A Look At July So Far

Since we are approximatedly half way through the month of July, let's look back at the first half so far. Temperature-wise, we are running above average by about 3.5F with an average temperature of 77.4F. The warmest high we've seen is 95F back on the 12th, but we have observed four highs of 90F. All highs (except the first day of the month) have been 80F or higher.

While we have only seen five days with measurable precipitation so far in July, we are 2.26" above average so far through the middle of the month. This is partically due to the 2.13" of rain we saw on the 12th, in addition to over an inch of rain on the 1st.

Precipitation has been a huge story across parts of the state so far this month (once again), with already a good 2-5"+ of rain falling from southwestern up into northern Minnesota. Areas around southwestern Minnesota and in/around the Lake Mille Lacs area have been hit the hardest so far, with a COOP observer reporting 9.92" of rain in Mora and an a CoCoRaHS observer reporting 10.47" so far near Lucan in Redwood County.

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Cooler, Less Humid Air Moves In To Begin The Week
By D.J. Kayser, filling in for Paul Douglas

We are in the heart of summer and typically that means we are seeing a lot of heat and humidity across the state. Last week in the Twin Cities certainly didn't disappoint, with four days in the 90s for highs and five days with an hourly dew point reading of at least 70F. Two of those days had an hourly dew point of at least 75F at some point. That was certainly warm and sticky enough to make you want to find the closest beach or break out the sprinkler for the kids. We’ve now had 13 days with a high of at least 90F this year – right on average with the number we typically see during a full year (13).

Cooler and more comfortable air is sliding in from Canada for the first half of the work week, with highs expected to be slightly below average for mid-July. You may even have the opportunity to turn off the air conditioner for a while! Our next storm system moves in for the second half of the week, bringing humid air back to the region as well as storms that could once again produce heavier rain in spots.

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Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: Beautiful mid-July weather. High 84. Low 62. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.
TUESDAY: Another fantastic day. A touch cooler. High 79. Low 61. Chance of precipitation 0%. Wind N 3-8 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Late night storms. High 80. Low 65. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind SSE 5-10 mph.
THURSDAY: Showers and storms. High 76. Low 65. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind SE 10-15 mph.
FRIDAY: A few lingering storms. Mainly cloudy. High 80. Low 65. Chance of precipitation 30%. Wind NW 5-15 mph.
SATURDAY: Mix of clouds and sun. High 84. Low 66. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.
SUNDAY: Mainly sunny and nice. High 84. Low 65. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.

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This Day in Weather History
July 16th

2006: A heat burst occurs over west central and central Minnesota. The temperature at Canby jumped from 91 degrees to 100 degrees in 40 minutes from 10:35pm to 11:15pm. At the same time the dew point temperature dropped from 63 to 32 degrees. Heat bursts are caused by dying thunderstorms with very warm air aloft.

1963: A downpour falls at St. Charles, where half a foot of rain accumulates in one day.

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Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
July 16th

Average High: 84F (Record: 102F set in 1926)
Average Low: 65F (Record: 51F set in 1958)
Average Precipitation: 0.13" (Record: 1.28" set in 1908)

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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
July 16th

Sunrise: 5:41 AM
Sunset: 8:56 PM

*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 14 minutes and 10 seconds
*Daylight Lost Since Yesterday: ~1 hour and 40 seconds

*Next Sunrise Of 6 AM Or Later: August 3rd (6:00 AM)
*Next Sunrise Of 8:30 PM Or Earlier: August 8th (8:29 PM)

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Minnesota Weather Outlook

Monday should be a fairly nice, sunny and dry day across the state of Minnesota. Highs will generally be in the 70s to low 80s across the state, however a few areas of northern Minnesota including International Falls and Grand Marais may be stuck in the 60s. That high in International Falls isn't even close to their coldest high on record for July 16th - that was 53F back in 2009.

Highs on Monday across the state will be below average for mid-July, ranging from just below average across southern Minnesota to up to 10 degrees below average across the northland.

Temperatures will remain in the upper 70s to 80s this week across the Twin Cities, with no long-lasting bursts of heat expected in the extended outlook in the models.

You can even see that in the 8-14 day temperature outlook, in which the odds are higher for below average temperatures according to the Climate Prediction Center.

The next chance of rain moves into Minnesota late Wednesday into Friday as a storm system slides into the region. While I think the GFS output above is currently overdoing the total amount of rainfall expected, parts of southern Minnesota could easily pick up 1-3" of rain over this time period.

Here's a look at potential rainfall totals for late in the week across southern Minnesota, courtesy of NWS Twin Cities.

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National Weather Forecast

On Monday, a cold front will continue to drive south and east from the Central Plains to the Great Lakes, bringing the threat of showers and storms along with it. 0.50-1.50" of rain could fall along parts of the front, particularly in the Appalachians. Monsoonal moisture will continue across the Southwest, with more showers and storms, some of which could be heavy at times. With tropical moisture in place, afternoon showers and storms will be possible across the Southeast.

In parts of the western United States we will continue to track excessive heat to begin the week. 100F+ degree highs are possible in Medford and Redding Monday, with highs in the 90s as far north as Seattle.

Highs in the 100s will continue Tuesday in parts of the Northwest, including a high of 110F in Redding, CA.

Some of the heaviest rain over the next five days will be along the northern Gulf Coast and along parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic Coast, where 2-4"+ of rain could fall during the middle part of the week. Monsoonal moisture could cause several inches of rain to fall this week across the Southwest, with some pockets of heavy rain in the Northern and Central Plains for the middle of the week.

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Huge iceberg threatens tiny Greenland village

More from the Guardian: "A 100-metre (330ft) high iceberg has drifted close to a tiny settlement on Greenland’s west coast, prompting fears of a tsunami if it breaks up.  Authorities have told residents of the Innaarsuit island settlement living near the shore to move to higher ground.  “We fear the iceberg could calve [break apart] and send a flood towards the village,” said Lina Davidsen of Greenland police.  Susanne Eliassen, a member of Innaarsuit’s council, said it was not unusual for large icebergs to be seen close to the community."

MO, KS Farmers Dealing with Drought

More from DTN: "The Southern Plains were dry this spring and these conditions have spread north and east. A large area from central Kansas east through north-central Missouri has received limited moisture.  Northern Missouri, for instance, has generally had only 4 to 8 inches of precipitation since mid-April, said DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist Bryce Anderson. This would be anywhere from 50% to 75% below average, he said.  Calculated soil moisture shows a deficit of 4 inches or greater in these areas. The dry conditions extend from the Southern Plains into northern Missouri and into southeastern Iowa and western Illinois.  However, Missouri has had the worst of those three states by far, he said.  "This is the first time since mid-July 2012 that northern Missouri is in Level 3 (extreme) drought," Anderson said. "

Changes in Hudson River may offer insight into how glaciers grew

More from Science Daily: "Think of it like a geological mystery story: For decades, scientists have known that some 25,000 years ago, a massive ice sheet stretched to cover most of Canada and a large section of the northeastern United States, but what's been trickier to pin down is how -- and especially how quickly -- did it reach its ultimate size.  One clue to finding the answer to that mystery, Tamara Pico said, may be the Hudson River.  A graduate student working in the group of Jerry Mitrovica, the Frank B. Baird, Jr. Professor of Science, Pico is the lead author of a study that estimates how glaciers moved by examining how the weight of the ice sheet altered topography and led to changes in the course of the river. The study is described in a July 2018 paper published in Geology."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great Monday! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!

 - D.J. Kayser

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