Tuesday Afternoon Storms
A few storms rapidly developed on Tuesday afternoon west of the Twin Cities. Here was a picture taken from Hanover, MN as the cumulonimbus was obscuring the sun.
Radar From Tuesday Afternoon
The spotty thunderstorms that developed PM Tuesday were pretty slow movers, but a few of them were fairly intense. There were a hail reports of 1" in diameter south of Willmar.
Here were the hail reports from PM Tuesday as the spotty storms developing in western MN.
Severe Weather Concerns Continue
Unsettled weather looks to continue over the next several days with some of the storms close to home on the strong to possibly even severe side. According to NOAA's SPC, there is a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather across southwestern MN and a MARGINAL THREAT across most of the rest of the state. It appears that by Thursday, the best potential for strong to severe storms will be found across Southern MN into Iowa and Wisconsin as MARGINAL and SLIGHT risk areas continue there.
Severe Weather Potential Wednesday
...NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY... A BAND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION WILL RAPIDLY PROGRESS NWD ACROSS MUCH OF MN...IA...AND WRN WI DURING THE DAY. THE VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AS INSTABILITY IS MAINTAINED VIA ADVECTION. THE VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH HEIGHT ALSO SUGGEST A WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY CELLULAR CONVECTION. BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY...HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER THE DAKOTAS...NEB AND SWRN MN. SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM CNTRL SD INTO NEB...SPREADING NEWD WITH A THREAT OF HAIL AND WIND. THE COLD PROFILES ALOFT SUGGEST ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH MUCH WILL DEPEND ON STORM MODE.
Severe Weather Threat Thursday
The simulated radar from AM Tuesday to PM Thursday shows unsettled weather returning Wednesday as our next wave of energy rotates through the region. It appears that an area of showers and storms move through central MN during the first part of the day with additional thunderstorms developing during the second half of the day. While a few strong to severe storms can't be ruled out across the state on Wednesday, it appears the best chance of more vigorous storms will be found southwest of the Twin Cities.
Rainfall potential through 7pm Thursday still looks fairly impressive across the state with widespread 0.50" to near 0.75" amounts. There could also be a few areas that get more than 1" through that time period.
Longer Range Precipitation Outlook
Longer range models are still indicating heavy rainfall potential through Memorial Day Monday. Several shots of showers and storms could bring widespread 1" to near 2"+ rainfall to the area. However, thunderstorms are unique in a sense that some could see very heavy rainfall, while only a few miles down the road, rainfall amounts could be minimal to none. The image below is the GFS solution through 7pm Monday, which is suggesting some 1" to near 3" amounts in spots.
Situational Awareness for Outdoor Summer Events
By Paul Douglas
During Monday's soggy Twins game a guy leaned over and showed me Doppler on his smartphone. "Yep, red blobs are cause for concern." The much-advertised chaos at the Beyonce concert left some people indignant, but here's the thing: you don't want to rely on anyone else for your personal safety, especially in large crowds.
When I'm at a stadium I keep tabs on how close I am to the nearest exit. If a warning is issued, or lightning is showing up nearby, I don't want to be in the stands, but an interior concession area, preferably surrounded by concrete and reinforced steel. With weather apps you can go on offense, take evasive action BEFORE storms strike. Less running and screaming.
More showers & heavy T-storms rumble into Minnesota Wednesday; the drive home another slow-motion slog. After a brief break from puddles Thursday the next stormy swirl pushes more storms into town late Friday into Saturday; another 1-2 inches of rain may trigger minor flooding.
The sun breaks through Sunday, with low 80s on Monday (and a nagging late-day thunder risk).
Far from ideal, but we'll get by.
TUESDAY NIGHT:: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a passing t-storm. Low: 62. Winds: E 5mph.
WEDNESDAY: Thundery downpours possible. High: 81. Wind: SE 10-20 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Spotty storms possible. Low: 63. Winds: S 5mph
THURSDAY: Damp start, then some sticky sun. High: 81. Wind: SW 10-15 mph.
FRIDAY: More T-storms with locally heavy rain. Wake-up: 64. High: 77. Wind: S 10-15 mph.
SATURDAY: Wettest day, numerous T-storms. Wake-up: 64. High: 76. Wind: S 8-13 mph.
SUNDAY: A bit drier with sunny breaks. Wake-up: 62. High: 81. Wind: SW 8-13 mph.
MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY: Some sun. Watch for late day storms. Wake-up: 65. High: 82. Wind: S 7-12 mph.
TUESDAY: What a sock: more t-storms. Sticky. Wake-up: 64. High: 79. Winds: SE 8-13mph.
This Day in Weather History
2008: An EF-3 tornado strikes Hugo, MN. 1 fatality and 9 injuries are reported.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
Average High: 72F (Record: 94F set in 1978)
Average Low: 52F (Record: 33F set in 1901)
Sunrise/Sunset for Minneapolis
*Daylight gained since yesterday: ~1min & 47secs
*Daylight gained since Winter Solstice: ~6hrs & 25mins
Moon Phase for May 25th at Midnight
3.2 Days Before Last Quarter
There's good news for folks that have been enjoying the warmer weather as of late... there's more to come! Wednesday's temperature outlook suggests warmer than average temperatures once again with highs in the 70s to low 80s across the state. However, it may feel a little cooler at times with the sun being obscured by clouds.
Weather conditions on Wednesday look fairly unsettled with a few scattered showers and storms possible during the first part of the days and once again in the afternoon. Here's the weather outlook around midday, which not only shows shower and spotty storm chances, but it also shows fairly widespread cloud coverage as well.
As our next impulse of energy slides through the Upper Midwest, wind speeds look to increase through the afternoon. While Wednesday won't be technically 'windy', it will be a little more breezy that Tuesday was with some spots seeing wind gusts to near 20mph across the western part of the state.
A little more than 1 week ago we were talking about significantly colder than average temperatures and areas of patchy frost and freeze. The extended outlook through the first few days of June doesn't suggest anything like that! In fact, it appears that through the end of the month into early June, a string of 80s may be developing! Seems as if we may be settling right into summer weather as the first day of Meteorological Summer approaches June 1st.
6 to 10 Day Temp Outlook
Even NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is on board with warmer than average temperatures from May 29th to June 2nd! Again, if you're enjoying the warmer than average temperatures as of late, it looks promising for you through the early part of June!
...SUMMARY... A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL ARE LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI ON WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL. HAIL AND WIND ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS OVERNIGHT. ...SYNOPSIS... A MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WRN STATES WITH UPPER LOWS OVER ND AND AZ. THE NRN SYSTEM WILL BE COMPRISED OF AN EARLY DISTURBANCE MOVING QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...ACCOMPANIED BY A WARM FRONT AND AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF PRECIPITATION. BY AFTERNOON...A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NEB AND SD AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLING ALOFT...INCREASING DEEP-LAYER PROFILES AND LIFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS. TO THE S...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN FROM THE MID MO VALLEY SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F AND SLY SFC WINDS. A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM S CNTRL KS ACROSS WRN OK AND INTO W CNTRL TX BY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SEVERE STORMS THERE AS WELL. HEIGHT FALLS AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER SWRN TX AS THE BASE OF THE LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO NM...AND MAY SUPPORT NOCTURNAL SEVERE STORMS IN TX.
...SUMMARY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY. OTHER MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
1. An area of showers and thunderstorms over the western Atlantic Ocean near and northeast of the Bahamas is associated with the interaction of an upper-level trough and a weakening cold front. While development is not expected for the next couple of days, environmental conditions could become more conducive for some tropical or subtropical development by Friday. This area of disturbed weather is expected to move slowly west-northwestward or northwestward and gradually approach the southeastern United States over the next few days. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by 4 PM EDT Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent
One of the most important factors playing into this season is the imminent presence of La Niña, the cold phase of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. La Niña tends to decrease the wind shear over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, which is one enabling ingredient in hurricane formation. Therefore, it is not surprising that some of the more active hurricane seasons over the past several decades were often associated with La Niña. Seasons with below-normal hurricane activity have coincided with La Niña in the past, but this has not occurred since 1978. But this year, both La Niña and warm oceans side with the hurricanes. Global ocean temperatures have been breaking new record highs over the past several months, meaning that together with reduced wind shear via La Niña, the atmosphere is practically rolling out the red carpet for the procession to begin. And the favorability does not end there, as there should be plenty of fuel available for tropical development. Year-to-date precipitation over the African Sahel has been above average, which will reduce both the availability and distribution of dry, hurricane-disruptive air into the tropics during the season.
Climate Change May Be Just as Hard on Lizards as it is on Polar Bears
Here's an interesting story from the Atlantic that suggests climate change me just as hard on lizards as it is on polar bears.
"You’d think desert creatures would love climate change. They already thrive in the hottest, driest places on earth. But Barrows sees their numbers “dwindling,” an observation that reflects a larger trend: From Southern Africa to the Southwestern U.S., arid environments are becoming even less hospitable, and their denizens—animals as well as plants—seem to be struggling to keep up."
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