Heavy Rain Ahead
 
The week ahead looks VERY wet as several rounds of rain move through the Uppere Midwest. Some locations could see 2" to 4"+ through Wednesday. The information below come from the NWS Twin Cities:
 
"A series of storm systems will begin to affect the Upper Midwest starting Sunday night. There is a potential of receiving several inches of rainfall before the precipitation tapers off Thursday."
 
_______________________________________________________________________________
 
Sunday Weather Oultook

High temperatures on Sunday will be quite chilly across the state once again with temps running nearly -10F to -15F below average. Interestingly, the average temp in the Twin Cities is running nearly -5F below average.
 
____________________________________________________________________________

Weather Outlook

Here's the weather loop from midday Sunday to Midday Tuesday, which shows rain arriving late Sunday and continuing in waves through the middle part of next week. Some of the rain could be heavy at times, with areas of snow possible across the western Dakotas and also along the international border.

Precipitation Potential

Here's NOAA WPC rainfall potential through AM Saturday, which shows fairly heavy rain tallies through the 2nd full week of October. Some locations could see upwards to 2" to 4"+, including the Twin Cities.


____________________________________________________________________________

Another Temperature Dip

The extended forecast as we head through the third week of October suggests very chilly temps continuing with highs well below average. The end of next week could be even colder with highs only in the 40s and lows dipping to near the frosty range again.

___________________________________________________________________________

Average First Frost?

Despite the recent chilly air, the Twin Cities has not yet recorded its first frost of the season. Note that the average first frost date (32F) at the MSP Airport typically happens ~October 10th. Much of the rest of the state typically sees it between September 21st-30th. So, on average, we are only a week away from our first official frost here in the Twin Cities. #WinterIsComing
 

______________________________________________________________________________
 
Fall Color Peeping
 
Thanks to the park staff at McCarthy Beach State Park for the picture below who submitted this on the MN DNR fall color page. Great picture!!
 
 
MN DNR Fall Color Update
 
The MN DNR continues to update their fall color report for the 2018 fall season and fall colors are changing fast, especially up north. According to the MN DNR, much of northern MN is now at peak color, while the Twin Cities at at 25%-50% color now.
 
 
____________________________________________________________________________
 
Typical dates for peak fall colors in Minnesota

According to the MN DNR, the typical peak for fall color starts in mid/late September across far northern Minnesota, while folks in the Twin Cities enjoy it around late September to mid October.


____________________________________________________________________________
 
What causes fall colors?
 
Have you ever wondered why leaves change color and what causes the leaves to turn the color they do? The MN DNR has a great explanation.
 
Four main groups of biochemicals are responsible for the various yellows, oranges, reds and browns that we see in the fall:

Chlorophyll
Carotenoids
Anthocyanins
Tannins

Each has its own color and chemistry. As the amount of these chemicals vary, they will cause subtle variations in color from one leaf to the next, or even from tree to tree.

See more from the MN DNR HERE:

___________________________________________________________________________

"THIS YEAR'S FALL COLORS WILL BE STUNNING. HERE'S WHEN & WHERE THEY'LL PEAK NEAR YOU"

"Although it may feel like this hot and steamy summer may never end, fall -- with its mercifully cooler weather, pumpkin drinks, and changing leaves -- is nearly upon us. So, it'd behoove you to start looking at the trees. The changing of the seasons brings with it ample reason to break out a flannel shirt and walk through the stunning fall foliage all across the country, and thanks to the above-average moisture and temperatures this summer, you'll have plenty of time to ensure that you can venture into the woods and take it all in. You may have missed your chance to fit in another summer trip this year, but on the bright side, you have more than enough time to plot an adventure through American's stunning forests to catch the changing leaves, or dare we say go "leaf peeping." To make matters even easier, SmokyMountains.com has released its annual interactive fall foliage forecast map, predicting when and where the leaves will be at their most vibrant hues of red, yellow, orange, and brown. And while there's no forecast that's 100% accurate, the map can serve as your primary resource if you're inclined to wander into the woods this fall."

See more from Thrillist HERE:


________________________________________________________________________________

Can We All Agree on Tacos - and Umbrellas?
By Paul Douglas

Can we at least agree on tacos? Last Thursday was National Taco Day. Polls suggest 95 percent of Americans LOVE tacos. We also agree on motherhood, apple pie and a fear of public speaking, too.

This chilly, wet phase will hang on another 10 days or so, but models (consistently) warm us up by the third week of October. More 60s and 70s are coming.

In the meantime strap on your scuba gear and prepare for a few waves of heavy rain, as a series of low pressure waves ripple along a nearly stationary frontal boundary.

A dry sky lingers this morning for the Medtronic Twin Cities Marathon, but showers return by evening. Heavier, steadier rain falls Monday into Wednesday with another 2 inches expected, but ECMWF hints at 4-5 inch amounts just south/east of MSP.

Over 8 inches has fallen since September 1; the 6th wettest such period since 1871, according to NOAA.

While we gripe about perpetual puddles models hint at "Michael" forming in the Gulf of Mexico, with possible landfall on the Florida Panhandle Thursday.

Remind me not to whine about a metro frost risk Friday morning.
_____________________________________________

Extended Forecast

SUNDAY: Dry start. Late PM showers. Winds: NE 8-13. High: 53.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Showers likely and a few rumbles. Winds: ENE 10. Low: 49.

MONDAY: Steadier, heavier rain. Slow commutes. Winds: E 7-12. High: 58.

TUESDAY: Heavy showers. Possible T-storms. Winds: NE 10-15. Wake-up: 50. High: 55.

WEDNESDAY: Still soggy. Periods of rain. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 46. High: 52.

THURSDAY: More clouds than sun. Brisk. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 38. High: 47.

FRIDAY: Frosty start. Partly sunny. Winds: W 7-12. Wake-up: 32. High: 48.

SATURDAY: Cold wind. Showers late. Winds: NW 15-25. Wake-up: 40. High: 46.
______________________________________________________

This Day in Weather History
October 7th

2003: Record high temperatures are seen across the area. St. Cloud's high is 86 degrees. Minneapolis ties their record high of 85 degrees set in 1997, and Alexandria sets their record high of 88 degrees. Forest Lake reaches a record-setting 82 degrees, along with Stillwater at 84 degrees.

1980: Summer-like heat occurs over Minnesota with highs of 92 at Montevideo and 84 at MSP airport.
_______________________________________________________

Average High/Low for Minneapolis
October 7th

Average High: 62F (Record: 85F set in 2011)
Average Low: 43F (Record: 25F set in 1976)

Record Rainfall: 0.98" set in 1904
Record Snowfall: Trace set in 2002
_________________________________________________________

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
October 7th

Sunrise: 7:18am
Sunset: 6:42pm

Hours of Daylight: ~11 hours & 24 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~3 minutes & 5 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 21st): 4 hours and 13 Minutes
__________________________________________________________

Moon Phase for October 7th at Midnight
0.9 Days After Last Quarter Moon

_________________________

What's in the Night Sky?

According to EarthSky.org this is what will be visible in the night sky over the next several nights: 

Draco the Dragon is now spitting out meteors, also known as shooting stars. This is one shower that’s best to watch in the evening, not after midnight. The shower is active between October 6 and 10. The best evening to watch is likely October 8; try the evenings of October 7 and 9 also. This shower favors the Northern Hemisphere, but Southern Hemisphere observers might catch some Draconids, too. No matter where you are on Earth, watch as close to nightfall as possible. There’s a possibility the Draconids will be spectacular in 2018. The Draconid meteor shower produced awesome meteor displays in 1933 and 1946, with thousands of meteors per hour seen in those years. European observers saw over 600 meteors per hour in 2011. Just remember, meteor showers are a bit like rain showers. There are no guarantees. Even at northerly latitudes, the Draconids are typically a very modest shower, offering only a handful of slow-moving meteors per hour. It’s only when the Draconids’ parent comet – 21P/Giacobini-Zinner – is nearby, that the shower becomes a storm. This year, the comet reached perihelion, its closest point to the sun, on September 10, 2018. On that same night, it was closer to Earth than it had been in 72 years. Will those two facts add up to a spectacular Draconid meteor shower this year? No one really knows, and we haven’t heard any predictions from professional astronomers. The only way to find out is to watch.

_______________________________________________________________

Praedictix Briefing: Saturday, October 6th, 2018

  • An area of low pressure near the Bay Islands of Honduras is expected to move north over the next several days. As it does so, atmospheric conditions are expected that could allow the low-pressure area to form into a tropical system Sunday or Monday.
  • Models indicate that this system potentially would make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast mid to late next week. Those with facilities along the coast should keep an eye on this system over the next several days.

High Probability Of Formation. We’re watching an area of low pressure this morning sitting north of the Bay Islands of Honduras. While there is some organization to this system, there currently isn’t a well-defined center of circulation. This system will continue to the north over the next several days, moving into an environment that would allow it to potentially develop into something tropical. The National Hurricane Center has an 80% chance of formation into a tropical system in the next two days and a 90% probability in the next five days. If it were to become a tropical storm, it would be named Michael.

System To Move Northward Into Next Week. Models indicate this system will continue to move in a northerly direction, bringing heavy rain and gusty winds to the Yucatan peninsula and western Cuba through early next week. This system would then pose a threat to the northern Gulf Coast sometime mid to late next week. While it is too early to know exact details, facilities along the northern Gulf Coast should keep an eye on this system over the next several days.

D.J. Kayser, Meteorologist, Praedictix
_________________________________________________________________________

Tropical Climatology

This is neat map from NOAA's NHC, which shows where we typically see tropical cyclones develop during the first part of October. Keep in mind that September 10th is the average peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, so even though we are passed the typical peak, things can still be VERY active.
 

Older Post

Another October Monsoon: 2-3" Rain Expected Sunday PM Into Wednesday

Newer Post

Cue the Puddles: Over 3 Inches of Rain by Midweek?