Weather Outlook AM Saturday to AM Monday
According to NOAA's NDFD data, this weekend's rain potential looks to be mainly confined to the southern half of the state and especially along and south of the Minnesota River Valley. Some spots there could see nearly 0.50" to 1" of rain, while the Twin Cities may only see a couple of tenths of an inch of rain through the weekend.
Wet Week Ahead
According to NOAA's WPC, the 7 day precipitation forecast suggests a fairly active week ahead. Note that much of the region could be dealing with several inches of rainfall by Friday of next week. With that said, it looks like we will continue to add to our already very impressive 2019 precipitation stats. Stay tuned.
Can Dogday Cicadas Forecast the First Frosts of Fall?
Fall Ragweed Allergies
AACHOO!! Fall allergy sufferers are having some issues now that the the fall allergy season is in full swing. Take a look at the forecast through the middle part of next week, which suggests high pollen counts continuing over the next several days. The good news is that there appears to be cooler and somewhat soggy weather moving in across the region this weekend, which may help to keep pollen levels a bit lower.
"What Is a Ragweed Allergy?"
"Ragweed pollen is one of the most common causes of seasonal allergies in the United States. Many people have an adverse immune response when they breathe in the pollen. Normally, the immune system defends the body against harmful invaders, such as viruses and bacteria, to ward off illnesses. In people with ragweed allergies, the immune system mistakes ragweed pollen as a dangerous substance. This causes the immune system to produce chemicals that fight against the pollen, even though it’s harmless. The reaction leads to a variety of irritating symptoms, such as sneezing, running nose, and itchy eyes. Approximately 26 percent of Americans have a ragweed allergy. The allergy is unlikely to go away once it has developed. However, symptoms can be treated with medications and allergy shots. Making certain lifestyle changes may also help relieve the symptoms associated with ragweed allergies."
"Climate Change Is Going to Make Ragweed Allergies Even Worse, Study Finds"
"There’s no shortage of horrible things that will become more common in the near future due to climate change, like coastal flooding, extreme weather, and disease-causing ticks, to name a few. But new research published Thursday in PLOS-One adds another annoyance to the list: Allergy-causing ragweed. The common ragweed, or Ambrosia artemisiifolia as it’s formally called, is a voracious plant known for quickly overtaking whatever environment it’s suited to inhabit. The plant grows annually through the warmer parts of the year in the U.S. Importantly for us, it’s also an abundant source of pollen, making it one of the leading triggers of hay fever and asthma. Though native to parts of North America, ragweed has invaded much of Europe, Asia, and other areas with relatively temperate weather, including some of the Southern United States. Given ragweed’s love of warmer temperatures, scientists have feared that climate change has and will continue to help it spread further. There’s already research suggesting that this is happening in Europe, but the authors of this latest study say theirs is the first to consider the future of ragweed in North America."
"Phenology: August 21st, 2019"
US Drought Monitor
According to the latest US Drought Monitor (updated on September 3rd), much of the state is still drought free! Thanks to significant precipitation so far this year, much of us have had very little to worry about in terms of being too dry. However, in recent weeks, it certianly has been dry in a few locations. Lawns and gardens have been a bit parched as of late, so a little bit of rain on Saturday did help where it fell.
2019 Yearly Precipitation So Far...
2019 has been a pretty wet year across much of the Upper Midwest. In fact, many locations are several inches above average precipitation, some even in the double digits above average like Sioux Falls, Huron and Rapid City, SD as well as Rochester, MN. Interestingly, Rochester is at its 2nd wettest start to the year on record with nearly 39" of liquid and if it didn't rain or snow the rest of the year there, it would be the 16th wettest year ever in recorded history. The Twin Cities is at its 3rd wettest start to the year on record with a surplus of +8.76".
- Hurricane Dorian made landfall Friday at 8:35 AM EDT over Cape Hatteras with sustained winds of 90 mph. The system continues to move off to the northeast around 14 mph. This motion will start to move Dorian away from the eastern United States later today.
- A Flash Flood Emergency was issued this morning for portions of the Outer Banks as rapid water rises were occurring on the eastern portion of Pamlico Sound. Over 220,000 power customers did not have power in portions of North Carolina this morning, along with ~140,000 in South Carolina and ~50,000 in Virginia.
- Even though Dorian will be moving away from the United States, impacts will continue to batter portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast into Saturday.
- Storm surge flooding will continue to be possible, especially at high tide, along the Mid-Atlantic coast today. For some areas, the storm surge could be as high at 7 feet.
- Strong, destructive winds will continue to impact eastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia today, potentially topping hurricane-force at times. Strong wind gusts up to 60 mph will also be possible tonight into Saturday across portions of eastern Massachusetts.
- Heavy rain of at least 2-5” will continue to fall in the Mid-Atlantic, leading to potential totals of up to 15” in portions of eastern North Carolina. This will lead to flash flooding.
- We are also tracking Tropical Storm Faxai and Typhoon Lingling which could have impacts this over the next several days in Tokyo and Seoul, respectively.
Dorian Makes Landfall. At 8:35 AM EDT this morning Dorian made landfall over Cape Hatteras, NC, with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph. This is the fourth landfall that Dorian has made, with the other three occurring in the Bahamas.
Dorian As Of Friday Morning. Dorian has continued to be near the Outer Banks of North Carolina this morning. As of the 10 AM EDT update from the National Hurricane Center, Dorian had sustained winds of 90 mph. The center the storm was located 25 miles northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and was moving to the northeast at around 14 mph.
Flash Flood Emergency. Dorian has caused rapid water rises on the eastern portion of Pamlico Sound this morning, and water levels were reported at historic levels in Ocracoke. Due to these water rises, a Flash Flood Emergency was issued for portions of Hyde and Dare Counties in the Outer Banks, including locations like Hatteras and Avon.
Dorian Track. Dorian will continue to accelerate off to the northeast over the next couple of days, bringing the center of the storm southeast of New England tonight into Saturday, and then across Nova Scotia late Saturday into Saturday Night. Dorian will continue to have hurricane-force winds along with it even after it becomes post-tropical tomorrow out in the Atlantic.
Hurricane And Tropical Storm Alerts. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings remain in place this morning across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, with Watches in place across portions of Canada. In coastal areas, they are in place for the following areas:
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Surf City to the North Carolina/Virginia border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Nova Scotia
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island DE
* Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point southward
* Tidal Potomac south of Cobb Island
* Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach MA
* Nantucket and Martha's Vineyard MA
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands
* Fundy National Park to Shediac
* Francois to Boat Harbour
Potential Peak Wind Gusts In The Carolinas. As Dorian continues to push away from the Outer Banks today, we could still destructive wind gusts that top hurricane-force (74+mph) across portions of eastern North Carolina and extreme southeastern Virginia. These wind gusts will subside as the system moves farther out into the Atlantic.
Potential Peak Wind Gusts Across Cape Cod. The strongest winds across Cape Cod will occur tonight into Saturday when we could see sustained winds of 35-45 mph with gusts to 60 mph. This could cause some tree damage, blow around objects that aren’t secured, and bring the potential of power outages. Wind gusts will be stronger the farther southeast you are toward Nantucket.
Storm Surge Warnings. We will continue to watch the threat of a dangerous surge of water inland to areas that are typically dry, especially if the surge of water coincides with high tide, in association with Dorian today across portions of the Mid-Atlantic coast. Due to the potential of storm surge flooding, Storm Surge Warnings are in place from Salter Path, NC, to Poquoson, VA, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds, the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers, and Hampton Roads. If the peak water rises do coincide with high tide, we could see the following storm surge from Dorian in the eastern United States:
Salter Path to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...4 to 7 ft
Duck NC to Poquoson VA, including Hampton Roads...2 to 4 ft
Additional Rain Potential. Rain will continue to fall today across portions of the Mid-Atlantic in association with Dorian. The heaviest amounts will be in eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia, where at least an additional 2-5” could fall through tonight. Here are overall expected rainfall totals through Saturday according to the NHC:
Northeastern North Carolina...Additional 3 to 8 inches, isolated storm totals 15 inches.
Far southeast Virginia...3 to 8 inches.
Extreme southeastern New England...2 to 4 inches.
Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island...3 to 5 inches.
Newfoundland...1 to 2 inches.
Flash Flood Threat Continues. The heavy rain associated with Dorian today will still bring the potential of major, potentially life-threatening flash flooding across portions of northeastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia. Due to this, a High Risk of flash flooding is in place, including the Norfolk area.
Tropical Storm Faxai and Typhoon Lingling. Out in the Western Pacific, we are also tracking two systems as we head into the weekend. Tropical Storm Faxai is slowly gaining strength and is expected to become a typhoon this weekend. Before the storm approaches Tokyo late this weekend into early next week, the system could contain winds up to around 90 mph before it starts to weaken as it moves away from Japan. The center of the system is now expected to move east of Tokyo versus yesterday, but strong winds and heavy rain will still be possible in Tokyo later Sunday into Monday. We are also tracking Typhoon Lingling, which had winds of around 115 mph as of Friday Night. This storm will continue northward this weekend, slowly weakening until it makes landfall in North Korea Saturday. As the center of the storm moves west of Seoul Saturday local time, winds could gust up to 55 mph during the midday and afternoon hours with rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches.
D.J. Kayser, Meteorologist, Praedictix
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's CPC, the temperature outlook as we head into the middle part of the month looks warmer than average across much of the nation, including the Upper Midwest.
Here's the temperature outlook for the MSP Airport through the 3rd week of September, which shows up and down temps over the next couple/few weeks. It certainly looks chilly this weekend and early next week, but midweek temps could soar back into the 80s, which would be the first 80 degree high temp in the Twin Cities since August 20th. According to the European model (ECMWF) we could get up close to 90F by Thursday!
Warmest September Temps on Record at MSP
Here are the warmest temps on record at MSP for the month of September. Note that there has only been (1) 100 degree day, which happened back in 1931. Highs in the 90s are certainly more common and have happened quite a few times. In fact, last year in 2018 we had a high of 92 in September and in 2017 there was a 94 degree high temp. Since 2000, there have been (9) 90 high temps during the month of September.
Dorian Fades. Cool and Somewhat Soggy Weekend
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.
Hurricane Dorian will continue tracking northeast away from the US today, but outer bands will impact eastern Massachusetts and Maine as it quickly approaches Nova Scotia later this afternoon.
Dorian was an incredible storm that reached category 5 strength as it approached and stalled over the Bahamas for about a day. Winds were equivalent to an EF-4 tornado that caused catastrophic damage and even fatalities.
Dorian will rank as one of strongest and most intense 'landfalling' Atlantic hurricanes on record with maximum sustained winds of 185mph a central pressure of 910 millibars. The "Labor Day" Hurricane still holds the top spot as the strongest and most intense 'landfalling' Atlantic Hurricane on record with sustained winds of 185mph and a central pressure of 892 millibars when it ravaged Florida back in 1935.
Closer to home, cool, cloudy and somewhat soggy conditions settle in this weekend. Spits of on and off rain will impact parts of southern Minnesota, including tailgaters prepping for tomorrow's Vikes game. Let's go!
SATURDAY: Clouds increase, PM showers. Winds: E 8-13. High: 69.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Areas of rain, perhaps a clap of thunder. Winds: Calm. Low: 52.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy, few showers. Winds: E 7-12. High: 63.
MONDAY: Still cool. Rain and rumbles likely. Winds: ESE 10-15. Wake-up: 56. High: 67.
TUESDAY: Lingering showers up north. Winds: W 5-10. Wake-up: 62. High: 80.
WEDNESDAY: Slight chance of PM storms. Winds: E 8-13. Wake-up: 60. High: 75.
THURSDAY: Scattered showers and storms. Some heavy. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 59 High: 76.
FRIDAY: Windy and cooler. Spits of PM rain. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 60 High: 70.
This Day in Weather History
1990: Strong winds and hail up to 2 inches was reported in Swift, Douglas, Stevens, Kandiyohi, Meeker, Stearns, and Waseca Counties.
1986: A touch of winter is felt in northern MN, with lows of 20 degrees at Embarrass and 30 at Duluth.
1922: The fifth consecutive day of 90 degrees or above occurs in the Minneapolis area.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
Average High: 75F (Record: 98F set in 1976)
Average Low: 56F (Record: 40F set in 1956)
Record Rainfall: 2.16" set in 1964
Record Snowfall: NONE
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
Hours of Daylight: ~12 hours & 57 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 3 minutes & 3 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 21st): ~ 2 hours & 40 minutes
Moon Phase for September 7th at Midnight
2.2 Days Since First Quarter Moon
What's in the Night Sky?
"Look for the planet Saturn in the vicinity of the moon as darkness falls on September 7 and 8, 2019. Saturn is actually a bit brighter than a 1st-magnitude star, but this world still might be hard to see in the moon’s glare. If so, try placing your finger over the obtrusive waxing gibbous moon for a better view of Saturn, the most distant world that you can easily see with the eye alone. For all the world, the moon is seen in between Saturn and the king planet Jupiter on September 7. Below, we show you a more expanded view of the sky that includes both Saturn and Jupiter. Although the chart is especially made for mid-northern North American latitudes, you can still find Saturn rather easily from anywhere worldwide. Look first for Jupiter – by far the brightest “star” in the evening sky, and that “star” on the other side of the moon on September 7 will be Saturn."
2019 Preliminary Tornado Count