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Thundery Tuesday - Cooling Off and Less Humid Next Weekend

High Puddle Index Today - Weekend Cooling Trend

I met an old meteorology buddy in Chicago last weekend, now teaching after being laid off from a major airline. "I still love the weather but is it a good business?" he asked.

Great question.

We are drowning in weather. Apps, TV, radio, print, social media, thousands of web sites with weather-on-demand. How can you create enough value to carve out a sustainable business model?

Every business is being disrupted by the Internet, automation, computerization, globalization and even AI - and meteorology is no exception. Computers have outsourced people, in many cases. And nobody wants to be in a commodity business, with hundreds or thousands of competitors, all selling the same product.

We've been hypnotized by technology; the real art is a (consistently) accurate forecast that keeps people safer, and companies more profitable.

Today is the wettest day of the week as a front pushes east. Skies clear tomorrow, leaving us with a stunning Thursday. T-storms late Friday mark the leading edge of cooler, Canadian air next weekend; 60-degree highs possible early next week.

This free A/C gives way to another surge of summer-like 80s by the latter half of next week. 


A Plan B Tuesday. The risk of showers and T-storms is high today, probably the wettest day of the week. A few hours of showers and (heavy) T-storms are likely; 4 KM NAM guidance prints out the heaviest amounts north and east of the MSP metro, where some 2-3" amounts are predicted. The 00z 12 KM NAM guidance shows 46" of rain for the metro, but as is usually the case with convective fronts rainfall amounts will be all over the map. Rainfall guidance: NOAA and AerisWeather.


Canadian Aftertaste. Some are already complaining about the heat and humidity, and if you don't like the muggies you'll be breathing a lot easier by next weekend with highs in the 70s and a noticeable dip in dew point. Friday looks like the warmest day this week with some low 80s nearby. ECMWF guidance: WeatherBell.

Warming Up By Mid-June. After a relatively cool and comfortable start to June long-range GFS guidance shows the core of the jet lifting north, allowing warmer, stickier air to expand northward. A few 80s by mid-June? Likely, but I don't see any extended stretches of 90s, not yet.

6 Dead in Texas Floods, And More Rain is Coming. Here's an update on the incessant rains afflicting much of Texas from the New York Times: "..Since Wednesday, the thunderstorms have dropped pockets of intensely heavy rain, or “rain bombs,” as meteorologists call them. These have circulated through East Texas, Dallas and Corpus Christi, along with Austin and San Antonio, hitting some parts harder than others, said Kurt Van Speybroeck, a National Weather Service meteorologist. As a result, rainfall has ranged from four inches in parts of the Dallas-Fort Worth area to 30 inches in Washington County, the authorities said..."

Photo credit above: "The three men in the foreground had to abandon their truck Friday after getting caught in rising flood waters in Magnolia, Tex." Credit Michael Ciaglo/Houston Chronicle, via Associated Press.



Tornado Town USA. What is it about large, violent tornadoes and the Oklahoma City suburb of Moore? FiveThirtyEight takes a hard look - here's a snippet: "...Nobody knows how likely it is that a given town would be hit by four violent tornadoes in 16 years; if we knew that, then we’d also know whether Moore really is especially tornado prone, or just suffering a streak of bad luck. But we do know big tornadoes, themselves, are rare. Devastating EF4s made up 1.37 percent of all the tornadoes that hit the U.S. from 1994 to 2012.2 Just 0.14 percent were incredible EF5s. And that’s enough to make Moore’s recent history turn heads..."


Tornado Sirens, An Old Technology, Still Playing a Vital Role. Remember that sirens were created for outdoor alerting - just don't rely on them when you're in the house, office or shop. Here's a clip from a New York Times article: "...For out-of-the-way places, such as golf courses, lakes and hiking trails, where cellphone service might be spotty or nonexistent, sirens are an “important redundancy” to alert the public, said Bill Bunting, the chief of forecast operations at the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla. Mr. Shelts said social media can be ineffective in delivering warnings because there is no true management or vetting of what gets posted. Incomplete, inaccurate or outdated information could be shared..."

Photo credit: "Most sirens emit sounds between 400 and 600 hertz, which researchers have found is the best range to get people’s attention." Credit Rogelio V. Solis/Associated Press.


Serious Hail. My father, who speaks fluent German, sent me a link from tagesschau.de from a town near Frankfurt, Germany, which was buried under enough hail over the weekend to bring out the plows.


Deadly Flooding in Southern Germany. The Houston, Texas area isn't the only spot seeing repeated, torrential rains. Deutsche Welle has details on recent flash flooding.


Abrupt Atlantic Ocean Changes May Have Been Natural. Here's an excerpt from Climate Central: "...Climate change may not have been to blame for an abrupt recent slowdown of a sweeping Atlantic Ocean current, a change that delivered an intense pulse of ocean warming and sea level rise through the Gulf of Maine and elsewhere along the East Coast. Modeling-based analysis by British scientists, published Monday in Nature Geoscience, concluded that the decline in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) from 2004 to 2014 was “part of decadal variability of the North Atlantic,” representing a recovery following a previous strengthening of its currents. Still, leading scientists warn that greenhouse gas pollution appears to be causing the circulation pattern to slow down, and that it will continue to do so with far-reaching implications for weather and for flood-prone cities and farms around the world..."

Photo credit above: "Atlantic Ocean currents influence the weather and sea levels." Credit: John Spade/Flickr


Can FEMA's Flood Insurace Program Afford Another Disaster? Blame Sandy and Katrina, and a litany of other flood-related disasters in recent years. 90% of all disasters in this country involve flooding. The hourlong documentary was extraordinary on PBS; here's an excerpt of a companion article from Frontline: "Floods cause more damage each year in the United States than any other kind of natural disaster — so much more, in fact, that most private insurance companies stopped offering flood insurance decades ago. In 1968, the federal government stepped in, creating the National Flood Insurance Program. The program is run today by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Over the last 11 years, the program has fallen billions in debt; a 2015 report from the Government Accountability Office said it was unlikely to be able to repay the money it has borrowed from taxpayers. Worse yet, the program has been accused of waste, poor oversight and fraud..."


Emotions Seem To Be Detectable in Air. The Atlantic recently ran a fascinating story; here's an excerpt: "...In Hunger Games: Catching Fire, for example, during the “suspense” scenes—when Jennifer Lawrence was in particular danger—the carbon dioxide, acetone, and isoprene levels in the theater air predictably increased. The researchers speculate that this may have something to do with breath-holding, or stress hormone production—but it is all speculation. The important point was that the signals occurred at exactly the same time in all four screenings of the film. They also found the reproducible changes in the air chemistry during “humor” scenes in other films..."


Why You Will Marry The Wrong Person. Here's an excerpt of a little day-brightener from The New York Times: "...Indeed, marriage tends decisively to move us onto another, very different and more administrative plane, which perhaps unfolds in a suburban house, with a long commute and maddening children who kill the passion from which they emerged. The only ingredient in common is the partner. And that might have been the wrong ingredient to bottle. The good news is that it doesn’t matter if we find we have married the wrong person. We mustn’t abandon him or her, only the founding Romantic idea upon which the Western understanding of marriage has been based the last 250 years: that a perfect being exists who can meet all our needs and satisfy our every yearning..."


60 F. low temperature Monday morning.

84 F. high reported in the Twin Cities on Memorial Day.

73 F. average high on May 30.

May 31, 1934: Extreme heat impacts the Twin Cities, with highs of 107 in St. Paul and 106 in Minneapolis. Rush City reached 110. Numerous cases of heat ailments affect people and livestock.

May 31, 1932: A heat wave hits southern Minnesota, with highs of 108 at Campbell, Fairmont, Faribault, and New Ulm.



TODAY: Showers & T-storms likely. Winds: SW 8-13. High: 74

TUESDAY NIGHT: Evening showers, drying out late. Low: 58

WEDNESDAY: More sun, PM instability shower up north. Winds: W 10-15. High: near 70

THURSDAY: Best day in sight. Bright sun. Winds: W 8-13. Wake-up: 53. High: 73

FRIDAY: Sunny start, watch for late storms. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 59. High: 81

SATURDAY: Peeks of sun, cooler breeze. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 60. High: 74

SUNDAY: Partly sunny, PM showers north. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 57. High: 73

MONDAY: Mix of clouds and sun, cool. Winds: N 10-20. Wake-up: 56. High: 69


Climate Stories...

Meteorologists Are Seeing Global Warming's Effect on the Weather. Here's an excerpt of a recent story I wrote for The Guardian: "...A warmer atmosphere is increasing water vapor levels overhead, juicing storms, fueling an increase in flash floods in the summer, and heavier winter snows along the East Coast of the USA. “All storms are 5 to 10 percent stronger in terms of heavy rainfall” explained Dr. Kevin Trenberth, at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado. “It means what was a very rare event is now not quite so rare.” In recent decades, weather patterns have appeared to become more sluggish and erratic, worldwide. Rapid warming of the Arctic may be impacting the jet stream, the high-speed river of air that whisks weather systems around the planet. These high-altitude winds are powered by north-south temperature gradients, which are being altered by rapid warming of northern latitudes..."


This Week's Wild Weather, Brought To You By The Letter Omega. Following up on the preceeding story here's further explanation of how a variation in north-south temperature gradients may be impacting jet stream winds, worldwide, causing weather to become "stuck" with greater frequency - courtesy of WXshift: "...While blocks are a normal part of weather, there is some tentative evidence that blocking may become more common with climate change. The warming Arctic may be the key driver and is a reminder that what happens in the Arctic does not stay in the Arctic. Fundamentally, the speed of the jet stream depends on the contrast between the temperature in the tropics and the Arctic. A larger temperature difference yields a faster jet stream. If the Arctic warms more quickly than the tropics, which has been observed, that temperature difference decreases and the jet stream slows. And as it does during its annual summer retreat, the slower jet stream tends to meander, leaving behind these large swirls responsible for atmospheric blocking. At the forefront of this research is Jennifer Francis at Rutgers University. And while the strength of this relationship that she has highlighted is still the cause of much discussion in scientific circles, a new study in the Journal of Climate lends support to the idea..."


A Walk in the Dead Woods. Here's an excerpt of an Op-Ed at The New York Times: "...The dead woods are a sad symptom of a larger planetary illness. Last year, more than 10 million acres burned in the United States — a record, consuming an area larger than Maryland. Fire seasons are nearly 80 days longer than they were in the 1970s, according to the Forest Service. “We keep setting records that we don’t want to see beat,” said Vilsack. We keep setting horrid heat records as well. In April, for the seventh straight month, global temperatures posted a new average monthly high. Roads have melted in India. A city in the northwest, Phalodi, posted the warmest day in India since records were kept: 123.8 degrees on May 19..."

File photo: USGS.

Sunny Memorial Day - Thundery Downpours Overnight

Sunday Rainbows

Sunday afternoon featured a few showers and storms across the southern half of the state. Here was a picture as a rainbow developed in the wake of a heavy downpour on the NW side of the metro.

This is what the radar look like late Sunday afternoon/early evening as a few storms popped up and pushed through parts of Central MN.


 

Severe Threat Monday

 ...SUMMARY... ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG TO PERHAPS LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ...SYNOPSIS... COMPLEX SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST MONDAY. IN THE NRN STREAM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT CRESTS UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NERN STATES. IN THE SRN STREAM THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN U.S. WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY EWD ACROSS AZ...BUT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WEAKER DOWNSTREAM IMPULSES TO MOVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS. A SFC LOW WILL EVOLVE OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BY MID-DAY A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW OVER WRN SD EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH ERN MT AND EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE SFC TROUGH OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE PROGRESSIVE NRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND NEB MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH THE DRYLINE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.

Severe Threat Tuesday

 ...SUMMARY... ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. LOCALIZED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST AND NORTH FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

Simulated Radar

Here's the simulated radar from PM Sunday to Tuesday night. Note that a few lingering showers will be possible on Sunday. At this Point, Memorial Day Monday looks good for the most part, but showers and storms arrive late Monday night into Tuesday with locally heavy downpours. There may also be an isolated strong storm or two as the line moves through... stay tuned.
 
 
Rainfall Potential
 
The somewhat soggy weather will slowly push east on Sunday with a few lingering light showers across the region (mainly east). The next best chance of rain arrives late Monday night into Tuesday with some heavier downpour potential. The image below suggests rainfall tallies through midday Wednesday with some some near 1"+ tallies across MN & WI.
 

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Tropical Depression Bonnie: Radar Earlier Saturday During Tropical Storm Status

The radar loop below from PM Saturday showed bands of heavy rainfall pushing into South Carolina when Tropical Depression Bonnie was at Tropical Storm Strength.  Gusty squalls will continue to bring strong winds and heavy pockets of rain to areas along the Coast as the weekend continues. The other big concern will be a strong rip current potential.

 
Rainfall Potential
 
Here's the rainfall potential through PM Tuesday, which suggests widespread 1" to 2" amounts from the Carolinas to parts of the Northeast. Heavy rainfall could lead to flood concerns along the coast and for some inland locations.
 

IR Satellite

The IR satellite from PM Saturday when Bonnie was at Tropical Storm strength. The satellite loop showed a fairly large blob of intense clouds nearing the SE Coast. This blob of moisture brought areas of heavy rainfall, gusty winds and RIP currents along the coast through during the first part of the holiday weekend.

 
 Bonnie: Sunday Sunrise
 
This was the visible satellite view of Bonnie on Sunday. The IR satellite turns to visible satellite revealing more definition in the clouds as the center of circulation was just about to make landfall along the coast of South Carolina
 
 
Wind Circulation From Early Sunday...
 
Wind circulation from early Sunday showed a very evident cyclonic wind field surrounding Bonnie. Note here that the center of circulation was sitting just off the coast of South Carolina. 
 
 
Projected Path

Here is the projected path for Bonnie through the end of next week. Note that the forecast keeps it as a Tropical Depression as we head through the week ahead. Interestingly, the Atlantic Hurricane Season officially starts on June 1st.

 
 
 Intensity Guidance
Here's an interesting produce that suggests potential wind speeds over time. Note that a few models keep this particular storm into Tropical Storm strength over the next few days, while most models bring it back down to Tropical Depression status.
 
 
Model Paths
 
The model path for this particular storm shows a pretty evident NE track  after the system tracks into South Carolina. This system will likely pick up speed as we head into next week as it start to encounter stronger upper level winds, which may help to minimize the heavy rainfall threat as some of the moisture lifts into parts of the NE.

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Sunny Memorial Day - Thundery Downpours Overnight
By Todd Nelson

Ahh, now this is more like it! Saturday's cloudy, wet weather was for the birds; ducks, in fact. After a not too shabby Sunday, I am happy to report that today will be THE nicest day of the holiday weekend.

Reminiscent of late June, we reach the pinnacle today with bright sun and highs around 80 degrees. I guess this is what they call Chamber of Commerce weather. Even the complaint department has the day off!

Whether it's heading to the lake or mowing the neglected hay field in your back yard due to several days of inclement weather last week, today's a winner 3 weeks from the Summer Solstice (June 20th).

A fairly vigorous area of low pressure looks to spin up swarms of showers and storms late Monday with thundery downpours possible in spots through Tuesday. Cool exhaust on the backside of this storm brings us into the 60s for highs by the end of the week. Overnight lows will dip into the 40s with a few 30s possible up north. No worries though, widespread frost and freeze is not likely.

Keep calm and garden on!
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Extended Forecast

SUNDAY NIGHT: A few showers early, then turning mostly clear. Low: 58. Winds: WNW 5mph

MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY: Best day of the holiday weekend. Clouds thicken late. High: 81. Wind: SSE 5mph.

MONDAY NIGHT: Scattered showers and storms develop with locally heavy rainfall. Low: 62. Winds: SSE 5mph

TUESDAY: Scattered storms with locally heavy rain. A little muggy. High: 77. Winds: S 5-10mph.

WEDNESDAY: Breezy. Stray PM rumble. Wake-up: 58. High: 69. Winds: W 5-10mph

THURSDAY: More sun, refreshing breeze. Wake-up: 52. High: 69. Winds: WNW 5-10mph.

FRIDAY: Dry start. Scattered PM T-storms. Wake-up: 55. High: 76. Winds: SE 5mph.

SATURDAY: Lingering storm early, better later. Wake-up: 60. High: 77. Winds: SW 5mph.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Nice June Day. Wake-up: 60. High: 78.
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This Day in Weather History
May 30th

1998: A devastating line of storms hits east central Minnesota. 100 mph winds rip through Scott and Dakota County. Over 500 homes are damaged in Washington County. 15,000 trees are lost in the Twin Cities metro area, and 500,000 people lose power in Minneapolis.

1985: A tornado hits Lakefield, and the Twin Cities report 67 mph winds.
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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
May 30th

Average High: 74F (Record: 98F set in 1934)
Average Low: 53F (Record: 37F set in 1947)
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
May 30th

Sunrise: 5:31am
Sunset: 8:50pm

*Daylight Gained Since Yesterday: ~1min & 30secs
*Daylight Gain Since Winter Solstice: ~6hours & 34 mins
*Length of Daylight: ~15hours & 21mins
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Moon Phase for May 30th at Midnight
1.8 Days After Last Quarter

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Extended Forecast

Take a look at the extended forecast below, which takes us into the first full week of June. Note that temperatures 'mild' through the early part of this week, but we begin to slip by the middle/end of the week with highs dipping into the 60s. Overnight lows will be a little more refreshing by the end of the week as we fall in the 40s; a few of the normal cool spots up north could even dip into the 30s. The good news is that I don't see any major frost of freeze concerns with this cool spat... Keep calm and garden on!

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6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC, the 6 to 10 day temperature outlook suggests a return of warmer than average weather across the High Plains and parts of the Midwest from June 3rd to June 7th. So even after a little bit of a cool down mid/late week, we should be able to warm up again by next week!

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Monday Weather Outlook

Monday WILL be the nicest day of the holiday weekend with bright sun and temperatures warming to near 10F above average across the state. The good news is that dewpoints will also be pretty comfortable in the 40s and low 50s, which by Minnesota standards isn't too shabby.

Monday Weather Outlook

Winds on Monday will also be a non-factor for much of the day, however, note the increasing SE winds across South Dakota. This increase in wind speed is in advance of a storm system that will increase rain/thunder chances late PM Monday into Tuesday. Heavy rainfall and a few isolated strong storms can't be ruled out across parts of the Midwest from late PM Monday and again Tuesday.

Monday Weather Outlook

Again, Memorial Day Monday WILL be the nicest day of holiday weekend with plentiful sunshine across much of the state throughout much of the day. However, as we head into the second half of the day, high cirrus clouds look to move, which will make for filtered sunshine late across the Southwestern part of the state. Showers and storms will then move into MN & WI overnight Monday into Tuesday with heavy pockets of rain and isolated strong storm chances.

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National Weather Outlook
 
The national weather outlook through early next week shows slightly improved weather conditions on Sunday across parts of the Central U.S., but another blob of heavier moisture looks to return to the Midwest as Monday and Tuesday roll around. In fact, there is a chance of some strong to severe storms along with heavier rainfall tallies. 
 
 
Precipitation Outlook
 
According to NOAA's HPC, the rainfall potential through the end of next week suggests some of the heaviest rainfall across parts of the Central and Southern Plains. Some 2" to 4"+ tallies can't be ruled out, especially across parts of Oklahoma and Texas, where those amounts may be a little more widespread. Also note the heavier band of rain along the East Coast as our tropical system lifts NE along the coast there. Some spots in the Mid-Atlantic region could see as much as 3" to 5"+ with the potential of localized flooding.
 
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"Obama is creating a 1,500-mile “butterfly corridor” to help Monarchs get from Mexico to Minnesota"

US president Barack Obama, a friend to bees and other pollinating insects in peril, has unveiled his national strategy (pdf) to mitigate honey bee loss, increase the Monarch butterfly population, and restore the habitats of both insects, whose health is essential to our food supply. The program will depend heavily on federal agencies and will also involve Mexico and Canada, since bees and butterflies know nothing of state laws and don’t really care about borders. The strategic report includes a section on “expanding pollinator habitat on rights-of-way.” This doesn’t mean the feds will tell bees and butterflies who flies first, but rather that the US Department of Transportation and US Fish and Wildlife Service will help rehabilitate butterfly habitats alongside Interstate 35—a federal highway that extends from the Texas-Mexico border to Duluth, Minnesota.

See more from qz.com HERE:

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Five Landmarks Threatened by Climate Change
Will a warming planet destroy humankinds' most precious cultural treasures?

Hunger, disease, dwindling natural resources—climate change promises to visit all of those misfortunes and more on humankind if it can’t be curbed. But there’s something else a changing climate can take away from humans, Fiona Harvey reports for The Guardian: their cultural heritage. A new UNESCO report suggests that some of the world’s most famous heritage sites could be destroyed by climate change. The report looks at the direct and indirect impacts of the changing climate on both UNESCO World Heritage sites and the tourism sector they support, calling it “one of the most significant risks” the sites face. Since cultural treasures are usually static and unable to move, says the report, they are inextricably tied to place—and as the landscapes that surround them change, they are uniquely vulnerable. From drought and rising seas to moles, here is a selection of landmarks facing climate change threats:

Read more from the SimthsoniaMag.com HERE:

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Thanks for checking in and have a great rest of your holiday weekend! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX