Severe Risk Monday
According to NOAA's SPC, there is a MARGINAL risk of severe storms across the eastern Dakotas and western MN. While the threat doesn't appear to be very widespread, there could be a few strong to severe storms later in the day. Stay tuned...
Fall Ragweed Allergies
It's that time of the year again where Fall Rageweed Allergy sufferers are starting to get sneezy and itchy. Oh yes, one of my favorite times of the year - NOT! I don't know about you, but I start getting bad around State Fair Time and that is right around the corner. If you're like me, start taking those allergy meds, hopefully you can start building up those immunities! The image below shows the steading increase in pollen levels over the last 30 days in Minneapolis. Keep in mind that pollen level will continue to rise and will be consistently in the "high" category over the next several weeks. Pollen levels won't really drop until we see our first frosts of the season, which on average arrive early/mid October in the Twin Cities.
"What Is a Ragweed Allergy?"
"Ragweed pollen is one of the most common causes of seasonal allergies in the United States. Many people have an adverse immune response when they breathe in the pollen. Normally, the immune system defends the body against harmful invaders, such as viruses and bacteria, to ward off illnesses. In people with ragweed allergies, the immune system mistakes ragweed pollen as a dangerous substance. This causes the immune system to produce chemicals that fight against the pollen, even though it’s harmless. The reaction leads to a variety of irritating symptoms, such as sneezing, running nose, and itchy eyes. Approximately 26 percent of Americans have a ragweed allergy. The allergy is unlikely to go away once it has developed. However, symptoms can be treated with medications and allergy shots. Making certain lifestyle changes may also help relieve the symptoms associated with ragweed allergies."
"Climate Change Is Going to Make Ragweed Allergies Even Worse, Study Finds"
"There’s no shortage of horrible things that will become more common in the near future due to climate change, like coastal flooding, extreme weather, and disease-causing ticks, to name a few. But new research published Thursday in PLOS-One adds another annoyance to the list: Allergy-causing ragweed. The common ragweed, or Ambrosia artemisiifolia as it’s formally called, is a voracious plant known for quickly overtaking whatever environment it’s suited to inhabit. The plant grows annually through the warmer parts of the year in the U.S. Importantly for us, it’s also an abundant source of pollen, making it one of the leading triggers of hay fever and asthma. Though native to parts of North America, ragweed has invaded much of Europe, Asia, and other areas with relatively temperate weather, including some of the Southern United States. Given ragweed’s love of warmer temperatures, scientists have feared that climate change has and will continue to help it spread further. There’s already research suggesting that this is happening in Europe, but the authors of this latest study say theirs is the first to consider the future of ragweed in North America."
"Phenology: August 13th, 2019"
US Drought Monitor
According to the latest US Drought Monitor (updated on August 13th), much of the state is still drought free! Thanks to significant precipitation so far this year, much of us have had very little to worry about in terms of being too dry. However, in recent weeks, it certianly has been dry in a few locations. Lawns and gardens have been a bit parched as of late, so a little bit of rain on Saturday did help where it fell.
2019 Yearly Precipitation So Far...
2019 has been a pretty wet year across much of the Upper Midwest. In fact, many locations are several inches above average precipitation, some even in the double digits above average Rochester, MN. Interestingly, Rochester is at its wettest start to the year on record with 36.36" of liquid and if it didn't rain or snow the rest of the year there, it would be the 21st wettest year ever in recorded history. The Twin Cities is at its 4th wettest start to the year on record with a surplus of +7.68".
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's CPC, the extended temperature outlook into the last full week of August suggests warmer than average temps returning to much of the naiton, especially across the Western US.
I can't believe that we are less than 1 week away from the MN State Fair... good grief! Looking ahead through the end of the month it doesn't appear that any significant heat waves are headed our way. We may see a couple/few summery blips, but again, nothing major. According to the GFS, September could start on a cooler note. In fact, it's suggesting high temps only in the 60s! We're still quite a few days out from that and lots could change, but stay tuned.
What Makes Me Nervous? Plenty.
By Paul Douglas
Much like economists, carnival workers and politicians with short attention spans, meteorologists live lives of quiet desperation and perpetual paranoia. What can go wrong, and what time?
Do I ever get scared? Yes. When airline pilots (who think they're descendants of test pilot Chuck Yeager) fly into thunderstorms. Bad idea. Being near sea level with a hurricane approaching. Seeing a flash of lightning and hearing the roar of thunder simultaneously (ie, a very close call). Or baseball-size hail, meaning a storm may be strong enough to spin up a tornado. That, and late summer weekends.
A weak cool frontal passage means a sloppy start this morning, giving way to some sun by afternoon, but cooler than yesterday. Expect highs at or above 80F most of this week; a shot at 90F next Saturday with a few swarms of thunderstorms possible. A swig of cooler, more comfortable air arrives next Sunday, with a very cool start to the week leading up to Labor Day.
A cooler/wetter bias has been hard to shake this year.
SUNDAY: Damp start, then clearing. Winds: NW 8-13. High: 78.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and quiet. Winds: Calm. Low: 58.
MONDAY: Warm sunshine. Too nice to work. Winds: S 3-8. High: 80.
TUESDAY: Unsettled. Late thundershower risk. Winds: S 5-10. Wake-up: 63. High: 83.
WEDNESDAY: Sunny and less humid. Very nice. Winds: NW 7-12. Wake-up: 59. High: 79.
THURSDAY:Sunny. Perfect weather for the Fair. Winds: SW 5-10. Wake-up: 60. High: 82.
FRIDAY: Warm sun. Slight thunder chance late. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 63 High: 86.
SATURDAY: Hot sun. Few t-storms in the area. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 70 High: 90.
This Day in Weather History
953: Four heifers near St. Martin were lucky; a tornado picked them up and set them back down again, unharmed.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
Average High: 80F (Record: 98F set in 1976)
Average Low: 62F (Record: 41F set in 1977)
Record Rainfall: 2.26" set in 1907
Record Snowfall: NONE
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
Hours of Daylight: ~13 hours & 57 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 2 minutes & 49 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 21st): ~ 1 hour & 40 minutes
Moon Phase for August 18th at Midnight
3.8 Days After Full "Sturgeon" Moon
"7:29 a.m. CDT - This moon marks when this large fish of the Great Lakes and other major bodies of water like Lake Champlain are most readily caught. A few tribes knew it as the Full Red Moon — because when the moon rises it looks reddish through sultry haze — or the Green Corn Moon or Grain Moon."
What's in the Night Sky?
"We’ve recently seen Orion’s return to the east before dawn, which means our northern summer is beginning to draw to a close. But the Summer Triangle asterism still rules the skies. It pops out first thing at nightfall and climbs highest up for the night at late evening. From mid-northern latitudes, Vega – the Summer Triangle’s brightest star – shines high overhead around 10 p.m. local daylight saving time (9 p.m. local standard time). Altair resides to the southeast (lower left) of Vega, and Deneb lies to Vega’s east (left). The Summer Triangle is not a constellation. It’s three bright stars in three different constellations, as the wonderful photo below – by Susan Jensen in Odessa, Washington – shows."
2019 Preliminary Tornado Count
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