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Danielle Granlund was happy, even though the box that held her new high-definition TV set was too big to carry.

She and her sister Melissa, both of Edina, "were looking for a balance between price, size and quality," and they were pleased with the 32-inch set from the Best Buy store in Eden Prairie. It will replace their mother's worn-out, 23-inch traditional analog TV.

Worn out or not, big changes are coming to analog TV, which is being replaced with digital, often high-definition (HDTV) sets, which promise bigger, sharper pictures that create a "you are there" feeling. The conversion is being pushed by a government requirement that broadcast TV stations go all-digital on Feb. 17, 2009. Cable TV and satellite providers also are adding more HDTV channels.

A couple of things holding back the revolution are HDTV prices, which are higher than those for conventional sets, and a public reluctance to replace existing TVs that work just fine. Some analysts say that completely replacing analog sets with digital sets could take 10 years -- and that there's no hurry because conventional TVs wired to relatively inexpensive converters will be able to receive digital signals.

Those factors contribute to indecision on the part of some consumers, including Joe Buffalo of Lino Lakes. He went to Ultimate Electronics in Roseville searching for a 46-inch set for his newly finished basement, but found himself trying to make sense of the subtle technical differences and big price gaps between models.

"I could almost buy two of these for one of those," he said as he studied two sets. One cost $1,800; the other was $3,200. The difference was based largely on the claim that the more expensive set displayed motion more clearly.

"I wonder if the prices will go down?" Buffalo said.

The answer, according to experts, is that HDTV prices have dropped so far in the past two years that, while there will be further price erosion in 2008, it's likely to be substantially smaller. So far, falling prices have put the sets within reach of some, but not all, mainstream buyers.

But if you need a new TV, you may not have a choice. As modestly hot products, HDTVs and other digital sets have all but replaced traditional picture-tube models in retail stores. Once the current tube-TV inventory is gone, it won't be replaced, because manufacturers aren't shipping any more to U.S. retailers.

High-definition TV sets provide either 720 or 1,080 horizontal lines on the screens. The cheapest of those are in the $400 to $500 range, and the cost goes up to more than $3,000, according to research firm DisplaySearch of Austin, Texas. A lower-resolution digital TV, with 480 horizontal lines in its picture, costs about $300.

Eye of the beholder

It's also clear that not all HDTVs produce the same picture quality, but in some ways the quality is in the eye of the beholder. Sets that have 720 lines are favored for watching sports, because the screen is "refreshed" many times a second, which minimizes the blurring of moving objects. Sets with 1,080 lines are favored for watching movies, because the pictures are sharper. Sets using LCDs, or liquid-crystal displays, are brighter than those using plasma, but plasma sets produce higher contrast between black and white. Plasma is often less expensive than LCD at screen sizes greater than 50 inches, but LCD is so much cheaper at sizes less than 42 inches that there are few plasma sets in that category.

"Neither plasma nor LCD is necessarily better," said Paul Gagnon, North American research director for DisplaySearch. "Manufacturers typically get behind one technology or the other, and they are fighting for market share."

One question shoppers should be asking is whether they need to buy an HDTV or other digital set to avoid being cut off when TV stations switch to the digital format in February 2009.

The answer is no. An analog TV will continue to work if it gets its signal by cable or satellite, or if it is supplemented with a set-top converter box for receiving over-the-air digital signals.

"There is no urgent need for the whole country to switch to HDTV," Gagnon said. It's not even clear how many of the 110 million households in the United States have switched to HDTV, although about 60 million HDTV sets have been sold in North America since 2000, he said.

Dallas market research firm Parks Associates predicts that it will be 2012 before 74 percent of U.S. households have a high-definition TV "because there will be a more gradual drop in prices over the next few years," said Harry Wang, an analyst at Parks.

The enticing $500 threshhold

There also are some question about what will drive consumers to buy HDTV once the scare factor of the 2009 digital switchover passes.

The next boost may be when the most popular set size, the 32-inch LCD model, dips below $500, the price point at which consumers usually are willing to buy new TV technology, Gagnon said.

But that may not happen until late 2009 or early 2010, he said.

"People will buy HDTVs next year because of the looming national transition to digital TV," Gagnon said. "But after February 2009, there won't be a lot to spur strong growth in HDTV sales."

Steve Alexander • 612-673-4553