Todd's StarTribune Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:
MONDAY: Breezy & mild. Increasing clouds, light mix possible north PM hours. High: 50
MONDAY NIGHT: Light rain/snow mix possible north, otherwise mostly cloudy. Low: 34
TUESDAY: Breezy. Light mix continues early, then turning partly sunny and colder. High: 42
WEDNESDAY: Feeling like November, jacket weather. Partly sunny and chilly. Low: 24. High: 34
THURSDAY: Clipper approaches. A little more sun early, still brisk. Low: 20. High: 38
FRIDAY: More clouds, slight chance of a little light rain north. Low: 28. High: 47
SATURDAY: Cloudy with a rain/snow mix possible. Low: 28. High: 43
SUNDAY: Light rain/snow mix possible early, then clear, breezy and colder. Low: 32. High: 42
Photo Courtesy: Paul Sundberg
Paul snapped this great shot in Grand Marais on November 7th when the November Gales were blowing steadily on Lake Superior. If you want to see waves like this, book a room somewhere along Minnesota's North Shore during the month of November, there's a good chance you'll have some weather to enjoy! One of my favorite things to do is to hunker down in a cabin, listening to the waves crashing on the shore with a fire in the fireplace. Thanks again Paul for the great photo, keep em' coming! Don't forget to check out the rest of Paul's amazing work at his website, the link is listed above.
"Make hay while the sun shines, boy" is a saying that my late grandfather used to always say to me when I was younger. As a young kid, I thought he was crazy... How was I supposed to make hay and what would I do with it? Well, I'm a little older and a little wiser, though, my wife may say otherwise and after the Fall weather we've had, the old adage that my grandfather used to say, sure is ringing in my ears.
Even though we are nearly 5.25" behind normal precipitation since September 1st, the dry and mild weather has been perfect for getting those outdoor chores done. By this time last year, the MSP Airport had already seen 8" of snow. In a month where we average 10", we've only seen a trace this trace this year.
The national weather pattern remains active, but those storms keep sailing past us with few problems. Two clipper-like systems will skip across the international border early this week, each bringing a surge of cold air. It'll feel cold enough for snow, but again, we will stay snow accumulation free for another week in the Twin Cities. Though, a larger storm may make things a little more interesting this upcoming weekend, stay tuned and stay warm - Todd Nelson
Extremely Strong Colorado Winds This Weekend
A storm over the weekend kicked up winds to over 100mph. In some cases these were warm "Chinook Winds", but at other times, these winds whipped snow around and created blizzard-like conditions.
Interactive Wind Report Map
Take a look at some of the wind gusts reported just west of Denver, CO over the weekend,
Photo Courtesy: The Summit County Citizens Voice
The picture below was taken near Breckenridge, CO, note how the tree is splintered!
Today's Weather Setup
A front moving through the middle part of the country is going to kick up some showers and thunderstorms today from the Ohio Valley down to the Southern Plains. Some of these storms could be strong to severe today, in fact, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT RISK of severe for parts of the country, see the map below. Also note the series of cold fronts lined up back to the west across Canada, these are the cold fronts that will cool things off greatly across the Upper Midwest through midweek.
Severe Weather Threat Today
The areas shaded in orange have the best chance for strong to severe weather later Monday. Gusty winds and large hail appear to be the main threat, but isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out.
2nd Front Blasts Through Tuesday
The 2nd front that blasts through late Monday Night & Tuesday will bring a surge of some of the coldest air of the season to the Upper Midwest Tuesday and Wednesday, though, little snow is expected with this system.
850mb Temperature Map For Wednesday
The 850mb temperature map for Wednesday shows a cold blob of air surging south of the border Tuesday night and Wednesday. High Temperatures @ MSP will be stuck in the 30s and for some will struggle to get into the 30s... BUNDLE UP!!
Storm Potential Next Weekend
The extended forecast models still show a potential storm developing somewhere in the Upper Midwest next weekend. It's still a long ways out, but there is a chance that your travel could be compromised if this system develops further and sets its sights on places closer to home... stay tuned!
Thanks for checking in and don't forget to check me out on Twitter
Have a great week ahead!
Meteorologist Todd Nelson
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How did you cope with the (fake) Blizzard of '17? Residents of the metro are rolling their eyes, but 75 miles southeast of MSP it was a full-blown blizzard with a foot of snow, ice and high winds creating treacherous travel conditions. Which is vaguely interesting, but it didn't happen in my yard, so it doesn't matter, right? I get it: all weather, like politics, is local. The sun comes out today with less wind; temperatures moderating into the low 40s early next week.
Back on Monday I predicted "a couple of inches" for today. Then some of NOAA's models began showing crazy amounts of snow, as much as 12-15" in the immediate metro, so I ratcheted up expected snowfall amounts (you can't ignore the NAM model, right?) Turns out my initial instincts were closer to the mark. Heaviest snow bands set up south of the metro with a full-blown blizzard over southern Minnesota. Yet another example where the ECMWF (European) outperforms NOAA's models. Which doesn't make me happy, btw.
Storm To Take Southerly Track - MSP Metro Advisory for Couple Inches - Blizzard Far Southern Minnesota
You just knew this was going to happen...
There's still a chance of 10 or 12" of snow in the metro, although the odds have dropped a bit as some of NOAA's models catch up with a southward shift in the ECWMF (European) guidance package. The Twin Cities are on the northern edge of plowable snow amounts with the one-foot-plus amounts south of the Minnesota River. Confidence levels are still low for a storm less than 18 hours away - models are all over the map. Literally. This is why meteorologists show up at the isobar some nights.
Yes, it was a bit...unnerving...to see a pouring rain almost the entire day on Monday. Any other February that would been 6-10" of snow. Not this winter. Our supernaturally mild signal lingers into Wednesday, and then winter takes a swipe at us on Friday - although latest guidance suggests the heaviest stripe of snow may set up south/east of MSP. How many times have you heard that over the years? Colder air follows the storm, but nothing Nanook or subzero. That said, it's a little early to stash your coat or parka into cold storage. We'll get smacked around a few times into March.