Waiting on weather

A break in the cold, wet weather on Monday sent corn prices falling as traders saw a hopeful sign that this year's harvest -- already delayed several weeks -- might yet bring in the gold. But some farmers who actually must bring in the harvest before a winter freeze sets in were less optimistic.

"We were just talking the other day, we might have to have Thanksgiving dinner in the field," said corn farmer Gerald Tumbleson, speaking by cell phone from the cab of his tractor in Sherburn, Minn. Tumbleson said he has at least two weeks of harvesting yet to do, and that's if the weather doesn't get worse.

Rain and snow this fall have played the role of spoiler, delaying harvest well beyond normal.

A mere 6 percent of Minnesota's corn crop has been harvested, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said Monday. It's usually half done by now. Nationwide, 20 percent of the crop is in, far short of the five-year average of 58 percent. Nearly half the soybean crop has been harvested, but in recent years farmers have had their soybean crops out of the fields by now.

It's been the wettest October on record in Winona, Minn., with 6.12 inches so far. Many places around the state have recorded near records of above 5 inches. And in the Twin Cities this month, it's rained 4.82 inches, which makes it the 10th-wettest October on record.

Even hunters are grumbling. The late harvest provides pheasants more places to hide.

And wildlife experts say deer hunters could be greeted with fields of standing corn -- and well-hidden deer -- when the season opens Nov. 7.

"It's just a mess," said Gene Hugoson, the state's agriculture commissioner, who also runs a farm in Martin County. "We could have a beautiful November and be OK, but the odds diminish the further you go into the end of the year."

Typically, a farmer using modern machinery can harvest 10 acres an hour, but not if the ground is too muddy. Soybean farmers have hustled to get their crops out before freezing temperatures sweep through the region: Low temperatures can crack open soybean pods and ruin a farmer's yield. Drying the beans can be costly and dangerous. A soybean drier at a Crookston, Minn., elevator caught fire last week.

Hugoson said it snowed on his fields last week. He's been touring the state to check on the harvest and in some regions around Cannon Falls last week, farmers were still waiting to get into their fields.

The delays have caused some corn shortages in places where ethanol plants and livestock demand a consistent supply, Hugoson said. Some areas have less than a 10-day supply.

"Elevators are paying a premium right now in order to get more crop delivered more quickly," he said.

Corn futures prices had risen about $1 a bushel since early September as traders at the Chicago Board of Trade anticipated a smaller crop due to the weather. A mild weekend and generally clear skies Monday saw traders pulling back from that rally, with prices for a December corn contract falling to $3.78 a bushel.

It's unlikely the price changes so far will have much effect on prices at the grocery store, however, as commodity costs for major crops make up only a fraction of the cost of most processed foods.

It's not over yet, though, according to Darin Newsome, an analyst at Telvent DTN, an agriculture news network based in Omaha.

"We're still in the wait-and-see mode we've been in since early September. The market is very unsure on what's going to come in."

Pheasants have been among the beneficiaries of the unusually late harvest. The standing corn makes it easy to hide from hunters who since Oct. 10 have been out in force.

"The pheasant will literally get up in the morning and fly into standing corn. Right before sunset they will come out of the corn and roost in these wildlife areas," said Steve Merchant, wildlife program manager at the state's Department of Natural Resources (DNR).

Jon Huber, hunting manager at Scheels in Mankato, Minn., said a recent pheasant hunting trip ended with most in his party shooting their limit, but only after spending more time in the field than usual. "It was a lot harder for us this year than it ever has been," Huber said. "Deer hunting could be pretty hard for folks."

Hunters usually shoot about 200,000 deer annually, according to the DNR, and about half of those come from agricultural areas. A late corn harvest could reduce the deer harvest and lead to a spike in population.

Tumbleson, the farmer, said he remembers a later harvest -- 1993 -- but this year's will be costly as farmers pay more to dry their crops.

"We did not think there was a possibility that we could have a wet fall because our summer was so dry," he said. "The first 6 inches didn't even show up," Tumbleson said, because it sank into the dry ground so quickly. "The next 3 inches showed up."

Matt McKinney • 612-673-7329