Somewhat Soggy Weekend Ahead
 
It was a somewhat soggy start to our Friday as scattered showers and thunderstorms rolled across parts of southern Minnesota. The weekend forecast calls for more showers and storms on Saturday, while Sunday could be the drier/nicer day of the weekend. At least laws and gardens are still happy!
 
_______________________________________________________________________________
 
Weekend Forecast
 
Plans for the weekend? Here's a quick glance at what we could be dealing with on Saturday and Sunday in the Twins Cities. Temps will top out around 80F both days with a few lingering showers and storms mainly on Saturday. At this point, Sunday appears to be the drier/nicer day of the weekend with a little more sunshine. 
 
 
Weather Outlook
 
A stalled frontal boundary will be draped across Nebraska, Iowa and northern Illinois over the weekend, which will allow scattered showers and storms to develop along it. With that said, we will on the northern fringes of this activity, so rainfall tallies should be a little lighter here than they will be to our south. However, strong to severe storms will be possible over the next few days across parts of the Upper Midwest, including parts of southern Minnesota. The next more significant wave rolls in on Monday, where widespread showers and storm look to develop, some of which could be strong to severe.
 
 
Severe Threat Saturday
 
According to NOAA's SPC, there is a MARGINAL risk of severe weather across far southern Minnesota on Saturday. While widespread severe weather is not expected at this time, a few strong to severe storms with strong winds and hail can't be ruled out.
 
 
Severe Threat Sunday
 
NOAA's SPC is also highlighting a risk of severe weather across parts of southwestern Minnesota on Sunday as a more vigorous wave of energy arrives across the Dakotas. It is looking like late day storms will develop and move into Minnesota Sunday night. Monday could be a more interesting day closer to home with a better chance of severe thunderstorms. Stay tuned!
 

__________________________________________________________________________
 
Rainfall Potential Ahead
 
Here's the GFS rainfall potential through 7pm Monday, which suggests the potential of heavier rainfall amounts across parts of Minnesota. Several rounds of showers and storms through the weekend could promote heavy rainfall tallies of 1" to 2"+ across parts of the state.
 

________________________________________________________________________
 
Aletta in the Eastern Pacific
 
Well that escalated quickly! What was once just a tropical storm on Thursdsay, quickly became a major, category 4 hurricane on Friday with sustained winds of 140mph! Pretty impressive storm right out of the gate this season!
 
 
Tracking Aletta
 
The official NHC track for Aletta shows it continuing at hurricane status through the weekend before dropping back to Tropical Storm and Tropical Depression status early next week. Again, the good news is that this storm will not impact any major land masses.
 
 
 5 Day Tropical Outlook
 
On the heels of Aletta is another wave of energy that NOAA's NHC is saying has a high probablility of tropical formation within the next 5 days. If this intensifies to a tropical storm, it will be named Bud!
 
Atlantic Outlook
 
The Atlantic remains quiet in the wake of Substropical Storm Alberto that developed in the Gulf of Mexico last week. Interestingly, Alberto developed before the official start date of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, which is June 1st - November 30th and while it might seem a little early to see tropical systems develop at this time of the year, it isn’t unheard of. In fact, since 1950, NOAA says there have been 20 Atlantic based name storms that have formed prior to June 1st, 4 of which have occurred since 2012.
 
 
Tropical Climatology (June 1st - 10th)
 
This is neat map from NOAA's NHC, which shows where we typically see tropical cyclones develop in early June. Note that in the Atlantic, the points of origin correlate well with where Alberto developed last week and the points of origin correlate well with where Aletta has formed in the Eastern Pacific this week.
 
 
______________________________________________________________________________
 
 Pollen Count - MEDIUM

Alright, well it looks like the worst of the spring allergy season is behind us, but according to Pollen.com, we are still running at MEDIUM allergy levels around the Twin Cities. The forecast through the weekend drops down into the low-medium category thanks to a bit of rain, but ramps back up into the Medium category next week, so keep the Benedryl handy... ACHOO!!


____________________________________________________________________________
 
Minnesota Drought 
 
According to the latest US Drought Monitor that was released on Thursday, June 7th, drought conditions across the state have improved a little more since last week! Abnormally dry conditions have decreased from ~55% last week to ~35% this week and is confined to the northern half of the state. 
 
 _______________________________________________________________________

Extended Temperature Forecast

The extended forecast through June 22nd & 23rd shows fairly steady temperatures continuing over the next couple of weeks with highs generally in the upper 70s and 80s. The images below suggest the GFS (American model) and ECMWF (European model) temperature outlook. Note that the GFS forecast keeps temps a little warmer with highs the the lower 90s on Monday, while the ECMWF keeps us a little cooler with 70s showing up again next week.

_______________________________________________________________________________

8 to 14 Day Temperature Oulook

According to NOAA's CPC, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook from June 15 - 21 suggests that much of the nation will be warmer than average, but the Upper Midwest could be a little closer to average. Keep in mind that the average high for the Twin Cities around that time is around 80F.

____________________________________________________________________________

2018 Lightning Fatalities

Did you know that lightning ranks as one of the top weather related killers in the U.S.? An average of nearly 50 people are killed each year in the United States and so far this year, 4 people have died from lightning; 2 in Florida, 1 in Texas, and now 1 in Tennesee. Interestingly, from 2008-2017, 222 males have died, while only 63 females have died.

See Lightning Safety Tips From NOAA HERE:

__________________________________________________________________________
 
2018 Tornadoes So Far...

According to NOAA's SPC, there have been 449 preliminary tornadoes so far this year (June 2nd), which is less than what we had at this time over the last couple of years. Interestingly, there were 1,432 tornadoes at this time in 2011; that year ended with 1,897 tornadoes, which is nearly 500 more than the short-term 2005-2015 average. 

Average Tornadoes in June By State

Here's the average number of tornadoes during the month of June by state. Texas sees the most with 24, but interestingly, Minnesota averages 15 tornado this month, which is the most out of any other month during the year. Comparitively, Minnesota averages 11 in July and 5 in August, so we are entering our typical severe weather season here over the several weeks.

_____________________________________________________________
 
3-7 Day Hazard Forecast

1.) Severe weather for parts of North Dakota, Sun, Jun 10.
2.) Locally heavy rain for parts of the northern Great Plains and middle to upper Mississippi Valley, Sun-Mon, Jun 10-11.
3.) Locally heavy rain across the southern mid-Atlantic, central to southern Appalachians, and upper Ohio Valley, Sun-Mon, Jun 10-11.
4.) Excessive heat for parts of the central and southern Plains along with the lower to middle Mississippi Valley, Sun-Mon, Jun 10-11.
5.) Much above-normal temperatures for the central and northern Great Plains, Sun, Jun 10.
6.) Much above-normal temperatures for parts of the western U.S., Tue-Thu, Jun 12-14.
7.) Enhanced wildfire risk for parts of the Great Basin and Southwest, Sun, Jun 10.
8.) A moderate risk of much above-normal temperatures for the interior Pacific Northwest, Sat-Thu, Jun 16-21.
9.) A slight risk of much above-normal temperatures for parts of northern California, Great Basin, and Pacific Northwest, Fri-Thu, Jun 15-21.
10.) A slight risk of much above-normal temperatures for the desert Southwest, Great Basin, and the Central Valley of California, Fri, Jun 15.
11.) A slight risk of heavy precipitation along the central and eastern Gulf Coast and adjacent inland areas, Fri-Sun, Jun 15-17.
12.) A slight risk of heavy precipitation from the central Gulf Coast north to the middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley, Sun-Tue, Jun 17-19.
13.) A slight risk of heavy precipitation across the desert Southwest and parts of the Great Basin and central Rockies, Fri-Sun, Jun 15-17.
14.) Flooding occurring or imminent across the upper Missouri River basin.
15.) Flooding possible across the northern Rockies.
16.) Severe Drought across parts of the Great Plains, Southwest, Great Basin, California, Oregon, and Missouri.

__________________________________________________________________

Temperature Anomaly on Friday

The temperature anomaly across North America from Friday showed above average temperatures across much of the nation, while cooler than average temps were still in place across parts of the Northeast and eastern Canada.

Temperature Trend

The 850mb temperature anomaly shows warmer than average temperatures continuing across much of the Central US as we head through the weekend. However, cooler than average temps will still be found in the Northeast, while another batch of cooler than average temps moves in along the West Coast and spreads into the High Plains through early next week.

_________________________________________________________________

Weather Outlook Ahead

Weather conditions over the next few days will remain fairly active across the northern tier of the nation as a stalled frontal boundary keeps showers and storms in place there. Keep in mind that some of the storms could be strong to severe in the Plains as we head into the next several days along with locally heavy rain. Florida will also be a bit unsettled with more showers and storms there through the weekend. A bigger storms looks to impact the Pacific Northwest with areas of heavy rain and gusty winds over the next few days. There will even be snow across the high elevations!

___________________________________________________________________

7 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's WPC, the 7-day precipitation outlook suggests areas of heavy precipitation across parts of the Central and Eastern US as scattered showers and storms continue there. Some of the heaviest could be found along a stalled frontal boundary that looks to set up from the Midwest to the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic States as stronger thunderstorms over the next few days. Meanwhile, the Southwest looks to remain dry over the next several days.

US Drought Outlook

Here is the national drought map from Thursday, June 5th, which shows extreme and exceptional drought conditions across much of the Four-Corners region and into the Central and Southern Plains. Hopefully we'll be able to pick up some much needed precipitation in these areas as we head into summer, which starts in only 2 weeks! However, note the Southeast is drought free now thanks to a VERY wet month of May!

___________________________________________________________________

Disappearing Fireflies? Somewhat Unsettled weekend
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.

Growing up, summer days were spent outside getting dirty and scraping up knees. Keeping Band-Aid companies in business was my forte in the 80s, no question! Before text messages, we relied on flickering fireflies and the buzz of a nearby street light to tell us when it was time to head home. Ahh, the memories.

Unfortunately, our friendly firefly population is decreasing. Scientists aren't exactly sure why, but believe loss of habitat, chemicals and light pollution may be contributing factors to the dwindling number of these interesting creatures. Save the lightning bugs!

Mother Nature will have her own light show over the next couple of days with chances of showers and thunderstorms showing up close to home. Saturday's weather certainly looks more unsettled than Sunday does, but don't cancel any tee-times or BBQs. Just have a plan B in case a grumble of thunder briefly chases you inside.

Uncertainty lies within Monday's thunderstorm potential. It may be too hot aloft, but if we break the cap, severe storms may develop!
_____________________________________________

Extended Forecast

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with thunderstorms. Winds: ESE 5-10. High: 79.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lingernig storms. Winds: E 5. Low: 65.

SUNDAY: Lingering AM shower. More PM sun. Winds: ESE 10-15. High: 80.

MONDAY: Hot & muggy. Strong PM storm chance. Winds: WSW 10-15. Wake-up: 67. High: 85.

TUESDAY: Not as humid. Comfy sun returns. Winds: WNW 5-10. Wake-up: 60. High: 78.

WEDNESDAY: Pleasant. Late day shower up north. Winds: W 5-15. Wake-up: 58. High: 79.

THURSDAY: Dry start. A few afternoon spits. Winds: NNE 5-10. Wake-up: 60. High: 80.

FRIDAY: Rain lingers across southern MN. Winds: E 5-10. Wake-up: 59. High: 79.
_______________________________________________________

This Day in Weather History
June 9th

2002: Extensive flash flood begins across northwest Minnesota. 14.55 inches would fall over the next 48 hours near Lake of the Woods. Floodwaters cover the city of Roseau. The Roseau River looked like a large lake from a satellite view.
_______________________________________________________

Average High/Low for Minneapolis
June 9th

Average High: 77F (Record: 95F set in 1976)
Average Low: 57F (Record: 39F set in 1915)

Record Rainfall: 2.33" set in 1927
Record Snowfall: NONE
_________________________________________________________

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
June 9th

Sunrise: 5:27am
Sunset: 8:58pm

Hours of Daylight: ~15 hours & 32 minutes

Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~ 53 seconds
Daylight GAINED since winter solstice (December 21st): 6 Hour 45 Minutes
__________________________________________________________

Moon Phase for June 9th at Midnight
3.5 Days After Last Quarter

_________________________

 Temp Outlook For Saturday

Here's a look at highs across the state on Saturday, which suggests near or slightly above average readings. However, temperatures near Lake Superior will be chilly with highs only in the 60s. 

 
Cabin Forecast
 
Here's a quick look at a few locations across central and northern Minnesota on Saturday. Readings up north will be a little cooler as we only warm into the 70s. However, some locations across northeastern Minnesota may not even make it out of the 60s, making for a chillier Saturday ahead there.
 
_________________________________________________________
 
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC, June 15th - 21st will be cooler than average from the Great Lakes to the Northeast, but much of the rest of the nation should remain above average!

____________________________________________________________________

"SOLAR PANELS POWER NEW SCHOOLS—AND NEW WAYS OF LEARNING"

"DRESSED IN PASTEL pink and green for an early spring day, second-grader Katherine Cribbs was learning about energyon a virtual field trip—to her own school. With a flurry of touch-screen taps, she explored the “energy dashboard” of Discovery Elementary in Arlington, Virginia. On her tablet, she swiped through 360-degree views of her school, inside and out. She clicked on icons embedded in the virtual classroom to learn about energy-saving features such as LED lights and super-insulated exterior walls made of concrete-filled foam blocks. Exploring the virtual school kitchen, she could read about how the lack of a deep fryer means less energy is needed for venting grease from the air. Another swipe whisked her up to the school’s roof, where about 1,700 solar panels spread out before her. After a few minutes, she looked up from her computer to explain her progress in a confident voice that rose above the second-grade din. “I learned that our solar panels rotate,” she said. “So, wherever the sun moves, the panels go, too.” In addition to this virtual tour, Discovery’s dashboard displays, in real time, the school’s energy generation. And in colorful bar graphs and pie charts, it also tracks energy use—broken down by lighting, plug load, kitchen, and HVAC. The tally reveals that Discovery generates more energy through its solar array than it uses over the course of the year."

See more from Wired HERE:


_______________________________________________________________________________

"Watch in Real Time as American Airlines 1897 Tries to Escape a Hail Storm From Hell"

"American Airlines Flight 1897 met a storm from hell on Sunday. Strong updrafts tossed the aircraft and thick hail battered its body. The incredible pictures of the plane's destroyed nose captured the world's attention. Meanwhile, though, observers on the ground captured another wild visual: the flight's meandering real-time path as pilots tried to navigate around the worst of the monster storm. Rick Kohrs, a graphic artist at NOAA's Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, created this image of the plane's "terrifying track." He superimposed AA 1897's flight path from Flight Aware with weather data from GOES-16, the latest sat from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) program. These sats capture storms as they develop, giving meteorologists a space-based tool to predict storms and warn people about ones that exist."

See more from Popular Mechanics HERE:


___________________________________________________________________________

"How expensive will this hurricane season be?"

"Atlantic hurricane season is officially underway, with the first named storm, Alberto, forming even before the official June 1 kick off of Hurricane Season. With such an early start to the season, it makes sense to be concerned. Particularly after an especially damaging 2017 season where the cumulative damages from three major storms that made landfall in the U.S. likely  in the hundreds of billions of dollars. But, according to The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) this year will be a near or above normal season. In 2018, 17 named storms formed and three major hurricanes made landfall on U.S. soil. For this year, 10 to 16 named storms including five to nine hurricanes and one to four hurricanes with a Category 3 strength or higher are predicted. Typically, the Atlantic basin sees 12 named storms. The NOAA added that there is a 75% chance that the 2018 season will see near or more than the average number of storms in the basin."

See more from Fox Business HERE:


_______________________________________________________________________________

"Can Farm Wetlands in Illinois Stop a Dead Zone in the Gulf of Mexico?"

"Winter isn’t the best time of year to visit a wetland. No fewer than three people offered me this advice, yet it’s 2 degrees Fahrenheit and I’m lost in snow-blanketed central Illinois. Two phone calls and a couple U-turns later, and I reach my destination: a small wetland on the edge of a 30-acre farm outside Princeton, Illinois. A year and a half ago this 50-foot-wide plot of matted grasses, no deeper than three feet, was productive cropland. Now it’s hard at work removing nitrates, byproducts of the ammonia-based fertilizers put on the farm fields, from the snowmelt runoff that flows through it.  The Wetlands Initiative constructed it through a federally funded land conservation program. Jill Kostel, an environmental engineer with the organization, worked with a retired, government-employed soil scientist to convince the landowner to pay $12,000 of his own money to convert this land to into a wetland."

See more from ChicagoMag HERE:

 ____________________________________________________________________________

"There's Way Too Little Ice Around Svalbard Right Now"

"If you came here looking for good Arctic sea ice news, I have some. Kidding, there’s no such thing as good Arctic sea ice news these days. When we last checked in with ice in the north, the picture was, uh, not good! The Bering Sea had lost all of its ice roughly a month ahead of schedule. Now there’s a meltdown taking place on the other side of the Arctic. Ice around Svalbard, a Norwegian island that sits between the Greenland Sea to the west and Barents Sea to the east, has receded rapidly over the past few weeks. Zack Labe, a PhD candidate at University of California, Irvine, told Earther the current ice coverage “is even less the average September minimum.” Arctic sea ice hit its second-lowest maximum on record this year after four years in a row of record lows. That left it in an already weakened state for the melt season, which usually sees icepack bottom out in September. But this melt season is already in exceptional territory around Svalbard with four more months to go."

See more from Earther HERE:

 ______________________________________________________________________________

"Mapped: Where lightning strikes the most"

"Every second on Earth, 100 lightning bolts strike the planet. That's about 8 million strikes per day, and 3 billion a year, on average. But as this map of nearly 9 billion lightning strikes shows, lightning is not evenly distributed around the world. The bottom line: Each continent, except for the frozen reaches of Antarctica, has lightning hotspots — usually the parts that have clashing air masses or mountains. Spin the map and see where you're at the greatest risk of getting zapped."

See more from Axios HERE:

 ______________________________________________________________________________
 
Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

Older Post

Unsettled Into The Weekend, But Not A Washout

Newer Post

Drier Day Sunday - Strong Storms Possible Monday