pressure of 892 millibars when it ravaged Florida back in 1935.

Closer to home, cool, cloudy and somewhat soggy conditions settle in this weekend. Spits of on and off rain will impact parts of southern Minnesota, including tailgaters prepping for tomorrow's Vikes game. Let's go!

Extended Forecast

SATURDAY: Clouds increase, PM showers. Winds: E 8-13. High: 69.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Areas of rain, perhaps a clap of thunder. Winds: Calm. Low: 52.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy, few showers. Winds: E 7-12. High: 63.

MONDAY: Still cool. Rain and rumbles likely. Winds: ESE 10-15. Wake-up: 56. High: 67.

TUESDAY: Lingering showers up north. Winds: W 5-10. Wake-up: 62. High: 80.

WEDNESDAY: Slight chance of PM storms. Winds: E 8-13. Wake-up: 60. High: 75.

THURSDAY: Scattered showers and storms. Some heavy. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 59 High: 76.

FRIDAY: Windy and cooler. Spits of PM rain. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 60 High: 70.

This Day in Weather History
September 7th

1990: Strong winds and hail up to 2 inches was reported in Swift, Douglas, Stevens, Kandiyohi, Meeker, Stearns, and Waseca Counties.

1986: A touch of winter is felt in northern MN, with lows of 20 degrees at Embarrass and 30 at Duluth.

1922: The fifth consecutive day of 90 degrees or above occurs in the Minneapolis area.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis
September 7th

Average High: 75F (Record: 98F set in 1976)
Average Low: 56F (Record: 40F set in 1956)

Record Rainfall: 2.16" set in 1964
Record Snowfall: NONE

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
September 7th

Sunrise: 6:42am
Sunset: 7:39pm

Hours of Daylight: ~12 hours & 57 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 3 minutes & 3 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 21st): ~ 2 hours & 40 minutes

Moon Phase for September 7th at Midnight
2.2 Days Since First Quarter Moon


What's in the Night Sky?

"Look for the planet Saturn in the vicinity of the moon as darkness falls on September 7 and 8, 2019. Saturn is actually a bit brighter than a 1st-magnitude star, but this world still might be hard to see in the moon’s glare. If so, try placing your finger over the obtrusive waxing gibbous moon for a better view of Saturn, the most distant world that you can easily see with the eye alone. For all the world, the moon is seen in between Saturn and the king planet Jupiter on September 7. Below, we show you a more expanded view of the sky that includes both Saturn and Jupiter. Although the chart is especially made for mid-northern North American latitudes, you can still find Saturn rather easily from anywhere worldwide. Look first for Jupiter – by far the brightest “star” in the evening sky, and that “star” on the other side of the moon on September 7 will be Saturn."

See more from Earth Sky HERE:

Average Tornadoes By State in September
According to NOAA, the number of tornadoes in September is quite a bit  across much of the nation, especially across the southern US. However, folks across the Plains and Upper Midwest still see (on average) a fair amount of tornadoes. Note that Minnesota typically sees 2 tornadoes, which is much lower than our average peak of in June (15). 
2019 Preliminary Tornado Count
Here's the 2019 preliminary tornado count across the nation, which shows 1,440 tornadoes since the beginning of the year. May was a very active month and produced several hundred tornadoes across the Central uS and across parts of the Ohio Valley.

2019 Preliminary Tornado Count

Here's a look at how many tornadoes there have been across the country so far this year. The preliminary count through September 4th suggests that there have been a total of 1,440 which is above the 2005-2015 short term average of 1195. Interestingly, this has been the busiest tornado season since 2011, when nearly 1,760 tornadoes were reported.
Saturday Weather Outlook
High Temps on Saturday will be quite chilly across the northern tier of the nation with readings nearly -5F to -10F degrees below average. Meanwhile, the southern tier of the nation will be running nearly +5F to +10F above average with some of the warmest temps in the Southern Plains and the Desert Southwest. Interestingly, Dallas has had (44) +100F high temps during the month of September and the warmest was 111F set back 2000.
National Weather Outlook
Here's the weather outlook through the end of the weekend and into early next week, which shows Dorian finally moving away from the East Coast. Things get pretty busy across parts of the Intermountain-West and Upper Midwest as we head through the next few days. Areas of storms and locally heavy rain will be likely in these areas.

Heavy Ranifall Potential
Here's the 7-day precipitation forecast from NOAA's WPC, which suggests heavy rain finally moving away from the East Coast as Hurricane Dorian finally fades. The other more notable area of heavy rain will move into the Upper Midwest where several inches of rain can't be ruled out through the end of next week. 
"Ocean Heat Wave Off U.S. West Coast Could Badly Disrupt Marine Life, Scientists Say"
"Federal scientists said Thursday they are monitoring a new ocean heat wave off the U.S. West Coast, a development that could badly disrupt marine life including salmon, whales and sea lions. The expanse of unusually warm water stretches from Alaska to California, researchers with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday. It resembles a similar heat wave about five years ago that was blamed for poorer survival rates for young salmon, more humpback whales becoming entangled in fishing gear as they hunted closer to shore, and an algae bloom that shut down crabbing and clamming. “Given the magnitude of what we saw last time, we want to know if this evolves on a similar path,” said Chris Harvey, a research scientist at the Northwest Fisheries Science Center. NOAA Fisheries said the water has reached temperatures more than 5 degrees Fahrenheit above average. It remains to be seen whether this heat wave dissipates more quickly than the last one, the agency said."

"Why All the Consequences of Climate Change Can Look So Different"
"The term climate change is often used interchangeably with global warming. But while overall global temperatures are warming, the effects of climate change are not limited to hotter temperatures. (In fact, some locations are forecasted to get cooler.) A historically destructive wildfire season plagued California, while heavy storms set last July’s rainfall records on the East Coast of the US. That’s not to mention 2018’s hurricane season. Understanding the underlying statistics can help explain why all the repercussions of climate change can look so different. Last July was a key example of this kind of variability: record-setting highs across the globe were coupled with devastating extreme weather events like monsoons in India and floodingin South Carolina. Imagine climate as a bell curve, where the height on the curve indicates how often something occurs. Natural things often have this shape, called a normal distribution — examples include adult height, the dimensions of almonds, and proteins found in human blood are all roughly normally distributed. This means that more common values tend to be closer to the average (also called the mean), while much larger and much smaller values are less numerous. For example, the mean height for men is 5’9”, so it’s more likely for men to be between 5’6” and 6’0” tall than it is to meet someone who is 7’ tall."

"Tiny NASA satellite gets fascinating 3D peek inside Hurricane Dorian"
"We've seen Hurricane Dorian from inside the eye, from satellites and looking down from the International Space Station. A tiny experimental NASA weather satellite has now given us a fascinating view from under the hurricane's hood. Tempest-D is a CubeSat roughly the size of a box of cereal. This inexpensive satellite is on a demonstration mission to show if it can track storms. If successful, it could set the stage for launching a series of low-cost CubeSats that can follow storms across the globe. The satellite shows us the layers inside Dorian in 3D. "The CubeSat used its miniaturized radio-wave-based instrument to see through the clouds, revealing different depths of the hurricane with areas with heavy rainfall and moisture being pulled into the storm," NASA said in a statement on Wednesday. NASA shared an animated version of Tempest-D's data, giving an unusual perspective on the hurricane."

"We Mapped All The Fires That Burned In The Amazon In August"
"There have been more than 90,000 fires throughout the Amazon rainforest in 2019, according to Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research (INPE). In August, smoke from the burns blackened the sky in cities as distant as São Paulo and caught the world’s attention. A spike in deforestation is in part to blame, as farmers have cleared land for livestock, cultivation, and development, encouraged by Brazil’s far-right president, Jair Bolsonaro, and his campaign promises. The number of fires observed in the rainforest have been trending downward after the early 2000s, when deforestation was rampant. But 2019 has seen more fires compared to recent years, and August saw a spike ahead of the annual season when fires are typically more frequent: The state of Amazonas had 11,412 fires in August alone, compared to 16,587 in all of 2018. Across the Amazon overall last month, there were more than 66,000 fires, according to NASA."

"Let’s be grateful for NOAA’s Hurricane Dorian forecasting, but let’s make it better | Editorial"
"Here’s a banality you hear fairly often: The government can’t do anything right. Here’s something the government did pretty well in recent days: Forecasting Dorian. We can already hear the howls of protest from the crowd that thinks a storm’s path ought to be set in stone from the moment it forms. They’re disappointed Dorian didn’t get shredded by passing over mountainous Hispaniola on its way toward Florida. Or maybe they’re skeptical because a longer-range forecast at one point showed the scary hurricane coming ashore near West Palm Beach before shifting more to the east (thank goodness). Forecasting isn’t that simple. It’s the opposite of simple. As reported in the Tampa Bay Times, Hurricane Dorian was a tough puzzle to solve. The Bermuda high steering it toward Florida was slowly breaking down, but we haven’t figured out how to monitor and measure that high-pressure system’s changes very well because it’s over the sea, not land. Another complicating factor was that Dorian got really powerful really fast, and that can alter the way a hurricane behaves. But forecasters don’t completely understand what causes “rapid intensification” and how that affects a storm. Hurricane forecasting is a complex science that depends in large part on how much we choose to spend on people and technology. For example, researchers have developed disposable but costly drones that can fly into hurricanes and provide much better information than the small sensors that are parachuted into storms."

"NASA astronaut snaps eerie Hurricane Dorian eye close-up"
"The International Space Station is tracking the fierce storm from orbit. Hurricane Dorian has devastated parts of the Bahamas. Meanwhile, astronauts on the International Space Station have been tracking the beast from orbit. One of the latest views is a sobering look straight into Dorian's eye. The hurricane arrived on the islands as a Category 5 monster over the weekend and stalled in place, battering the Bahamas with high winds, rain and catastrophic storm surges. It has now weakened into a Category 2 hurricane but is still wreaking havoc. NASA astronaut Nick Hague shared a close-up of Dorian's deep eye on Monday. "You can feel the power of the storm when you stare into its eye from above. Stay safe everyone!" he tweeted."

"Here’s What It’s Like to Fly Inside the Eye of Hurricane Dorian"
"As Hurricane Dorian pounded the northwest Bahamas as a Category 5 over the weekend causing devastation across parts of the islands, NOAA and the US Air Force captured footage from inside the eye of the monster storm. Air Force Capt. Garrett Black, a meteorologist and hurricane hunter, shared imagery and footage captured while flying through Hurricane Dorian Sunday. In incredible photos and videos, the eye wall of Dorian is visible, with the sun shining brightly through a blue sky. “The storm itself, once we get into the eye, was incredible. It’s one really that I’ve never seen quite to that extent,” Black told CNN. “We had the giant cumulus towers surrounding us that gave us the same effect it felt like we were sitting in the center of a football stadium. Then we could also see the water at the surface and see how calm it was directly below us but could see off in the distance how large the waves were.”

"Here Are Five Ways You Can Help People Impacted By Devastating Hurricanes"
"Hurricane Dorian, which has already killed five people and picked apart 13,000 homes in The Bahamas, is nothing short of a monstrosity. For some time, it was the strongest storm on the planet; it has weakened since then, but – as of Friday afternoon, ET – it is slowly creeping toward and along Florida’s eastern seaboard while expanding in size. Whether it is Dorian or another raging tropical cyclone, past or present, in the Pacific or the Atlantic, it is easy to feel helpless watching them barrel toward people barely able to defend themselves. There are, however, a few things you can do to help – some more obvious, some not – whether you live in the affected regions or you are on the other side of the planet. Here are just a handful. Pets are often left behind, or otherwise perish, during disasters. This isn’t simply a case of callous owners abandoning them without care in order to save their own skins – the reality, as I have previously reported, is far more complex than that. Government-level frameworks for pet rescues are far from rigid, sensible or effective. Researchers, digging into the stories of past disasters, are trying to work out the best ways in which to help owners keep their pets alive when disaster strikes, but it will take time before anything is adopted on a wider level and becomes fully functional and successful."

"Images Of Hurricane Dorian's Devastation In The Bahamas Are Stunning"
"Category 5 Hurricane Dorian stalled over Grand Bahama island for the better part of 24 hours this week, churning up storm surge, dumping two-and-a-half feet of rain and wreaking havoc with wind gusts approaching 200 miles per hour. The storm has claimed at least five lives in the Bahamas and done untold billions in damage, including the mangling of an estimated 13,000 homes. As the storm weakens slightly and finally begins to turn northwestand move away from the Bahamas, Prime Minister Hubert Minnis calls the aftermath "unprecedented." Disturbing video from the island shows that the surging Atlantic has completely overtaken a runway and is lapping at buildings at Freeport's Grand Bahama International Airport."

"Alaska’s Sea Ice Completely Melted for First Time in Recorded History"
"The country of Iceland has held a funeral for its first glacier lost to the climate crisis. The once massive Okjökull glacier, now completely gone, has been commemorated with a plaque that reads: “A letter to the future. Ok is the first Icelandic glacier to lose its status as a glacier. In the next 200 years all our glaciers are expected to follow the same path. This monument is to acknowledge that we know what is happening and what needs to be done. Only you know if we did it.” This reality is reverberating across the globe, far beyond Iceland. Even when no literal funeral is being held, we are, in a sense, witnessing an ongoing funeral for the world we once knew. July was the hottest month ever recorded on Earth since record keeping began in 1880. Nine out of the 10 hottest Julys ever recorded have occurred since 2005, and July was the 43rd consecutive July to register temperatures above the 20th century average."

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