Continued: Is the bad news over for UnitedHealth Group Inc.?

Is the bad news over for UnitedHealth Group Inc.?

Maybe.

Just before the July 4th holiday, the country's biggest health insurer said a bunch of things that shook the market: It would make less money this year than expected, lose more members than expected and cut thousands of jobs nationally. It also announced a big payout to settle a class-action lawsuit, avoiding a court battle this fall over who did what in a long-running stock-options scandal.

Then again, maybe not.

The company -- like other health insurers -- still faces stiff competition in a weakening economy with employers less willing to stomach higher premiums. There's also UnitedHealth's own operational problems, which have antagonized both doctor groups and the large employers who are its clients.

Reflecting the market's ambiguity, the early-morning announcements sent the company's share price yo-yoing, finally ending the day 2 percent lower. In the days since, several analysts have downgraded the stock -- along with that of other insurers -- sending it tumbling further.

There are now nine "buy" recommendations from analysts who track UnitedHealth, nine "hold" recommendations and a single call to sell.

"We continue to believe that managed-care stocks are too cheap to sell, but it's too early to buy with less than a 12-month time horizon," wrote Charles Boorady of Citi Investment Research, who has a "high-risk" buy recommendation on UnitedHealth.

Anyone still trying to divine the future may get a better idea Tuesday, when the company releases second-quarter earnings.

Once considered a bellwether for the health insurance industry, UnitedHealth now finds itself in the stunning position of trading at a discount to its competitors. Its price-earnings ratio is hovering around 6, while that of other national insurers -- Cigna, Wellpoint, Humana and Aetna -- is above 8.

Since the beginning of the year, UnitedHealth's share price has been more than halved, closing Friday at $23.90. That's about 13 percent above its five-year low. But anyone looking for a rebound may have to wait a little longer.

On July 2, UnitedHealth dropped its 2008 profit target for the second time this year, to between $2.95 and $3.05 per share, on revenue of $81 billion. The company had predicted earnings per share of $3.55 to $3.60.

Chief Executive Stephen Hemsley, in a conference call with analysts, said that the firm was cutting 4,000 jobs, almost 6 percent of its workforce. Hemsley said it expects to lose 800,000 commercial members this year, about 100,000 more than earlier forecast.

Besides cutting costs, Hemsley said, UnitedHealth was working hard to strengthen local markets on a "case-by-case" basis. The company is facing stiff competition from Blue Cross and Blue Shield in several key markets, and recently hired away a top executive, Gail Boudreaux, from the Blues.

Analysts were skeptical.

"UnitedHealth is facing a very difficult road ahead," wrote Matthew Borsch of Goldman Sachs a day after the call. Borsch has a "neutral" rating on the company's stock.

"The key risk is that these cuts could impair an already strained operation," he said.

Sheryl Skolnick, an analyst with CRT Capital Group, fretted that any turnaround would take longer and cost more than UnitedHealth indicated.

"It is our strong view that the recent forecast revisions are not likely to be the last bad news from UNH [UnitedHealth Group]," Skolnick said in a July 7 report, which maintained a "hold" recommendation.

A day later, Doug Simpson of Merrill Lynch downgraded a slate of health insurance stocks including UnitedHealth, which he tagged a "sell." Simpson is the only one so far with a sell recommendation on the company.

Even the lawsuit settlement may not provide the clean break for which UnitedHealth hopes. The company proposed paying $895 million to settle a class-action lawsuit led by the California Public Employees' Retirement System (CalPERS), which still needs to be approved by a judge.

But former UnitedHealth CEO William McGuire and former general counsel David Lubben are not part of the settlement, and CalPERS lawyers have said they will continue to pursue the case.

Chen May Yee • 612- 673-7434