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Feverish Friday. Cloudy with showers late weekend

Sunnier Thursday in Northern Minnesota
 
Weather conditions across the northern half of the state were quite a bit brighter Thursday afternoon. Take a look at the beautiful webcam from Canal Park in downtown Duluth, MN. 
 
Visible Satellite on Thursday

While brighter sunshine persisted across the northern half of the state on Thursday, it was cloudy across the southern half of the state. Here's the visible satellite image from Thursday. Note the large lakes of Upper & Lower Red, Leech and Mille Lacs are still bright white, which indicates that they are still ice covered.

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2017 Ice Out Dates
 
According to the MN DNR, several Minnesota lakes have already gone ice out this year, which is well ahead of normal. Thanks to continued above average this winter and early spring, some lakes have even seen an record early ice out this year! The images below are the current 2017 lake ice out dates and the median lake ice out dates.
 
 
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Solar Wind Storm
 
If you've keeping up to date with latest northern lights forecasts and were lucky enough to venture out at the right time with the right weather conditions, you may have had a chance to see the illusive northern lights this week! Here's an excerpt from Spaceweather.com regarding the most recent storm: For the 3rd consecutive day, our planet is inside a stream of fast-moving solar wind flowing from a canyon-shaped hole in the sun's atmosphere. The gaseous material is pressing against Earth's magnetic field with speeds exceeding 600 km/s. Earth's response: A light show around the poles. Last night, Layton Findlater saw the Southern Lights shining through clouds over Invercargill, New Zealand: "Another night of brief but intense auroras," says Findlater. "Hopefully, we can make it three nights running here in the Deep South."
 
 
(Image courtesy: Findlater Photography via Spaceweather)
 
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Northern Lights Potential Continues...
 
Due to an Earth-facing storm on the sun, northern lights have been quite this week! Here's an excerpt from spaceweather.com from a few days ago, which detailed why northern lights have been so active this week: POTENT CORONAL HOLE FACES EARTH: A canyon-shaped hole in the sun's atmosphere is facing Earth, and it is spewing a stream of fast-moving solar wind toward our planet.  NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory photographed the giant fissure on March 25th: This is a "coronal hole" (CH) -- a vast region where the sun's magnetic field opens up and allows solar wind to escape.  A gaseous stream flowing from this coronal hole is expected to reach our planet on during the late hours of March 27th and could spark moderately-strong G2-class geomagnetic storms around the poles on March 28th or 29th. We've seen this coronal hole before.  In early March, it lashed Earth's magnetic field with a fast-moving stream that sparked several consecutive days of intense auroras around the poles. The coronal hole is potent because it is spewing solar wind threaded with "negative polarity" magnetic fields. Such fields do a good job connecting to Earth's magnetosphere and energizing geomagnetic storms. Arctic sky watchers should be alert for auroras!
 
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Northern Lights Potential Continues on Friday, March 31st & Saturday, April 1st
 
According to the Geophysical Institute at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, the northern lights potential is HIGH for Friday, March 31st and ACTIVE for Saturday, April 1st! Here's their forecast below:
 
 
Friday, March 31st: Auroral activity will be HIGH. Weather permitting, highly active auroral displays will be visible overhead from Inuvik, Yellowknife, Rankin and Igaluit to Juneau, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Thunder Bay and Sept-Iles, and visible low on the horizon from Seattle, Des Moines, Chicago, Cleveland, Boston, and Halifax.
 
Saturday, April 1st: Forecast: Auroral activity will be active. Weather permitting, active auroral displays will be visible overhead from Inuvik, Yellowknife, Rankin and Igaluit to Juneau, Edmonton, Winnipeg and Sept-Iles, and visible low on the horizon from Vancouver, Great Falls, Pierre, Madison, Lansing, Ottawa, Portland and St. Johns.

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Active Weather Continues

Weather conditions across the country will remain quite active through the weekend and early next week across the Southern US as Pacific storms continue to slide across the country. These storms have been responsible for fairly impressive precipitation amounts in the Western US, including heavy snow in the higher elevations. As they move into the Plains, they become severe weather makers, which has been an ongoing situation since the beginning of the week. Here's the simulated radar through early next week, which shows additional storm systems pushing across the country with more high elevation snow and strong to severe thunderstorm potential.
 

Several Weather Threats Ahead 

According to NOAA's SPC, the risk of severe weather continues right through the weekend and potentially into early next week. The images below are the severe threats on Friday, Saturday and Sunday respectively. In these particular areas, large hail, damaging winds, isolated tornadoes and locally heavy rainfall will all be possible. 



Southern Rainfall Potential

With the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms continuing over the next several days, heavy rainfall will be possible as well. Take a look at the precipitation potential through Tuesday, which suggests some 3" to near 6"+ rainfall tallies across the region, especially along and east of the Mississippi River Valley.

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2017 PRELIMINARY Tornado Count

According to NOAA's SPC, the PRELIMINARY tornado count for 2017 is at 410 (thru March 29). Interestingly, this is the highest number of tornado reports (thru March 29th) since 2012 when nearly 500 tornadoes were reported through that time frame. The 2005-2015 average number of tornado reports through March 29th is 214. 

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Late March Snow in the Northeast
 
The same storm system responsible for severe weather in the Central US over the past couple of days will be responsible for wintry weather across parts of the Northeast Friday & Saturday. Winter weather headlines have been posted for the potential of 8" to 12" of wet heavy snow that could lead to major travel concerns and even power outages.
 
 
Snowfall Potential in the Northeast
 
Here's the snowfall potential through Saturday, which suggests a fairly decent 4" to 8" swatch across the region with some 8" to 12" amounts across the higher elevations. The late March snow could be very wet and heavy in spots that could lead to some power outages.
 
 
Simulated Radar Through
 
Here's the simulated radar through early Sunday morning, which suggests the heaviest precipitation moving through the region on Friday and Saturday before tapering late Saturday night. While some across the far north and into the high elevations will see snow, others will see a steady rain, which could accumulated to 1" through Saturday.
 
 
Winter Weather Concerns in the Western US
 
Another storm system will push through the Western US through the first half of the weekend with heavy snowfall potential across the higher elevations. The National Weather Service has issued a number of weather headlines through PM Saturday for snowfall potential of up to 12" or more!
 
 
Western Snowfall Potential
 
Here's the snowfall potential through PM Saturday, which shows heavy snowfall tallies across parts of the Intermountain West. Keep in mind that some of the heaviest amounts could top the 12" mark
 
 
Precipitation Continues in the Western US This Week
 
Here's the weather outlook through the middle part of next week, which shows two waves of heavier moisture moving through the region. Note that there will be a mix of rain and mountain snow as these systems push through.
 

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California Snowpack’s Water Content Remains Far above Average
 
According to the California Department of Water Resources, the California snowpack is running 164% of historical average for March 30th! The average statewide snow water equivalent (SWE) is 45.8" !! WOW, that a lot of water locked up in the snowy mountains! Here's an excerpt from a news release 
SACRAMENTO – With every monthly measurement of the California snowpack this winter, the state’s rebound from the previous five years of drought becomes more evident. Today’s electronic readings from 95 sites in the Sierra Nevada show an average statewide snow water equivalent (SWE) of 45.8 inches, or 164 percent of the historical average for March 30 (27.9 inches).

Today’s manual snow survey by the Department of Water Resources (DWR) at Phillips Station in the Sierra Nevada found a SWE of 46.1 inches, 183 percent of the late March/early April long-term average at Phillips (25.2 inches). The three previous 2017 surveys at Phillips near the beginning of March, February and January found an SWE of 43.5 inches for March, 28 inches for February and 6 inches for January. SWE is the depth of water that theoretically would result if the entire snowpack melted instantaneously. That measurement is more important than depth in evaluating the status of the snowpack. On average, the snowpack supplies about 30 percent of California’s water needs as it melts in the spring and early summer. Electronic measurements indicate the water content of the northern Sierra snowpack is 40.8 inches, 147 percent of the multi-decade March 30 average. The central and southern Sierra readings are 50.5 inches (175 percent of average) and 43.9 inches (164 percent of average), respectively. Dr. Michael Anderson, State Climatologist, observed: “Although the record pace of the snowpack accumulation fell off significantly in March, California enters the snowmelt season with a large snowpack that will result in high water in many rivers through the spring." The Phillips snow course, near the intersection of Highway 50 and Sierra-at-Tahoe Road, is one of hundreds surveyed manually throughout the winter. Manual measurements augment the electronic readings from about 100 sensors in the state’s mountains that provide a current snapshot of the water content in the snowpack. Frank Gehrke, chief of the California Cooperative Snow Surveys Program, conducted DWR’s survey today at Phillips and said of his findings, "The storm track shifted away from California during March, but we still have a very substantial snowpack, particularly in the higher elevations in the central and southern Sierra. This is an extremely good year from the snowpack standpoint,” he said, adding that this year’s snowpack ranks in the upper quarter of historic snowpacks and is providing “great reservoir recovery.” Many Californians continue to experience the effects of drought, and some Central Valley communities still depend on water tanks and bottled water.  Groundwater – the source of at least a third of the supplies Californians use – will take much more than even an historically wet water year to be replenished in many areas.


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Precipitation Last 90 Days

Here's an interesting map! The radar estimated precipitation over the last 90 days suggests that nearly 40"+ of liquid precipitation has fallen across parts of the Western US since the end of December 2016! A steady stream of Pacific moisture earlier in the year really helped to boost precipitation values across the region.


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Steady Stream of Pacific Moisture
 
The precipitable water loop from the Eastern Pacific shows plumes of highly concentrated water moving into the West Coast. These streams are and will continue to be responsible for fairly decent amounts of precipitation over the next several days.
 
 
Western Precipitation Potential
 
Here's a look at the precipitation potential through the middle part of week, which shows some of the heaviest precipitation across parts of the Central Rockies, but there also appears to be some additional moisture across parts of the Sierra Nevada Range and along the coast of northern California to Oregon and Washington.
 

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Drought Worsens in the Southeast
 
According to the US Drought Monitor, drought conditions in the Southeast continue to intensify. While EXTREME drought conditions have decreased from nearly 3% to a little more than 1%, more of the area under abnormally dry conditions going from 70% last week to nearly 85% this week.
 
Rainfall Potential in the Southeast
 
The good news is that active weather conditions will help bring the potential of widespread heavy rainfall to the region through early next week. According to the 5 day precipitation forecast, some spots from new New Orleans, LA to the Mid-Atlantic States could see as much as 2" to 4" of rain with isolated spots seeing nearly 5" to 6"+!
 

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Feverish Friday. Cloudy with showers late weekend
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas

Happy last day of March 2017! Are you sad to see it go? It has been in interesting month, no question. From our earliest Minnesota tornado(es) on record (March 6th) to a persistent southerly storm track keeping snowfall amounts down, March 2017 has been a memorable one.

Note that March is typically the 3rd snowiest month for the Twin Cities, which averages a little more than 10 inches. This year, we are running a deficit of nearly 5 inches, bringing our seasonal snowfall deficit to a little more 20 inches. Snow shovels across Central Minnesota were cheated this year, while those in southern Minnesota were put to extra use. Rochester, MN has seen more than 50 inches of snow this season, nearly 5 inches above average.

Average temps in the Twin Cities were running below average through mid March, but have since warmed. It'll be close, but March 2017 will likely end up being the 19th consecutive month with above normal temps! Unreal.

Mild sunshine will brighten spirits Friday. Clouds thicken Saturday and give to showers Sunday.
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Extended Forecast:

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy, drying out. Winds: NE 5. Low: 33

FRIDAY: Sun returns! Feels warm again. Winds: NE 5-10. High: 53.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy and chilly. Winds: NNE 5. Low: 34.

SATURDAY: Hazy sun. Mild temps. Winds: ESE 5. High: 58.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Winds: SE 5-15. Wake-up: 40. High: 55.

MONDAY: Soggy start. Clearing through the day, but dry for Twins Home Opener. Winds: NNW 5-10. Wake-up: 41. High: 59

TUESDAY: Clouds thicken late. A few PM showers. Winds: ENE 10-15. Wake-up: 40. High: 58

WEDNESDAY: Breezy. Steady rains across S. MN. Winds: NNE 10-20. Wake-up: 40. High: 52.

THURSDAY: Cooler breeze. Slow clearing. Winds: NNW 10-20. Wake-up: 35. High: 50.
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This Day in Weather History
March 31st

1896: A strong snowstorm dumps 13.5 inches of snow at Maple Plain. Vivid lightning is also in the storm with 10-12 flashes per minute. Visibility was down to less than one block. The high temperature was 57 at Maple Plain the day before.

1843: The low temperature at Ft. Snelling plummets to -11.
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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
March 31st

Average High: 49F (Record: 82F set in 1986)
Average: Low: 30F (Record: -1F set in 1969)

*Record Snowfall: 14.7" set in 1985
 
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Sunrise Sunset Times For Minneapolis
March 31st

Sunrise: 6:55am
Sunset: 7:40pm

*Daylight Gained Since Yesterday: ~3 minutes & 7 seconds
*Daylight Gained Since Winter Solstice (December 21st): ~4 hours & 1 minute

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Moon Phase for March 30th at Midnight
3.2 Days Since New Moon

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Weather Outlook For Friday

After a couple of cloudy days across parts of the state, the sun will return Friday, which will help to boost temperatures into the 50s! A lighter breeze may help to keep temperatures down a bit, but with the sun as strong as it is now, it will feel quite warm Friday afternoon!

Weather Outlook For Friday

Winds on Friday will be fairly light across much of the region, but could get up close to 10mph to 15mph across parts of southern Minnesota on Friday afternoon. All and all, Friday will be a very enjoyable day with more sunshine, mild temperatures and a light breeze.

 
Weather Outlook For Friday

Here's the weather outlook for Friday, which shows mostly dry and mostly sunny weather conditions across the region. There maybe a few more clouds across the extreme southeastern and northwestern part of the state, but Friday looks very quiet. 

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Quiet Friday & Saturday, but a Soggy Sunday Ahead
 
Here's the weather outlook through early Monday morning, which shows pretty quiet weather conditions on Friday and Saturday, but our next storm system rolls in on Sunday. Enjoy the sunshine while you can Friday because clouds will be on the increase on Saturday ahead of scattered showers that will push through on Sunday.
 
 
Precipitation Potential
 
Here's the precipitation potential through early next week, which shows a little light rain across parts of southern Minnesota. Some spots could see up to a couple of tenths of an inch of rain as our next storm system pushes through late weekend.
 
 
Extended Temperature Outlook for Minneapolis

Here's the temperature outlook through April 14th, which shows temperatures gradually warming over the next several days with highs sliding into the 50s & 60s as we head into the first couple of weeks of April. Note that the average high temperatures in the Twin Ciites on March 31st is 49F, while the average high on April 14th is 57F!

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8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook suggests warmer than average temperatures in the Upper Midwest from April 8th - April 12th.


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Temperature Outlook

Here's the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook, which takes us into the 2nd week of April. Note that warmer than average temperatures look to develop across much of the nation, while the only cooler than average spot would be found across parts of the Western US.

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 National Weather Outlook

Here's the weather outlook through the weekend, which shows active weather conditions continuing across much of the nation. While one storm system moves into the Eastern US with strong to severe storms and snow, another storm system slides out of the Western US. This next storm will go from snow across the higher elevations to more strong to severe storms across the Central US this weekend.

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5 Day Precipitation Forecast

According to NOAA's WPC, the 5 day precipitation forecast suggests widespread 2" to 4"+ of precipitation across parts of the Southern and Eastern US with some 1" to 3"+ tallies across parts of the Intermountain West. This certainly has been a very active weather pattern across the country over the last several days and it appears to continue to be active into early April!

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Snowfall Potential

Here's the snowfall potential over the next several days, which shows some accumulations across parts of the Northeast and in the Western mountains. Other than that, there doesn't appear to be any major snow events brewing across the Central US anytime soon.

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"Climate change's toll on mental health"

"When people think about climate change, they probably think first about its effects on the environment, and possibly on their physical health. But climate change also takes a significant toll on mental health, according to a new report released by the American Psychological Association and ecoAmerica entitled Mental Health and Our Changing Climate: Impacts, Implications, and Guidance. Climate change-induced severe weather and other natural disasters have the most immediate effects on mental health in the form of the trauma and shock due to personal injuries, loss of a loved one, damage to or loss of personal property or even the loss of livelihood, according to the report. Terror, anger, shock and other intense negative emotions that can dominate people's initial response may eventually subside, only to be replaced by post-traumatic stress disorder."

See more from ScienceDaily.com HERE:

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"Study: Climate change is affecting the jet stream so that extreme weather is more likely to persist for longer periods"

"Ever since 2012, scientists have been debating a complex and frankly explosive idea about how a warming planet will alter our weather - one that, if it's correct, would have profound implications across the Northern Hemisphere and especially in its middle latitudes, where hundreds of millions of people live. The idea is that climate change doesn't merely increase the overall likelihood of heat waves, say, or the volume of rainfall - it also changes the flow of weather itself. By altering massive planet-scale air patterns like the jet stream, which flows in waves from west to east in the Northern Hemisphere, a warming planet causes our weather to become more stuck in place. This means that a given weather pattern, whatever it may be, may persist for longer, thus driving extreme droughts, heat waves, downpours and more. This basic idea has sparked half a decade of criticism and debate, and at the cutting edge of research, scientists continue to grapple with it. And now, a new study once again reinforces one of its core aspects."

See more from PostandCourier HERE:

(Visualization of very wavy Northern Hemisphere jet stream. A study shows that the large scale flow of the atmosphere is changing in such a way as to cuase weather to get stuck more often. (NASA))


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"Farming becoming riskier under climate change"

Scientists the world over are working to predict how climate change will affect our planet. It is an extremely complex puzzle with many moving parts, but a few patterns have been consistent, including the prediction that farming as we know it will become more difficult.Scientists the world over are working to predict how climate change will affect our planet. It is an extremely complex puzzle with many moving parts, but a few patterns have been consistent, including the prediction that farming as we know it will become more difficult. Scientists infer the impact on agriculture based on predictions of rainfall, drought intensity, and weather volatility. Until now, however, the average farmer may not have been able to put predictions like these into practice. A new University of Illinois study puts climate change predictions in terms that farmers are used to: field working days. "Everything else flows from field working days," says U of I and USDA Agricultural Research Service ecologist Adam Davis. "If you're not able to work, everything else gets backed up. Workable days will determine the cultivars, the cropping system, and the types of pest management practices you can use. We're simply asking, 'Can you get in to plant your crop?'" In a previous study, the group developed models that reliably translated past climate data into field working days for Illinois. In the new study, they coupled those models with climate change scenarios to forecast field working days into the future."

See more from Phys.org HERE:

(Credit: Bobby Mikul/public domain via Phys.org)


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"Climate change: China calls US 'selfish' after Trump seeks to bring back coal"

"State-run tabloid says Beijing cannot fill vacuum left by US and urges west to pressure Trump on global warming. Chinese state media has lambasted Donald Trump’s efforts to roll back many Obama-era environmental regulations, with a state-run tabloid saying that: “No matter how hard Beijing tries, it won’t be able to take on all the responsibilities that Washington refuses to take.” In an editorial highly critical of Trump’s retreat on environmental regulation, the Global Times made it clear Beijing was uncomfortable taking over leadership of the fight against climate change and could not fill the vacuum left by the US. “Western opinion should continue to pressure the Trump administration on climate change. Washington’s political selfishness must be discouraged,” the editorial said. “China will remain the world’s biggest developing country for a long time. How can it be expected to sacrifice its own development space for those developed western powerhouses?”"

See more from The Guardian HERE:

(Donald Trump has previously called climate change a hoax created by the Chinese. Photograph: Bloomberg via Getty Images)

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"China's secret plan to crush SpaceX and the US space program"

"China's breakneck economic expansion may be flagging, but the country's ambitions in space show no signs of slowing down. Alongside ongoing efforts to rival NASA by placing robotic landers, and eventually astronauts, on the moon and Mars, China's government is increasingly looking to its burgeoning space sector to rival U.S. companies like Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin and Elon Musk's SpaceX, which is targeting March 30 for the latest launch of its Falcon 9 rocket. Though Chinese space authorities have publicly announced the country's ambitions to forge itself into a major space power by the early 2030s, President Xi Jinping's government is also considering ways to direct spending that will push Chinese tech companies toward breakthroughs in downstream technologies like robotics, aerospace, artificial intelligence, big data analytics and other 21st-century technologies. The majority of China's space ambitions remain focused on boosting Chinese prestige at home and abroad. But a push within Xi's government to triple spending on space science as well as the emergence of a small but growing group of privately backed space start-ups suggest that both Chinese industry and government see long-term economic benefits in their investments in space technologies."

See more from CNBC HERE:

(Imaginechina via AP Images -In this TV grab, Chinas latest manned space capsule docked with the lab, the Tiangong-1 in space, 13 June 2013.)

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"SpaceX And NASA Find ‘Landing Site’ For 2020 Mars Mission"

"SpaceX finally picked a suitable landing site for its 2020 Mars Mission, after working in cooperation with NASA’s JTL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory). The two organizations picked four regions of Mars as potential landing sites. Deuteronilus Mensae, Phlegra Montes, Utopia Planitia, and Arcadia Planitia (the names will be familiar to all Mars trilogy readers) are all placed on the Mars’ northern hemisphere and they all offer suitable conditions such as proximity to Mars’ ice deposits (that will be used as a water source for future astronauts), a good potential for using solar power, and a closeness to scientifically interesting spots. Scientists at JPL and SpaceX used the HiRISE high-definition camera on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter for picking the potential landing spots and after detailed reconnaissance, they determined that only Arcadia Planitia is smooth enough for performing a landing."

See more from mobipicker HERE:

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"NASA looking at spaceport in lunar orbit as deep space gateway to Mars"

WASHINGTON – NASA hasn’t officially scrapped its mission to use an asteroid as a stepping stone to Mars but it’s taking steps to chart a new approach that instead would rely on a spaceport circling the moon. Under a program dubbed Deep Space Gateway, agency officials Tuesday said they still plan to use the lunar orbit as a staging platform to build and test the infrastructure and the systems needed to send astronauts to Mars. But instead of breaking off a chunk of asteroid and dragging it to the moon, NASA's new plan calls for building an orbiting spaceport that could have even more uses. The space port, a mini space station in essence, would serve as a gateway for missions both to deep space and the lunar surface. Though not designed for a permanent crew, the spaceport would be equipped with a small habitat for astronauts, docking capability, an airlock, and would be serviced by logistics modules to enable research, according to NASA.

See more from USAToday HERE:

(Picture taken on November 14, 2016 shows the supermoon rising above Cape Town.(Photo: RODGER BOSCH, AFP/Getty Images via USAToday)


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"Trump's NASA budget preserves Mars mission, cuts Earth science, asteroid trip, education"

WASHINGTON — No more mission to bring astronauts to an asteroid, but stable funding for a trip to Mars. A cut in Earth science programs, but support for a mission to study Jupiter’s icy moon Europa. Elimination of education programs, but more resources to improve cybersecurity of the space program. President Trump is proposing a $19.1 billion budget for NASA in 2018 that is about the same as the current year’s $19.3 billion allocation – not bad considering the president is proposing deep cuts in many non-Defense programs. EPA alone would see a 31% reduction. But Trump’s vision for NASA calls for some dramatic shifts from the priorities the space agency pursued under President Obama, according to a broad budget outline the White House released Thursday. Line-item details on the administration’s proposed spending plan for NASA and other executive branch agencies are expected in the coming weeks.

See more from USAToday HERE:

(A handout photo released by the European Space Agency on Feb. 2, 2017, shows a perspective view of the Mars north polar ice cap and its distinctive dark troughs forming a spiral-like pattern.(Photo: European Pressphoto Agency/European Space Agency)


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Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

Limping into Spring - Super Bowl of Weather - Perils of Tornado Chasing

Minnesota: Land of Low Weather Expectations

"Springtime is the land awakening. The March winds are the morning yawn" said Lewis Grizzard in "Kathy Sue Loudermilk, I Love You".

Hawaiians brag about palm trees and a sweet, lukewarm breeze. Californians can be major league weather snobs. Floridians LOVE to talk about the weather - until hurricane season rolls around.

Minnesota? We are often ankle-deep in mud, with dust blowing in our face. We're happy when the weather isn't trying to murder us.

Think about it, Minnesota temperature extremes range from -60F to 115F. 98.6 inches of snow in the metro 1983-84. 110 Minnesota tornadoes in 2010. Welcome to the Super Bowl of Weather.

Our weather remains relatively benign into next week as tornado-producing storms pinwheel well south of the state. Showers taper early today; glimmers of sun Friday and Saturday before a few lonely showers sprout Sunday. ECMWF guidance hints at showers the middle of next week - maybe 60 degrees the second week of April.

Precipitation since January 1 is running an inch below average at MSP. Remind me not to whine about a soaking rain anytime soon.


Super Bowl of Weather. The graphic above shows Minnesota's most eye-opening weather extremes, courtesy of the Minnesota DNR. The only thing that's changed is record annual precipitation, which was broken in 2016: 56.24" in Waseca. Details here.




Storm Chaser Deaths are Rare, But Just How Safe is Tornado Hunting? I've been "chasing" in Oklahoma numerous times, with a very healthy respect for mesocyclones and tornadoes, but scared out of my mind about traffic jams on country roads and people driving like possessed alcoholics when a funnel or tornado is sighted. There is such a mad, reckless rush to get to the scene and get the money-shot. USA TODAY has more details on the recent, horrific death of 3 storm chasers in Texas: "...During severe weather outbreaks, the Plains or South can become clogged with scores of vehicles crammed with scientists, weather enthusiasts, tourists and thrill seekers, all armed with mountains of electronics to hunt tornadoes. The greatest danger lies in those reckless few who take lots of risks and have little to no scientific training. "Extreme (or "outlaw") storm chasing has become relatively widespread, likely in part because of what people routinely see in entertainment media," storm chaser and retired National Weather Service meteorologist Charles Doswell noted on his blog last year. "It's not reflective of the majority of chasers, but extreme chasers apparently like to think of themselves as 'above' most other chasers," he said. "The whole notion of being an 'extreme' chaser is considered in those circles as a badge of honor, worn with pride by those willing to do virtually anything to catch a sensational event, right up to the edges of death..."

Photo credit: "Texas Department of Public Safety troopers investigate a two-vehicle crash that left several storm chasers dead Tuesday , March 28, 2017, near Spur, Texas. Tornadoes had been reported nearby at the time of the crash and heavy rain had been reported in the area, according to the National Weather Service." (Photo: Ellysa Gonzalez, AP)


Moderate Risk Today. Severe weather will continue east into the day Thursday, with already a Moderate Risk of severe weather in place from southwest Kentucky to northern Mississippi. This includes the cities of Clarksville (TN) and Tupelo (MS). The environment will continue to be ripe for severe weather as we head into the afternoon and evening hours, with the potential of strong tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds.


Thursday Storm Timing. Already by the mid-afternoon hours on Thursday our guidance is showing that storms will be redeveloping from southwestern Kentucky through central Mississippi. These storms will continue to move east into the evening hours, impacting areas like Nashville and Louisville around 9 PM. These storms will be capable of large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes. In the Moderate Risk area, we will be watching the potential of a few strong tornadoes as well as very large hail (2”+ in diameter). Source: meteorologist D.J. Kayser, Praedictix.



30 Second vs. 1 Minute Visible Imagery for Severe Convection. A new image every 30 seconds with GOES-16? Amazing. Here's an excerpt at Satellite Liason Blog: "An SPC Day 1 Moderate Risk for severe thunderstorms was issued for March 28, 2017 as yet another potent shortwave trough moved through the southern Plains. SPC requested GOES-East Rapid scan mode, and both GOES-16 mesoscale sectors were moved over the moderate risk area, meaning 30-sec imagery was available. (Above) is a side-by-side comparison of GOES-16 0.5 km visible 30-sec imagery and 1-min imagery. The scene is of rapidly developing convection among mature storms. Overshooting tops and above-anvil cirrus plumes are apparent, indicators of strong-to-severe convection.  When compared side-by-side, the 30-sec imagery does indeed have a slightly smoother appearance..."




GOES-16 Experimental Imagery. These visible images are from yesterday at 1:30 PM EDT, courtesy of College of DuPage. Required disclaimer: "This is our experimental GOES-16 data viewer. This page, it's features and contents are currently in a phase of rapid and active development. Nothing you see here is final, and is certainly open to suggestion from our users as we move forward. The data from GOES-16 is in a provisional state and we are doing our best to keep pace with it as it comes in. Because of this, there may be periods of time where this page experiences errors or downtime that may last an unknown amount of time. Our intent is to provide the data in a usable fashion as quickly as possible and keep it running as smoothly as we can. We thank you for your support and patience during this process. Enjoy this wonderful new data!"


Rocky Mountain Snow - Tornado Risk Mid South. A tale of two seasons on today's weather map with storm #1 pushing a squall line of severe T-storms towards Memphis and Nashville, a few rotating mesocyclones capable of spawning large, violent, long-track tornadoes. Meanwhile storm #2 pushes snow across the Rockies. At the rate we're going some ski resorts will have runs open into July. 12 KM NAM Future Radar: NOAA and Tropicaltidbits.com.



Shovel-Worthy Snow Storm Brewing for New England. The pattern is not being kind to New England, where spring is still more theory than reality. Models continue to push heavy, wet snow across northern  Michigan and Ontario into New England by Friday with some one foot plus amounts possible Albany and Worcester to Manchester and Burlington. Boston may see a plowable 3"+ accumulation of cement-like slush, but New York City should be spared.


The Cusp of Spring. No heat spikes on the horizon in the Twin Cities, but temperatures are forecast to trend a few degrees above average for the next 15+ days; highs mainly in the 50s with a shot at 60F by the second weekend of April. Considering we could still be knee-deep in snow I'm not complaining. Twin Cities ECMWF numbers: WeatherBell.


6 Life-Threatening Tornado Myths Debunked. Here's an excerpt from MSN.com: "...Another myth that could prove deadly is that seeking shelter under an overpass is safe. Experts warn that an overpass is not a safe shelter if a tornado is approaching. "Winds will actually funnel under the bridge and accelerate, which can cause the car to be pulled out," Warren said. Debris is another concern as the tornado can slam cars and other objects underneath bridges. If you happen to be caught on the highway and cannot get out of the path of a tornado, Warren said, seeking shelter in a ditch or remaining in your car is safer than being under an overpass..."


Another Tornado Record's In Sight as Thunderstorms Boom. The most active tornado season in 5-6 years? Probably. Here's an excerpt from The Washington Post: "...The atmospheric moisture across the southern U.S. in January was more typical of April, Marsh said. A confirmed tornado touched down in central Massachusetts in February, a first, while there was still snow on the ground. The peak of tornado season varies across the country. Activity is concentrated in the Southeast early in the year, drifting into the Great Plains’ “Tornado Alley” in May and June before heading into the Northeast by early summer. The U.S. has more tornadoes than any other country, according to a report by Lloyd’s of London. The nation averages about 1,200 tornadoes a year, with the storms killing as many as 60 people and injuring 1,500, Lloyd’s said. Tornado “outbreaks,” or storm systems that spin out multiple funnels in a limited time and area, are becoming more frequent in the U.S., according to study published in the journal Science in December. Still, the trend isn’t consistent from what some models predicted would result from global warming, the study found..."




Forecasts For This Past Winter Were Mostly Awful. Blame the Fickle Pacific Ocean. We were supposed to slide into a La Nina cooling phase, but in recent months the pattern has resembled a severe El Nino pattern with wave after wave of Pacific moisture slamming the west coast. Here's an excerpt of an explainer from Jason Samenow at Capital Weather Gang: "Predicting the weather for winter many weeks before it begins is hard. If any season proved there is a long ways to go in perfecting such long-term outlooks, this winter was it. I am not aware of any outlet in the government, media or private sector which nailed the 2016-17 winter outlook. In fact, some forecasts predicted the opposite of what happened. The National Weather Service and The Weather Company probably had the best outlooks of those I reviewed although they were far from perfect. Across all of the various outlooks, the forecast errors were linked to a Pacific Ocean that did not behave as expected. Storms traveling across it were supposed to mostly pass to California’s north. Instead, time and time again they hit the Golden State head-on, unloading historic amounts of rain and snow, while flooding much of the rest of the nation with abnormally warm air..."

Photo credit: "Chairlift buried in snow, Feb. 22, 2017 at Squaw Valley Alpine Meadows, Calif." (Squaw Valley Alpine Meadows Resort)


A Century-Old Arctic Shipwreck Could Help us Predict Extreme Weather. FiveThirtyEight has a fascinating tale: "...Today, the Jeannette’s recovered logbooks tell incredible stories about life, death, Arctic temperatures, fear and boredom. The records, which originally existed only in federal archives, are now available to anyone who wants to read them on a website called Old Weather. Old Weather is a gathering place for more than 4,500 citizen-sleuths who are helping climate scientists map our planet’s ancient weather patterns, for free, one logbook at a time. These volunteers read and transcribe notes from sailors, hoping to map the mostly unknown history of our planet’s weather patterns. According to Kevin Wood, an Old Weather co-founder, examining the past in this way is key to understanding the earth’s future..."

More Than Any Other Industry, Science Makes America Great. I couldn't agree more. Here's the intro of a must-read story at GOOD: "There is perhaps no community that deserves more credit for “making America great” than our scientists, whose innovations have contributed trillions of dollars to the U.S. economy, launched the world’s most advanced military force, and saved millions of lives. In case you need it, here’s a refresher on the greatest hits: Benjamin Franklin deepened our understanding of electricity; Thomas Jefferson’s weapons technology helped us win the Revolutionary War; then there was Eli Whitney’s cotton gin; Robert Fulton’s steamboat; Thomas Edison’s light bulb, phonograph, and literally a thousand other patents; the Wright Brothers’ airplane; Henry Ford’s Model T; and—for better or worse—the massive team of scientists on the Manhattan Project team, responsible for the atom bomb and nuclear energy. Oh, yeah, and we landed on the moon. Skip ahead to the internet, which was developed largely by American scientists and engineers in collaboration with the Department of Defense..."

Photo credit: "There's a reason we put a scientist on our $100 bill."


More U.S. States Embracing Batteries to Store Renewable Power. Energy storage is the "missing link" in clean, renewable power, making sure there is a sufficient supply of electricity when the sun doesn't shine or the wind doesn't blow, an electronic shock-absorber of sorts. Here's an excerpt from Bloomberg: "...Rapidly falling battery prices along with increasing support from regulators has spurred the growth. There are 140 policies and regulations pending nationwide for utility-scale energy storage systems, according to GTM Research. Oregon, Massachusetts and New York City have followed in the footsteps of California by mandating deployments of batteries, and Utah’s legislature last year passed a bill that lets utilities invest in storage projects. “The plummeting costs of actual battery systems is opening up a lot of opportunities to take a hard look at the technology,” Daniel Finn-Foley, an analyst at GTM, said in an interview. “We see a lot of interest from utilities looking to deploy pilot projects...”

File photo: Greentech Media.


Minnesota Should Not Be Affected by Trump's Rescinding Clean Power Plan. Star Tribune reports: "President Donald Trump’s efforts to roll back clean power standards will probably have a minimal effect on Minnesota, since state policy — combined with changing energy economics — has already been leading utilities away from coal. As expected, Trump on Tuesday signed an executive order aimed at rescinding former President Barack Obama’s climate-change initiatives, including the Clean Power Plan. But many utilities in Minnesota are already on a clean-power path. “They are going to make the [carbon] reduction that would be required under the Clean Power Plan anyway,” said Will Seuffert, executive director of the Minnesota Environmental Quality Board, which coordinates environmental policy across state agencies..."

Photo credit: "Xcel Energy has switched on 160 megawatts of solar power in the past few months, including a massive project in Chisago County." Source: Aaron Lavinsky, Star Tribune.



3 Reasons Impact Investors Aren't Sweating Trump's Climate Policies. Check out an interview at NextBillion at the University of Michigan: "...No question, we’re in unprecedented and unpredictable territory with our new administration,” Pfund said in an interview recorded at The Economist’s “Impact Investing: Mainstreaming Purpose-Driven Finance” event last month. “However – and I’m not alone in saying this – what happens in Washington is not going to stop this trend toward innovation and sustainability. And that’s because the costs are in our favor.” The global cost of solar, wind and batteries is on a dramatic downward trajectory, she said, which has transformed them from an expensive, alternative solution to a “mainstream, cost-competitive approach to developing your grid.” And as the market has taken the reins from the government, the fate of sustainable energy solutions has moved largely beyond Trump’s reach. “This really doesn’t have to do with politics. It has to do with what’s cheap, what’s high-performing, and what fits into the grid of the future...”


California is Shattering Solar Records. This Bill Could Take Renewable Energy to the Next Level. The Desert Sun reports: "A month ago, California broke its all-time solar record, with nearly 8,800 megawatts of solar power flooding the state's main electric grid on a Friday afternoon. The record stood until the following Wednesday, when more than 9,000 megawatts of solar powered the Golden State, according to the California Independent System Operator, which runs the grid. That record didn't even last 24 hours. With the costs of solar continuing to fall, and wind still one of the cheapest sources of new electricity around, California should have no problem hitting its 50 percent clean energy target by 2030..."

File photo: Zuma Press.


Clean Energy Employs More People Than Fossil Fuels in Nearly Every U.S. State. Here's a clip from ThinkProgress: "Nationally, clean energy jobs outnumber fossil fuel jobs by more than 2.5 to 1, according to a new Sierra Club analysis of Department of Energy jobs data. And when it comes to coal and gas — two sectors President Donald Trump has promised to bolster through his upcoming executive order on energy regulation — clean energy jobs outnumber jobs dealing with those two fossil fuels by 5 to 1. “Right now, clean energy jobs already overwhelm dirty fuels in nearly every state across America, and that growth is only going to continue as clean energy keeps getting more affordable and accessible by the day,” Sierra Club executive director Michael Brune said in a statement..."

Photo credit: AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin.


Why Utilities Don't Think Trump Will Stop the Clean Energy Transition. Here's an excerpt from Utility Dive: "...That attitude is shared not just by market observers, but by electric utilities themselves. According to Utility Dive’s fourth annual State of the Electric Utility Survey, the sector plans to keep moving steadily toward a cleaner, more distributed energy future — no matter what happens with the Clean Power Plan. Early in 2017, Utility Dive surveyed more than 600 electric utility professionals across the United States. The results indicate that utilities expect to source more power from renewables, distributed resources and natural gas in the coming years, while coal continues to decline..."


Donald Trump and the Myth of the Coal Revival. Coal is coming back! And in other news check out my new bell bottoms and 8 track tape player. It's like - so cool! Here's an excerpt from The New Yorker: "...Indeed, economists have projected that the cost of implementing the C.P.P. would be recovered in public-health benefits alone, since it would reduce soot-and-smog-forming emissions. This is especially true for communities downwind of coal plants, which have been suffering for decades. According to the E.P.A.’s own estimates, the C.P.P. would help prevent as many as thirty-six hundred premature deaths, seventeen hundred heart attacks, ninety thousand asthma attacks among children, and three hundred thousand missed workdays and school days every year. A study published in January in Environmental Science & Technology suggests that low-income communities will bear the brunt of Trump’s changes. But one of the co-authors, Noelle Selin, told me that no one will be completely immune. “All of us will see air-quality decline,” she said. “Particularly in the northeast U.S...”


Ad Trust Rises as News Trust Sinks. I really hate my spam. A significant percentage of consumers believe advertisements are now more credible and believable than news? I have some spam I'd like them to examine for me. Here's an excerpt from Axios: "A new survey finds that 61% of people trust the advertising they see, an 11% jump from March 2014, according to eMarketer. In addition, 72% of respondents also said the ads are "honest," a 16% increase over the past two years. Other studies have indicated that ad trustworthiness depends on the medium. Some studies show people are less likely to trust digital ads vs. traditional print or television ads. Why it matters: The most recent Gallup poll on trust in media shows that 68% of Americans don't trust the news - the lowest rate ever measured..."


A Publisher's Survival Guide for the Platform Era. If you're in the new or legacy media business check out this post at Medium: "Earlier today I gave the opening keynote at the Digiday Publishing Summit in Vail, Colorado. We all know that we’re in the midst of an ever-changing media environment where threats to our business models are everywhere. The bad news for the industry is that Google and Facebook are a glaring duopoly, digital ad revenue models are under attack and other revenue streams haven’t materialized at scale. Believe it or not, there’s hope on the horizon. The digital revolution is really just getting started. Think about this — the transition to digital advertising, with 65% of total spend spend on traditional media, has a long way to go. While Google and Facebook may have won Round 1, the real fight is coming up, as $250 billion in brand advertising locked up in TV and print floods into digital across the coming years. Publishers were built for brand advertising, with great content, beautiful environments and strong trusted brands..."


The Squid & the Whale. Here's an interesting take on the evolving competition between uber-platforms Netflix and Amazon at 500ish Words: "..As crazy as it may sound right now, I believe the only company with a real shot at disrupting the change Netflix has wrought on Hollywood is… Amazon. These are the two most interesting companies thinking about content in the right way for the 21st century. Apple, Google, Hulu, and the like are all starting to come around. But these are the key players here, right now. The squid and the whale…A third would be Tesla. But seeing as I don’t own a Tesla, I do not interact with the brand on a daily basis. I am interested in a Model 3, as is seemingly everyone. But I’m still not sure it will tempt me to buy my first new car in well over a decade… Anyway, I’m more interested in Tesla the power company, versus Tesla the car company. And I think they’re just now inching into that world..."



"My Phone is My TV!" Check out this story at TVNewsCheck.com: "...As one might expect, popularity of viewing on digital devices is even higher among millennials. When asked to evaluate the statement “My phone is my TV,” a whopping 40% agreed. That’s in contrast to the average of 27% from all smartphone users. Today’s consumers are shifting from “best screen available” to “best experience available.” It follows, says Magid, that stations need to consider complimentary extension offerings as well as stand-alone digital products. Magid reiterated that only 30% of consumers who plan to discontinue their cable or satellite TV service consider cost as the chief reason for doing so. Other reasons included control, convenience, customization and other features that align with SVOD services..."


At BlackRock, Machines Are Rising Over Managers to Pick Stocks. Think automation, robotics and AI is only a threat to blue collar factory jobs? Think again. The New York Times has the story.


Why You Should Be Walking 7 Miles a Day - At Least. Does driving 7 miles a day count? Here's a snippet from Esquire: "...But walking any amount lessened the risk, putting the mail carriers at an advantage. Mail carriers who walked more than three hours a day had no heightened risk for heart disease at all—their BMIs, metabolisms, cholesterol levels, and blood sugar levels were normal. So, according to this (small, limited) study, 15,000 steps keeps people healthy. For those curious, 15,000 steps is equivalent to about seven miles of walking. Easy. People can get 15,000 steps a day "by walking briskly for two hours at about a four-mile-per-hour pace," lead researcher Dr. William Tigbe told The Times. (An average walking pace is three miles per hour.) Another totally realistic suggestion was "a 30-minute walk before work, another at lunch, and multiple 10-minute bouts throughout the day..."


Frogpocalypse Now. What is the deal with cane toads in south Florida? Feeling better about Minnesota's mosquitoes after reading a story at Outside Online: "...Cane toads have these things going for them: they are bigger than other toads (the biggest cane toad on record weighed 5 pounds 13 ounces, almost as much as a Kalashnikov rifle); they lay huge numbers of eggs, perhaps 30,000 in a breeding season (the southern toad, a species they appear to be displacing in Florida, lays about 4,000); and they are highly poisonous (their venom, carried in glands in their shoulders, kills animals, and could kill a person, though so far no Floridian is known to have been poisoned by it). On top of all that, they can eat almost anything. All amphibians are carnivorous, but cane toads stretch the description. Besides insects, they vacuum up snakes, worms, grubs, snails, mice, small rats, bats, young birds, other amphibians (sometimes their own young), pet food, and garbage. They differ from most other frog species in that they can identify food that is not moving..."

Image credit: Simón Prades.


Spiders Could Theoretically Eat Every Human on Earth in One Year. Have a nice day! God how I hate spiders. Here's a vaguely terrifying clip from The Washington Post: "....The world's spiders consume somewhere between 400 million and 800 million tons of prey in any given year. That means that spiders eat at least as much meat as all 7 billion humans on the planet combined, who the authors note consume about 400 million tons of meat and fish each year. Or, for a slightly more disturbing comparison: The total biomass of all adult humans on Earth is estimated to be 287 million tons. Even if you tack on another 70 million-ish tons to account for the weight of kids, it's still not equal to the total amount of food eaten by spiders in a given year, exceeding the total weight of humanity..."


The Oldest Living Things on Earth? Atlas Obscura has a fascinating list; here is one entry located here in the USA: "...Named, obviously, after the Biblical figure that lived for 969 years, the Methuselah Tree grows in the Methuselah Grove, which is in Inyo National Forest's "Forest of Ancients," where it is surrounded by other ancient trees. The exact location of the tree, though, is kept secret to protect it against vandalism. When Edmund Schulman annd Tom Harlan took samples from the famous tree in 1957, the discovered it was 4,789 years old. It is estimated that the tree germinated in 2832 BCE, making Methusela one of the oldest know living trees and non-clonal organism in the entire world. A germination date of 2832 BCE makes Methuselah older even than the Egyptian Pyramids..."


51 F. Twin Cities high yesterday.

48 F. average high on March 29.

64 F. maximum temperature on March 29, 2016.

March 30, 1938: Springtime flooding hits Warroad and Grand Marais



TODAY: Damp AM, clearing PM. Winds: NE 10-15. High: 49

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy and chilly. Low: 34

FRIDAY: Mix of clouds and sun. Winds: NE 7-12. High: 53

SATURDAY: Peeks of sun, drier day of weekend. Winds: W 5-10. Wake-up: 37. High: 56

SUNDAY: Early sun, few PM instability showers. Winds: S 7-12. Wake-up: 41. High: 55

MONDAY: Partly sunny and dry for Twins Home Opener. Winds: SE 7-12. Wake-up: 40. High: 56

TUESDAY: Blue sky lingers, promising. Winds: E 8-13. Wake-up: 41. High: 57

WEDNESDAY: More showers arrive, cool and damp. Winds: E 10-15. Wake-up: 40. High: 54


Climate Stories...

Half in US Are Now Concerned Global Warming Believers. The headline makes it sound like a religion - which it is most definitely not. I believe in God; I acknowledge the data, the evidence, the trends which all point to a gradual man-made warming of the atmosphere, cryosphere (poles) and oceans. Science is never settled, we continue to test the theories, and multiple strands of evidence all point in the same direction. Here's an excerpt from Gallup: "With a record number of Americans sounding the alarm on global warming, the share of the U.S. population that Gallup categorizes as "Concerned Believers" on climate change has consequently reached a new high of 50%. This is up slightly from 47% in 2016 but is well above the 37% recorded only two years ago. While the half of Americans classified as Concerned Believers take global warming very seriously, the other half are split between what Gallup calls "Cool Skeptics" and the "Mixed Middle." The percentages of Americans falling into these last two groups have declined in recent years as the ranks of Concerned Believers have swelled..."


Climate Executive Order Leaves Communities More Vulnerable to Disasters. Here's an excerpt from Vox: "...Trump’s move to pull back the federal government’s consideration of climate change in planning may prove to be a shot in the foot. “Given the president’s focus on building infrastructure and his desire to cut federal spending, many analysts said it would make sense for him to maintain or even expand programs to reduce the cost of disasters,” Bloomberg’s Christopher Flavelle writes. Why spend money on developments that may get washed away in a future flood? Extreme weather events are expected to become more frequent and unpredictable in the future, and increase in severity. And the cost of climate-related disasters — like hurricanes, floods, and tornadoes — is higher than ever. What’s more, as the country grows wealthier, disasters are going become even costlier..." (Image credit: NOAA).


Energy Plan Rollback: More Illnesses, Disasters Possible, Experts Say. USA TODAY reports: "...Burning fossil fuels such as coal, oil and gas has caused global temperatures to rise to levels over the past several decades that scientists say cannot be explained by natural cycles. Though the plan was primarily aimed at reducing carbon dioxide and methane emissions — which are invisible and odorless and don't necessarily harm human health directly— it also served to reduce the more traditional air pollution that's associated with burning coal. "Anyone who values wildlife, clean air and clean water will be hurt by this plan to let dirty companies pollute our climate and exploit our beautiful public lands,” said Kierán Suckling, executive director of the Center for Biological Diversity. Trump's order attempts to roll back Obama-era policies on power plant emissions limits, coal mining on federal lands and regulations on fracking and methane..."



Does the New Environmental Executive Order Threaten National Security? TheHill has additional perspective: "In March 2013, four-star Admiral Samuel Locklear III sat down with a Boston Globe reporter in a Cambridge hotel. As head of the Pacific Command, Admiral Locklear commanded the 400,000 troops stationed in the Pacific Command, stretching from California to India to Korea. The admiral had to worry about North Korea’s nuclear capabilities, tensions between China and Japan over the South and East China Seas and typhoons in the Pacific. But when reporter Bryan Bender asked him what was the biggest long-term security threat in the Pacific region Admiral Locklear gave a two-word answer: “climate change.” He explained, “If it goes bad, you could have hundreds of thousands or millions of people displaced and then security will start to crumble pretty quickly...”


China Poised for Leadership on Climate Change After U.S. Reversal. If we're not careful America will miss out on an (inevitable) clean energy revolution. Turns out there are far fewer professional climate skeptics in China, according to a story at National Geographic: "...While Trump's order casts uncertainty over U.S. efforts to rein in emissions, China, the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, has not paused in its drive to ramp up renewable energy and curb its use of coal. It just halted the construction of 103 new coal-fired power plants, and its energy agency at the start of the year announced plans to pour more than $360 billion into renewable energy by the end of the decade. As part of the Paris agreement, China aims to peak its carbon emissions and get a fifth of its energy from non-fossil sources by 2030. Some reports suggest it is already ahead of schedule on the former..."

Photo credit: "Workers install solar panels on a rooftop in Wuhan, China, in a country where renewable energy is booming." Photograph by Giulia Marchi, The New York Times, Redux.


A Faith-Based Program to Care for Earth. Here's an excerpt of a book review from the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: "...Their book is thick with supporting data on the warmest years on record but the tone and cadence, if not the content, can sound downright Trumpian. Take this passage from Mr. Douglas: “Wet areas are getting wetter, dry areas are trending drier. You’ve heard the expression ‘weather on steroids’? We’re turbocharging the storms that would have formed anyway — loading the dice in favor of more extreme weather events.” Weather is local. Climate change is global. While there’s no silver bullet to stem it, this book makes a case for “silver buckshot — hundreds of new technologies and viable, cost-competitive clean-energy alternatives, which will gradually, methodically wean us off fossil fuels, employ more Americans, and jump-start a sputtering, rudderless economy.” That’s not the message from the White House or from legions of Trump supporters in coal country, but other conservatives are pushing for a revenue-neutral carbon tax..."


Climate Change Skeptic Group Seeks to Influence 200,000 Teachers. Here's an excerpt from PBS Frontline: "Twenty-five thousand science teachers opened their mailboxes this month and found a package from the Heartland Institute, a libertarian think tank that rejects the scientific consensus on climate change. It contained the organization’s book “Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming,” as well as a DVD rejecting the human role in climate change and arguing instead that rising temperatures have been caused primarily by natural phenomena. The material will be sent to an additional 25,000 teachers every two weeks until every public-school science teacher in the nation has a copy, Heartland president and CEO Joseph Bast said in an interview last week. If so, the campaign would reach more than 200,000 K-12 science teachers..."

Image credit: "The Heartland Institute says it will send the book "Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming" to every public school science teacher in the nation." (Brenna Verre, FRONTLINE)


Mental Health and our Changing Climate: Impacts, Implications and Guidance. Sign up for a webinar at Climate for Health: "Mental Health and Our Changing Climate: Impacts, Implications, and Guidance chronicles the impacts of climate change on Americans' health and psychological well-being, including increases in stress and anxiety, loss of community identity, heightened aggression and violence, and many others. It builds from our 2014 Beyond Storms and Droughts research, and is intended to further inform and empower health and medical professionals, community and elected leaders, and the public. The report discusses the pathways through which these and other impacts on human well-being will arise, why some communities will be hit harder than others, and how psychological impacts interact with physical health..."


"We are in a Race Against Time": Louisiana Governor Urges $50 Billion Coastal Plan. Here's an excerpt from NOLA.com: "...This is a plan for all of Louisiana, not just one agency and not just for the coast," Edwards said. "Implementing this plan will reduce risk and build and sustain land for the benefit of all of our people, our economy and our ecosystem for generations to come. "We are in a race against time to save our coast, and it is time we make bold decisions now. I look forward to discussing these plans with the Legislature." The 2017 rewrite of the plan promises to reduce hurricane storm surge damage by $8.3 billion each year through 2067, and to create 800 more square miles of coastal wetlands and dry lands than if the plan is not implemented..."


When Is It Time to Retreat from Climate Change? America already has its first climate refugees, due to rising seas, land subsidence and coastal beach erosion in Alaska and Louisiana. This is a question that will be asked with greater frequency and urgency in the years to come. Here's an excerpt at The New Yorker: "...In a paper published today in the journal Nature Climate Change, a trio of Stanford researchers examined twenty-seven recent cases of managed retreat affecting twenty-two countries and 1.3 million people. They found that, regardless of a country’s wealth and level of development, relocations are most likely to happen when a government and its citizens are in accord. In the early two-thousands, for instance, the Dutch farming community of De Noordwaard was “de-poldered”; its seventy-five households were moved, its protective dikes were lowered, and its land was allowed to flood. Residents who initially opposed the retreat came around after repeated inundations, and the government’s initiative helped not only them but also many thousands of others downstream. Likewise, after the Australian state of Queensland suffered a series of catastrophic floods in late 2010 and early 2011, more than two hundred and fifty people in the Lockyer Valley chose to leave, first with local government support and later with assistance from the state and national governments..."

Photo credit: "An aerial view of Isle de Jean Charles, in southern Louisiana." Photograph by William Widmer, REDUX. 


Trump Moves Decisively to Wipe Out Obama's Climate Change Record. Here's a snippet from The Washington Post: "President Trump will take the most significant step yet in obliterating his predecessor’s environmental record Tuesday, instructing federal regulators to rewrite key rules curbing U.S. carbon emissions. The sweeping executive order also seeks to lift a moratorium on federal coal leasing and remove the requirement that federal officials consider the impact of climate change when making decisions. The order sends an unmistakable signal that just as President Barack Obama sought to weave climate considerations into every aspect of the federal government, Trump is hoping to rip that approach out by its roots. “This policy is in keeping with President Trump’s desire to make the United States energy independent,” said a senior administration official who briefed reporters on the directive Monday evening and asked for anonymity to speak in advance of the announcement..."


Exxon Urges Trump to Keep U.S. in Paris Climate Accord. Here's an excerpt at Financial Times: "ExxonMobil, the largest American oil group, has written to the Trump administration urging it to keep the US in the Paris climate accord agreed at the end of 2015. In a letter to President Donald Trump’s special assistant for international energy and the environment, Exxon argues that the Paris accord is “an effective framework for addressing the risks of climate change”. The letter was sent last week, but has emerged as Mr Trump is preparing to announce executive orders beginning a rollback several of Barack Obama’s climate policies, while leaving the question of Paris open. Trump administration officials have said a decision on participation in Paris is still “under discussion”, and have been soliciting views from US energy companies..."


Northwest Governors Vow to Resist Plans to Gut Climate Change Rules. Northwest Public Radio has more information: "The Trump Administration is expected to announce plans to reverse drafts of Obama-era climate change policies this week. Governors and mayors along the West Coast have stated their opposition to the move. Oregon Governor Kate Brown and Washington Governor Jay Inslee declared Saturday their intention to forge ahead with regional climate change efforts. Speaking at the Washington State Department of Commerce in Seattle, Inslee and Brown said they wouldn’t allow the White House to derail climate change policies and programs the region has put in place. Inslee said he assured a United Nations climate conference in New York Thursday that the West Coast states would not reverse course. "The West Coast is going to move forward to beat climate change," Inslee said..."

Image credit: "Oregon Governor Kate Brown and Washington Governor Jay Inslee said they plan to "fight back" against President Trump's environmental rollbacks." KING5 TV, Seattle.


A Building Boom and Climate Change Create an Even Hotter, Drier Phoenix. The Los Angeles Times reports: "This sprawling metropolis morphed in a matter of decades from a scorching desert outpost into one of the largest cities in the nation. Today, Phoenix is a horizon of asphalt, air conditioning and historic indifference to the pitfalls of putting 1.5 million people in a place that gets just 8 inches of rain a year and where the temperature routinely exceeds 100 degrees. Now, however, the city faces a reckoning. It is called climate change, and it is expected to further expose the glaring gap between how the city lives and what it can sustain. The future, scientists say, will be even hotter and drier, the monsoons more mercurial. Summertime highs could reach 130 degrees before the end of the century — think Death Valley, but with subdivisions..." (File photo: Greater Phoenix Chamber of Commerce).


Finding Common Ground on Climate Issues. Here's an excerpt of an Op-Ed at newsminer.com in Fairbanks, Alaska: "...An independent study of this type of revenue-neutral fee and dividend found that it would significantly reduce harmful carbon emissions while creating millions of jobs and preventing thousands of premature deaths by improving local air quality. Every American would get an equal share of revenues from the carbon fee, and a large majority of Americans would actually come out ahead, with dividends larger than increased fees. It would be hard to find a more effective, efficient and fair way to start mitigating climate pollution at the national level. The political situation has made it hard for Republicans to speak up on climate change. But climate change has not always been a partisan issue, and there’s no reason it should be. Responsible use and protection of natural resources is important to many conservatives. And it would be foolish to think only Democrats want a healthy environment for their children and grandchildren..." (File photo: Media Matters).


CO2 Spike. NASA has more details on carbon dioxide measurement and trends.