Much has been made of Twins fans booing Joe Mauer at Target Field this year. Personally, I'm not offended by it. It's how some invested fans choose to express their disappointment and frustration. They paid for the tickets that help pay the players' enormous salaries, so those in attendance should be free to voice their displeasure with what's happening. In this case, it's not totally unjustified.

Not that I myself would ever boo Mauer. There have been ball players in this game's long history who have been deserving of booing – scumbags, entitled pricks and racists among them – but No. 7 is not (at least to my knowledge) any of those things.

He's a very handsomely paid athlete who is not currently providing the value that the Twins hoped for and expected when they inked him to a $184 million contract extension three years ago. I doubt it's his fault.

It's not like Mauer isn't trying, which is why the booing strikes me as odd. By all accounts, he worked out like a maniac during the offseason, desperate to distance himself from the nightmare season that was 2011. But I do wonder if it's a little too late, and the years of punishment behind the plate have fundamentally weakened him as a hitter.

After grounding out three times on Wednesday, Mauer is now hitting .270/.391/.365 on the campaign. That's far from embarrassing, but it's also quite similar to the .287/.360/.368 line he finished with last year, when he admitted he never felt right all season. Last year Mauer totaled three home runs and 15 doubles in 333 plate appearances. This year, at his current pace, he'll have 16 doubles and two homers when he reaches that PA mark. That's a real lack of power, and it stems from an increasingly extreme ground ball rate.

His approach at the plate has been excellent. He's striking out at a measly 9.3 percent clip (ninth-lowest in the majors) and he's on pace to draw more than 100 walks. Yet when he puts the ball in play, he rarely does so with authority. His 58.7 percent grounder rate eclipses last year's 55.4, which was at the time a career high.

He's still a great, professional hitter, but when I see him now I just don't see signs of the the dominant player who in 2009 hit .365 with 28 homers. I don't even see the guy who in 2010 hit .327 with 43 doubles. It was some hybrid of those models that the Twins hoped they'd be getting at least in the early years of his contract, but right now Mauer appears headed toward rather quickly becoming a first baseman and No. 2 hitter who takes great at-bats and gets on base a ton but doesn't hit for much power or run well.

That's not a $23 million franchise centerpiece. It's Doug Mientkiewicz. And that's why the people boo.

But Mauer is out there on the field every day, trying to get things figured out, so you won't hear me joining the chorus. Catching for many years takes a toll, even on the most pristine of athletes. I wrote an article last year framed around one of my favorite quotes from Johnny Bench: "A catcher and his body are like an outlaw and his horse. He's got to ride that nag till it drops."

Bench was one of many backstops who have either retired early, switched positions or seen their production wane rapidly with age. I'll name another example – one with parallels to Mauer that cannot be ignored: Jason Kendall.

Kendall spent the first nine years of his career in Pittsburgh, serving as a full-time catcher and hitting .306/.387/.418 while averaging eight home runs. In 2005, at age 30, he was traded to the Oakland A's, and over the next six years he would hit .260/.333/.318 while hitting eight home runs total.

Kendall retired at age 36, which will be Mauer's age when his contract with the Twins is up.

I don’t know if these are questions, or thoughts, of forum topics, but after a 13-hour day, I’m pretty much free associating. Let’s see what happens.

Because Fourth Place Is Just Five Games Away?
Why is Carl Pavano pitching? The Twins long term strategy regarding Pavano involves him having enough success to get some value for him at the trade deadline, right? What is the purpose of trotting him out there at 80% to look below average? Get him healthy, let him string a strong month or so together and then shop him in July. Doesn’t this have to be the strategy? Why isn’t this the strategy?

Or Maybe It Was Andy’s Whoopie Cushion.
Liriano was Liriano. To me, the most encouraging sign wasn’t that he got the first five guys out, or that he bounced back to get out of the second inning after almost completely falling apart, or that he struck out three guys. It was that he smiled and laughed on the bench with Rick Anderson for the first time since last May.

Including The Door On Your Wait Out.
Capps hasn’t been bad this year, though last night was the second game he cost the Twins. I won’t cite how many games he’s “saved” as evidence, but I think it’s worth noting that his WPA is still in positive territory even after losing 30 points last night. Mostly he’s still just Matt Capps – he has been for years, so he should know how by now.
For all the talk about his new pitch, he’s got the same strikeout rate, and a high home run rate, though he’s walking fewer guys. To me, he’s in the same boat as Pavano – the team needs to do whatever they can to boost his value, and if that means closing, then close away.

Plus, We’ll Resemble The Pirates
Ryan Doumit’s OPS is up to .763 after last night’s game, which is a lot closer to the bat I thought we were getting. That’s a season high mark – he was as low as 550 before he broke out in that Sunday game in Seattle, which was just a little over a week ago.

But the better news is that he’s worked out far better than I ever thought he would so far. His defense at catcher is better than we had heard. He’s hitting left-handers better than I had anticipated (albeit without any power). And he’s been healthy. He’s also been the ideal guy to play on a team with Joe Mauer. I’m anxious to move a lot of guys at the trade deadline, but Doumit isn’t one of them. I don’t know what it would take to sign the 31-year-old, and I’d want to limit the years, but he looks like a hell of a good fit for this team for the next few years.

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Ever heard of Kevn Gausman? You likely will. He's a college pitcher who is projected as one of the top picks in the upcoming amateur draft. He's also interviewed over at Twins Daily.

Aaron and John talk about the latest roster shakeup, including Danny Valencia's demotion to Triple-A and Francisco Liriano's move to the bullpen, get a call from Aaron's mom for Mother's Day, marvel at Scott Diamond's unexpected gems, make their PickPointz picks and name last week's winners, and wonder what the future holds for Trevor Plouffe and Joe Benson. Here are:

• the podcasts
• the rss feed if you want to subscribe and
• the podcast on iTunes

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At Twins Daily this weekend:

• Seth had a live chat.
• There was lots and lots of minor league news.
• Thryloss started counting down possible pitching prospects for the amaeteur draft.
• The Adopt a Prospect forum congratulated Scott Diamond and debated the bad news about prospect Alex Wimmers.

Now, many wonks will argue comparing 93 plate appearances to the outcome of another 36 plate appearances is the ultimate exercise in small sample size analysis. Additionally, the fact that he has faced a regiment of Jered Weaver (twice) and Felix Hernandez may lend credence to the notion that he is just slumping in May. However, because this performance drop-off started with the foul ball incident, it is hard to ignore the influence a shot to a load bearing limb may have on his swing.  You have to wonder if Mauer is currently hurting more than he wants everyone to believe.

At the start of the season, Mauer was a line drive machine. In the season’s first month, nearly 30% of all balls off of his bat were hit on a line. So far this month, he has managed to hit just one line drive in 36 plate appearances since absorbing the Pena foul ball. The majority of his balls in play have been grounders.

Without the assistance of the high percentage of line drives and the huge increase in ground balls, it is easy to see why Mauer’s numbers have taken a tumble.  

Visually, through the monthly spray charts found at TexasLeaguers.com, we find that he has struggled to pull the ball in May as effectively as he did in April:

Mauer’s left knee, the one Pena’s foul ball ricocheted off of, has been a source of pain for him in the past. In 2010, he had arthroscopic surgery after tissue inflammation experienced throughout the season. Last year, his bi-lateral leg weakness was concocted from what Mauer described as leg soreness from not properly working out his lower half following the 2010 arthroscopic surgery. If it was indeed re-aggravated, the left knee – the one he would pivot and drive off of during his swing – would keep him from pulling the ball with authority.

While the shot to the knee may be downplayed in the media, it would seem that the Twins have taken precautionary measures that would suggest that they are a bit more concerned about him. This month, manager Ron Gardenhire clearly recognized the need to alleviate the pressure on Mauer’s knees as since sitting out post-foul tip he has played nine games and only two behind the plate. Meanwhile, the front office, perhaps concerned over his resiliency, recalled Drew Butera from Rochester to serve as the third catcher in spite of a thin bench.

To Mauer’s credit, the majority of the ribbing last year appeared to be focused on his inability to work his way into the lineup and that his “bi-lateral” injuries were simply an excuse to avoid playing for a terrible team. This season, he’s played 30 of the 31 total contests, perhaps proving to his critics that he can play through the pain. Unfortunately, if he is in pain stemming from the foul ball, his performance has obviously taken a downturn.

Understandably, with Justin Morneau unable to play, the Twins are counting on their $23 Million Dollar Man to get out there and play. At the same time, if the team wants to ensure that he is available throughout the duration of the season, they may need to sit him a little more regularly than they have been doing up to this point. 

Over at Twins Daily:

• Nick Nelson wonders if the Twins are Sleeping on Slama.
• Last night's games throughout the organization were summarized by Seth Stohs.
• Give your opinion on how much influence you believe a manager like Ron Gardenhire actually has over a ballclub.

The Twins just finished a three game series against the Angels, and on Thursday night, they will start a four game set at Target Field against the Toronto Blue Jays. To say that the Blue Jays have had the Twins numbers in recent years is a massive understatement. Let’s take a look:

 

In 2011, the Twins were really bad and the Blue Jays were good, but the domination was uncanny. Even in recent years when the Twins have been very good and the Blue Jays were not good, the Jays had the Twins number. The one win the Twins got came in the third game and was 4-3 decision in which Nick Blackburn topped lefty Brett Cecil. Cecil was sent back to AA to start the 2012 season (no, not just because he lost to the Twins).

In those six games in 2011, the Blue Jays collected 10 doubles, three triples and 13 home runs against the Twins. Jose Bautista led the way. He had one double and in incredible seven home runs, including three home runs in the final meeting of these teams. Catcher JP Arencibia knocked a double, a triple and three home runs against the Twins. Seemingly every Blue Jays hitter contributed.

The Blue Jays enter this series with a 17-14 record while the Twins are at 8-22. Their record is as much about their pitching as it is about their hitting. The Twins are lucky in that they don’t have to face Brandon Morrow, but Henderson Alvarez, Ricky Romero, Kyle Drabek and Drew Hutchinson will get to face Twins hitters.

(note – Blue Jays’ player stats are through Tuesday, unless noted)

What would you have said if, a little over a month into the season, I told you that the two best hitters for the Blue Jays were Edwin Encarnacion and Kelly Johnson. Encarnacion is hitting .270/.326/.574 with eight doubles, nine homers (10^th homer on Wednesday) and 25 RBI. Johnson is hitting .269/.383/.472 with a double, seven homers and 18 RBI.

Would you have believed me if I had told you that Jose Bautista would have a sub-700 OPS? Coming into the Twins series, Bautista is hitting just .187/.318/.355 (.673) with three doubles and five home runs. Yet, they have four hitters performing even worse than that!

• JP Arencibia - .187/.318/.355 (.654) with five doubles and two homers.
• Colby Rasmus - .206/.274/.363 (.637) with three doubles, two triples and three homers.
• Yunel Escobar - .248/.275/.309 (.624) with five doubles, one triple and one home run.
• Adam Lind - .186/.275/.309 (.585) with six doubles and two home runs.

The Twins will send Jason Marquis, PJ Walters, Nick Blackburn and Scott Diamond to the mound. The Jays won on Wednesday to break a three-game losing streak. The Twins did a nice job of keeping Albert Pujols cold. Can they do the same with Jose Bautista?

Well, that’s why they play the games!
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The Twins postgame transactions on Wednesday night created a lot of discussion at Twins Daily. John wrote about the Changing Focus that the moves represent. Yesterday, Parker asked What Happened to Chris Parmelee?

Twins Fan from Afar wrote the daily Twins Minor League Scores and Notes article. And be sure to look a little more into the Adopt-a-Prospect forums.

The true importance of the strikeout is a subject of much debate in baseball circles. It is generally agreed, though, that the K is a powerful weapon for pitchers, one with strengths (it's the most reliable method of recording an out) and weaknesses (pitching for strikeouts requires more pitches and taxes the arm).

Dennis Brackin wrote a great piece last week on the subject of pitching to contact, which is a philosophy that the Twins have notoriously espoused. Brackin's article sought to clarify some misconceptions about the phrase. Most notably, that coaches are actively encouraging pitchers not to strike anyone out.

A severe strikeout deficiency is currently the greatest downfall for Minnesota's pitching staff, but it's not the coaching approach that is at issue. It's the personnel.

For whatever reason, the Twins have strayed away more and more from stocking the roster with strikeout pitchers in recent years. Maybe because it's cheaper, or maybe because the organization lacks the scouting chops to find quality power arms. In any case, the amount of contact that Twins pitchers are now allowing makes it nearly impossible to succeed.

The chart below, which I put together as part of the Twins scorecard content for next week's series against the Indians (only $1 at the stadium!) paints a picture of how Twins pitching staffs have evolved over the years from a K-rate perspective, and how their results have been impacted:

As you can see, the Twins weren't always a contact-heavy staff. In fact, back in 2006 they led the league in whiffs per nine innings, and ranked second in ERA. Back then, Johan Santana was leading the rotation and Joe Nathan the bullpen.

Now, Carl Pavano is the No. 1 starter and Matt Capps the closer. Those two set the tone for a staff that pitches to contact at an outrageously extreme rate. Since the start of last year, Pavano has struck out a lower percentage of hitters (10.9%) than any starting pitcher in baseball other than Jamie Moyer, who is 49, and Brad Penny, who was just released by a Japanese team. Meanwhile, Capps has struck out a lower percentage (12.4%) than any reliever other than Aaron Laffey and Erasmo Ramirez, both of whom are presently in Triple-A.

The major leagues as a whole are averaging 7.3 K/9 this year. Excluding Scott Diamond, who's pitched once, the Twins currently have two pitchers on their entire staff with a K-rate above that mark: Glen Perkins and Jared Burton. As a team, Minnesota is averaging 5.3 strikeouts per nine innings; if that were to hold, it would be the lowest figure for an MLB club since the 2003 Tigers averaged 4.8. That team also lost 119 games. (Incidentally, the Twins are currently on pace to lose 117).

As a general philosophy, telling hurlers to pitch to contact -- as in, trust your stuff and don't be afraid to throw in the zone early in the count -- isn't so bad. It's been Rick Anderson's calling card for many years. But at this point, the Twins have completely abandoned the punch-out. There are basically no starting pitchers in the entire organization who excel at missing bats.

That needs to change. When you allow as much contact as this team currently is, you're going to struggle to limit hits and runs regardless of how good your defense is.

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Once you're done here, head on over to Twins Daily, where today you can find:

* A Tuesday night minor-league round-up from Cody Christie.

* A lesson on the Twins' history with pitchers in the draft from Adam Krueger.

* A report on the Beloit Rock Cats via Twins Fan From Afar.