business

Predicting the future of technology is like forecasting the weather, but often less accurate.

Industry pundits have, in other years, predicted that society would go paperless, that the iPod would fade away quickly and that spam e-mail would be eliminated. So this year, some technology analysts at ABI Research in Oyster Bay, N.Y., have switched their bets. Rather than guess what will happen in 2010, they're predicting what won't happen this year:

•The iPhone won't lose its title as the most popular smart phone.

"The iPhone feels good in your hand, it works well, it has a sharp screen image, it has thousands of apps," said Lance Wilson, research director of ABI Research. "Most other smart phone makers are trying to emulate the iPhone, although none of them admit it. And you can't blame them; there's a lot of cash to be had. But you end up with an endless number of iPhone copies. And a copy, no matter how skillfully done, is not as desirable as the original."

What's more, there's pent-up demand for the iPhone because in the United States it's been limited to AT&T's network.

"What will happen when AT&T's exclusive right to sell the iPhone ends? If the iPhone's available on the networks of Verizon or Sprint, you'll see an explosion of new iPhone business," Wilson said.

•E-readers won't become must-have devices.

Despite the growing sales of Amazon's Kindle and other e-readers, which consumers use to buy, download and read electronic versions of books and magazines, they won't take off in 2010, said Jeff Orr, ABI's mobile devices analyst.

"E-readers cost $200 to $300, which is the high end of pricing for consumer electronics devices," Orr said. "To reach a mass market of consumers, e-readers need to be below $100."

Consumers who use e-readers today are either voracious readers or business travelers who want the convenience of not having to carry bulky physical books, Orr said. The question is what it will take to entice other consumers, who already have the less-expensive option of reading e-books on a computer or a smart phone.

Only about 1 million to 2 million e-readers were shipped worldwide in 2009, and that represents a tiny slice of the mass market.

"We won't hit 40 million to 50 million e-readers sold annually for another two to three years," Orr said.

•Free Internet video, including online TV shows, won't steal many customers from cable and satellite TV.

"We'll continue to see more Internet video in 2010, but the easiest way for consumers to watch TV will still be cable or satellite," said Jason Blackwell, digital home analyst at ABI Research.

The reasons: The Internet is still harder to use than a TV set, and there's still no easy way for consumers to receive online video on their TV sets. TV manufacturers are beginning to offer sets that are easier to connect to the Internet, but it will take several years for them to become common, Blackwell said.

Meanwhile, other forces are working against Internet video. TV companies are offering some of their own video on the Net after it's appeared on TV, which they hope will keep paying customers happy. And if, as is rumored, free video websites such as hulu.com start charging for access, Internet video would become a less attractive alternative to TV watching.

•GPS navigation service won't become free for everybody in 2010.

When Google made free turn-by-turn navigation service available on the Droid smart phone in late 2009, many wondered whether GPS makers such as Garmin and TomTom would survive in 2010. They will, but their growth will diminish as cell phones become better GPS devices, said Dominique Bonte, an ABI analyst.

"Garmin and other traditional GPS navigation unit makers can still have a profitable business in the high-end market, where units have 5- to 7-inch touch-screens, and the convenience market, where people just want to take it out of the box and use it," Bonte said. "But, ultimately, navigation service will become free."

Steve Alexander • 612-673-4553