
YOUR GUIDE TO THE TWIN CITIES

United and Delta are known to be considering mergers, too, but Northwest hasn't said whether it has a preference or would be the suitor.
Airline merger agreements probably would need to take shape by February for them to receive regulatory decisions before the end of the Bush administration, Northwest Airlines Chief Financial Officer Dave Davis said Tuesday.
Northwest's view on whether it is "potentially better to have something reviewed by this administration or the next is complex and evolving," Davis told Wall Street analysts in New York.
He added that Northwest's board and management are "very, very actively looking" at the "topic of consolidation and who is the right partner." Delta Air Lines and United Airlines are also known to be considering merger options. Eagan-based Northwest has not given any indication whether it has a preferred partner or is likely to initiate a deal.
Davis faced several questions about consolidation during an airline conference sponsored by Calyon Securities.
Asked about submitting a deal near the end of the Bush administration, which is considered to be generally friendly toward business, Davis responded that the timing could be "deal specific." He added, "It depends on labor support. It depends on a whole bunch of different assumptions."
From Northwest's vantage point, Davis said, "We don't have a firm line in the sand in our mind that this is a drop-dead date."
Last month, Pardus Capital Management, a hedge fund, tried to pressure Delta into launching a merger with United. Such an action could prompt other carriers to pair up, too.
Jake Brace, United's chief financial officer, reiterated United's view that "consolidation is a good thing," but at the New York conference Tuesday made no reference to a potential deal with Delta or any other carrier. "We are not standing around waiting for consolidation to happen," he said.
Ed Bastian, Delta's president and CFO, barely mentioned the consolidation issue, except to note that a board committee is studying Delta's prospects on a standalone basis and in a merger.
Northwest executives have made few public statements about consolidation, and analysts pressed Davis for more insights on Northwest's view of mergers.
Calyon analyst Ray Neidl asked Davis to define the "best partner for Northwest."
Davis wouldn't name one, but he said that a person could look at Northwest's network and "see where that network would plug in best."
Many industry observers believe Northwest and Delta make the best match by that measure, because Northwest has strong domestic hubs in the North and Delta has a huge hub in the South in Atlanta. While Northwest has a major presence in the Pacific, Delta has a strong transatlantic business and is rapidly growing across the globe. Delta has announced 20 new international destinations for 2008.
"You can look at our cost structure and see who are good matches for our costs," Davis said.
Based on a chart Davis presented, Northwest had the lowest cost per seat mile flown -- excluding fuel -- in the second quarter among the big six network carriers. United had the highest unit cost, followed by Continental, American, Delta, US Airways and Northwest. The range was 9 cents for United to 7.4 cents for Northwest.
Northwest holds a "golden share" special class of stock in Houston-based Continental that allows Northwest to block a merger involving Continental. Davis was asked to evaluate its worth.
"If a transaction was pending between Continental and another carrier, the golden share could have potentially substantial value," Davis said, but he did not offer a dollar estimate.
"Its value is essentially situational," he said. "In a world of no [industry] consolidation or no consolidation involving Continental, you could say that the golden share doesn't have that much value."
Liz Fedor • 612-673-7709
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