Numbers lie sometimes. I know when I watch the presidential debates numbers can say just about anything. The same economy can show growth or recession depending on view point. Or like in the upcoming Nov. 6, Rockford referendum, I have watched opposition to passing the upcoming referendum become quite creative in explaining why they refuse to support their children in education. Somehow, being 137th out of 156 (something like that) is a good thing when paying property tax toward schooling. Never mind that nearby Delano and Buffalo kids get two or three times as much money from citizens. They can twist numbers faster than Adrian Peterson runs through a five hole.
And so looking at the team statistics of Sunday's game one can be fooled. The overall yards were 356 to 209 in favor of Arizona. Arizona had 21 first downs to a mere 12 by the Vikings. The Cardinals held the ball for over 35 minutes in the game, compared to just under 25 for Minnesota. Christian Ponder threw for 58 yards. You would think we lost by a few touchdowns.
I could pull up numbers in such a way that you would know Minnesota won. Like Adrian Peterson running 23 times for 153 yards and a touchdown. Or that the defense managed seven sacks and two turnovers. Or holding Arizona to 50% in the red zone. The Vikings being 100% in the red zone. Or 82 penalty yards vs. Arizona compared to 35 vs. Minnesota.The Cardinals 0-2 on 4th downs..
Yes, there are numbers that can say anything.
But the brightest number is the 5-2 record we now hold. There are only a few teams in the entire NFL who can claim better (Atlanta, Houston, Chicago). If the playoffs magically began today our Vikings would be in. But there is much more football to play.
The NFC North presently has the best overall record in football. Barring a tie on Monday Night, the NFC North's overall record will be 16-10. The next closest divisional overall record is the NFC West at 16-12. The only other winning division is the NFC East at 14-12.
We have our work cut out for us.
Cynics will point to the schedule ahead. The Packers are hot. The Bears are too. They are four of our remaining nine games. Add Houston and Seattle, and we have a tough road ahead.
One set of numbers I believe that lie less than others is points for vs. points against. In a single game it is crucial. Over a half of a season it is a trend. The present plus/minus leaders in the NFL are as follows (with record in parentheses):
1. Houston (6-1) + 88
2. Chicago (4-1) + 78
3. New York Giants (5-2) + 68
4. San Francisco (5-2) + 65
5. Atlanta (6-0) + 58
6. New England (4-3) + 54
7. Minnesota (5-2) + 36
8. Green Bay (4-3) + 29
9. Baltimore (5-2) + 13
10. San Diego (3-3) + 11
11. Seattle (4-3) + 10
12. Pittsburgh (3-3) + 8
13. Arizona (4-3) + 6
14. Miami (3-3) +3
Strength of schedule play an important role in this statistic, but you can only beat whom you play. At the end of seven weeks, Minnesota has done admirably vs. their schedule. And with the upcoming game Thursday vs. Tampa Bay, Minnesota can solidify its' hold on a playoff spot. For now..
And for all the Christian Ponder worriers/haters remember, it is his 2nd year in the league. Last week he threw for 350 yards and we lost. Maybe his role is more to balance an attack then lead it. I would think our money be best invested in AP and that offensive line.
Running parting one line thoughts...
Save a little love for Jared Allen, Kevin Williams, Letroy Guion, and Brian Robison. They are coming on.
Has a safety ever had so much positive impact in Minnesota history as Harrison Smith's rookie season?
Did Chris Cook really just shut down Larry Fitzgerald?
Is Stephens-Howling related to Barry Sanders or did we struggle tackling?
Did we have six three and outs in 2nd half because of poor coaching or fear of mistakes?
Was our 1-10 3rd down efforts someone's fault? How do you win getting 10% 3rd down conversions?
Was Percy Harvin's TD return that was nullified a mental set back?
How did Arizona start 4-0?
When we dissected the schedule in the summer, we all knew that the first half was better than the second. Home games vs. the Jaguars, Titans, Cardinals, and Bucs were winnable. And then there was the powerful 49ers, who most assumed would defeat us along with road games vs. Redskins and Lions. Naturally, we would win the game vs. the Colts.Sic.
A 5-3 start. Possible, with five home games. (Sure, most people thought we would not be any better than last year's 3-13 team. Naysayers were baying 4-12 and 2-14. But we eternal purple optimists could see a better season. And the purple kool-aid drinkers envisioned the playoffs; like they do every year.) We knew then the schedule changed like the beginning of a Minnesota winter. Games at Seattle, Chicago, Green Bay, and later Houston. Home games against our division rivals. Only a single game in St. Louis appeared plausible for an easy win,
Maybe a 2-6 finish, given winning at least one home game vs. division. That was the thinking. A 7-9 season would be an improvement. Hope for the future. And realistic. Maybe 6-10 or 8-8 if things worked out well or not. A good year compared to the last few.
But something happened in 2012. Like magic. Maybe it was the community leaders rallying behind the team and helping pass the stadium bill. Maybe it was maturation of young players, or the addition of even younger. The front office? Leslie Frazier? Whatever happened, we got back our defense. The good one.
You noticed it Game One vs. Jacksonville. Maybe not so much Game Two vs. the Colts. But when Minnesota held both the 49ers and Lions to thirteen points, you knew. The Titans' win affirmed the obvious: we have a very good defense in 2012. Even in the 38-26 loss to Washington, two TDs came off of Christian Ponder turnovers deep in our territory. And only the immensely talented Robert Griffin III could run for 138 yards and two scores. Alfred Morris was bottled up. The Redskins threw for under 200 yards.
(Interesting to note that our two losses have come to the top two rookie quarterbacks.)
And now we enter the game vs. Arizona with expectations of winning. And certainly we will be favored against Tampa Bay the following Thursday. Two wins and we would end the first half 6-2. At 6-2 we would need a 4-4 finish to dream playoffs...
Suddenly the purple kool-aid has tainted the well. I see Christian Ponder returning to protecting the football, and trading 350 yard games for ball control. I see Jerome Simpson returning to the lineup, staying there, and producing down field. I see Adrian Peterson taking over the NFL rushing lead as he remains injury free all year (including recent ankle). Matt Kalil All-Pro in his rookie season. Jared Allen going nuts with sacks. Chad Greenway tackling everyone. Harrison Smith making a difference.Solid cornerback play. Winning all three division home games in the second half. Lots of Percy Harvin...
I am finding it difficult to remember just how bad we were last year. I know there were close games early, but after that it is hazy..
I may have a fever.
Percy Harvin made a statement instantly. Jerome Felton made a key block on the outside and he was gone. Minnesota would take a 7-0 lead in seconds. Later in the game, Marcus Sherels, refusing to fair catch in traffic, shook off a few arm tackles and raced into the endzone as well. Two return touchdowns and a 20-13 win over Detroit.
I cannot recall a game where Minnesota returned both a kickoff and a punt in the same game. And while I can recall games where the Vikings have won without scoring an offensive TD, it has been a long while. The 2009 and 1998 NFC Championship teams both featured outstanding offenses with parts of a good defense. But how long since 10-3 wins? Take away the returns and Minnesota's offense produced two field goals. Six points and a victory.
Adrian Peterson kept the possession clock near even as he carved through the Lions defense. Christian Ponder avoided mistakes. Add a gutsy call by Bill Musgrave late in the game passing to new 2012 addition Jerome Simpson, and you have enough to win this year.
Kudos to everyone associated with the defense. The defensive line had five sacks, Letroy Guion and Everson Griffen each with two. Chad Greenway had eleven tackles, Antoine WInfield deflected passes and had ten tackles. Rookie Harrison Smith saved a touchdown with a hard hit on Calvin Johnson.Josh Robinson looked good in coverage. A total team defensive effort.
And that is what has been missing since the domination of the 1970s. Sure we have had many playoff teams, great offenses, but when it came to playoff games we could not stop the best teams in the NFL. Not sure who to thank, or if it will last, but for right now Minnesota is winning with a hard-hitting defense.
Like old times.
Fingers will stop pointing at Leslie Frazier, as he raises his Northern record to 1-8. The team is playing hard. Adrian is running like a purple beast. Percy Harvin continues to electrify the fan base. And we have a good pass rush with a run stopping front seven. If these young defensive backs like Smith, Robinson, and Chris Cook keep improving, we might just get cocky.
It is good to be a (Vi)King again...
I grew up in the 1970s watching the Vikings dominate regular seasons and early playoffs. My first impressions of rival division teams were not good. The Packers were horrible. The Bears so bad that their quarterback was their best rusher in an era where QBs stayed in the pocket. And then there was Detroit. I had been told by adults it was a once proud organization, but I never witnessed that. The Lions were an afterthought mostly in those days.
The last few seasons have given me a chance to sympathize more with those losing teams. How many times last year were we "in" games, only to lose in the second half? Sometimes teams can play well and lose. Often. A fortuitous bounce, a bad call can bring a swift change in momentum. Other times teams deserve to lose.
Minnesota's effort last week vs. the 49ers was one in which I would have been happy win or lose. We had a swagger about the defense. We stopped our opponent repeatedly late in the game. We won by being the more physical team. It reminded me of those teams from the 1970s. The ones we expected to win.
Now heading to Detroit we must do the same. The Lions are reeling from their 44-41 OT loss at Tennessee. They have issues with injuries. Their pass defense is ranked 20th. They have surrendered over 31 points per game. They are a loss waiting to happen if someone comes in playing well. And that is how Minnesota played last week. Against a tough team, the Vikings moved the ball, hit hard, and played smart. They will need to do it again as the Lions have to realize the severity in which they need this divisional win so early in the season.
What is that winning formula?
1. Run Adrian Peterson. AP has 58 carries after three games for 230 yards and two touchdowns. He is running hard. With Toby Gerhart' suffering from a ball-handling sickness last week, Minnesota will need Peterson early and often.
2. Continue to utilize Kyle Rudolph. Christian Ponder has looked good, and Rudolph is probably the best target near the end zone. Rudolph has three TDs already, and is much in the same mold as TEs like the Saints' Jimmy Graham and the Patriots' Rob Gronkowski. Now with Jerome Simpson joining Percy Harvin Minnesota appears more dangerous through the air. Pass protective defenses tend to have more troubles matching up with tight ends. And now Minnesota has a very good one.
3. A strong pass rush. Minnesota is holding opponents to less than twenty points a game, and our pass defense is a big reason why. Losing Mistral Raymond is tough, but Jamarca Sanford seemed to step up nicely in his replacement. But the secondary is mostly young and inexperienced outside of Antoine Winfield. The best way to keep defensive backs unexposed is to provide a good pass rush. And Minnesota has done just that. Kevin Williams looks strong once again, Jared Allen sniffing sacks on nearly every pass, and solid contributions from the others. Even the linebackers look good in blitz or pass coverage. Better than in a long time.
4. Toughness. Cliche's aside, that is what has been missing. Mental and physical toughness win games. From the 7th grade team I coach to the high school, college, and professionals we watch. Whoever hits harder, fights through being hurt, or sucks it up when they are exhausted seems to come out ahead. The Purple People Eaters had it, famous for longevity, toughness, and instilling fear. I want that back.
This week Minnesota may further grow in their learning how to be a winning team again. They may not. But if they play like last week it will be something even more. It will be the return of winning-type football.
And that is what we have been missing for a couple of years.
It was hard to believe, what we saw that is. I am a Vikings' optimist, but I did not see us dominating in such a way as to feel confident. And yet as Toby Gerhart handed his old coach chance after chance, I knew we would still hold.
Minnesota's defense held San Francisco to 280 total yards. They rushed for a mere 89. They sacked Alex Smith three times, with Jared Allen's first seasonal sack and forced fumble sealing the game. Or was it Josh Robinson's late pick? Whichever, the Vikings won despite punting or fumbling their last five offensive series.
It was mostly defense that gave fans a sudden swagger. Chad Greenway was everywhere, totaling 13 tackles. Alex Smith was pressured repeatedly by the defensive line, forcing incompletions where touchdowns used to exist. And the secondary played well. Really. Well, except for a few near plays.
This case in point was highlighted by the Purple's response to the 94-yard kick return by the 49ers' Williams in the early 2nd half. Minnesota held San Francisco to a field goal, gaining only three yards. Then, the 49ers marched 86 yards and scored a touchdown in the subsequent possession. It was beginning to look like our formula for losing in early 2011. But not this year.. The last five 49ers' drives netted 65 yards combined, with three turnovers, two punts, and a rare 'three-and-out'. Minnesota proudly diplayed a tough defense. All game.
Last week's loss to the Colts had most of us feeling sour. A golden opportunity to go 2-0 wasted. The pessimists took over. They chastised Frazier and Musgrave. They wondered about Christian Ponder. And they lamented about the defense.
Where are they now?
Yes, I know, do not get too excited, it is only three weeks into a season coming off of two losing ones. But did you see some of the statistics of this game? How about the fact that Minnesota held the ball for 33:28 compared to 26:32 for the 49ers. We had 25 first downs. We were 7-14 in 3rd down conversions. Adrian Peterson had 107 total yards. Percy Harvin had 98. And Ponder did not get sacked nor intercepted.
Things are finer in Minnesota than they have been in a long time.
** On a sad note, I say farewell to Roger Lipelt. He coached my boys at Providence Academy, and my brother-in-law at Wayzata many years ago. A great man whom I will remember for charitable work, positive outlook, faith, and clever sayings. When I coach the 7th graders I hear myself saying 'this kid could play Fridays or Saturdays'. And I will always remember my boys taking a knee on the sidelines of every Lions' play. Always. Roger made a difference in so many lives.
Roger died of cancer after a glorious battle in which he taught us how to do that, too. Always coaching.
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