Thanks to Roger for the picture below who apparently has a secret to growing massive sunflowers! Good grief Roger... what are you feeding those things?
Friday was another stunningly beautiful day with near average temps, comfy dewpoints and plentiful sunshine. Note the higher clouds from PM Friday that were streaming into Minnesota from the west. This is from shower and thunderstorm activity that will eventually move in to our neck of the woods late this weekend and into most of next week.
"Further Analysis from RMS on Hurricane Hermine"
"Hurricane Hermine made landfall over northwest Florida at approximately 06:00 UTC (02:00 local time) today, Friday September 2 as a Category 1 storm on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, with maximum sustained wind speeds of 80 mph (130 km/hr). (1) RMS research has revealed measurable differences in vulnerability between northern Florida, where Hermine made landfall, and the rest of the state, with structures in northern Florida more vulnerable to wind. This is because there are significant differences in North Florida building stock, which is generally wooden-framed, compared with domestic properties in Central and South Florida where the use of masonry is more common. The buildings are also designed to sustain different wind speeds. Another possible reason for the higher vulnerability in northern Florida is that the area is more heavily wooded than highly developed Central Florida. Tree falls, especially from squalls in outer rainbands, can contribute to losses in areas that may not have received the highest winds from the core of the storm. For Hermine, this would be evident in the areas from Tampa northward to Perry. An analysis of wind-related claims from northern Florida related to Hurricane Ivan (2004) showed a higher severity of damage than wind-related claims from historical events which impacted central Florida."
HERMINE at Landfall
Here's a look at Hurricane Hermine just before landfall along the Florida coastline PM Thursday. Outer bands began whipping the state early Thursday, some of which produced severe weather with tornadoes and locally heavy rain. Interestingly, HERMINE was the first hurricane to affect the state since Hurricane Wilma in 2005, 11 years ago.
Tropical Watches and Warnings have now been extended to parts of the Northeast, including New York City, in advance of Hermine as if lifts northeast along the coast.
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED - BATTERY PARK - HARLEM - CENTRAL PARK
* WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND - PEAK WIND FORECAST: 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH
* STORM SURGE - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE POSSIBLE - PEAK STORM SURGE INUNDATION: THE POTENTIAL FOR 2-4 FEET ABOVE GROUND SOMEWHERE WITHIN SURGE PRONE AREAS - WINDOW OF CONCERN: BEGINS SUNDAY MORNING
Keeping and Eye on the Atlantic
While it may not look like much yet, NOAA's NHC is keeping an eye on this particular wave of energy as it has a low chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days... Stay tuned!
Atlantic 5 Day Outlook
The National Hurricane Center will continue to watch the wave of energy in the Central Atlantic over the next few days. At this point, the forecast calls for less than a 40% chance of tropical formation within the next 5 days.
Stunning Saturday Gives Way to a Stormier Pattern
Last count, I am up to 5 pronto pups, 4 corn on the cobs and 2 foot long hot dogs. That's nearly 10 feet of food within the first 9 days of the Fair. I don't know about you, but I feel bloated... BURP!
Despite only a couple of somewhat warm and muggy days, this year's weather has been pretty darn pleasant for the Great Minnesota Get Together! Saturday will be another blue ribbon day with mild temps, a few more clouds and a nice refreshing breeze to keep the flies off of your pork chop on-a-stick. Enjoy!
Weather looks to sour a little for the second half of our Labor Day Weekend with a few spotty showers possible late Sunday into Monday. According to MN State Climate Office, "It rains about 3 to 4 days during the 12-day run" and so far we've had 3 days of measurable precipitation at the MSP Airport. Sunday and Monday could be numbers 4 and 5 this year.
Meanwhile, Hermine along the East Coast will clog up the weather pattern closer to home, allowing showers and storms to persist much of next week. 1-3 inches of rain may fall thru Friday.
Extended Weather Outlook
SATURDAY: Sunniest, driest day of the holiday weekend with more wind. Winds: S 10-15. High: 77
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy and quiet. Winds: SSE 10. Low: 62
SUNDAY: More humid with warm winds. T-storms overnight. Winds: SE 10-15. High: 80
LABOR DAY: Warmer and muggier. Unsettled. Wetter day of the Holiday weekend. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 65. High: 84
TUESDAY: Scattered T-showers with locally heavy rain. Winds: NE 5-10. Wake-up: 67. High: 78
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy, numerous t-storms. Winds: ENE 5-10. Wake-up: 65. High: 79
THURSDAY: AM rumbles give way to some PM sun. Winds: NW 5-10. Wake-up: 63. High: 78.
FRIDAY: Sunny start, storms develop late. Winds: SE 7-12. Wake-up: 60. High: 79.
This Day in Weather History
1989: An early afternoon thunderstorm dropped 1 3/4 inch hail in Stearns and Morrison Counties.
1980: An F2 tornado results in $2.5 million in property damage, followed by an F3 tornado causing $25 million in damages in Stearns County.
1970: The record-setting hailstone fell that made Coffeyville, KS famous. It had a circumference of 17.5 inches and weighed 1.67 pounds.
1917: An earthquake is felt from Staples to Brainerd.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
Average High: 77F (Record: 97F set in 1925)
Average Low: 58F (Record: 32F set in 1974)
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
*Daylight Lost Since Yesterday: ~3mins & 1sec
*Daylight Lost Since Summer Solstice: ~2hours and 27mins
Moon Phase for September 2nd at Midnight
2.9 Days Since New Moon
Weather Outlook Saturday
Saturday looks like another beautiful day with highs close to average, low humidity values and some sunshine. There will be a little more cloud cover than what we had over the past few days, but we will stay dry!
Weather Outlook Saturday
Winds will be a little breezy on Saturday once again with sustained winds in the 10 to 15mph range. Some spots across central and western Minnesota could see wind gusts up to 20 to 25mph through the afternoon.
Weather Outlook Saturday
Again, Saturday looks like another mostly dry day with a few clouds moving in from the Dakotas. If we see any precipitation on Saturday, it would be late and should stay mainly across far western Minnesota.
The simulated radar from AM Saturday to PM Monday suggests quiet conditions persisting through much of Saturday, however, it appears that a few spotty showers/storms may start to develop and spread through the regions as we approach the late weekend timeframe.
Here's the rainfall potential through PM Monday, which suggests a fairly decent surge of moisture starting to move into the western part of the state by late weekend. Note that rainfall tallies look quite a bit more impressive across the northwestern part of the state with some 1" to 2" amounts possible.
Thunder Threat Saturday
Thunderstorms will slowly push east over the next few days and slowly our chance of thunder will increase. Our best chance of thunder across the state won't really arrive until late Sunday and into Monday, however, there maybe a few spotty rumbles across the state PM Saturday.
Thunder Threat Sunday
Sunday sees a little better chance of storms late in the day across the eastern part of North and South Dakota, some of which could be a little on the strong to possibly severe side. Whatever develops there could slide into far western Minnesota late Sunday evening.
Severe Threat Monday
As the unsettle weather nears, strong to severe storms may develop late Monday...
...CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY... THE FORECAST SCENARIO ON DAY 3/MONDAY IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF DAY 2/SUNDAY...EXCEPT SHIFTED NORTHEAST. THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL NOT MOVE MUCH...BUT A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL MIGRATE THROUGH STRONGER BELT OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL BE CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL SD AT 12Z MONDAY AND TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO CENTRAL NEB AND EASTERN MN BY TUESDAY MORNING. RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE EASTERN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY REGION ON CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF ND/SD/MN MONDAY MORNING...AND CLOUD COVER COULD INHIBIT STRONGER SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER...MOST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THERE SHOULD AT LEAST BE A NARROW...UNCAPPED AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST NEB/SOUTHEAST SD INTO CENTRAL MN. SIMILAR TO THE EXPECTED STORM EVOLUTION ON DAY 2...INITIAL SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE BEFORE UPSCALE GROWTH ENSUES. THE AREA OF HIGHER SEVERE RISK MAY SHIFT SOME IN COMING OUTLOOKS AS FINER-SCALE DETAILS OF WHERE THE SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT AND LOW EVENTUALLY RESIDE...AND ANY IMPACTS OF PRIOR CONVECTION BECOME BETTER RESOLVED. FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE MORE CONDITIONAL DUE TO WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MORE MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SHOULD A STORM DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE...STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
7 Day Rainfall Outlook
The sunny, dry, comfortable weather as of late certainly has been a treat. Enjoy it while you can because unsettled and wetter weather returns late weekend into next week. According to NOAA's WPC, the 7 day rainfall forecast suggests fairly widespread 1" to 3"+ rainfall through the end of next week.
Extended Weather Outlook
The extended temperature outlook through the first full week of September suggests a bit of a warm up by the end of the weekend and into early next week with muggier dewpoints as well. However, it appears that it won't last too long as readings settle back to near normal levels by the end of the week. We may even be looking at temps below average as we approach mid September.
6 to 10 Day Temp Outlook
According to NOAA's CPC, the 6 to 10 day temperature outlook suggests a fairly decent chance of warmer than normal conditions settling in around the Great Lakes Region during the first full week of September. A bigger blob of cooler air will settle in across the Northwestern part of the country, which may drift our way as we approach the 2nd weekend of the month.
6 to 10 Day Temp Outlook
The national outlook suggests that much of the eastern part of the country will remain above average, however, there will be a fairly significant pocket of below average temps across the central and northern Rockies.
High Elevation Snow?
Take a look at this! The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for parts of western Montana above 7000ft. for snowfall accumulations that could approach 2" to 5" from Sunday into Monday.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO NOON MDT MONDAY ABOVE 6000 FEET... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MISSOULA HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ABOVE 6000 FEET... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO NOON MDT MONDAY.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:1 TO 2 INCHES AROUND 6000 FEET WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET.
* IMPACTS/TIMING: AN EARLY SEASON STORM WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING IN SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA AND TRACK NORTH TOWARD CANADA MONDAY AFTERNOON. UNUSUALLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE SNOW ABOVE 6000 FEET. AREAS OF CONCERN ARE MAINLY BACKCOUNTRY ROADS AND RECREATIONAL AREAS ABOVE 6000 FEET...SUCH AS GEORGETOWN LAKE AND SKALKAHO PASS. CAMPERS...HIKERS...AND HUNTERS SHOULD PLAN FOR RAW AND WINTRY BACKCOUNTRY CONDITIONS IN THESE EFFECTED AREAS STARTING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOST TRAIL PASS COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME WITH THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION...THOUGH EXPECTED TO MELT FAIRLY QUICKLY.
National Weather Outlook
The national weather outlook shows Hermine lifting northeast along the coast, which in turn will have impacts across the rest of the nation. Tropical systems tend to have ripple effects on other weather systems, so things don't move along as quickly as they otherwise would. High pressure will linger a little longer across the Great Lakes and unsettled, wetter weather will linger across the Plains over the next few days as Hermine creates a traffic jam in the East.
According to NOAA's WPC, the 5 day forecast suggests heavier rain continuing along the Eastern Seaboard as Hermine lifts northeast along the coast. Meanwhile, dry weather persists in the Eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley as high pressure dominates. Persistent showers and storms will find themselves through the Intermountain-west and into the Midwest through early next week.
Lester in the Pacific
Here's a view of Hurricane Lester in the Central Pacific Ocean, which will be bearing down on the Hawaiian Islands as we head into the weekend. As of PM Thursday, Lester was a category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 120mph with a very defined eyewall; see below.
According to NOAA's CPHC, Lester will make a very close call with the Hawaiian Islands, but still bring some fairly significant impacts to those areas. Hurricane Watches have been posted for Maui as Lester drifts northwest.
Thanks for checking in and have a great end of your week and weekend ahead!
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