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Sunday Snow? Dry and Mostly Sunny Stretch Ahead

Sunday Snow?
 
What the what - I did a double take when I saw white things falling from the sky on Sunday, did you? Thanks to @LoneOakFmr for the picture below who was in the midst of harvest 2018 when it started snowing! Sunday's forecast called for up to 1" to 2" across the extreme southern part of the state. Interestingly, that snow band lifted a little farther and impacted the Twin Cities metro during the mid/late morning hours.
 
 
Here's another picure that @cjouppi shared with the @NWSTwinCities from Chaska Town Course early Sunday. Note that there was enough snow for even a light coating on the deck furniture.

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Winter Returned to Colorado Over the Weekend!
 
Snowflakes were also reported across the Colorado, but there they had quite a bit more snow! Here are a few images of the big changes that took place from Saturday to Sunday. Thanks to @Jeremiah_WX and @RideCME on twitter (and Kate Kalamon) for the picture below out of Colorado 
 

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Monday Weather Outlook
 
Monday will be another VERY chilly day across the state with highs in the 30s and 40s, which will be nearly -15F to -20F below average. There may also be some lingering light snow showers across the international border.
 
 
 Weather Outlook
 
Light snow fell across parts of southern MN on Sunday, some of which accumulated to nearly 1" to 2" across the extreme southern part of the state. The extended forecast through Wednesday suggests a few lingering light snow showers across parts of far northern Minnesota, but much of the state will remain dry. In fact, it looks mostly dry across much of the state through most of next week.
 
 
More Snow Up North?
 
Here's a look at the snowfall potential from Sunday to Tuesday. Note the fairly minor accumulations across the far southern part of the state, while folks in far northern could see up to a few inches of snow through the early week time frame.
 
 
Mostly Dry Week Ahead
 
Take a look at NOAA's WPC 7-day precipitation potential through next weekend. Interestingly, MSP has seen 9.73" of precipitation since the beginning of meteorological fall (September 1st), which makes it the 5th wettest start to a meteorlogical fall on record! The image below shows mostly dry weather across much of the state through the 3rd full week of October.
 

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Temperature Outlook
 
Temperatures in the metro have been running nearly -6F below average this month and it looks like we will continue the trend through the first half of the week. However, note the brief warm up late next week with highs nearing 60F! Keep in mind that the average high for October 18th & 19th is in the upper 50s, so if we make it to the low 60s, we will be above average! Despite the brief warmup, temps are expected to plunge into well below average readings again with highs in the 40s and 50s by the last full week of the month.
 

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First Official Freeze of the Season at the MSP Airport

The temperature dropped to 31F on Friday morning, which makes it the first official frost of the season at the MSP Airport. Interestingly, this is the first time we've been below freezing since April 20th, which was 175 days ago!

Average First Frost?

Note that the average first frost date (32F) at the MSP Airport typically happens ~October 10th. Much of the rest of the state typically sees it between September 21st-30th. With that said, we had our first frost of the season nearly right on average.
 
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Snow Depth?
 
Here's an interesting map... that's a look at how much snow is currently on the ground! Thanks to heavy snow earlier last week, some locations across the far northern part of the state still have nearly 4" to 8" of snow on the ground!
 
 
Heavy Snow Earlier This Week
 
It was VERY snowy earlier this week for several folks across the Dakotas and northern Minnesota. Take a look at the image below from @MHDSpudFootball where football practice was underway in Moorehead, MN! 
 
 
 Heavy Snow Earlier This Week
 
If you haven't heard, there was a very impressive 19.2" snow report at the Grand Forks Air Force Base earlier this week. The snow from October 10th to the 11th brought several locations at least a foot or more from eastern North Dakota into the far northwestern corner of Minnesota. There was even a report of 11" in Karlstad, MN - Good grief!
 
 
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Fall Color Peeping

Thanks to the park staff at Bear Head Lake State Park for the pictures below who submitted this on the MN DNR fall color page earlier this month. Great pictures!!
 
 
MN DNR Fall Color Update
 
The MN DNR continues to update their fall color report for the 2018 fall season and fall colors are changing fast, especially up north. According to the MN DNR, much of northern MN is now at peak color over even a little past peak. Meanwhile, the Twin Cities is now reporting 50%-75% color! Try to get out and enjoy the colors while you can - strong winds on Sunday could threaten those beautiful fall colors.
 
 
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Typical dates for peak fall colors in Minnesota

According to the MN DNR, the typical peak for fall color starts in mid/late September across far northern Minnesota, while folks in the Twin Cities enjoy it around late September to mid October.


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What causes fall colors?
 
Have you ever wondered why leaves change color and what causes the leaves to turn the color they do? The MN DNR has a great explanation.
 
Four main groups of biochemicals are responsible for the various yellows, oranges, reds and browns that we see in the fall:

Chlorophyll
Carotenoids
Anthocyanins
Tannins

Each has its own color and chemistry. As the amount of these chemicals vary, they will cause subtle variations in color from one leaf to the next, or even from tree to tree.

See more from the MN DNR HERE:

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"THIS YEAR'S FALL COLORS WILL BE STUNNING. HERE'S WHEN & WHERE THEY'LL PEAK NEAR YOU"

"Although it may feel like this hot and steamy summer may never end, fall -- with its mercifully cooler weather, pumpkin drinks, and changing leaves -- is nearly upon us. So, it'd behoove you to start looking at the trees. The changing of the seasons brings with it ample reason to break out a flannel shirt and walk through the stunning fall foliage all across the country, and thanks to the above-average moisture and temperatures this summer, you'll have plenty of time to ensure that you can venture into the woods and take it all in. You may have missed your chance to fit in another summer trip this year, but on the bright side, you have more than enough time to plot an adventure through American's stunning forests to catch the changing leaves, or dare we say go "leaf peeping." To make matters even easier, SmokyMountains.com has released its annual interactive fall foliage forecast map, predicting when and where the leaves will be at their most vibrant hues of red, yellow, orange, and brown. And while there's no forecast that's 100% accurate, the map can serve as your primary resource if you're inclined to wander into the woods this fall."

See more from Thrillist HERE:


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Sunday Snow? Dry and Mostly Sunny Stretch Ahead
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas

Not sure about you, but I did a double take when I looked out the window Sunday morning. I thought I was dreaming at first, but yes, that was SNOW! While the Twin Cities metro only managed a minor dusting on patio furniture, farmers in far southern Minnesota reported nearly 1 to 2 inches of slush on combines.

It's been a strange year. We seemed to have skipped spring, going from an April blizzard to highs in the 90s and 100s only 1 month later. If you can remember, mid September featured highs in the 80s and 90s and now we've been throwing the "S" word around - what gives?

We certainly live in the Super Bowl of weather. Extreme ranges in temperatures to everything except storms with names and I think most of us can live without that.

By the way, the average first 1 inch snowfall event in Minneapolis typically occurs in mid November, while the earliest was on September 26th in 1942.

I'm happy to report that dry and mostly sunny weather will persist over the next several days. Highs will even approach 60 by Thursday!
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Extended Forecast

MONDAY: Frosty start. Brisk sunshine. Winds: WSW 10-15. High: 43.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy and quiet with patchy frost. Winds: SW 10. Low: 35.

TUESDAY: Breezy. Light mix up north. Winds: NW 10-20. High: 50.

WEDNESDAY: Bright blue sky. Winds: WSW 5-10. Wake-up: 32. High: 50.

THURSDAY: A run at 60F !! Winds: SW 5-15. Wake-up: 38. High: 62.

FRIDAY: Clouds thicken. Winds increase. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 47. High: 57.

SATURDAY: Lingering AM flurry? More PM sun. Winds: NW 5-10. Wake-up: 36. High: 44.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Still cooler than average. Winds: SW 10-20. Wake-up: 31. High: 51.
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This Day in Weather History
October 15th

1968: Unseasonably warm weather moves into central and southern Minnesota. The high was 85 in the Twin Cities.

1899: Heavy rain falls, with 3.2 inches in the St. Cloud area and 2.1 inches in Willmar.
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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
October 15th

Average High: 59F (Record: 85F set in 1968)
Average Low: 40F (Record: 21F set in 1876)

Record Rainfall: 1.24" set in 1966
Record Snowfall: 0.3" set in 1922
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
October 15th

Sunrise: 7:28am
Sunset: 6:28pm

Hours of Daylight: ~10 hours & 59 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~3 minutes & 2 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 21st): 4 hours and 32 Minutes
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Moon Phase for October 15th at Midnight
0.5 Days Before First Quarter Moon

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What's in the Night Sky?

According to EarthSky.org this is what will be visible in the night sky over the next several nights: 

"These next four nights – October 14, 15, 16 and 17, 2018 – watch for the waxing moon to move from Saturn to Mars on the sky’s dome. Saturn and Mars are bright planets and therefore rather easy to see with the eye alone. On the night of October 14, you can tell which planet is Saturn and which is Mars, because the moon is much closer to Saturn on this date; by October 17 and 18, the moon will be the vicinity of the red planet Mars. Saturn is the farthest world that you can easily see with the eye alone. Although it’s more than 10 astronomical units (10 times the sun-Earth distance) away from Earth right now, Saturn nonetheless shines as brilliantly as a 1st-magnitude star. Because this huge planet has the volume of more than 750 Earth’s, and its reflective rings are tilting nearly maximally toward Earth, this world is rather bright in Earth’s sky in 2018."

 
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Atlantic Update

Here's a look at the Atlantic basin, which looks MUCH quieter than it did just a couple of days ago. However, LESLIE - impacted Spain and Portugal over the weekend! This is VERY rare, in fact, this historic storm will likely be the first tropical system to ever impact the region on record. Good grief!

Tracking LESLIE

NOAA's NHC was tracking LESLIE in the extreme eastern eastern part of the Atlantic and impact Portugal and Spain over the weekend. Interestingly, this is the closest a hurricane has ever gotten to these areas in modern day records!

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Tropical Climatology

This is neat map from NOAA's NHC, which shows where we typically see tropical cyclones develop during the middle part of October. Keep in mind that September 10th is the average peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, so even though we are passed the typical peak, things can still be VERY active.
 
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Average Peak of Atlantic Hurricane Season

According to NOAA, the average peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season is on September 10th. Note that on average, things are still pretty active through the 2nd half of September into October.
 

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2018 Lightning Fatalities - TWENTY

Did you know that lightning ranks as one of the top weather related killers in the U.S.? An average of nearly 50 people are killed each year in the United States and so far this year, 20 people have died from lightning; 16 have been males and only 4 have been females. Interestingly, from 2008-2017, 236 males have died, while only 65 females have died.

See Lightning Safety Tips From NOAA HERE:

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PRELIMINARY Tornado Count This Year

According to NOAAs SPC, the PRELIMINARY tornado count across the US this year stands at 957 (through October 11th). Note that this is less than the last couple of years, but more than what we had in 2013. Keep in mind that the short-term average (2005-2015) suggests an average of more than 1,257 tornadoes.


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Average Tornadoes in October By State

Here's the average number of tornadoes during the month of October by state. Texas sees the most with 8, while Minnesota averages only 1 tornado.

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Temperature Outlook Monday
 
High temps on Sunday will be VERY chilly across much of the nation once again. In fact, take a look at Denver, CO! They are expecting a daytime high of 25F, which will be nearly -40F below average! Denver is even under a Winter Weather Advisory for the potential of 3" to 6" of snow through midday Sunday.
 
 
 
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Temperature Trend

BRR!!! This map looks very chilly, doesn't it? The blues and purples indicate below to well below average temperatures, which will impact much of the nation over the weekend and into early next week.

 

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC, October 21st - 27th looks looks a little bettern than it has been as of late. Tempertures across the country won't be quite as cold as what we're dealing with now, but chilly temps will still be found from the Northeast to the Southern US. While, folks in Florida and the Western half of the country will be warmer than average.

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Weather Outlook Ahead

The weather loop below shows fairly active conditions developing across the central and southern US as we head into the next couple of days. Areas of snow will continue across parts of the Central US on Monday with areas of heavy rain continuing in the Southern US through the middle part of the week.

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Snow Potential
 
Here's the snow potential through Monday, which suggests fairly decent snow tallies across the high elevations of the Rockies and even into the Plains. Note that there will be folks in eastern Colorado, Kansas and even Nebraska that see some accumulations through early next week.
 
 
 

7 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's WPC, the 7-day precipitation outlook suggests areas of heavy rain across the Southern US, where some 2" to 5"+ tallies can't be ruled out. Meanwhile, folks in the Western US and the Upper Midwest look to stay fairly dry through the week ahead.


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US Drought Outlook

Thanks to areas of rain and s now across the Western US, there have been some small improvements in drought conditions since last week.

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"Watch Jim Cantore rescue another reporter from being swept away by Hurricane Michael's fierce winds"
 
"Even seasoned weather reporters had trouble withstanding the strong winds of Hurricane Michael.  As the deadly storm moved through Panama City Beach, Florida, on Wednesday, NBC News' Kerry Sanders was covering it on camera when he nearly got swept away. Thankfully, Weather Channel's Jim Cantore was able to step in and come to his rescue. In a video NBC Washington shared on Twitter, Sanders can be seen struggling to find his footing in the face of the hurricane's fierce winds. Then, seemingly out of nowhere, Cantore appears, and helps Sanders make his way to a pole so that they can both brace themselves."
 
 
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"Why some people won't evacuate: FEMA research"
 
"With Hurricane Michael threatening more than 300 miles of the Gulf Coast, prompting emergency declarations in more than 100 counties, the results of research done by Dr. Stacy Willett, a Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) expert, can provide insight into why some people "just won't leave" when advised to evacuate. In her research done after Hurricane Katrina, Willett, a professor in the Department of Disaster Science and Emergency Services, identified six major reasons why people ignore mandatory evacuation notices—age, gender, previous experience, cost, pets and the influence of others. She also offers possible solutions for evacuees, their families and emergency officials."
 
 

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"Climate change provided high octane fuel for Hurricane Michael"

"Sometimes connecting climate change to a specific weather event is difficult. With Hurricane Michael, it's not. The science is easy: Earth's waters are getting warmer due to an increasing global temperature, and warmer waters fuel hurricanes. Water temperatures in the far northern Gulf of Mexico were 3 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit higher than normal for this time of year. Instead of water temperatures being near 80, they were in the mid-80s as Michael moved over the Gulf and approached the Florida coast.That's a huge difference. Even a small temperature bump in the ocean causes a tremendous addition of energetic heat and water vapor to a storm, meaning higher wind speeds and more storm surge. All other things being equal, a storm hovering above 85-degree water will become much stronger than a storm hovering above 80-degree water. Since the mid-1900s, Tropical Atlantic water temperatures have increased by 1 to 2 degrees Fahrenheit, and more in some spots."

See more from CBS News HERE:


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"How climate change will affect your health"
 
"A new report from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warns of dire consequences if governments don't make "rapid, far-reaching, and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society" to stem global warming. But the planet isn't the only thing at risk as temperatures rise; your health might be in danger, too. Here are six ways that climate change might affect you, whether it's insect-borne disease or Type 2 diabetes."

See more from CNN HERE:

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"Things in the middle of the Arctic are getting really strange"

"In the deep middle of the remote Arctic Ocean, things are amiss. With the passage of summer, the ice — diminished by the warm season — is expected to regrow as frigid temperatures envelope the Arctic.  But, this year, it's not. Specifically, sea ice in the Central Arctic basin — a massive region of ocean some 4.5 million square kilometers in size — hasn't started its usual rapid expansion, and unusually warm temperatures in both the air and the ocean are largely to blame. "For the most part, Arctic sea ice normally begins rapidly refreezing this time of year," Zack Labe, a climate scientist and Ph.D. candidate at the University of California Irvine, said over email."

See more from Mashable HERE:

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"How a warming Arctic speeds up climate change — and spreads its damage"

"It's no mystery why the Arctic is warming 2 to 3 times faster than anywhere else on the planet. By now, scientists have made it as clear as they possibly can that climate change is real and greenhouse gas emissions are to blame. But what is perhaps less well known is the natural role the Arctic plays in both accelerating climate change and spreading its often disastrous consequences around the world.Recent events such as the prolonged rains of hurricanes Harvey and Florence and the persistent drought across the U.S. Midwest are linked to — though not necessarily directly caused by — climate change, climatologists warn.And while these events may seem disconnected from Canada's North, the truth is, it's the Arctic that is helping to fuel them."

See more from CBC HERE:

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Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

Chilly Sunday. Dry Weather Continues

What's That In The Sky?
 
October 2018 has been a VERY cloudy month thus far. In fact, 10 of the first 13 days of the month have been considered cloudy. Keep in mind that the average number of cloudy days in the Twin Cities is 14! With that said, we've been in dire need of a little vitamin D, so Friday and Saturday's sunshine was much needed!
 
 
Sunday Weather Outlook
 
Thanks to a cool front that blasted through late Saturday, temperatures on Sunday will once again be VERY chilly across much of the state. High temps will only warm into the 30s and 40s, which will be nearly -15F to -20F below average.
 
 
Weather Outlook
 
A cold front will continue to sag south of the region on Sunday and into early next week. This front will be responsible for another round of chilly temps Sunday and into early next week. Note that folks in far northern MN could see lingering light snow showers through early Monday, but it shouldn't add up to much. Interestingly, Much of the Upper Midwest looks to stay mainly dry over the next several days.
 
 
More Snow Up North?
 
Lingering light snow showers across far northern MN could add up to an inch or snow through early next week, but it shouldn't add up to much. 
 
 
Mostly Dry Week Ahead
 
Take a look at NOAA's WPC 7-day precipitation potential through next weekend. Interestingly, MSP has seen 9.73" of precipitation since the beginning of meteorological fall (September 1st), which makes it the 5th wettest start to a meteorlogical fall on record! The image below shows mostly dry weather across much of the state through the 3rd full week of October.
 

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Temperature Outlook
 
Temperatures in the metro have been running nearly -6F below average this month and it looks like we will continue the trend through the first half of the week. However, note the brief warm up late next week with highs nearing 60F! Keep in mind that the average high for October 18th & 19th is in the upper 50s, so if we make it to the low 60s, we will be above average! Despite the brief warmup, temps are expected to plunge into well below average readings again with highs in the 40s and 50s by the last full week of the month.
 

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First Official Freeze of the Season at the MSP Airport

The temperature dropped to 31F on Friday morning, which makes it the first official frost of the season at the MSP Airport. Interestingly, this is the first time we've been below freezing since April 20th, which was 175 days ago!

Average First Frost?

Note that the average first frost date (32F) at the MSP Airport typically happens ~October 10th. Much of the rest of the state typically sees it between September 21st-30th. With that said, we had our first frost of the season nearly right on average.
 
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Snow Depth?
 
Here's an interesting map... that's a look at how much snow is currently on the ground! Thanks to heavy snow earlier last week, some locations across the far northern part of the state still have nearly 4" to 8" of snow on the ground!
 
 
Heavy Snow Earlier This Week
 
It was VERY snowy earlier this week for several folks across the Dakotas and northern Minnesota. Take a look at the image below from @MHDSpudFootball where football practice was underway in Moorehead, MN! 
 
 
Heavy Snow Earlier This Week
 
If you haven't heard, there was a very impressive 19.2" snow report at the Grand Forks Air Force Base earlier this week. The snow from October 10th to the 11th brought several locations at least a foot or more from eastern North Dakota into the far northwestern corner of Minnesota. There was even a report of 11" in Karlstad, MN - Good grief!
 
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Fall Color Peeping

Thanks to the park staff at Bear Head Lake State Park for the pictures below who submitted this on the MN DNR fall color page earlier this month. Great pictures!!
 
 
 MN DNR Fall Color Update
 
The MN DNR continues to update their fall color report for the 2018 fall season and fall colors are changing fast, especially up north. According to the MN DNR, much of northern MN is now at peak color over even a little past peak. Meanwhile, the Twin Cities is now reporting 50%-75% color! Try to get out and enjoy the colors while you can - strong winds on Sunday could threaten those beautiful fall colors.
 
 
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Typical dates for peak fall colors in Minnesota

According to the MN DNR, the typical peak for fall color starts in mid/late September across far northern Minnesota, while folks in the Twin Cities enjoy it around late September to mid October.


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What causes fall colors?
 
Have you ever wondered why leaves change color and what causes the leaves to turn the color they do? The MN DNR has a great explanation.
 
Four main groups of biochemicals are responsible for the various yellows, oranges, reds and browns that we see in the fall:

Chlorophyll
Carotenoids
Anthocyanins
Tannins

Each has its own color and chemistry. As the amount of these chemicals vary, they will cause subtle variations in color from one leaf to the next, or even from tree to tree.

See more from the MN DNR HERE:

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"THIS YEAR'S FALL COLORS WILL BE STUNNING. HERE'S WHEN & WHERE THEY'LL PEAK NEAR YOU"

"Although it may feel like this hot and steamy summer may never end, fall -- with its mercifully cooler weather, pumpkin drinks, and changing leaves -- is nearly upon us. So, it'd behoove you to start looking at the trees. The changing of the seasons brings with it ample reason to break out a flannel shirt and walk through the stunning fall foliage all across the country, and thanks to the above-average moisture and temperatures this summer, you'll have plenty of time to ensure that you can venture into the woods and take it all in. You may have missed your chance to fit in another summer trip this year, but on the bright side, you have more than enough time to plot an adventure through American's stunning forests to catch the changing leaves, or dare we say go "leaf peeping." To make matters even easier, SmokyMountains.com has released its annual interactive fall foliage forecast map, predicting when and where the leaves will be at their most vibrant hues of red, yellow, orange, and brown. And while there's no forecast that's 100% accurate, the map can serve as your primary resource if you're inclined to wander into the woods this fall."

See more from Thrillist HERE:


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Chilly Sunday. Dry Weather Continues
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas

This recent chilly weather has me busier than ever. I feel like I'm nesting again, trying to get everything done and winterized before the first big winter storm!

Sure, we're probably still several weeks away from anything imminent, but it's good to be prepared. Heck, if you've stepped into any big box store, you'd think the holiday season was next was next week - good grief!

Yesterday's brief bout of sunshine was nice, but it didn't last long. The good news is that we'll get a good dose of vitamin D this week as several days should feature dry weather and abundant sunshine. We deserve it!

Interestingly, the MSP Airport has had its 5th wettest start to any meteorological fall on record, accumulating 9.73 inches of rain since September 1st. Looking out through the end of next week, I don't see any appreciative moisture anywhere in the Upper Midwest until maybe the end of the month.

In the meantime, today will be a chilly one with feels like temps in the 30s much of the day. Kick your feet up and fire up the Crock Pot! Go VIKES!
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Extended Forecast

SUNDAY: Chilly wind. Some sun. Winds: NW 5-15. High: 41.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Frost develops overnight. Winds: NW 10. Low: 30.

MONDAY: Frosty start. Dry with increasing PM winds. Winds: WSW 10-20. High: 43.

TUESDAY: Breezy. Light mix up north. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 34. High: 48.

WEDNESDAY: Bright sunshine. Winds: S 5-10. Wake-up: 33. High: 48.

THURSDAY: Plenty of sunshine. Feels warmer. Winds: SW 5-15. Wake-up: 35. High: 60.

FRIDAY: Gusty PM winds. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 46. High: 58.

SATURDAY: Chilly start. Sunshine continues. Winds: WNW 15-25. Wake-up: 35. High: 49.
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This Day in Weather History
October 14th

1966: An enormous hailstone crashes through the windshield of a truck near Claremont in Dodge County. It was reported to be 16 inches in circumference.
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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
October 14th

Average High: 59F (Record: 86F set in 1947)
Average Low: 40F (Record: 24F set in 1937)

Record Rainfall: 1.89" set in 1966
Record Snowfall: Trace set in 1959
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
October 14th

Sunrise: 7:27am
Sunset: 6:30pm

Hours of Daylight: ~11 hours & 02 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~3 minutes & 2 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 21st): 4 hours and 35 Minutes
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Moon Phase for October 14th at Midnight
1.5 Days Before First Quarter Moon

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What's in the Night Sky?

According to EarthSky.org this is what will be visible in the night sky over the next several nights: 

"These next four nights – October 14, 15, 16 and 17, 2018 – watch for the waxing moon to move from Saturn to Mars on the sky’s dome. Saturn and Mars are bright planets and therefore rather easy to see with the eye alone. On the night of October 14, you can tell which planet is Saturn and which is Mars, because the moon is much closer to Saturn on this date; by October 17 and 18, the moon will be the vicinity of the red planet Mars. Saturn is the farthest world that you can easily see with the eye alone. Although it’s more than 10 astronomical units (10 times the sun-Earth distance) away from Earth right now, Saturn nonetheless shines as brilliantly as a 1st-magnitude star. Because this huge planet has the volume of more than 750 Earth’s, and its reflective rings are tilting nearly maximally toward Earth, this world is rather bright in Earth’s sky in 2018."

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Atlantic Update

Here's a look at the Atlantic basin, which looks MUCH quieter than it did just a couple of days ago. However, take a look at LESLIE - way out there in the eastern Atlantic. Interestingly, this storm was a hurricane as of Saturday and will continue to impact Spain and Portugal through the rest of the weekend! This is VERY rare, in fact, this historic storm will likely be the first tropical system to ever impact the region on record. Good grief!

Tracking LESLIE

NOAA's NHC is tracking LESLIE in the extreme eastern eastern part of the Atlantic. Interestingly, this was a hurricane as of Saturday and will impact Portugal and Spain through the rest of the weekend. Interestingly, this is the closest a hurricane has ever gotten to these areas in modern day records!

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Tropical Climatology

This is neat map from NOAA's NHC, which shows where we typically see tropical cyclones develop during the middle part of October. Keep in mind that September 10th is the average peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, so even though we are passed the typical peak, things can still be VERY active.
 
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Average Peak of Atlantic Hurricane Season

According to NOAA, the average peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season is on September 10th. Note that on average, things are still pretty active through the 2nd half of September into October.
 

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2018 Lightning Fatalities - TWENTY

Did you know that lightning ranks as one of the top weather related killers in the U.S.? An average of nearly 50 people are killed each year in the United States and so far this year, 20 people have died from lightning; 16 have been males and only 4 have been females. Interestingly, from 2008-2017, 236 males have died, while only 65 females have died.

See Lightning Safety Tips From NOAA HERE:

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PRELIMINARY Tornado Count This Year

According to NOAAs SPC, the PRELIMINARY tornado count across the US this year stands at 957 (through October 11th). Note that this is less than the last couple of years, but more than what we had in 2013. Keep in mind that the short-term average (2005-2015) suggests an average of more than 1,257 tornadoes.


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Average Tornadoes in October By State

Here's the average number of tornadoes during the month of October by state. Texas sees the most with 8, while Minnesota averages only 1 tornado.

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Temperature Outlook Sunday
 
High temps on Sunday will be VERY chilly across much of the nation once again. In fact, take a look at Denver, CO! They are expecting a daytime high of 25F, which will be nearly -40F below average! Denver is even under a Winter Weather Advisory for the potential of 3" to 6" of snow through midday Sunday.
 
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Temperature Trend

BRR!!! This map looks very chilly, doesn't it? The blues and purples indicate below to well below average temperatures, which will impact much of the nation over the weekend and into early next week.

 

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC, October 20th - 26th looks looks a little bettern than it has been as of late. Tempertures across the country won't be quite as cold as what we're dealing with now, but chilly temps will still be found from the Northeast to the Southern US. While, folks in Florida and the Western half of the country will be warmer than average.

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Weather Outlook Ahead

The weather loop below shows fairly active conditions developing across the central and southern US as we head into the next couple of days. Note that remnants of SERGIO (from the Eastern Pacific) will continue to move through the southern US with areas of heavy rain. Another cold front will create very cold and wintry conditions across the Rockies and along the Front Range.

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Snow Potential
 
Here's the snow potential through Monday, which suggests fairly decent snow tallies across the high elevations of the Rockies and even into the Plains. Note that there will be folks in eastern Colorado, Kansas and even Nebraska that see some accumulations through early next week.
 

7 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's WPC, the 7-day precipitation outlook suggests areas of heavy rain across the Southern US, where some 2" to 5"+ tallies can't be ruled out. Meanwhile, folks in the Western US and the Upper Midwest look to stay fairly dry through the week ahead.


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US Drought Outlook

Thanks to areas of rain and s now across the Western US, there have been some small improvements in drought conditions since last week.

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"How climate change will affect your health"
 
"A new report from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warns of dire consequences if governments don't make "rapid, far-reaching, and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society" to stem global warming. But the planet isn't the only thing at risk as temperatures rise; your health might be in danger, too. Here are six ways that climate change might affect you, whether it's insect-borne disease or Type 2 diabetes."

See more from CNN HERE:

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"Things in the middle of the Arctic are getting really strange"

"In the deep middle of the remote Arctic Ocean, things are amiss. With the passage of summer, the ice — diminished by the warm season — is expected to regrow as frigid temperatures envelope the Arctic.  But, this year, it's not. Specifically, sea ice in the Central Arctic basin — a massive region of ocean some 4.5 million square kilometers in size — hasn't started its usual rapid expansion, and unusually warm temperatures in both the air and the ocean are largely to blame. "For the most part, Arctic sea ice normally begins rapidly refreezing this time of year," Zack Labe, a climate scientist and Ph.D. candidate at the University of California Irvine, said over email."

See more from Mashable HERE:

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"How a warming Arctic speeds up climate change — and spreads its damage"

"It's no mystery why the Arctic is warming 2 to 3 times faster than anywhere else on the planet. By now, scientists have made it as clear as they possibly can that climate change is real and greenhouse gas emissions are to blame. But what is perhaps less well known is the natural role the Arctic plays in both accelerating climate change and spreading its often disastrous consequences around the world.Recent events such as the prolonged rains of hurricanes Harvey and Florence and the persistent drought across the U.S. Midwest are linked to — though not necessarily directly caused by — climate change, climatologists warn.And while these events may seem disconnected from Canada's North, the truth is, it's the Arctic that is helping to fuel them."

See more from CBC HERE:


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"Huge Iceberg Poised to Break Off Antarctica's Pine Island Glacier"

"A newly discovered long and craggy rift is splintering across West Antarctica's Pine Island Glacier, satellite images show. The nearly 19-mile-long (30 kilometers) rift started in the middle of the ice shelf, where the ice shelf touches warmer ocean waters that are melting it from underneath, said Stef Lhermitte, an assistant professor in the Department of Geoscience and Remote Sensing at the Delft University of Technology in the Netherlands. The rift only has about another 6 miles (10 km) to go before one or more icebergs calf, breaking off from the glacier, Lhermitte said. Another such event happened a mere year ago in 2017, when an iceberg 4.5 times the size of Manhattan broke off Pine Island Glacier."

See more from Space.com HERE:

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"Freakishly warm ocean water is a major reason why Hurricane Michael became the strongest storm in decades"

"Hurricane Michael came roaring ashore in the Florida Panhandle on Wednesday. The Category 4 storm had maximum wind speeds of 155 mph as its eye touched down northwest of Mexico Beach. Based on its low central pressure, Michael is the strongest storm that region has ever seen, and the most powerful hurricane the US has weathered in nearly 50 years. The storm has already ripped roofs off of homes, sent a porta potty flying through the air, and inundated areas along the coast with more than 7 feet of water. Michael developed and organized quickly in the Gulf of Mexico, strengthening from a messy tropical depression into a swirling funnel in just 72 hours. Hurricane hunters still don't understand perfectly why storms go through such impressive periods of rapid intensification, but they do know that warm water provides the essential fuel for hurricanes to form."

See more from This Insider HERE:

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"Feel like Hurricane Michael came out of nowhereFeel like Hurricane Michael came out of nowhere? This is why? This is why"

"Unlike Florence, which originated off of Africa weeks before reaching the U.S., hurricanes this late in the season typically form much closer to America. For more than a week before it made landfall, meteorologists were sounding alarm bells about Florence, the devastating hurricane that slammed into the Carolinas on Sept. 14. Yet with Michael — the powerful hurricane that made landfall as a Category 4 storm in the Florida Panhandle on Wednesday — word of the storm came just days in advance. The reason why, according to forecasters: Unlike Florence, which formed off of Africa long before it arrived on U.S. shores, Michael just originated in the southwest Caribbean — closer and fewer days before landfall. Still, Michael was "no surprise," according to NBC News meteorologist Sherri Pugh. "The position difference changes your forecast lead time," she said. "That's why we could see Florence coming across. We were tracking what it would be for days. With Michael, we still had the same amount of information; it just formed closer."

See more from NBC News HERE:

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