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Economy: From bad to worse?

Tired of the drumbeat of discouraging economic news? With growth stagnant, unemployment and consumer prices rising as home prices sink, the beat is likely to go on.

Last update: March 27, 2008 - 11:15 PM

The economy nearly sputtered out at the end of 2007 -- and it's probably faring even worse now. The Commerce Department reported Thursday that gross domestic product increased at a feeble 0.6 percent annual rate in the October-to-December quarter -- unchanged from a previous estimate a month ago.

Many economists believe growth in the current January-to-March quarter will be even weaker. A Wall Street Journal survey of 55 economists forecasts a GDP growth rate of 0.1 percent in the first quarter of 2008 and 0.4 percent in the second quarter -- right on the edge of what scholars define as a recession.

President Gary Stern of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank said U.S. inflation hasn't been as "well behaved" as he thought it would be. Speaking to reporters after a speech in London, Stern said he has been "a bit disappointed and concerned" by the recent inflation numbers. "I still expect that [inflation] is going to slow down" and return to its long-term trend, he said.

Fewer people signed up for unemployment benefits last week, although that didn't change the broader picture of a deteriorating job market. The Labor Department said jobless claims fell by 9,000 to 366,000, a better showing than many economists were forecasting. Still, unemployment is expected to rise this year.

The home foreclosure rate will rise for at least another year and residential real estate prices won't improve until 2010, said Frank Nothaft, chief economist for Freddie Mac. As a result, homeowners will see "huge increases in the average amount of time it takes to sell a house," he said.

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