Winter Weather Headlines
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY. * TIMING...EXPECT A WINTRY MIX TO DEVELOP AROUND 3 PM AND THEN DIMINISH AROUND 6 PM TUESDAY. * PRECIPITATION RATES...THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 6 PM THIS EVENING AND 6 AM TUESDAY. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. * WINDS / VISIBILITIES...WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 40 MPH ON TUESDAY WILL CAUSE PATCHY BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW... ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. VISIBILITIES OF ONE HALF MILE OR LESS ARE POSSIBLE.
Snowfall Potential Through PM Wednesday
Here's the snowfall potential through 6pm Wednesday, which shows some fairly hefty tallies across the Red River Valley. Note that there will be a fairly large swath of 6" to 10"+ from eastern North Dakota to northwestern Minnesota.
Snowy Start on Sunday
Many of us woke up to a slushy coating of snow on Sunday after a quick moving system rolled overnight Saturday/AM Sunday. It wasn't much, but it cause several accidents and spin outs as area roads became very slippery. Unfortunately for snow lovers, much of the snow will melt due to warm temperatures continuing on Sunday and Monday. In fact, temps on Monday will warm into the low/mid 40s across parts of southern MN.
Here's a look at snowfall tallies from across the region. There were several 1" to 3" tallies, but there was also a 4" report from near Inver Grove Heights. Thanks to above freezing temps during the day Sunday, much of that snow melted.
Radar Loop of Snow Ending AM Sunday
Here's the radar loop from early Sunday as the snow was ending across the Twin Cities. Heavier snow up to 1" to 3" fell across parts of the region, while just a light coating was found farther west.
Hawaii Weather Headlines
How many times have you seen Winter Storm Warnings for Hawaii? This was the watches/warnings map for Hawaii, which showed areas of heavy rain across much of Hawaii with heavy snow expected for the peaks on the Big Island through early Monday
Big Snow on the Big Island
Hawaii's highest peak could get up to another foot of snow Sunday, on top of the 2 feet that have fallen since Thursday, the National Weather Service says. A winter storm warning is in effect for the summits of Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea through Saturday evening. “Then we’re expecting another round on Sunday and Sunday night,” said Matthew Foster, a staff meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Honolulu. Snow on the peaks is not uncommon in the colder months of the year, though deep snow is rare. “We’ll probably see three to five snow events a year during the cold season. Some years we might not get any, some years we might get more,” said Foster. The only other area of Hawaii that gets snow with any regularity is the Haleakalā volcano on Maui, which at about 10,000 feet gets snow once every five years or so, he said."
"In this image made from webcam video provided by Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope, the CFHT telescope on the summit of Mauna Kea on Hawaii's Big Island is covered in snow on Thursday, Dec. 1, 2016. The National Weather Service in Honolulu has issued a winter storm warning for the summits of Hawaii's Big Island as wind and snow engulf the high peaks. (Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope via AP)"
Pacific Moisture Moves into the Pacific Northwest
Here's the Eastern Pacific precipitable water loop that shows heavier moisture from the Pacific moving into the West Coast in a few different waves. These rounds of heavier moisture have been responsible for heavier coastal rains and high elevation snow. Another one of these storms is moving through the Pacific Northwest now with heavier snow possible through early next week.
Another Surge of Heavier Pacific Moisture
Here's a look at the next storm system moving through the region through the early part of next week. Note that areas along the coast and in the lower elevations will likely see rain, while those in the higher elevations will see snow. Some spots could see 1ft to 2ft by early next week.
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THRU 11 AM MST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MISSOULA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM MST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * IMPACTS/TIMING: SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT AND SNOW INTENSITIES WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND WIND, VISIBILITY COULD BE GREATLY REDUCED, ESPECIALLY OVER MARIAS PASS. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS IS LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT. ALL OF THESE IMPACTS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: 10 TO 14 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MARIAS PASS. * WINDS: GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MILE PER HOUR POSSIBLE FOR MARIAS PASS.
Snow in the Northwest
Here's the snowfall potential through midday Midday, which shows fairly significant tallies across the Cascade range and across much of the northern Rockies. Some spots could see up to 1ft. to 2ft. through early next week.
According to NOAA's NOHRSC, 27.8% of the nation was covered up in snow as of December 4th. Last year at this time, 33.0% of the nation was covered up by snow!
...SUMMARY... A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. ...SYNOPSIS... IN MID/UPPER LEVELS...A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN TO CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA WILL SUPPORT BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC COAST TO THE APPALACHIANS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS THAT TROUGH DEEPENS... A SOUTHERN-STREAM 500-MB LOW -- NOW APPARENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER MEXICO SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND -- WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD. THE ASSOCIATED PERTURBATION...EVEN WITH SOME EXPECTED DEAMPLIFICATION...WILL REMAIN STRONG AS IT REACHES THE SABINE RIVER AREA BY 00Z...THEN THE APPALACHIANS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN GEORGIA BY 12Z. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WAS ANALYZED AT 11Z OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF...OFFSHORE FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. THIS LOW SHOULD MIGRATE TO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA BY 00Z AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE NEAR 12Z. AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF AND LOWER DELTA REGION...REACHING ALABAMA AND PERHAPS THE WESTERNMOST FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY 12Z. A CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED WARM-FRONTAL ZONE WAS DRAWN AT 11Z FROM THE LOW EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MOUTH...OFFSHORE MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE IRREGULARLY NORTHEASTWARD AT LEAST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL GEORGIA OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...CENTRAL GULF COAST TO GEORGIA... AT LEAST A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...OFFERING A RISK OF DAMAGING GUSTS. A SLIGHT RISK OF TORNADOES ALSO EXISTS...PRIMARILY ON THE CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DISCRETE OR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND QLCS MESOVORTICES TO ACCESS SURFACE PARCELS...WHILE REMAINING IN A VERY MOISTURE-RICH...LOW-LCL AND HIGH-HELICITY ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE WARM FRONT. MLCAPE 500-800 J/KG IS EXPECTED OVER INLAND AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THAT FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE PRE-COLD-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND. WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD EJECTION OF THE MEXICAN MIDDLE/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE...DEEP SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS OVER THAT PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR OCCUPYING THE NORTHERN GULF AND ADJACENT COAST...ALBEIT WITH A STRONG COMPONENT OF THE MEAN-WIND AND DEEP-SHEAR VECTORS PARALLEL TO BANDS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVECTIVE FORCING. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND VORTICITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM-FRONTAL ZONE. THAT WILL LEAD TO A NARROW FRONTAL CORRIDOR OF MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR/BUOYANCY JUXTAPOSITION FOR MESOCYCLONE INTENSIFICATION...BUT ALIGNED SUBSTANTIALLY ORTHOGONAL TO THE CELL-MOTION VECTOR. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE INLAND PENETRATION OF THAT FRONTAL ZONE...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR EPISODIC AREAS OF BOTH CONVECTIVE AND STRATIFORM PRECIP TO DEVELOP TO ITS NORTH AND HINDER POLEWARD PROGRESS OF THE BOUNDARY. THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SCENARIOS WITH BOTH WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH LEAST AGGRESSIVE ON COLD-SECTOR PRECIP WOULD EXTEND WEAKLY TO NEUTRALLY UNSTABLE NEAR-SURFACE PARCELS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA...WHILE THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS IN TURN LEADS TO UNCERTAIN INLAND EXTENT/TIMING OF SURFACE-BASED EFFECTIVE-INFLOW PARCELS OF AT LEAST NEUTRAL TO WEAK 0-1-KM INSTABILITY...ACCOUNTING FOR THE BROAD-BRUSHED SHAPE AND NORTHWARD RAMP-DOWN OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN THIS OUTLOOK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN AN ELEVATED WARM-ADVECTION AND MOISTURE-TRANSPORT CONVEYOR. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF MORE ROBUST LAPSE RATES AND BUOYANCY...ALONG WITH THE DENSE AND MESSY CONVECTIVE MODES LIKELY IN THAT REGIME...INDICATE AGAINST A SUBSTANTIAL HAIL THREAT. SEVERE WIND BECOMES LESS PROBABLE INLAND FROM THE WARM FRONT AS WELL...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENS AND BECOMES MORE STABLE WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT.
Severe Threat Tuesday
...SUMMARY... AT LEAST A MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST TUESDAY FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. ...NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTH GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA... DEAMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY. OCCLUDED LEE CYCLONE OVER THE OH VALLEY WILL WEAKEN...WHILE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE DEAMPLIFYING WAVE. A WEAKLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WILL HAVE MOVED INLAND THROUGH SOUTH GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN PROGRESS EARLY TUESDAY ALONG PRE-FRONTAL WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH A PORTION OF EASTERN ALABAMA INTO WESTERN GEORGIA. MOIST INFLOW TO THE UPDRAFTS WILL BE ROOTED NEAR THE SURFACE WITH UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 F DEWPOINTS...AND STORMS WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH INITIALLY LARGE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS PROMOTING A RISK FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. IT STILL APPEARS THAT WEAK LAPSE RATES...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND ONGOING AREAS OF RAIN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WEAK INSTABILITY WHICH MAY SERVE AS AN OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ROBUST SEVERE EVENT. AS INITIAL OCCLUDED LOW MOVES THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND NEW CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS...TENDENCY WILL BE FOR THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO VEER TO SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH MID MORNING WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN HODOGRAPH SIZE. THEREFORE...GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY SMALL WINDOW BETWEEN 12-18Z.
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... .RAINFALL RATES AND INTENSITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH TODAY AS A SURFACE LOW...ALONG WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. WET GROUNDS ARE CURRENTLY PREVALENT OVER A MAJORITY OF THE AREA FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS...AND AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE FLOODING. THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...ENDING THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
MN Snow Depth & Ranking
Here's a look at the snow depth across the state as of Thursday, December 1st. Note that much of the heavy snow that fell across western and northern MN a couple of weeks ago has since melted due to the ongoing mild weather through the end of November.
Each Thursday during the cold season, the State Climatology Office produces maps depicting the snow depth across Minnesota. Additionally, maps are created that depict snow depth ranking for the date. The data are provided by volunteers working with DNR Forestry, the National Weather Service, the University of Minnesota, Soil and Water Conservation Districts and CoCoRaHS.
Somewhat Active Pattern With Colder Temps Ahead.
Here's the weather outlook from Monday to Monday of next weekend. Note that we seem to have a few shots of light precipitation across the region with perhaps a better chance of snow next weekend. The big story will be the MUCH colder weather funneling into the region by the 2nd half of the week. This will be some of the coldest air of the season with highs dipping to well below normal temps for a several day period.
Mild Monday. Single Digit Wind Chills Midweek
I feel like Mother Nature is a little groggy this year. She's certainly had tough time getting winter started. Sure, we've had a few bouts of snow here and there, but nothing has been sticking because it's been so warm!
The Twin Cities was officially 7 inches below normal snowfall for the month of November only tallying up 2.3 inches. We had nearly all of that with our weak storm system that moved through late Saturday night/early Sunday morning, but again most of it melted due to above freezing temps.
Temps warm to near 40 degrees across the southern half of the state on Monday ahead of our biggest cool down of the season that will settle in later this week. Single digit wind chills will have most of us reaching for extra layers Wednesday through Friday.
We sneak up close to average this weekend as another light snow chance moves through, but the long range temperature forecast keeps us below average through the middle part of the month.
No major snow storms brewing yet, but temps 'should' be cold enough to favor a white Xmas.
Extended Weather Outlook
MONDAY: Mild. Light mix later. Winds: SSW 10-15. High: 41.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy, slight chance of light snow. Winds: W 10. Low: 25.
TUESDAY: AM flakes, turning breezy and cooler. Winds: W 10-20. High: 29
WEDNESDAY: Brisk wind, A few flurries. Winds: WNW 10-15. Wake-up: 14. High: 19
THURSDAY: Colder. Scattered light snow showers. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 13. High: 20.
FRIDAY: Less wind. More sun, still chilly. Winds: ESE 5-10. Wake-up:10. High: 19.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds, chance of snow. Winds: SE 5. Wake-up: 11. High: 22.
SUNDAY: Lingering light snow, more PM sun. Winds: WNW 5. Wake-up: 16. High: 20.
This Day in Weather History
2001: An unseasonably warm December day occurs, with a high of 63 degrees at the Twin Cities. Summer-like thunderstorms developed and dropped quarter-sized hail at the Eyota Post Office in Olmsted County.
1979: Mild air moves in to Minnesota, with highs of 52 at St. Cloud and 54 at Browns Valley.
1928: Canby receives three inches of snow or greater for the third consecutive day.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
Average High: 30F (Record: 63F set in 2001)
Average Low: 16F (Record: -14F set in 1873)
Record Snowfall: 7.0" set in 1909
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
*Daylight Lost Since Yesterday: ~1mins & 14sec
*Daylight Lost Since Summer Solstice: ~6hours and 38mins
Moon Phase for December 5th at Midnight
1.1 Days Before First Quarter
Weather Outlook Monday
High temps on Monday will be quite warm ahead of a cold front that will bring us our coldest air of the season later this week. Note that some spots in southern MN will warm to near 40F!
Weather Outlook Monday
Winds will be a little stronger on Monday as our next system gets closer. Note that sustained winds will be nearly 10mph to 15mph with wind gusts across southern MN reaching 20mph+.
Weather Outlook Monday
Another system moves through the region on Monday with a light rain/snow mix across central MN. The best chance of snow will be found across the northern half of the state with some minor accumulations possible there through Tuesday.
Extended Weather Outlook
The temperature outlook for Minneapolis into next weekend shows some big changes coming through the weather pipeline. Note the warming taking place through Monday, but a fairly significant whack of colder air settles in by the middle and end of next week with highs dipping into the 10s and 20s. Overnight lows will also dip into the single digits and 10s across much of the state.
6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's CPC, the 6 to 10 day temperature outlook suggests colder than average temperatures settling into the region as we continue through the first half of December. Note that this will likely be some of the coldest air of the season for many spots across the Upper Midwest.
6 to 10 Day Temp Outlook
Here's the national temperature outlook from December 10th - December 14th, which shows a big chunk for colder than average temperatures settling into much of the nation. This will be one of the first big colder outbreaks of the season.... Are you ready!
National Weather Outlook
The weather looks to be fairly active across the southeastern US as we head through the early week time frame. A large blob of Gulf of Mexico moisture will continue moving northeast with heavy rainfall and scattered storms, some possibly strong to severe through Tuesday. Meanwhile, heavier moisture in the form of coastal rain and high elevation snow will move into the Pacific Northwest.
According to NOAA's WPC, the 5 day precipitation outlook suggests significant moisture across the southeastern US through the end of next week. Widespread 2" to 4"can't be ruled out. This may lead to areas of flooding near the Lower Mississippi Valley, but this additional heavy rain will be very beneficial for the drought conditions in the Southeast.
US Drought Monitor
Here's the updated drought monitor from Thursday, December 1st, which shows widespread extreme to exceptional drought conditions across much of the Southeast. While heavy rainfall last week helped some, we need more, so the upcoming heavy rainfall through the first full week of December (next week) is good news!
Rainfall Needed to End Drought
The product below suggests how much rainfall is needed to end the drought. Note that many spots need nearly a foot of rain or more to end the drought. These are the areas that are in an extreme to exceptional drought!
National Snowfall Outlook
Here's the potential snowfall through the the middle part of December, which shows the POTENTIAL of heavier snow developing across the northern tier of the nation over the next couple of weeks. This would be a big change from what we had during much of November as it was a generally quiet and warm month across the nation.
"U.S. Oil Exports Skyrocket Despite Climate Pacts"
"Seven years ago, the U.S. exported its crude oil to just one country — Canada. This year, 22 countries received American crude oil, marking a more than 1,000 percent increase in U.S. oil exports since 2009, according to U.S. Department of Energy data released this week. Since Congress lifted restrictions on American oil exports a year ago, more and more U.S. crude oil has been streaming onto the global oil market to supply the world’s growing demand. It’s happening even as the U.S. and Canada have agreed to cut emissions from oil and gas operations and countries agree to cut their greenhouse gas pollution under the Paris Climate Agreement. The international pact aims to prevent global warming from exceeding 2°C (3.6°F)."
(An oil well in Colorado. Credit: C.L. Baker/flickr)
"Small tornado hits Russia's Olympic city Sochi"
"A small tornado descended on Russia's Olympic city Sochi as stormy weather battered the coastline."
"Space Farming: NASA Tests New Harvest Technique To Increase ISS Crop Yield"
"NASA astronauts on board the International Space Station on Friday reaped the first harvest of red romaine lettuce leaves grown on the orbiting space lab last month. These vegetables were grown using the "Veggie" plant growth system on the ISS, and were harvested as part of a technique the space agency calls "cut-and-come-again." "Cut-and-come-again is a repetitive harvest technique in which a selection of leaves can be harvested for a bit of fresh lettuce and possibly science samples," NASA explained in a statement. "The remaining leaves and the core of the plant are left intact and will continue to grow and produce more leaves for subsequent harvests approximately every 10 days." The goal of this technique is to improve the yield of crops being grown in the micro-gravity environment of space, where plant roots grow every which way, making it excruciatingly difficult for them to absorb the nutrients and water they need to survive."
(An artist's concept showing plants being grown in space. Photo: NASA)
Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX