business

Eaten out lately? Someone is, if the stocks of casual dining restaurants are any clue.

Climbing far beyond the Dow Jones' rise of 12 percent since March, the prices of Caribou Coffee, Granite City Food and Brewery and Famous Dave's went on wild tears of 176 to 205 percent in the past 10 weeks. And national chains such as IHOP, Ruby Tuesday and Chili's Grill & Bar saw their parent companies' stocks rise 332 to 615 percent, with most of that coming since late February.

A rise in restaurant stocks isn't something most investors -- or restaurant owners -- would have seen coming.

A Nielsen consumer survey out this month reported that 25 percent of respondents say they would eat out much less often than before the recession. And more than half of those who took the survey said they are eating at home more often.

Total restaurant traffic declined 1 percent in 2008. And a recent report from the NPD group, a research firm based in Chicago, said the decline could worsen this year in the wake of rising unemployment, which has consumers rattled.

It's gotten so bad that a pair of celebrity chefs have seized on the moment to go on a national tour promoting "The Great Recession Recipe Book," which features recipes such as Bailout Beer and Cheese soup.

Given all of that, why are restaurant stocks swelling up like a binge eater at an all-you-can-eat buffet?

Analyst Stan Huber of the Motley Fool trading website said some of the movement simply followed broader trends: The market was oversold in March and when investors sensed a bottom, things started to bounce back.

The Standard & Poor's SmallCap Restaurants Index of 18 companies climbed 24 percent so far this year.

Mark Smith, an analyst at Feltl and Co., called it a harbinger, saying: "Restaurants lead us into the recession, and historically restaurants have led us out. It's a good indication of where the consumer is."

As for the underlying health of the companies, it might not be that sales have improved, but that they are less bad, Smith said. "And that's been encouraging."

Here's the local scorecard:

•Granite City Food and Brewery leapt 205 percent on May 4, falling back somewhat since then but at Friday's close of 39 cents a share still more than double its average price through the month of April.

•Caribou Coffee, the Brooklyn Center-based coffee chain, climbed 177 percent in two months, shooting up from $1.66 a share on March 2 to $4.50 a share at the end of April. It flirted with $6 a share last week before closing Friday at $5.28.

•Famous Dave's took the same ride, climbing 176 percent in March and April, from $2.45 on March 2 to $6.76. It closed Friday at $5.85.

Speaking a day after Granite City's 205 percent rise, Feltl and Co. analyst Smith called it "a pretty extraordinary move," but it doesn't seem to be based on fundamentals.

His advice to investors?

Sell.

"They have a tough balance sheet," Smith said. "We've seen a lot of restaurant stocks rebound and prior to [Granite City's 205 percent surge] we hadn't seen them bounce. I think there's a reason for that. People are nervous about the company."

The St. Cloud-based chain is a fantastic concept, Smith said, but its debt load causes concern. "I question the viability long term of getting through this rough patch," he said.

Smith held a "buy" rating on GCFB through the second half of 2007 as the stock slid sharply. He eventually converted to a "sell" rating in the third quarter of 2008 as the stock slide continued.

Granite City CEO Steve Wagenheim didn't return calls seeking comment.

The coffee fans out there, meanwhile, have less to go on, said Huber, of the Motley Fool.

"All the coffee stocks have gone crazy," he said. "I have not seen anything written anywhere that says why."

Irrational exuberance?

Caribou's balance assets-to-liabilities ratio is relatively low, and even though its most recent quarter reported big sales increases, particularly in its commercial business, CBOU was listed as one of five "deathbed stocks" at Motley Fool last week. As in, making its death rattle.

Famous Dave's, meanwhile, has had high turnover in its executive suite and food inflation costs to battle, but its latest CEO, Christopher O'Donnell, seems to have finally found some traction for the Minnetonka-based barbecue chain.

New short-term purchasing contracts and a slowdown of new store openings, along with special benefits to franchisees if they're able to open a new store in this environment, have produced higher earnings despite lower sales in its most recent quarter, Huber said. And rather than open new locations, he said, O'Donnell is paying down the company's debt.

If anyone else foresaw the casual restaurant stampede of the past few weeks, they should have plenty of cash to pay off whatever debts they have as well.

Matt McKinney • 612-673-7329