Lori Sturdevant: Third District up for grabs, with new dynamics

A lot changes in 18 years. Just ask any parent -- or politician.

It's been 18 years since Minnesota's pols and pol-reporters took a good hard look at Minnesota's Third Congressional District. When they started looking closely again last Monday -- the day that Republican U.S. Rep. Jim Ramstad bowled 'em over with a retirement announcement -- there were more surprises in store.

For starters, take a look at which political party Third Districters told pollster Bill Morris that they like best last month (see graphic, right). They're just about evenly split between Republicans and Democrats.

Would the late Bob and Mary Forsythe, Edina's Republican power couple of the '60s and '70s, believe that? (Wish I could ask them. Both of them left us this year, Bob in June, Mary just this month.)

Morris, the former Republican state chairman who heads the polling firm Decision Resources Ltd., had a load of other betcha-didn't-know stuff about today's western suburbs. He was in the field Aug. 15-18, interviewing 600 people, which produces results with a sampling error of plus or minus 4.2 percent. Here are some nuggets:

• "No new taxes" has fallen out of favor in the Third in the past five years. In 2002, 61 percent of Thirders said they "favor the approach of balancing budgets without raising taxes." In the new poll, that share is down to 37 percent.

It appears that many of them haven't liked what they've seen of that governing approach. That may explain why DFLers have picked up eight legislative seats in the Third since 2004.

• But these folks consider property taxes a drag. Three out of four say their community's most important need is lower property taxes, Morris said.

That may have something to do with this fact: Parts of the Third District are graying faster than the rest of the state. Edina is believed to have the largest share of past-age-65 seniors of any metro municipality. Minnetonka isn't too far behind. Seniors on fixed or slow-growing incomes are notoriously property-tax averse.

• Morris couldn't confirm the Third's reputation as the working-mother leader of Minnesota. But he could report that one out of three working wives have either professional or technical jobs. That's more than in any other Minnesota district.

Knowing that explains a lot -- like, the Third District's high percentage of college grads (52 percent, compared with 30 percent statewide). And its high average income -- $62,400 per household, a good $10,000 more than the statewide average. And the consistently high proportion of those polled who say adequate K-12 funding is the most important issue facing the state. In the latest poll, education is beat out by rising health-care costs and -- just barely -- by the need to improve transportation.

• Social issues are likely to give the Third District Republican candidate a headache.

Three out of five Third District poll respondents called themselves "prochoice." A slightly larger share oppose the "Bachmann amendment" that would ban both marriage and civil unions for same-sex couples. Fewer than one in five approve of the state's 2004 law allowing the concealed carrying of handguns, Morris found.

A candidate who agrees with the district's majority on those issues is not likely to win the endorsement of any Republican convention I can imagine assembling in 2008. But a GOP candidate who champions the party platform on those matters will be laying himself or herself open to a primary challenge and/or a general-election defeat.

How about planning to duck those issues? That's not gonna work either, given the likely themes of the Republican National Convention in St. Paul next September. That crowd will be keen to hold onto their base -- and that means they won't be talking about Iraq or the federal deficit.

A big, national show at the Xcel Energy Center, right before the state's primary election, that makes Republicans synonymous with government bars on abortion, stem-cell research and gay unions would be a nightmare for the Third's GOP candidate.

Knowing how quickly the old Republican-red Third has been turning purple and even blue adds luster to Jim Ramstad's star. He consistently commanded a solid two-thirds, and often more, of the district's vote from 1990 until 2006. His blend of fiscal conservatism, social-issue moderation and nice-guy approachability obviously fit not only the Third District of old, but of today.

Who will suit it tomorrow? My advice, to both parties: Find another Ramstad.

Lori Sturdevant is a Star Tribune editorial writer and columnist. She is at lsturdevant@startribune.com.