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Monday Becomes the Wettest Day of 2015; Slow PM Clearing

Monday Becomes the Wettest Day of 2015 so far

As of 8AM, the Minneapolis airport was reporting 2.70" of rain so far today, making it the wettest day of 2015 so far. This is also a new daily rainfall record for today's date, the previous record was 2.32" set in 1883. Here are the top precipitation days so far this year (excluding today's data).

Significant Rain Wraps Up

Heavy rain Sunday night/early Monday morning gave way to some impressive rainfall tallies. Radar estimated rainfall along the Minnesota/Wisconsin border suggests nearly 6" to 8" of rain.

"After rain moves out this morning, it will be dry for the rest of the week with temperatures gradually returning back closer to normal by the end of the week. Hot and humid conditions return next weekend, along with the next chance for rain."

Here are some of the heaviest rainfall tallies that were reported via CoCorahs sites.


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Wrapping up the Holiday Weekend

Thanks to my good friend, Rich Koivisto, for the picture below. He snapped these pictures during the fireworks celebration in Arizona Saturday night. Great picture Rich, thanks!

Soggy Start
By Todd Nelson

With all the firework displays that were going on this weekend, Mother Nature must have felt left out and decided to make a little light show herself Sunday night. Heavy pockets of rain look to continue through early Monday across parts of the region with a slow clearing trend toward the late afternoon and evening. A stout northwesterly breeze will help to chase the muggy weather south for a couple of days before returning later this week.

Interestingly, there has only been one 90 degree days this year in Minneapolis, which occurred on June 9th at 92 degrees. The 1981-2010 average suggests that we should have seen about four 90 degree (or warmer) days by now. Keep in mind that the yearly average for 90 degree days is around ten or eleven, half of which occur during the month of July.

Temperatures will take a bit of a hit early this week, with highs running nearly 5 to 10 degrees below average through Wednesday. It will come by way of little complaints with sunshine and low humidity, however, I can't say as much for what may be lurking in the extended forecast. Temps nearing 90 and higher humidity will likely start festering the complaint department

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SUNDAY NIGHT: Storms develop (a few strong) with heavy rainfall. Low: 71. Winds: S 10-15

MONDAY: AM T-showers, slow PM clearing. High: 75. Winds: Turning NNW 10-20.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear, still breezy. Low: 56. Winds: NW 10-15

TUESDAY: Sunny, just about perfect with lower humidity. High: 74. Winds: NW 10.

WEDNESDAY: Comfortable. More PM clouds. Wake-up: 56. High: 80

THURSDAY: Warmer. Stray PM T-shower? Wake-up: 62. High: 81.

FRIDAY: Warm and sticky again. Spotty PM rumbles. Wake up: 66. High: 84.

SATURDAY: Heating up. Passing PM storm. Wake-up: 70. High: 86.

SUNDAY: Feels like summer. Wake-up: 68. High: 87.
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This Day in Weather History
July 6th

1936: A high of 104 degrees is recorded at Minneapolis.
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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
July 6th

Average High: 84F (Record: 104F set in 1936)
Average Low: 64F (Record: 49F set in 1942)
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Sunrise/Sunset Times
July 6th

Sunrise: 5:33am
Sunset: 9:01pm
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Moon Phase for July 6th at Midnight
1.6 Days Before Last Quarter


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Minneapolis Temperature Trend

Temperatures take a bit of a dip early this week post storm system. It looks like we gradually warm up to average temps by the end of the week with hot and sticky conditions returning by mid month!


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Monday Weather Outlook

Monday start on a cool and soggy note as scattered showers and storms rumble east toward the Great Lakes Region. Breezy northwest winds in the afternoon will keep highs in the northern part of the state in the 60s, while temps in the southern part of the state should drop into the 70s.

Monday Weather Outlook

The heaviest rains will be ongoing early Monday across much of the state, but as the front slides east, a slow clearing trend will take place. It appears that shower and thunderstorm activity will continue across southeastern Minnesota and Wisconsin through early/mid afternoon before things finally settle down.


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Rainfall Potential

Rainfall amounts in central Minnesota may be in the 1" to 2"+ range by midday Monday as the front slides through. Localized areas of flooding can't be ruled out if thunderstorm activity persists through Sunday night/early Monday.


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Severe Threat Sunday Night/AM Monday

Damaging winds and heavy rain look to the be the primary threat through Sunday night/early Monday as thunderstorm activity pushes through the Upper Mississippi Valley.

Severe Threat Monday

Thunderstorms and heavy rain will continue through early Monday, but redeveloping thunderstorms may become strong to severe once again from the Great Lakes to the Middle Mississippi Valley (potentially clipping far southeastern Minnesota by mid/late afternoon.


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National Weather Outlook

In the loop below you can see a cool front move across the midsection of the nation through the early week timeframe. Widespread thunderstorms activity (some strong to severe) and pockets of heavy rain will be likely as the storm system sags southeast through Tuesday.

3 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's WPC, the rainfall potential across the Upper Mississippi Valley Sunday night through early Monday could be on the order of 1" to 2"+. As the front sags south through the early week time frame, heavy rainfall amount of 2" to 4" or more may be possible over parts of the Central/Southern Plains.

5 Day Precipitation Outlook

The 5 day rainfall outlook over parts of the Central/Southern Plains suggests nearly 3" to 5" or more through the end of the week.


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Severe Threat Monday

...SUMMARY... AN EXTENSIVE BUT BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...EASTERN KANSAS...AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. OTHER SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS WILL OCCUR FROM FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ...OVERVIEW... A SERIES OF STRONG/PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ORBITING A LARGER COMPLEX OF UPPER LOWS ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA WILL ACT TO SUBSTANTIALLY DAMPEN THE BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST AND CENTRAL CONUS THIS PERIOD. THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THE LEADING IMPULSE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN/UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STRONGER UPPER FLOW AND FORCING SPREAD EAST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MODEST POST-FRONTAL SURFACE PRESSURE RISES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROMOTE A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE CORN BELT TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE SITUATED FROM WI/IA SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...COINCIDENT WITH A CORRIDOR OF STRONG TO LOCALLY EXTREME INSTABILITY. ELSEWHERE....A COMPACT AND PERSISTENT MIDLEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WILL DEAMPLIFY AND EJECT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC...AHEAD OF THE STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ...GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MAKE QUICK PROGRESS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS AROUND 30-60M PER 12H FORECAST TO SPREAD FROM MN ACROSS NORTHERN WI DURING THE DAY. MODEST TO STRONG SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION APPEARS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WEAK SURFACE WAVE OVER WI WHERE EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACCOMPANYING THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM PERSISTENCE/ORGANIZATION. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT IS THE DEGREE TO WHICH AIRMASS CAN SUPPORT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR EARLY-DAY CLOUDS/CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. PRESENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST BEST PROSPECTS FOR SEVERE STORMS...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF LINE SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...WILL EVOLVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN WI DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE CHANCE FOR WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS A TORNADO WILL PEAK IN THE 21-00 UTC TIME FRAME. SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT DECREASE MARKEDLY ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM IA SOUTHWESTWARD TO KS/NORTHERN OK. HOWEVER...LIFT ALONG THE TRAILING BOUNDARY WILL COINCIDE WITH THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM IN DESTABILIZATION ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WHERE SBCAPE IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 2000-4000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE RANGE OF 15-30KT...IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. WHILE WEAKEST SHEAR ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL EXIST FROM NORTHERN MO TO KS/OK...DCAPE VALUES IN THE HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG BY 21 UTC. SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT TRAVERSES THIS INSTABILITY AXIS BETWEEN 21-03 UTC.

Severe Threat Tuesday

...SUMMARY... WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN CORRIDOR FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS. ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES APPEAR LIKELY TO REMAIN BROADLY CYCLONIC EAST OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF CANADA...AND ADJACENT NORTHERN U.S. PLAINS THROUGH UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...DURING THIS PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME...INCLUDING ONE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY PIVOT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. IN LOWER LATITUDES...THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD CLOSED LOW EMERGING FROM AN IMPULSE OF SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC ORIGINS MAY GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA. DOWNSTREAM...A NARROW BELT OF MODEST WEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY DEVELOP ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF SUPPRESSED SUBTROPICAL RIDGING /CENTERED OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST/...FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS... A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...PERHAPS PRECEDED/MASKED BY CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...PROBABLY WILL SLOW OR STALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY...WHILE CONTINUING TO ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE STRONGER MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...AND BENEATH A RELATIVELY WARM MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY GENERALLY WEAK LAPSE RATES. EVEN WITHIN A SEASONABLY MOIST PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR...MIXED LAYER CAPE MAY NOT EXCEED 1000-2000 J/KG. DESPITE THESE LIMITATIONS...DESTABILIZATION AND FORCING IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT RENEWED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS ACTIVITY COULD BE ENHANCED BY A BELT OF LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 30 KT OR SO...WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING AND DOWNWARD MIXING OF THIS MOMENTUM CONTRIBUTING TO AT LEAST SOME RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.


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"Britain Lost Its Mind When Lightning Struck 110,000 Times"

Take a look at this story from BuzzFeed.com  - I guess Mother Nature wanted in on the firework activity over Britain!

See the full story from BuzzFeed.com HERE:


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"Former WWII weather observer relives sunny days during trip to Scott Air Force Base"

Here's a neat story about a former WWII weather observer, an 87 year old woman named Cadena, who got to relive her weather observing days during a recent trip to Scott Air Force Base.

"SCOTT AIR FORCE BASE, ILL. - Norma Gene Cadena’s last wish is to relive her days as a weather observer and to see what it would be like today to do the same job. At 87, Cadena has terminal lung cancer and, through the Sisters of Saint Mary Health Hospice and Home Health Foundation “Memories that Last” program, her wish was granted to visit the 15th Operational Weather Squadron on Scott Air Force Base, June 26, 2015. Towards the end of World War II the U.S. Weather Bureau hired more than 900 women as observers and forecasters to fill the positions of men who’d been called to duty; one of those women was Cadena. Although she said she was only a “weather girl” for about a year she still remembers the responsibilities and importance of a weather observer’s job." 

Read more from dvidshub.net HERE:

"Norma Cadena admires a squadron coin she received from Lt. Col. Danielle Budzko, 15th Operational Readiness Squadron commander during her visit to the squadron at Scott Air Force Base, Ill., June 26, 2015. After she received the coin she kept asking members if they wanted to see it, but wouldn’t let anyone hold it. (U.S. Air Force photo/Staff Sgt. Stephenie Wade)"

Thanks for checking in and have a great week ahead! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

Sticky Sunshine Sunday; Strong Storms & Heavy Rain Overnight

Stormy PM Sunday Expected

"An active afternoon and evening is ahead, with severe weather and heavy rainfall likely. Storms this afternoon will be most likely across central Minnesota, with a line of storms expected to work across Minnesota tonight and into western Wisconsin by Monday morning."

Saturday's Smoky Skies

Did you notice anything different about the sunrises and sunsets this weekend? Didn't the sun look more red/orange than normal? You can thank smoke from distant wildfires in Canada, Northwest Territories and Alaska! A thick plume drifted over the region Friday and Saturday and made for some pretty interesting looking skies. However, not sure if it was just me, but I sure felt like my throat was a little scratchy with all this hazy stuff floating around... Interestingly, the National Weather Service was getting reports of ash falling in the St. Cloud area on Friday!!

Note that even the sun's reflection in the water looks smoky! Neat picture Jackie!!

(Image below courtesy: Jackie Koch)

Poor Air Quality

This was the air quality loop from early Saturday morning, which showed particularly high levels of particulates over parts of central and northern Minnesota. Much of this can be attributed to the smoke across the area thanks to all the wildfires across Canada, Northwest Territories and Alaska. COUGH - HACK - UGH!

Smoke Via Visible Satellite

Thanks to the National Weather Service out of Central Illinois for the image below showing how widespread the smoke was on Saturday, the 4th of July:

The visible satellite image from Saturday morning showed much of the Midwest was still being affected (milky gray shades, contrasted by the bright-white appearance of the clouds). If the smoke gets thick enough, it can actually reduce high temperatures by a couple degrees, similar to thick high clouds. Sunrise and sunset will continue to appear redder than usual, and if the smoke starts to work its way more toward the surface, it can cause irritation for people with breathing difficulties.

See more HERE:

Smoke Analysis 7AM Saturday

Take a look at how thick the smoke was across the Upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday morning. No wonder why it was so hazy and air quality was so bad... YUCK!

Smoke Analysis 7AM Sunday

The good news is that skies should appear more clear on Sunday across much of Minnesota as the smoke looks to drift a little farther east across the Great Lakes.

Stormy Sunday Night
By Todd Nelson

COUGH! HACK! UGH. Not sure about you, but I had a nagging cough and sore throat from all the ambient smoke and haze that was hanging around Saturday. Thanks to several large wildfires in Canada, Northwest Territories and Alaska, air quality close to home was running a bit on the unhealthy side. Interestingly, the National Weather Service was actually getting reports of ash falling around the St. Cloud area on Friday!

The good news is that skies should appear a little more clear Sunday as upper level winds have become more westerly. Winds at the surface will favor a more southerly direction, which will keep the warm and muggy air streaming northward ahead of a storm system that will plow through Sunday night with scattered storms and heavy rain. I wouldn't cancel any outdoor plans as much of the day looks dry, but a few strong storms and heavy rains look to conclude our holiday weekend overnight. The morning rush Monday looks wet as scattered storms rumble toward Wisconsin. 1 to 2 inches may be possible in central MN by PM Monday.

Heads up; temps near 90 degrees by mid July could prompt many to mutter a familiar summer phrase, "It's too hot."
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SATURDAY NIGHT: Warm and sticky - still dry. Low: 67. Winds: SSW 5-10

SUNDAY: Breezy. Sticky sun, T-storms at night. High: 87. Winds: S 10-20.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Storms develop (a few strong) with heavy rainfall. Low: 69. Winds: S 10-15

MONDAY: AM T-showers, slow PM clearing. High: 78. Winds: Turning NW 10-15

TUESDAY: Sunny, just about perfect with lower humidity. Wake-up: 59. High: 77

WEDNESDAY: Comfortable. More PM clouds. Wake-up: 60. High: 78

THURSDAY: Warmer. Stray PM T-shower? Wake-up: 68. High: 80.

FRIDAY: Sticky. Scattered PM rumbles. Wake up: 64. High: 84.

SATURDAY: Feels like summer. Unsettled PM. Wake-up: 65. High: 86.
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This Day in Weather History
July 5th

1999: Flooding over the Arrowhead. The largest 24-hour rainfall total was 8.84 inches in central St. Louis County.
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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
July 5th

Average High: 83F (Record: 100F set in 1982)
Average Low: 64F (Record: 45F set in 1972)
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
July 5th

Sunrise: 5:33am
Sunset: 9:02pm
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Moon Phase for July 5th at Midnight
2.6 Days Before Last Quarter


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Minneapolis Temperature Trend

Mild and near average temperatures continue over the next several days with highs in the mid to upper 70s and low to mid 80s. Extended model runs are suggesting a bit of a warm up by mid July with highs approaching 90F.


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Sunday Weather Outlook

Much of the day Sunday will be nice and dry with sunshine and mild temperatures. It certainly won't be as hazy as it was on Saturday, but it will be a little breezy and more sticky as the dewpoint climbs a bit.

Sunday Weather Outlook

Much of the day Sunday will be dry, but a front moving in from the northwest will be responsible for scattered showers and storms late in the day/overnight. The images below suggest weather conditions by 5pm Sunday with showers and storms across northwestern Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas. Some of these storms could be strong to possibly severe with heavy rainfall...

Rain Potential

Scattered thunderstorms look to develop late Sunday across the Dakotas and northern Minnesota. The trend will be to push east through Minnesota and Wisconsin Sunday night and Monday with potentially some strong storms, but also heavy rain. The forecast calls for as much as 1" to nearly 3" in spots through early week.

Sunday Severe Threat

A fairly vigorous storm system will push through the Midwest late Sunday afternoon/overnight with strong to possible severe storms across the region. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted areas that have the best chance of severe storms through early Monday morning.

Simulated Radar 7pm Sunday

Simulated Radar 10pm Sunday

Simulated Radar 1am Monday

Simulated Radar 4am Monday

Simulated Radar 7am Monday


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National Weather Outlook

Scattered storms and heavy rainfall potential will round out the weekend across the southeastern part of the U.S., while another storm system develops across the Midwest. Note the storm system plowing south through the Midwest/Plains through into early next week. This will be responsible for scattered storms (some strong to severe) and heavy rainfall.

3 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's WPC, the 3 day precipitation outlook shows pockets of heavy rainfall potential across parts of the Upper Midwest, the Central/Southern Plains and from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Mid-Atlantic States. The heaviest amounts may be 1" to 3" or more possible through Tuesday.

5 Day Precipitation Outlook

If we extend the precipitation outlook another 2 days, rainfall tallies look even more impressive over the Central/Southern Plains with as much as 2" to nearly 5" through Thursday. This may even lead to localized flooding concerns.


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Severe Threat Saturday

...SUMMARY... THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST INCLUDING SOUTH DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO MINNESOTA AND FAR NORTHERN IOWA. ...SYNOPSIS... THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH/STRENGTHENING POLAR JET OVER THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND THE ADJACENT DAKOTAS/UPPER MIDWEST...WITH A RELATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO GENERALLY ADVANCE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS...A SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE TN VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. ...NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST... ONGOING STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MT EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD PERSIST EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY INTO PARTS OF ND/NORTHERN SD...WITH SOME EARLY DAY SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINING A POSSIBILITY. PENDING THEIR OVERNIGHT EVOLUTION...THE LINGERING STORM CLUSTERS/MCS AND RELATED COOL POOL/CLOUD COVER CAST SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXTENT/MAGNITUDE OF NEAR-FRONTAL DESTABILIZATION WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT ACROSS ND/NORTHWEST MN. HOWEVER...ANY RESIDUAL COLD POOL/MCV MAY BE A PRE-FRONTAL IMPETUS FOR RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION THIS AFTERNOON SOMEWHERE WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST ND INTO NORTHERN MN. REGARDLESS OF THE EVOLUTION DETAILS...AT LEAST SOME DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE PRESUMPTIONS OF MODERATE NEAR/PRE-FRONTAL DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...A SOMEWHAT MORE CONCENTRATED/CERTAIN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR NEAR/JUST BEHIND THE SOUTHEASTWARD-ADVANCING FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PARTICULARLY IN A CORRIDOR SPANNING SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL/NORTHEAST SD. THIS REGION WILL BE INFLUENCED BY DPVA/HEIGHT FALLS AND STRENGTHENING MID/HIGHER-LEVEL CYCLONIC WESTERLIES. VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/AMPLE BUOYANCY AND 40+ KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR /MAXIMIZED NEAR AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT/ WILL SUPPORT INITIAL SUPERCELLS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF VERY LARGE /2+ INCH DIAMETER/ HAIL. A TORNADO OR TWO COULD ALSO OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT THE OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL TEND TO BE LIMITED BY RELATIVELY HIGH CLOUD BASES. TOWARD/AFTER SUNSET...STORM MERGERS/PROBABLE COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A NOCTURNALLY STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD LEAD TO AN UPSCALE GROWING/FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN SD AND SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA. ACCORDINGLY...A CORRIDOR OF DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE/CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS...AND POSSIBLY EVEN PERSIST OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA TOWARD THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. ...ARKLATEX/LOWER MS VALLEY/SOUTHEAST STATES... RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO MULTIPLE CORRIDORS OF THUNDERSTORM INTENSIFICATION BY AFTERNOON SPANNING THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MS VALLEY...EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS ON THE EAST/SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE TN VALLEY UPPER LOW. WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COINCIDENT WITH POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR STRONGER PULSE-TYPE STORMS AND THE EVOLUTION OF SOME LINE SEGMENTS. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE DOWNBURSTS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

Severe Threat Sunday

...SUMMARY...
   WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
   MONDAY IN A CORRIDOR FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
   SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WITHIN A STRONGER BELT OF MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES EXTENDING ACROSS
   SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S...A SIGNIFICANT
   EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY TURN EASTWARD
   ALONG THE CENTRAL CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.
   THIS FEATURE MAY SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT CYCLOGENESIS ALONG AN
   ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE...EITHER ACROSS OR NORTHEAST OF THE
   UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.  CONSIDERABLE SPREAD HAS BEEN PRESENT
   AMONG THE MODELS AND WITHIN THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE OUTPUT
   CONCERNING THESE DEVELOPMENTS...AND THIS IS ADDING TO UNCERTAINTY
   WITH REGARD TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THIS PERIOD.

   ...UPPER MIDWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...
   IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER IMPULSE...MODELS DO APPEAR IN GENERAL
   AGREEMENT THAT A PLUME OF RELATIVELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES...ASSOCIATED WITH VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR EMANATING
   FROM THE ROCKIES/PLATEAU REGION...WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE BY EARLY
   MONDAY.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT FROM A COMBINATION OF
   CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
   NIGHT...ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FROM PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
   CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AS WELL AS
   CONTINUED WARMING AT HIGHER LEVELS ABOVE THIS PLUME /WARMING ABOVE
   -6 C AT 500 MB/.  MODELS ALSO APPEAR TO GENERALLY INDICATE THAT THE
   SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WILL CONTINUE TO CONSIDERABLY OUTRUN THE COOLER
   AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER IMPULSE.  STRONGER MID/UPPER
   WIND FIELDS MAY ALSO LAG TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...EXCEPT
   PERHAPS PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN INTO UPPER MICHIGAN...WHERE EARLY
   PERIOD CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION MAY LIMIT SURFACE
   HEATING.

   PERHAPS OFFSETTING THESE POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS...MODELS DO
   INDICATE CONTINUED MOISTENING WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR FROM
   PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST...WHERE
   LOWER/MID 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS APPEAR POSSIBLE.  DESPITE THE LACK
   OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SEASONABLY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTURE CONTENT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATELY LARGE CAPE /WITH
   LATENT INSTABILITY EXTENDING THROUGH A DEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAYER/.

   WHILE THIS ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE TO THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE LENGTH
   OF THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE EXTENT OF THE SEVERE
   WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS UNCLEAR.  IT MAY LARGELY HINGE OF THE
   STRENGTH OF THE PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHERLY 850 MB WIND FIELDS WHICH
   REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THE PRESENT TIME...WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION
   LOADING AND DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER BOTH POSSIBLY CONTRIBUTING TO
   THE RISK FOR POTENTIAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.


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8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook suggests that areas in the Eastern U.S. and Alaska have a chance of warmer than average temperatures through mid July.

"How will El Niño affect 2015’s placement among the warmest years on record?"

Here's an interesting story from Climate.gov about how this year's El Nino could make for one of the warmest years on record:

"El Niño is characterized by, among other things, a large footprint of warmer-than-normal surface water across much of the tropical Pacific Ocean. This footprint contributes directly to warmer globally-averaged temperatures, in the same way that, if you leave one of your stovetop burners on “warm” the average temperature of the whole stovetop is warmer. But the warm footprint also adds heat to the atmosphere, just like the warm burner heats the air just above it. The atmosphere carries this along, reinforcing, over time, the direct heating from the “warm burner” in the tropical Pacific. Bringing it back to this year, this El Niño event, as it continues to take hold, will definitely increase 2015’s chances to place among the warmest years, if not the warmest, on record. We’ll touch base again towards the end of the year for a recap. Until then, I hope you’ve enjoyed going Beyond the Data."

See more from Climate.gov HERE:


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"PGA meteorologist Brad Nelson keeps golfers safe"

Here's a neat story about my good friend and former classmate from St. Cloud State University, Brad Nelson, who works as a PGA meteorologist:

"A unique professional is in attendance at the Nova Scotia Open being held at Ashburn Golf Club. Not a golfer, caddie, or member of a television crew. No, Brad Nelson is a highly trained onsite meteorologist for Schneider Electric, contracted by the PGA Tour. It's his job to ensure that participants and spectators remain safe in the elements, and it can be challenging. Brad begins by telling me about the top weather hazard in golf. "The number one related hazard out here is definitely lightning." In order to aid him in lightning detection Brad brings a very specific instrument to the event. This is a CS-110 lightning detection system developed by Campbell Scientific.  The instrument measures the electric charge in the atmosphere. As a storm approaches, the voltage measured by the unit increases and at a certain threshold, an alarm is issued. At that point shelter should be sought indoors. Can the onsite meteorologist and his lightning detection system make for a safer experience? So far the results say yes."

See the full story from CBC.ca HERE:

(image courtesy: CBC)

Thanks for checking in and have a great rest of your weekend and week ahead! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX