Skim Ice on Metro Ponds
Recent chilly morning across the state has allowed water temperatures too cool in lakes and ponds near you. We're starting to see some of the first skim ice develop on chilly mornings. This picture was taken on Wednesday morning, when the temp dipped to around 30F across much of the metro. Note that the Twin Cities' coldest temperature so far this season was 27F on October 31st.
November Averages in Minneapolis
Average High Temp: 41°
Average Low Temp: 26°
Average Precipitation: 1.77"
Average Snowfall: 9.3"
More Snow By The Weekend
The forecast into the weekend suggests another wintry mess heading into the Upper Midwest, which could once again bring another bout of accumulating snow to parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin. Here's the radar simulation from midday Thursday to midday Saturday. Note the areas of snow building into the region late in the day Friday throughout much of the day Saturday. There is also a chance that we could see a switch from snow to rain across the southern half of the state, which could cut back on snow totals there.

Snowfall Potential Through Sunday

Here's the snowfall potential through Sunday, which suggests some 3" to 6"+ tallies possible across the northern half of the state. While some may not like the snowy forecast, Deer Hunters heading into the Minnesota woods will be happy that there will be a little tracking snow this year. It will be a MUCH different story this year compared to last when it was unusually warm!

"Minnesota's Firearm Deer Hunting Opener Weather"
"Minnesota's 2017 Firearm Deer Hunting Opener is Saturday, November 4. The normal high temperature for November 4 ranges from the upper 30s across northern Minnesota to the upper 40s near the Iowa border. The average low temperature is in the 20s to low 30's. The historical probability of receiving measurable precipitation on November 4 is approximately 25%. Early November precipitation often falls as snow in the north, while rain is more likely in the south. An enduring, winter-long snow cover is typically not established until later in November, even in northern Minnesota. There has been significant snowfall on the Firearm Deer Hunting Opener in recent memory. 7.0 inches of snow fell at International Falls on the Deer Hunting Opener in 2003. 3.8 inches was reported at St. Cloud. The 2016 Firearm Deer Hunting Opener was very warm with 60's and 70's statewide."

September 10th - Official Peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season

We are less than 1 month from the official close of the Atlantic Hurricane Season (November 30th). Note that peak activity generally occurs on September 10th and stays somewhat active through the month of October, but really diminishes through the month of November. With that said, there have been years where tropical activity continues through the end of the year and even into the follow calendar year! 2005 was one of those years as Tropical Storm Zeta developed December 30th and continued through January 6th, 2006.



"BY ANY MEASURE, the fires that tore through Northern California were a major disaster. Forty-two people are dead, and 100,000 are displaced. More than 8,400 homes and other buildings were destroyed, more than 160,000 acres burned—and the fires aren’t all out yet. That devastation leaves behind another potential disaster: ash. No one knows how much. It’ll be full of heavy metals and toxins—no one knows exactly how much, and it depends on what burned and at what temperature. The ash will infiltrate soils, but no one’s really sure how or whether that’ll be a problem. And eventually some of it—maybe a lot—will flow into the regional aquatic ecosystem and ultimately the San Francisco Bay. That’s the bomb. Here’s the timer: An old, grim joke about California says that the state has only three seasons: summer, fire, and mudslides. Those mudslides happen because of rain; the Santa Ana (or Diablo, if you’d prefer) wind-driven wildfires of autumn give way to a monsoon season that lasts through winter and into spring. The rains of 2016–2017 ended a longstanding drought and broke all kinds of records."

See more from HERE:


Ongoing Large Wildfires

Here's a look at the current wildfire map across the country. Note that wildfire activity as REALLY slowed down with only a few major wildfires still burning across parts of California and in Texas.

Here's a list of all the current large wildfires from Inciweb:

PRELIMINARY 2017 Tornado Map

It certainly has been a fairly active first half of 2017 with 1,463 preliminary tornado reports through October 31st. Note that this is the most tornadoes through that date since 2011, when there were 1,820 reports. The map below shows the distribution of the tornadoes so far this year.

PRELIMINARY 2017 Tornado Count

According to NOAA's SPC, the PRELIMINARY 2017 tornado count is 1,463 (through October 31st). Note that is the most active year for tornadoes since 2011, when there were 1,820 tornadoes. Keep in mind there was a major tornado outbreak in the Gulf Coast region from April 25-28, 2011 that spawned nearly 500 tornadoes, some of which were deadly. That outbreak is known as the Super Outbreak of 2011 and has gone down in history as one of the biggest, costliest and one of the deadliest tornado outbreaks in history.


National Weather Hazards Ahead...

1.) Heavy snow across portions of the Cascades of Oregon, Fri, Nov 3.
2.) Heavy snow across portions of the Sierra Nevadas, Fri-Sat, Nov 3-4.
3.) Heavy rain across portions of California and Oregon, Fri-Sat, Nov 3-4.
4.) Heavy snow across portions of the Great Basin and Northern Rockies, Fri-Sat, Nov 3-4.
5.) Heavy snow across portions of the Northern and Central Rockies, Fri-Sun, Nov 3-5.
6.) Heavy snow across portions of the Uinta Mountains, Sun, Nov 5.
7.) Much below-normal temperatures across portions of the Northern Plains, the Northern Rockies, and the Northern Great Basin, Sun-Tue, Nov 5-7.
8.) Heavy precipitation across portions of Washington state, Tue, Nov 7.
9.) Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of Florida and the Northeast.
10.) Moderate risk of much below-normal temperatures for portions of Washington state through North Dakota, Wed-Fri, Nov 8-10.
11.) Moderate risk of much below-normal temperatures for portions of northern California, Wed, Nov 8.
12.) Slight risk of much below normal temperatures for portions of Great Basin, the Northern Plains, the Northern and Central Rockies, California, and the Pacific Northwest, Wed-Sun, Nov 8-12.
13.) Severe Drought across the Northern Plains, the Northern Rockies, and Hawaii.


High Temps Tuesday

Here's a look at high temperatures across the nation on Tuesday, which suggests that temperatures across parts of the Western US, High Plains and Midwest will be below average. Note that some locations in Montana could be nearly 25F below average. On the other hand, folks from the Northeast to the Southern US will once again be above average. In fact, some in Texas could be nearly 20F above average, where the mercury could hit 90F!

Record Warmth in Texas on Thursday

It'll be so warm on Thursday that a number of record highs will likely fall across parts of Texas and into Oklahoma. Interestingly, Dallas/Ft. Worth has never hit 90F during the month of November (only month to have never have a 90F high) and could possibly do that on Thursday.

National Weather Outlook

Here's the weather outlook through the end of the week, which shows fairly active weather across the country with one storm moving into the Eastern half of the country, while another system moves into the Western half of the country. Areas of heavy rain and thunderstorms will be found across the lower half of the Mississippi Valley, while areas of heavy snow will be found across the northern half of the Rockies. Also note that widespread rainfall will begin moving in along much of the West Coast as we head into the end of the week and weekend ahead!

7 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's WPC, areas of heavy precipitation will be possible across the lower half of the Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes and parts of the Northeast. Another area of heavy precipitation will also be found across the Western US, especially in the high elevations, where several inches of precipitation will likely fall through the early part of next week. Note that much of that precipitation will fall in the form of heavy mountain snow!

Snowfall Potential
Here's the snowfall potential over the next 5 days, which shows the heaviest snow falling across the high elevations in the Western US. Some of the mountains could see in excess of a foot of snow by the end of the weekend. There will also be more snow to come across the Upper Midwest, where plowable snow could fall across parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin!
Data Shows That Early Snows Don't Mean Too Much
By Paul Douglas
Predicting snowfall totals is like Fantasy Football on a bad day - when you publicly post your picks, and then second-guess every bad decision. Wednesday's alleged storm was one big nothing-burger. A quick burst of snow in the metro coated lawns before a changeover to light rain. (Insert yawn here.)
Air and ground temperatures aren't usually consistently cold enough for accumulating snow until late November and early December.
According to the Minnesota Climate Office these early swipes of snow don't mean a f-f-frigid, pioneer winter is imminent. "Through 2016, 44 out of 140 Octobers in the Twin Cities have seen at least one day with measurable snow. The winters that followed those instances of snowfall have spanned nearly the entire spectrum of possibilities: dry, wet, snowy, cold."  Even the 1991 Halloween blizzard was followed by the 11th warmest winter on record at MSP.
Another brush with slush is possible Friday, but we dry out Saturday before a period of rain Sunday morning.
A cool bias lingers into next week, but no beefy hype-worthy storms are on the horizon just yet.
Extended Forecast
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Drying out. Winds: NW 7-12. High: 41.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy and chilly. Winds: NNW 5. Low: 29.
FRIDAY: Dry start. Light mix arrives PM hours. Winds: E 5-10. High: 40.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Cool breeze. Winds: E 7-12. Wake-up: 33. High: 43.
SUNDAY: Light rain tapers. Drying out late. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 39. High: 49.
MONDAY: Clearing skies. Feels like November. Winds: W 7-12. Wake-up: 37. High: 39
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy and quiet. Winds: NW 5-10. Wake-up: 28. High: 40.
WEDNESDAY: Mix of clouds and chilled sunlight. Winds: N 5-10. Wake-up: 25. High: 41.

This Day in Weather History
November 2nd

1938: A tornado touches down at Nashwauk in Isanti County. Many livestock killed.

1842: A mild spell occurs at Ft. Snelling, where the temperature rises to 60 degrees.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis
November 2nd

Average High: 49F (Record: 72F set in 1978)
Average Low: 33F (Record: 9F set in 1951)

Record Rainfall: 0.72" set in 1901
Record Snowfall: 5.3" set in 1992

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
November 2nd

Sunrise: 7:53am
Sunset: 5:59pm

Hours of Daylight: ~10 hours 6 mins

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~2 minutes and 45 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 20th): 5 hours & 31 minutes

Moon Phase for November 2nd at Midnight
0.9 Days Until Full "Beaver" Moon

"Nov. 4, 1:23 a.m. EST – Full Beaver Moon. This was the time of year when the old Native American tribes set beaver traps, to ensure a supply of warm winter furs before the swamps froze. Another interpretation suggests that the name Beaver Full Moon comes from the fact that the beavers are now active in their preparation for winter. It's also called the Frosty Moon."

Weather Outlook For Thursday

Thursday will be another chilly day across the region with temps running nearly 10F to 15F below average with highs only warming into the 30s across Minnesota and the northern half of Wisconsin.

Minneapolis Temperature Outlook

Here's the temperature outlook through November 16th, which shows chilly temps continuing as we head through the first half of the November. For the most part, highs will only warm into the 30s, but there could be a couple/few days that see readings in the 40s.


6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA CPC, there is a good chance that below average temps will continue across parts of the Midwest into the 2nd week of November.

6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC - much of the nation will remain above average with the exception of the Western US and Midwest, where cooler than average temps will be found.


"Wine Organization Forecasts Historically Bad Year Due To Weather Events"
"World wine production is having a historically bad year. Europe, home to the world's leading wine producers, is making wine at significantly lower levels than usual – and that's because of "extreme weather events" such as frost and drought that have damaged vineyards, according to the International Organization of Vine and Wine (OIV). The intergovernmental wine organization says this year's output is projected to be the lowest in more than 50 years, according to the BBC and Reuters. It is projecting that 246.7 million hectoliters will be produced this year globally, a drop of 8.2 percent compared to last year. The situation is bleakest in the three countries that produce the most wine – Italy (down by 23 percent), France (down by 19 percent) and Spain (down by 15 percent)."

"Forecasting By Cloud"
"We surface observers admire clouds for their beauty, but don't get it twisted -- clouds are more than just something pretty and puffy to gaze at. Clouds can actually clue you in on what weather lies in the hours and days ahead. (Cloud type , .) Here's what seeing these 10 clouds means. (You'll be thankful for this knowledge the next time you're out backpacking or boating.)"

"How Do Scientists Measure the Public Health Impacts of Natural Disasters?"
"In the wake of this year’s hurricanes, epidemiologists are assessing the effects of mold, toxic leaks and other threats. Two months after Hurricane Harvey submerged much of metropolitan Houston, recovery is under way across the city. Residents and volunteers are gutting and restoring flooded homes. Government agencies and nonprofit organizations are announcing cleanup programs and developing plans to distribute relief funds. But many questions remain about impacts on public health. What contaminants did floodwaters leave behind? How many people are being exposed to mold – which can grow rapidly in damp, humid conditions – as they repair their homes? Will there be an increase in Zika, West Nile or other vector-borne diseases as mosquito populations recover? Or an uptick in reported cases of other illnesses?"
(Image Credit: AP Photo/David Goldman Via 

"From Asthma to Birth Complications: The Unexpected Ways Hurricanes, Wildfires, Tornadoes, and Blizzards Harm Your Health"
"Whenever extreme weather strikes, the news continuously reports rising death tolls. We don’t often see coverage of the health consequences that continue after disasters subside. Natural disasters like hurricanes, wildfires, tornadoes, tsunamis, and blizzards have unexpected health consequences to those living near them — even after they’re gone. Let’s look at these in more detail."
"Earth is seeing an unprecedented surge in carbon dioxide levels, with disturbing implications"
"Although many countries are making progress in slowing their emissions of carbon dioxide, a global warming pollutant, the amount of the gas in the air surged at a record pace in 2016, a new report found. The amount of carbon dioxide in the air increased at an extreme rate last year to reach the highest amount in at least 800,000 years, according to the World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) Greenhouse Gas Bulletin. Globally averaged concentrations of carbon dioxide reached 403.3 parts per million in 2016, which was up from 400.00 ppm the year before. The culprit? Human activities, such as the clearing of rainforests and burning of fossil fuels, as well as a strong El Niño event. During strong El Niño years, when ocean temperatures are milder than average in the tropical Pacific Ocean, altering weather conditions around the world, carbon dioxide tends to increase at a faster rate. The El Niño helped cause droughts in tropical regions and reduced the capacity of carbon "sinks," such as forests and the oceans, that soak up carbon dioxide."

"Science says winter is arriving later, departing earlier"
"Winter is coming ... later. And it’s leaving ever earlier. Across the United States, the year’s first freeze has been arriving further and further into the calendar, according to more than a century of measurements from weather stations nationwide. Scientists say it is yet another sign of the changing climate, and that it has good and bad consequences for the nation. There could be more fruits and vegetables — and also more allergies and pests. “I’m happy about it,” said Karen Duncan of Streator, Ill. Her flowers are in bloom because she’s had no frost this year yet, just as she had none last year at this time either. On the other hand, she said just last week that it was too hot and buggy to spend time outdoors — in late October, near Chicago. The trend of ever later first freezes appears to have started around 1980, according to an analysis by the Associated Press of data from 700 weather stations across the U.S. going back to 1895 compiled by Ken Kunkel, a meteorologist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Centers for Environmental Information. To look for nationwide trends, Kunkel compared the first freeze from each of the 700 stations to the station’s average for the 20th century. Some parts of the country experience earlier or later freezes every year, but on average freezes are coming later."
Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

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