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TwinsCentric was formed by Twins super-bloggers Seth Stohs, Nick Nelson, Parker Hageman and John Bonnes. Together they publish at TwinsDaily.com and have authored books, e-books and magazines that provide independent and in-depth coverage of the Minnesota Twins from a fan's perspective. You can contact them at TwinsCentric@gmail.com.

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Posts about The draft

TwinsCentric: Twins Top 50 Prospects (Part 3: 21-30)

Posted by: Seth Stohs Updated: May 24, 2012 - 10:35 AM

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Today, we continue our trek through my Top 50 Twins Prospects list by looking at my choices for prospects 21 through 30. Yesterday we looked at prospects 31-40, and the day before I presented prospects 41 through 50. I think that this 21-30 group is interesting. You still have some young players who have great potential but haven’t quite reached it... yet. You have a couple of players who have been ranked quite a bit higher who, for whatever reason, have fallen and are looking to move back up.

Without further ado, let’s get to the list. Here are my choices for Twins Prospects 21-30:

#30 –Jason Wheeler, LHP

Those that follow the Northwoods League may remember that Wheeler was the Pitcher of the Year in 2010 when he pitched for the St. Cloud River Bats. The Twins made the 21-year-old their 8th round pick last year out of Loyola Marymount. At 6-6 and 260 pounds, he has a strong build and a very good delivery. His fastball touched 93 and due to his height, he gets a good downward plane. He has an improving changeup in the low 80s and an above average slow curveball. He didn’t sign in time to pitch last year, but in his first nine starts for Beloit, he is 5-1 with a 2.82 ERA.

#29 – Miguel Munoz, RHP

The Twins signed the now-23-year-old Munoz as a 17 year old in 2005 from Caracas, Venezuela. His 2011 season was lost due to elbow problems. The Twins went the rest-rehab route with Munoz, and he has been able to avoid Tommy John surgery. He did have some surgery to remove bone chips. He has recently returned to the Ft. Myers Miracle and pitched in seven games, making two starts. He has a four-seam fastball that reaches into the mid-90s. His two-seam fastball sinks and generates lots of groundballs. He has a decent curveball, and continues to work on a slider/cutter as well.

#28 – JD Williams, OF

Miguel Sano and Eddie Rosario got all of the attention in Elizabethton in 2011, but JD Williams quietly put together some impressive numbers. He hit .324/.406/.465 with 12 doubles, a triple and four home runs. He was drafted as a shortstop out of his Florida high school in 2010. He is all about speed, one of the fastest players in the Twins organization. He moved up to Beloit this year where he is currently hitting .227/.308/.311 after a very slow start. He has eight doubles and a triple. He has already stolen eight bases.

#27 – Max Kepler, OF

It appears that Kepler will be returning to the Appy League for the 2012 season. In 2011 at Elizabethton, he hit .262/.347/.366 with 11 doubles, three triples and a home run. Solid, but unspectacular numbers in the hitter-friendly atmosphere. He was signed by the Twins in July of 2009 out of Germany. At 6-4 and 200 pounds, the 19-year-old is very strong and very fast. He has one of those classic left-handed swings. He can play all three outfield positions.

#26 – Logan Darnell, LHP

Darnell was the Twins 6th round pick in 2010 out of Kentucky. In 2011, he pitched in Beloit, Ft. Myers and made five starts in New Britain. In total, he recorded 11 wins and threw an impressive 150.1 innings. The 23 year old has the ability to throw four pitches for strikes. The southpaw’s fastball sits between88-91, occasionally hitting 93. He has a good changeup, a slider (81-84) and a slow curveball (75-76). He is currently 5-2 with a 4.53 ERA in nine starts with the Rock Cats this year.

#25 – Tom Stuifbergen, RHP

If Stuifbergen can get back on the mound soon, he could be a top 15 prospect again by the end of the season. If there has been one thing that has slowed Stuifbergen in his career, it has been injuries, and he is fighting some shoulder issues now. However, the 23 year old from the Netherlands has been very successful when he has been healthy. At 6-3, he has great control of a 2-seam and 4-seam fastball (touches 94), a curveball and a changeup. He has had a lot of success in international competition since making his name in the last WBC in a game against the Dominican Republic. Last fall, he led The Netherlands to the World Cup championship in Panama when he threw 17 shutout innings. Later, he was knighted in his homeland, so you can call him Sir Tom Stuifbergen.

#24 – Angel Morales, OF

Things started out so well for Morales, the Twins 3rd round pick in 2007 out of Puerto Rico. In 2008 in Elizabethton, he posted a 1.036 OPS with 12 doubles and 15 home runs. Since then, he has had his moments of success and still has glimpses of 5-tool talent. He missed most of 2011 with an elbow injury that finally required arthroscopic surgery. In 2012, things started out so well for Morales. Through April 24, he was 23-67 (.343). Since that date, he is 10-83 (.120). His season average is down to .220 (through 150 at bats). He has just seven extra base hits and has struck out 50 times. However, I still believe in his talent and his tools. He won’t turn 23 until late November, so I’m far from giving up on him.

#23 – Corey Williams, LHP

The Twins used their 3rd round pick last June on Vanderbilt lefty-reliever Corey Williams. At the time, there was some concern about signability. However, the Twins went $250,000 over slot to sign him. He throws a fastball between 92 and 94 mph. He has a very good changeup. He is very smart, and has very good stuff. He is currently with the Beloit Snappers where he has six saves. In 18.2 innings, he has walked ten but also struck out 21.

#22 – David Bromberg, RHP

Bromberg ended the 2010 season by making nine starts in Rochester. He was an easy choice to add to the 40 man roster following the season. In 2011, he started back with the Rock Cats in New Britain, but in late April, he took a liner and broke his forearm (which he was using to protect his face). He had surgery and missed over three months, but when he came back, he was still affected by it. He was removed from the 40 man roster after the season, cleared waivers and remains with the Twins. The 24 year old started this season with New Britain, in the bullpen. In five games as a reliever, he posted a 20.25 ERA in 4 innings. In six starts for the Rock Cats, he is 1-1 with a 1.42 ERA. In 31.2 innings, he has given up 20 hits, 13 walks and struck out 33 batters. At one point, he threw 20 consecutive scoreless innings. I’d expect him to move up to Rochester soon, and he is definitely back in the Twins picture.

#21 – Pat Dean, LHP

Dean was the Twins 3rd round pick in 2010 out of Boston College. He was hurt at the start of the 2011 season and yet he still pitched at Beloit, Ft. Myers and New Britain, although not to his talent level. He began 2012 back with Ft. Myers. He has made 10 starts and is 3-2 with a 2.78 ERA. The lefty has a fastball between 90-92 mph. He has an above average curveball and a very good changeup. He is barely striking out a batter every other inning, which is concerning, but he does have three good pitches, so those numbers should improve. I think he profiles pretty similarly to Brian Duensing.


So, there you have my choices for Twins prospects 21-30.Later this week, I’ll be back tomorrow with my next installment which will be prospects 11-20).

If you have any questions or comments on any of these prospects, please feel free to ask.

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There is a ton of great content today at Twins Daily. John wrote a great article describing the Twins right field situation. Parker wrote that Teams are throwing Justin Morneau a wrinkle. Twins Fan from Afar wrote about what happened in the Twins minor leagues on Wednesday. Jim Crikket wrote about "Purpose" Pitches. Cody Christie wrote more about Joe Benson and Rene Tosoni moving the wrong way.

Thrylos has been working on a series, looking at the Top 22 Pitchers eligible for the June draft. Today he writes about Clate Schmidt, but he's been working on these for a couple of weeks. Your House is My House wrote a blog on Ben Revere and Denard Span.

In the Forum, there is a lot of talk about the draft, including discussion on Puerto Rican SS Carlos Correa, who the Twins worked out yesterday. Of course, there is the occasional forum thread on moving Joe Mauer to 3B.

Gleeman & the Geek Ep 42: Marquis de Buzzkill

Posted by: John Bonnes Updated: May 20, 2012 - 8:53 PM

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Aaron and John talk about Jason Marquis' implosion and the state of an increasingly ugly rotation, Drew Butera and Ben Revere turning into Babe Ruth and Hank Aaron, how the Twins handled Chris Parmelee, the Van Halen concert-going experience, Nick Blackburn's return to the disabled list, their PickPointz MVP picks, and Lewwwwww! Here are:

~~~~

At Twins Daily, we're starting to get a little psyched about the draft that takes place in a couple of weeks. Not only do the Twins have the #2 pick, but they have six picks in the top 100. And it's no secret that they need some pitching. If you're wondering what draft-worthy pitchers the Twins might take, Thryloss is reviewing The Top 22 Pitchers in the 2012 MLB Draft.

The question of the week is what to do about Jason Marquis. Twins Daily is certainly asking it.

 

TwinsCentric: Contact kings

Posted by: Nick Nelson Updated: May 8, 2012 - 11:14 PM

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The true importance of the strikeout is a subject of much debate in baseball circles. It is generally agreed, though, that the K is a powerful weapon for pitchers, one with strengths (it's the most reliable method of recording an out) and weaknesses (pitching for strikeouts requires more pitches and taxes the arm).

Dennis Brackin wrote a great piece last week on the subject of pitching to contact, which is a philosophy that the Twins have notoriously espoused. Brackin's article sought to clarify some misconceptions about the phrase. Most notably, that coaches are actively encouraging pitchers not to strike anyone out.

A severe strikeout deficiency is currently the greatest downfall for Minnesota's pitching staff, but it's not the coaching approach that is at issue. It's the personnel.

For whatever reason, the Twins have strayed away more and more from stocking the roster with strikeout pitchers in recent years. Maybe because it's cheaper, or maybe because the organization lacks the scouting chops to find quality power arms. In any case, the amount of contact that Twins pitchers are now allowing makes it nearly impossible to succeed.

The chart below, which I put together as part of the Twins scorecard content for next week's series against the Indians (only $1 at the stadium!) paints a picture of how Twins pitching staffs have evolved over the years from a K-rate perspective, and how their results have been impacted:

Year
 ERA (AL Rank)
 K/9 (AL Rank)
2002 4.12 (6th) 6.6 (5th)
2003 4.41 (7th) 6.1 (9th)
2004 4.03 (1st) 6.8 (3rd)
2005 3.71 (5th) 5.9 (10th)
2006 3.95 (2nd) 7.3 (1st)
2007 4.15 (5th) 6.9 (4th)
2008 4.17 (7th) 6.1 (12th)
2009 4.50 (11th) 6.5 (10th)
2010 3.95 (5th) 6.5 (10th)
2011 4.58 (13th) 6.0 (14th)
2012 5.69 (14th) 5.3 (14th)


As you can see, the Twins weren't always a contact-heavy staff. In fact, back in 2006 they led the league in whiffs per nine innings, and ranked second in ERA. Back then, Johan Santana was leading the rotation and Joe Nathan the bullpen.

Now, Carl Pavano is the No. 1 starter and Matt Capps the closer. Those two set the tone for a staff that pitches to contact at an outrageously extreme rate. Since the start of last year, Pavano has struck out a lower percentage of hitters (10.9%) than any starting pitcher in baseball other than Jamie Moyer, who is 49, and Brad Penny, who was just released by a Japanese team. Meanwhile, Capps has struck out a lower percentage (12.4%) than any reliever other than Aaron Laffey and Erasmo Ramirez, both of whom are presently in Triple-A.

The major leagues as a whole are averaging 7.3 K/9 this year. Excluding Scott Diamond, who's pitched once, the Twins currently have two pitchers on their entire staff with a K-rate above that mark: Glen Perkins and Jared Burton. As a team, Minnesota is averaging 5.3 strikeouts per nine innings; if that were to hold, it would be the lowest figure for an MLB club since the 2003 Tigers averaged 4.8. That team also lost 119 games. (Incidentally, the Twins are currently on pace to lose 117).

As a general philosophy, telling hurlers to pitch to contact -- as in, trust your stuff and don't be afraid to throw in the zone early in the count -- isn't so bad. It's been Rick Anderson's calling card for many years. But at this point, the Twins have completely abandoned the punch-out. There are basically no starting pitchers in the entire organization who excel at missing bats.

That needs to change. When you allow as much contact as this team currently is, you're going to struggle to limit hits and runs regardless of how good your defense is.

---

Once you're done here, head on over to Twins Daily, where today you can find:

* A Tuesday night minor-league round-up from Cody Christie.

* A lesson on the Twins' history with pitchers in the draft from Adam Krueger.

* A report on the Beloit Rock Cats via Twins Fan From Afar.

Draft a College Pitcher? You sure?

Posted by: Seth Stohs Updated: April 26, 2012 - 9:25 AM

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I can’t imagine that there is a worse starting rotation in Major League Baseball than the Minnesota Twins. It was really bad last year. They added only Jason Marquis in the offseason. Scott Baker had elbow surgery that turned into Tommy John surgery. Francisco Liriano, who teased in spring training, has been so bad that he’s having a skipped start after just four starts. The Twins starting staff has an ERA over seven right now.
Understandably, the thing we hear from most Twins fans is that the Twins absolutely must use their first draft choice, the #2 overall pick, on a college pitcher. The reason is obvious. The Twins need pitching, and they need it now. The perception is that college pitchers come up quickly and make an impression. Sometimes that is the case, but I wanted to do a little bit of research to show that is the right thing to do.
I decided to go online and look up all of the college pitchers drafted in the top 25 players each year from 1980 through 2010 (31 years worth of data). I noted their draft slot so that I could compare pitchers drafted in the Top 5 compared to those drafted between 21 and 25. I honestly had no idea what I would fine. I know I many times have a preconceived notion that many high-profile college starting pitchers are often overused. There have been so many top college pitchers who get to the big leagues relatively quickly, have some quick success when they get there, and then their arm (shoulder or elbow) burns out, and they are a shell of their former selves. I know there are also some exceptions to that rule.
I decided to use Career WAR (Wins Above Replacement) as the stat of choice. I wanted some sort of comparative statistic that would be semi-constant in meaning. In other words, career ERA isn’t a good stat because it doesn’t provide any context, such as number of innings pitched, or what the league ERA may have been at a given time. Obviously Wins are never a good stat to use for a pitcher. So, you can argue if WAR is the right statistic for this analysis, but I think it is appropriate.
I’m certain that it will be no surprise to anyone to find out that Roger Clemens, the 19th overall pick in the 1983 draft out of the University of Texas, is the leader in WAR among the 222 college pitchers selected in the top 25 picks over 30 years. His 145.5 WAR is followed most closely by Mike Mussina, the 20th overall pick in the 1990 draft out of Stanford, who had a career WAR of 85.6. Kevin Brown, the 4th overall pick in the 1986 draft from Georgia Tech, posted a career WAR of 77.2. No other college pitcher drafted in baseball’s top 25 picks from 1980 through 2010 has posted a career WAR of 36.
To be fair, Justin Verlander, the #2 overall pick in the 2004 draft from Old Dominion, has career WAR of 32.5, and presumably, he will continue to pitch well for years and wind up much higher. That said, Mark Prior, the #2 overall pick in the 2001 draft from USC, had a career WAR of 16.0 through his first four big league seasons, and his career WAR was 15.8. So, you just don’t know.
Here are the Top 25 college pitchers drafted in the Top 25 picks of the first round in the 1980-2010 draft, by WAR:

Draft Yr
Overall
Name
College
Draft Team
WAR
1983
19
Roger Clemens
Texas
Red Sox
145.5
1990
20
Mike Mussina
Stanford
Orioles
85.6
1986
4
Kevin Brown
Georgia Tech
Rangers
77.2
1981
1
Mike Moore
Oral Roberts
Mariners
35.7
1988
1
Andy Benes
Evansville
Padres
35.7
1987
5
Jack McDowell
Stanford
White Sox
35.0
1986
2
Greg Swindell
Texas
Indians
34.9
1988
17
Charles Nagy
Connecticut
Indians
34.4
1991
23
Aaron Sele
Washington St
Red Sox
33.6
2004
2
Justin Verlander
Old Dominion
Tigers
32.5
1999
10
Ben Sheets
NE Louisiana State
Brewers
31.7
1985
3
Bobby Witt
Oklahoma
Rangers
31.5
1983
1
Tim Belcher
Mt Vernon Nazarene College
Twins
31.4
1999
9
Barry Zito
USC
A's
31.3
1995
12
Matt Morris
Seton Hall
Cardinals
29.5
2006
10
Tim Lincecum
Washington
Giants
27.9
1984
24
Terry Mulholland
Marietta College
Giants
26.2
1993
12
Billy Wagner
Ferrum College
Astros
24.7
1984
2
Billy Swift
Maine
Mariners
24.4
2004
12
Jered Weaver
Long Beach State
Angels
24.3
1988
8
Jim Abbott
Michigan
Angels
23.4
1998
14
Jeff Weaver
Fresno State
Tigers
23.2
1981
9
Ron Darling
Yale
Rangers
22.1
1989
1
Ben McDonald
LSU
Orioles
21.8
1998
2
Mark Mulder
Michigan State
A's
21.1

 
Among that list, you can see a few things. There are several pitchers who have high WAR because of longevity (Mulholland, Swindell) and you can see a lot of pitchers who were pretty good but injuries derailed their careers (Sheets, Witt, Morris, McDonald). Will today’s aces like Verlander, Lincecum and Jered Weaver continue to increase their WAR over time, or will they suffer some of the circumstances that so many of these guys (and the guys with career WAR of less than 20) dealt with in their careers?
Of the 222 pitchers drafted in the Top 25 overall picks from 1980-2010, the 25 shown above are the only ones with a career WAR of 20 or higher. Here is a breakdown:
Career WAR                       Pitchers
>20                                         25
10.1 - 20                                25
5.1 - 10                                  16
0 – 10                                    78
<0                                           29
No MLB                                 49
Many of you may wonder why I included the Top 25 picks from each of those years, rather than just the Top 2 picks since the Twins have the #2 pick. I did so for a couple of reasons. First, the Twins have more than just two options for the draft this year. When the draft is analyzed in five or ten years, the Twins selection at #2 will be compared against guys drafted at #3, #4, #5 and throughout the first round picks.
Secondly, I was of the opinion coming into the research that the likelihood of finding an “ace” was just as good at #20 as it is at #2.
Finally, in 2009 and 2010, the Twins selected college pitchers. In 2009, the Twins took Kyle Gibson with the 22nd overall pick. In 2010, the Twins used the 21st overall pick on Alex Wimmers. I wanted to understand the success rates of guys taken with those picks as well. (NOTE – Gibson and Wimmers are included in the No MLB Experience category up above, and we all hope that at some point, they will get to the big leagues and be successful.)
(The Twins have had high picks such as Adam Johnson and Ryan Mills that didn't pan out, but they also have found success with the likes of Mark Redman and Matt Garza in the first round.)
The next thing I did with the data was look at each of the 25 draft slots. I counted how many times in those 31 years of drafts that a college pitcher was chosen with that pick. I showed the average career WAR for those players. I showed how many have No Major League experience because they are included in the ‘average.’ I also showed which pitcher drafted in that slot has the highest career WAR. Here is that chart:

Draft Slot
College Pitchers
Avg Career WAR
No Maj Lg Experience
Highest Career WAR
1
11
15.5
0
Mike Moore/Andy Benes (35.7)
2
9
16.3
0
Greg Swindell (34.9)
3
10
7.5
2
Bobby Witt (31.5)
4
14
8
1
Kevin Brown (77.2)
5
9
4.7
1
Jack McDowell (35.0)
6
11
2.1
2
Ricky Romero (9.8)
7
10
0.8
1
Dan Reichert (3.7)
8
7
5.7
4
Jim Abbott (23.4)
9
7
11.4
1
Barry Zito (31.3)
10
7
9.1
1
Ben Sheets (31.7)
11
8
1.8
5
Max Scherzer (10.9)
12
5
17.6
1
Matt Morris (29.5)
13
6
5.6
1
Mark Redman (17.3)
14
7
4.3
2
Jeff Weaver (23.2)
15
6
0.3
2
Sean Lowe (1.8)
16
12
6
1
Roberto Hernandez/Jason Jennings (15.2)
17
8
9.3
1
Charles Nagy (34.4)
18
10
3
3
Joe Magrane (15.0)
19
10
14.8
1
Roger Clemens (145.5)
20
9
11.9
5
Mike Mussina (85.6)
21
12
2.6
3
Ian Kennedy (7.9)
22
10
3.4
2
Rick Helling (15.1)
23
6
5.9
3
Aaron Sele (33.6)
24
10
4.8
3
Terry Mulholland (26.2)
25
8
2.6
2
Matt Garza (14.6)

 
SUMMARY
In summary, we could look at this data many different ways to see what it would tell us. Based on this history, the odds of the Twins drafting a college pitcher with the #2 pick and him posting a career WAR of 20 or more are like 10% History tells us that although college pitchers certainly get to the big leagues much quicker, in general, Twins fans may want to temper their enthusiasm for whoever the team takes with the #2 pick.
What does this mean to the Twins?
Absolutely nothing. First, as Terry Ryan said on Sunday’s “Inside Pitch” radio show, the team will take the best available player on their draft board. If it is it a position player, like Byron Buxton, Mike Zunino, or Carlos Correa, they will take that player. That is completely the right strategy.
However, if the Twins’ scouts put together their list of top draft-eligible players and a college pitcher (such as Mark Appel, Kevin Gausman or Kyle Zimmer), this data should not deter them from taking that pitcher.
Having the #2 overall pick is a great opportunity for the Twins to acquire a top talent. This historical perspective should provide, just that, perspective on what our expectations should be for any 1st round draft pick. However, that #2 draft slot should also provide a lot of hope that maybe the Twins can get this turned around, and pitching is the team's number one need. Having five picks in the first 72 picks of the draft is an opportunity for the Twins to add some much needed talent and life to the Twins farm system.
---
Over at Twins Daily, there is a ton of Twins content for you to peruse. Seth continues to offer a daily look into the Twins minor league system. The Twins Daily community is terrific, and there have been some great blogs by members of late. Cody Christie looked at Brian Duensing’s increasing bullpen velocity, but John also put together a nice summary of the great blog entries that there have been just in recent days.
The forums continue to be increasingly busy with some very interesting topics. Earlier in the week, we debuted the Minnesota Twins Adopt-a-Prospect where Twins Daily members could adopt a Twins minor leaguer. The member then set up a forum thread for the player and will update it with any information on the player throughout the season. Almost 70 Twins minor leaguers were adopted, but that leaves several players still available!   

TwinsCentric: Twins Draft History

Posted by: Seth Stohs Updated: February 23, 2012 - 7:00 AM

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Over the next several months, Twins fans are going to hear a lot about the June MLB draft, and for good reason. The Twins have the #2 overall pick and five picks in the Top 100. Coming off of a 99 loss season, and having a middle-of-the-pack minor league system, it is important to take advantage of the draft. In coming months, you’ll read names like Mark Appel, Lucas Giolito, Devin Marrero, Byron Buxton and Mike Zunino frequently. Today I wanted to look at the draft a little differently.
It is said that it usually takes five or six years to start judging a team’s draft. I would contend that it really takes ten years. Consider that some high school players who are drafted don’t get to the big leagues for eight or nine seasons. Consider there are players that don’t sign and go to college for three years before getting drafted again. It takes them several years sometimes.
Yes, for the below report, I am going to include players that the Twins drafted but did not sign who made it to the big leagues. Seeing talent, and future big league talent, is what scouting is all about. Some late-round picks haven’t signed and went to college. There are some players that the Twins have redrafted. There are other players that the Twins have drafted but didn’t sign who they have brought in later as free agents or in trades.
To start, I’ll give a more detailed look at the Twins 2002 draft and show how many of the 50 draft picks made it to each level. After that, I’ll show how many players from each year’s Twins draft have made it to the big leagues. I’ll go back to 1987 as that is when many of the current Twins scouts and scouting directors began working with the Twins.
The 2002 Draft:
For the players who were drafted and signed in 2002, 2012 will be their 11th professional season. There is some chance that one or maybe two more players will get a cup of coffee in the big leagues.
  • MLB Players (9): Denard Span (1), Jesse Crain (2), Clete Thomas (5), Pat Neshek (6), Adam Lind (8), Kyle Phillips (10), Evan Meek (11), Jeff Clement (12), Garrett Mock (14).
  • AAA (7): Ricky Barrett (7), Doug Deeds (9), Josh Petersen (24), James Avery (29), Toby Gardenhire (38), Brock Peterson (49), Mike Ballard (50)
  • AA (5): Adam Harben (15), Adam Daniels (19), Danny Matienzo (23), Christian Castorri (34), Kyle Geiger (42)
  • A (10): Bo Pettit (13), Adam Hawes (17), Ryan Schreppel (20), TJ Prunty (21), Justin Keeling (25), Ron Perodin (27), Hasan Rasheed (28), Roberto Martinez (30), Tarrence Pattersen (35), John Cahill (36)
Ten players peaked in Rookie Ball, and nine players that didn’t sign did not play in affiliated baseball again. Among them was their 45th round pick, a pitcher from Holy Angels HS in Minnesota named John Stocco, who went to Wisconsin and became their quarterback. TJ Prunty is another St. Paul kid who the Twins drafted out of high school, but he went down to Miami to play football before the Twins drafted him again. Three of the players who have peaked at AAA are still playing. Without looking at all teams for a decade of drafts, it is impossible to put this into context, but my assumption is that this breakdown would put the Twins and their scouts in a positive light.
Big Leaguers from Twins Drafts (1987-2001)
  • 2001 (5): Joe Mauer (1), Jose Morales (3), Kevin Cameron (13), Matt Macri (17), Nick Blackburn (29)
  • 2000 (8): Adam Johnson (1), Aaron Heilman (1s), JD Durbin (2), Jason Miller (4), Josh Rabe (11), Jason Kubel (12), Paul Maholm (17), Daniel Davidson (28)
  • 1999 (8): Rob Bowen (2), Justin Morneau (3), Brian Wolfe (6), Brian Slocum (14), Travis Bowyer (20), Willie Eyre (23), Terry Tiffee (26), Pat Neshek (45)
  • 1998 (7): Saul Rivera (9), Mike Gosling (14), JJ Putz (17), Kevin Thompson (18), Juan Padilla (24), Kevin Frederick (34), Tommy Watkins (38)
  • 1997 (7): Michael Cuddyer (1), Matthew LeCroy (1s), Michael Restovich (2), Kevin Frederick (17), JC Romero (21), Adam Johnson (25), Nick Punto (33)
  • 1996 (9): Travis Lee (1), Jacque Jones (2), Chad Allen (4), Michael Ryan (5), Chad Moeller (7), Mike Lincoln (13), Matt Kata (20), Mike Lamb (31), Josh Bard (35)
  • 1995 (6): Mark Redman (1), AJ Hinch (3), Doug Mientkiewicz (5), Mike Moriarity (7), Robert Ramsay (17), Jeff Harris (28)
  • 1994 (7): Todd Walker (1), Travis Miller (1s), Cleatus Davidson (2), AJ Pierzynski (3), Corey Koskie (26), Brandon Puffer (27), Brian Lawrence (39)
  • 1993 (14): Torii Hunter (1), Jason Varitek (1), Dan Perkins (2), Javier Valentin (3), Benj Sampson (4), Kelly Dransfeldt (7), Kevin Ohme (9), Alex Cora (12), Ryan Radmanovich (14), Danny Kolb (17), Shane Bowers (21), Rod Radlosky (22), Emil Brown (27), Lance Carter (41).
  • 1992 (6): Dan Serafini (1), Gus Gandarillos (3), Dan Naulty (14), Scott Watkins (23), Gary Matthews (38), Craig Dingman (50).
  • 1991 (7): David McCarty (1), Scott Stahoviak (1s), Mike Durant (2), LaTroy Hawkins (7), Brad Radke (8), Matt Lawton (13), Tim Davis (34)
  • 1990 (11): Todd Ritchie (1), Midre Cummings (1), Jayhawk Owens (2), Rich Becker (3), Brent Brede (5), James Mouton (8), Pat Meares (12), Jeff Granger (14), Damian Miller (20), Eddie Guardado (21), Brian Raabe (41)
  • 1989 (10): Chuck Knoblauch (1), Denny Neagle (3), Scott Erickson (4), Marty Cordova (10), Dan Mastellar (11), Mike Trombley (14), George Tsamis (15), Derrick White (23), Tim Urbani (29), Denny Hocking (52).
  • 1988 (7): Alan Newman (2), Steve Dunn (4), Pat Mahomes (6), Doug Simons (9), JT Bruett (11), Scott Stahoviak (27), Aaron Sele (37)
  • 1987 (9): Willie Banks (1), Terry Jorgensen (2), Larry Casian (6), Mark Guthrie (7), Shawn Gilbert (12), Chip Hale (17), Dan Smith (22), Bret Boone (28), Craig Paquette (36).
Obviously this is only one way to judge a draft. Ideally teams will want an All-Star or two to come out of every draft, but that’s not realistic. The draft and scouting is such an inexact science. It is also such an important part of building a roster and an organization. Not all players are going to be All-Stars, but it is important to have role players too.
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Over at TwinsDaily today, you will find lots going on. John wrote an article on Burroughs Fairy Tale Ending. Cody Christie contributed a blog entitled To Block the Plate or not to block the plate. That certainly is the question in light of the Giants telling catcher Buster Posey that he is not to block the plate any longer.  In the Forums, there is a good discussion on the team’s Lack of Power in the lineup.

TwinsCentric: The aces of baseball

Posted by: Seth Stohs Updated: February 14, 2012 - 2:29 AM

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Throughout the past few offseasons, the comments I hear most regarding the Twins needs involve the need to acquire an Ace. In fact, I’ve said it a few times myself. Of course, that isn’t completely true and it is never the full story. You see, for the mid-90s, the Twins had not only an Ace, but the best pitcher in baseball, and that didn’t get them to the second round of the playoffs. The 2011 Phillies boasted a starting rotation of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt and didn’t get to the World Series. That rotation has two definite Aces, a borderline ace and a former ace.
 
I’d also caution that many people, one year ago, felt that Francisco Liriano fell into the borderline ace category. That is just one example of why I believe that to be a true ace, there has to be greatness over several seasons. Another example would be Ubaldo Jimenez who was dominant for half of the 2010 season but hasn’t been great since. Like Liriano, Jimenez has a chance to return to ace-like status, but we shall see.
 
With that, I took to Twitter yesterday where I asked my ‘followers’ which current major league pitchers would or should be classified as True Aces. The response was great, and I will break this into the true aces (my opinion), and those on the borderline (my opinion).
 
True Aces:
  • Justin Verlander (Year 3 of five year, $80 million contract - $20M)
  • Clayton Kershaw (Year 1 of two year, $19 million contract - $7.5M)
  • Tim Lincecum (Year 1 of two year, $40.5 million contract - $18M)
  • CC Sabathia (Year 1 of five year, $122 million contract - $23M)
  • Felix Hernandez (Year 3 of five year, $78 million contract - $18.5M)
  • Cliff Lee (Year 2 of five year, $120 million contract - $21.5M)
  • Roy Halladay (Year 2 of three year, $60 million contract - $20M)
  • Jared Weaver (Year 1 of five year, $85 million contract - $14M)
  • Dan Haren (Year 4 of four year, $44.75 million contract - $12.75M - $15.5M club option for 2013)
  • Yovani Gallardo (Year 3 of five year, $30.1 million contract, $5.5M)
  • Matt Cain (Year 3 of three year, $27.25 million contract, $15M)
  • Chris Carpenter (Year 1 of two year, $21 million contract - $10.5M)
 
Borderline Aces:
  • Josh Johnson (Year 3 of four year, $39 million contract - $13.75M)
  • Cole Hamels (avoided arbitration, $15M)
  • Adam Wainright (Year 5 of four year, $15 million contract – Cardinals picked up $9M option for 2012 despite Tommy John surgery)
  • Zach Greinke (Year 4 of four year, $38 million contract - $13.5M)
  • Matt Garza (avoided arbitration, $9.5 M)
  • Jon Lester (Year 4 of five year, $30 million contract, $7.625M)
  • Josh Beckett (Year 2 of four year, $68 million contract - $15.75M)
  • David Price (avoided arbitration, $4.25M)
  • Ricky Romero (Year 2 of five year, $30.1 million contract, $5M)
  • Anibal Sanchez (won arbitration, 1 year, $8M)
 
Could be an Ace quickly: Matt Moore, Stephen Strasburg, Mat Latos, Yu Darvish, Michael Pineda, Jeremy Hellickson, Tommy Hanson, Julio Teheran, Gerrit Cole, Dylan Bundy.
 
So, when I hear Twins fans say, “We (meaning, the Twins) need an Ace,” I will frequently say, “I agree. How are the Twins going to get one?”
 
Not one pitcher in that top list is available. Part of the reason they are in that top list is that, so far, they have been able to stay healthy. Johan Santana used to be in that category, but now that he hasn’t pitched for over 18 months, I’m not so sure he should be there any further. In the “Borderline” category, there are some guys who have been really good for a short period of time, or there is some injury concern or some inconsistency.
 
We can argue what an Ace is, who is or who isn’t. That’s not really the point here. The point is that they are not easy to come by. These guys are not available, and after the Mat Latos trade earlier this offseason, it’s understandable to see why. Latos was traded to the Reds from the Padres in exchange for Edinson Volquez, Yonder Alonso, Yasmani Grandal and Brad Boxberger. Part of that is because Latos is not even arbitration-eligible for another year. However, the Cubs have been trying to trade Matt Garza much of the offseason and either are not getting any interest or the asking price is beyond what anyone is willing to pay. Santana is probably a big reason why. When the Twins traded the two-time Cy Young winner to the Mets, he was baseball’s best pitcher. He was good for another year and a half and then he did what most pitchers do, he got hurt. Of course, he could still come back. We shall see. But will he ever be what he was again? Probably not.
 
More than half of the players listed above were drafted in the first half of the first round. The Twins have had one pick in the first half of the first round since 2002. The Twins have a big opportunity in the June draft when they have the 2nd overall pick. Mark Appel’s name is frequently mentioned as a possible choice. The Stanford right hander doesn’t really profile as an Ace, more like a 2 or 3 starter (like Kyle Gibson, Alex Wimmers or Liam Hendriks). Not that there is anything wrong with a 2 or 3 starter. Those are very good pitchers who will make a lot of money when they hit free agency. Lucas Giolito is another pitcher, a high school pitcher, who gets mentioned as a possible #2 pick. He profiles much more like a future Ace, but there is much more risk with a high school pitcher than with a college pitcher. Of course, by the time of the draft in June, there may be another name (pitcher or hitter) who is the best available player at that #2 spot and that’s who the Twins should take. The Twins have five picks in the top 100 picks this June.
 
Along with signing Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco, Javier Pimentel and other talented Dominican hitters, the Twins have also done a good job signing several top Dominican pitchers in recent years. They have signed two top young pitchers from Taiwan.
 
I completely agree with people who say that the Twins need an Ace. Frankly, the best way for that to happen is for Francisco Liriano to gain a little self-confidence, trust his stuff and become that pitcher again. He was there in 2010. It’s a contract-year for him, so it would be to his benefit if he did regain that form this year. Scott Baker was pitching as well as anyone last year before his elbow injuries. He really needs to step up too.
 
And then they just have to find a way to sign the right draft picks and international players and develop them. Frankly, I’m not as worried about getting a True Ace. That doesn’t guarantee anything. But I do think that pitching does win, and if they had more #2s and #3s that were consistent, they would be just fine.
 
Any thoughts? Please feel free to use the Comments Section!
 
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