High temperatures on Sunday will be quite chilly across the state once again with temps running nearly -10F to -15F below average. Interestingly, the average temp in the Twin Cities is running nearly -5F below average.
Here's the weather loop from midday Sunday to Midday Tuesday, which shows rain arriving late Sunday and continuing in waves through the middle part of next week. Some of the rain could be heavy at times, with areas of snow possible across the western Dakotas and also along the international border.
Here's NOAA WPC rainfall potential through AM Saturday, which shows fairly heavy rain tallies through the 2nd full week of October. Some locations could see upwards to 2" to 4"+, including the Twin Cities.
Another Temperature Dip
The extended forecast as we head through the third week of October suggests very chilly temps continuing with highs well below average. The end of next week could be even colder with highs only in the 40s and lows dipping to near the frosty range again.
Average First Frost?
According to the MN DNR, the typical peak for fall color starts in mid/late September across far northern Minnesota, while folks in the Twin Cities enjoy it around late September to mid October.
Each has its own color and chemistry. As the amount of these chemicals vary, they will cause subtle variations in color from one leaf to the next, or even from tree to tree.
"THIS YEAR'S FALL COLORS WILL BE STUNNING. HERE'S WHEN & WHERE THEY'LL PEAK NEAR YOU"
"Although it may feel like this hot and steamy summer may never end, fall -- with its mercifully cooler weather, pumpkin drinks, and changing leaves -- is nearly upon us. So, it'd behoove you to start looking at the trees. The changing of the seasons brings with it ample reason to break out a flannel shirt and walk through the stunning fall foliage all across the country, and thanks to the above-average moisture and temperatures this summer, you'll have plenty of time to ensure that you can venture into the woods and take it all in. You may have missed your chance to fit in another summer trip this year, but on the bright side, you have more than enough time to plot an adventure through American's stunning forests to catch the changing leaves, or dare we say go "leaf peeping." To make matters even easier, SmokyMountains.com has released its annual interactive fall foliage forecast map, predicting when and where the leaves will be at their most vibrant hues of red, yellow, orange, and brown. And while there's no forecast that's 100% accurate, the map can serve as your primary resource if you're inclined to wander into the woods this fall."
Can We All Agree on Tacos - and Umbrellas?
By Paul Douglas
Can we at least agree on tacos? Last Thursday was National Taco Day. Polls suggest 95 percent of Americans LOVE tacos. We also agree on motherhood, apple pie and a fear of public speaking, too.
This chilly, wet phase will hang on another 10 days or so, but models (consistently) warm us up by the third week of October. More 60s and 70s are coming.
In the meantime strap on your scuba gear and prepare for a few waves of heavy rain, as a series of low pressure waves ripple along a nearly stationary frontal boundary.
A dry sky lingers this morning for the Medtronic Twin Cities Marathon, but showers return by evening. Heavier, steadier rain falls Monday into Wednesday with another 2 inches expected, but ECMWF hints at 4-5 inch amounts just south/east of MSP.
Over 8 inches has fallen since September 1; the 6th wettest such period since 1871, according to NOAA.
While we gripe about perpetual puddles models hint at "Michael" forming in the Gulf of Mexico, with possible landfall on the Florida Panhandle Thursday.
Remind me not to whine about a metro frost risk Friday morning.
SUNDAY: Dry start. Late PM showers. Winds: NE 8-13. High: 53.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Showers likely and a few rumbles. Winds: ENE 10. Low: 49.
MONDAY: Steadier, heavier rain. Slow commutes. Winds: E 7-12. High: 58.
TUESDAY: Heavy showers. Possible T-storms. Winds: NE 10-15. Wake-up: 50. High: 55.
WEDNESDAY: Still soggy. Periods of rain. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 46. High: 52.
THURSDAY: More clouds than sun. Brisk. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 38. High: 47.
FRIDAY: Frosty start. Partly sunny. Winds: W 7-12. Wake-up: 32. High: 48.
SATURDAY: Cold wind. Showers late. Winds: NW 15-25. Wake-up: 40. High: 46.
This Day in Weather History
2003: Record high temperatures are seen across the area. St. Cloud's high is 86 degrees. Minneapolis ties their record high of 85 degrees set in 1997, and Alexandria sets their record high of 88 degrees. Forest Lake reaches a record-setting 82 degrees, along with Stillwater at 84 degrees.
1980: Summer-like heat occurs over Minnesota with highs of 92 at Montevideo and 84 at MSP airport.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
Average High: 62F (Record: 85F set in 2011)
Average Low: 43F (Record: 25F set in 1976)
Record Rainfall: 0.98" set in 1904
Record Snowfall: Trace set in 2002
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
Hours of Daylight: ~11 hours & 24 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~3 minutes & 5 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 21st): 4 hours and 13 Minutes
Moon Phase for October 7th at Midnight
0.9 Days After Last Quarter Moon
What's in the Night Sky?
According to EarthSky.org this is what will be visible in the night sky over the next several nights:
Draco the Dragon is now spitting out meteors, also known as shooting stars. This is one shower that’s best to watch in the evening, not after midnight. The shower is active between October 6 and 10. The best evening to watch is likely October 8; try the evenings of October 7 and 9 also. This shower favors the Northern Hemisphere, but Southern Hemisphere observers might catch some Draconids, too. No matter where you are on Earth, watch as close to nightfall as possible. There’s a possibility the Draconids will be spectacular in 2018. The Draconid meteor shower produced awesome meteor displays in 1933 and 1946, with thousands of meteors per hour seen in those years. European observers saw over 600 meteors per hour in 2011. Just remember, meteor showers are a bit like rain showers. There are no guarantees. Even at northerly latitudes, the Draconids are typically a very modest shower, offering only a handful of slow-moving meteors per hour. It’s only when the Draconids’ parent comet – 21P/Giacobini-Zinner – is nearby, that the shower becomes a storm. This year, the comet reached perihelion, its closest point to the sun, on September 10, 2018. On that same night, it was closer to Earth than it had been in 72 years. Will those two facts add up to a spectacular Draconid meteor shower this year? No one really knows, and we haven’t heard any predictions from professional astronomers. The only way to find out is to watch.
Praedictix Briefing: Saturday, October 6th, 2018
- An area of low pressure near the Bay Islands of Honduras is expected to move north over the next several days. As it does so, atmospheric conditions are expected that could allow the low-pressure area to form into a tropical system or .
- Models indicate that this system potentially would make landfall along the northern Gulf Coast mid to late next week. Those with facilities along the coast should keep an eye on this system over the next several days.
High Probability Of Formation. We’re watching an area of low pressure this morning sitting north of the Bay Islands of Honduras. While there is some organization to this system, there currently isn’t a well-defined center of circulation. This system will continue to the north over the next several days, moving into an environment that would allow it to potentially develop into something tropical. The National Hurricane Center has an 80% chance of formation into a tropical system in the next two days and a 90% probability in the next five days. If it were to become a tropical storm, it would be named Michael.
System To Move Northward Into Next Week. Models indicate this system will continue to move in a northerly direction, bringing heavy rain and gusty winds to the Yucatan peninsula and western Cuba through early next week. This system would then pose a threat to the northern Gulf Coast sometime mid to late next week. While it is too early to know exact details, facilities along the northern Gulf Coast should keep an eye on this system over the next several days.
D.J. Kayser, Meteorologist, Praedictix