Paul Douglas on Weather Logo

Blog

Paul Douglas on Weather

More Storms Wednesday - Heavy Rainfall and Unsettled Through The Weekend

Tuesday Afternoon Storms

A few storms rapidly developed on Tuesday afternoon west of the Twin Cities. Here was a picture taken from Hanover, MN as the cumulonimbus was obscuring the sun.

Radar From Tuesday Afternoon

The spotty thunderstorms that developed PM Tuesday were pretty slow movers, but a few of them were fairly intense. There were a hail reports of 1" in diameter south of Willmar.

Hail Reports

Here were the hail reports from PM Tuesday as the spotty storms developing in western MN.


_______________________________________

Severe Weather Concerns Continue

Unsettled weather looks to continue over the next several days with some of the storms close to home on the strong to possibly even severe side. According to NOAA's SPC, there is a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather across southwestern MN and a MARGINAL THREAT across most of the rest of the state. It appears that by Thursday, the best potential for strong to severe storms will be found across Southern MN into Iowa and Wisconsin as MARGINAL and SLIGHT risk areas continue there.

Severe Weather Potential Wednesday

 ...NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY... A BAND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION WILL RAPIDLY PROGRESS NWD ACROSS MUCH OF MN...IA...AND WRN WI DURING THE DAY. THE VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AS INSTABILITY IS MAINTAINED VIA ADVECTION. THE VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH HEIGHT ALSO SUGGEST A WEAK/BRIEF TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY CELLULAR CONVECTION. BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY...HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER THE DAKOTAS...NEB AND SWRN MN. SCATTERED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM CNTRL SD INTO NEB...SPREADING NEWD WITH A THREAT OF HAIL AND WIND. THE COLD PROFILES ALOFT SUGGEST ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH MUCH WILL DEPEND ON STORM MODE.

Severe Weather Threat Thursday

______________________

Simulated Radar

The simulated radar from AM Tuesday to PM Thursday shows unsettled weather returning Wednesday as our next wave of energy rotates through the region. It appears that an area of showers and storms move through central MN during the first part of the day with additional thunderstorms developing during the second half of the day. While a few strong to severe storms can't be ruled out across the state on Wednesday, it appears the best chance of more vigorous storms will be found southwest of the Twin Cities.

Rainfall Potential

Rainfall potential through 7pm Thursday still looks fairly impressive across the state with widespread 0.50" to near 0.75" amounts. There could also be a few areas that get more than 1" through that time period.

Longer Range Precipitation Outlook

Longer range models are still indicating heavy rainfall potential through Memorial Day Monday. Several shots of showers and storms could bring widespread 1" to near 2"+ rainfall to the area. However, thunderstorms are unique in a sense that some could see very heavy rainfall, while only a few miles down the road, rainfall amounts could be minimal to none. The image below is the GFS solution through 7pm Monday, which is suggesting some 1" to near 3" amounts in spots.


_______________________

Situational Awareness for Outdoor Summer Events
By Paul Douglas

During Monday's soggy Twins game a guy leaned over and showed me Doppler on his smartphone. "Yep, red blobs are cause for concern." The much-advertised chaos at the Beyonce concert left some people indignant, but here's the thing: you don't want to rely on anyone else for your personal safety, especially in large crowds.

When I'm at a stadium I keep tabs on how close I am to the nearest exit. If a warning is issued, or lightning is showing up nearby, I don't want to be in the stands, but an interior concession area, preferably surrounded by concrete and reinforced steel. With weather apps you can go on offense, take evasive action BEFORE storms strike. Less running and screaming.

More showers & heavy T-storms rumble into Minnesota Wednesday; the drive home another slow-motion slog. After a brief break from puddles Thursday the next stormy swirl pushes more storms into town late Friday into Saturday; another 1-2 inches of rain may trigger minor flooding.

The sun breaks through Sunday, with low 80s on Monday (and a nagging late-day thunder risk).

Far from ideal, but we'll get by.
_______________________

Weather Outlook

TUESDAY NIGHT:: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of a passing t-storm. Low: 62. Winds: E 5mph.

WEDNESDAY: Thundery downpours possible. High: 81. Wind: SE 10-20 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Spotty storms possible. Low: 63. Winds: S 5mph

THURSDAY: Damp start, then some sticky sun. High: 81. Wind: SW 10-15 mph.

FRIDAY: More T-storms with locally heavy rain. Wake-up: 64. High: 77. Wind: S 10-15 mph.

SATURDAY: Wettest day, numerous T-storms. Wake-up: 64. High: 76. Wind: S 8-13 mph.

SUNDAY: A bit drier with sunny breaks. Wake-up: 62. High: 81. Wind: SW 8-13 mph.

MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY: Some sun. Watch for late day storms. Wake-up: 65. High: 82. Wind: S 7-12 mph.

TUESDAY: What a sock: more t-storms. Sticky. Wake-up: 64. High: 79. Winds: SE 8-13mph.
_________________________________________

This Day in Weather History
May 25th

2008: An EF-3 tornado strikes Hugo, MN. 1 fatality and 9 injuries are reported.

See more from the NWS HERE:


________________________

Average High/Low for Minneapolis
May 25th

Average High: 72F (Record: 94F set in 1978)
Average Low: 52F (Record: 33F set in 1901)
_________________________

Sunrise/Sunset for Minneapolis
May 25th

Sunrise: 5:34am
Sunset: 8:46pm

*Daylight gained since yesterday: ~1min & 47secs
*Daylight gained since Winter Solstice: ~6hrs & 25mins
___________________________

Moon Phase for May 25th at Midnight
3.2 Days Before Last Quarter

___________________________________

Wednesday Outlook

There's good news for folks that have been enjoying the warmer weather as of late... there's more to come! Wednesday's temperature outlook suggests warmer than average temperatures once again with highs in the 70s to low 80s across the state. However, it may feel a little cooler at times with the sun being obscured by clouds.

Wednesday Outlook

Weather conditions on Wednesday look fairly unsettled with a few scattered showers and storms possible during the first part of the days and once again in the afternoon. Here's the weather outlook around midday, which not only shows shower and spotty storm chances, but it also shows fairly widespread cloud coverage as well.

Wednesday Outlook

As our next impulse of energy slides through the Upper Midwest, wind speeds look to increase through the afternoon. While Wednesday won't be technically 'windy', it will be a little more breezy that Tuesday was with some spots seeing wind gusts to near 20mph across the western part of the state.


_________________________________________

Extended Outlook

A little more than 1 week ago we were talking about significantly colder than average temperatures and areas of patchy frost and freeze. The extended outlook through the first few days of June doesn't suggest anything like that! In fact, it appears that through the end of the month into early June, a string of 80s may be developing! Seems as if we may be settling right into summer weather as the first day of Meteorological Summer approaches June 1st.

6 to 10 Day Temp Outlook

Even NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is on board with warmer than average temperatures from May 29th to June 2nd! Again, if you're enjoying the warmer than average temperatures as of late, it looks promising for you through the early part of June!


_____________________________________
 
National Weather Outlook
 
The national weather outlook through PM Thursday suggests continued unsettled weather across the midsection of the nation with widespread showers and storms, some of which could be strong to severe weather heavy rainfall and flooding.
 
 
Severe Threat Wednesday
 ...SUMMARY... A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL ARE LIKELY FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI ON WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL. HAIL AND WIND ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS OVERNIGHT. ...SYNOPSIS... A MEAN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE WRN STATES WITH UPPER LOWS OVER ND AND AZ. THE NRN SYSTEM WILL BE COMPRISED OF AN EARLY DISTURBANCE MOVING QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...ACCOMPANIED BY A WARM FRONT AND AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF PRECIPITATION. BY AFTERNOON...A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NEB AND SD AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOLING ALOFT...INCREASING DEEP-LAYER PROFILES AND LIFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS. TO THE S...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN FROM THE MID MO VALLEY SWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 F AND SLY SFC WINDS. A DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM S CNTRL KS ACROSS WRN OK AND INTO W CNTRL TX BY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING A FEW SEVERE STORMS THERE AS WELL. HEIGHT FALLS AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER SWRN TX AS THE BASE OF THE LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO NM...AND MAY SUPPORT NOCTURNAL SEVERE STORMS IN TX. 
 
Severe Threat Thursday
 ...SUMMARY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY. OTHER MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
 
Heavy Rainfall Potential
 
While the 240hr rainfall forecast from the GFS is a little excessive in terms of length of forecast, it does show the potential of heavy rainfall across the Central U.S. through the end of the month. Note the brighter blobs (heavier rain) over the Midwest and across the Southern Plains. These are areas that could experience flooding in any significant convective rainfall events through that time period. Also note the heavier blob of moisture developing off the southeast coast of the U.S.. There are some indications of an interesting area of low pressure developing over the open waters of the Atlantic before moving toward the Carolinas this weekend. Will this system have tropical characteristics? We'll see...
 
 
National Hurricane Center Outlook
 
Interestingly, the National Hurricane Center has issued a statement on this particular area of low pressure in the Western Atlantic... While the deem it to have a 0% of formation over the next 48 hours, it has a 30% of formation over the next 5 days!
 1. An area of showers and thunderstorms over the western Atlantic Ocean near and northeast of the Bahamas is associated with the interaction of an upper-level trough and a weakening cold front. While development is not expected for the next couple of days, environmental conditions could become more conducive for some tropical or subtropical development by Friday. This area of disturbed weather is expected to move slowly west-northwestward or northwestward and gradually approach the southeastern United States over the next few days. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued by 4 PM EDT Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent 
 
 
Coastal Storm Developing?
 
This is the forecast for AM Saturday as the aforementioned area of low pressure develops further and slides north toward the Carolinas... Stay tuned as this system develops.
 

___________________________________________________
"Atlantic Hurricane Season Could Be More Active Than Normal"
Here's a story from Reuters regarding the potential of a more active Atlantic Hurricane Season this year due to a developing La Nina...

One of the most important factors playing into this season is the imminent presence of La Niña, the cold phase of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. La Niña tends to decrease the wind shear over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, which is one enabling ingredient in hurricane formation. Therefore, it is not surprising that some of the more active hurricane seasons over the past several decades were often associated with La Niña. Seasons with below-normal hurricane activity have coincided with La Niña in the past, but this has not occurred since 1978. But this year, both La Niña and warm oceans side with the hurricanes. Global ocean temperatures have been breaking new record highs over the past several months, meaning that together with reduced wind shear via La Niña, the atmosphere is practically rolling out the red carpet for the procession to begin. And the favorability does not end there, as there should be plenty of fuel available for tropical development. Year-to-date precipitation over the African Sahel has been above average, which will reduce both the availability and distribution of dry, hurricane-disruptive air into the tropics during the season.

See more from Reuters.com HERE:

__________________________________________________

Climate Change May Be Just as Hard on Lizards as it is on Polar Bears

Here's an interesting story from the Atlantic that suggests climate change me just as hard on lizards as it is on polar bears.
"You’d think desert creatures would love climate change. They already thrive in the hottest, driest places on earth. But Barrows sees their numbers “dwindling,” an observation that reflects a larger trend: From Southern Africa to the Southwestern U.S., arid environments are becoming even less hospitable, and their denizens—animals as well as plants—seem to be struggling to keep up."

See more from the Atlantic.com HERE:

_____________________________________

Thanks for checking in and follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

Sunny Tuesday, Storms Return Wednesday - 1-3"+ Of Rain Possible By Memorial Day

Minnesota Crop Update
 
 
The latest crop progress update for Minnesota was released Monday from the USDA, showing that the recent frost didn't have much of an impact on the corn crop. 78% of the corn statewide has emerged, and 65% of that is in good to excellent condition. Meanwhile, 86% of the soybean crop is planted. Read more from the USDA.
_______________________________________________

Minnesota May Rain

Besides the wet period we had in the Twin Cities between the 9th and 13th, May has been pretty dry across many areas of the state. The heaviest rain so far this month has been in parts of southwest Minnesota, where some rain gauges have recorded between 2-4" of rain. Through Sunday, the largest rain so far this month was 4.09" reported three miles WSW of Sherburn.

This May is starting off as one of the driest on record for some areas of the upper Midwest. In Fargo, the 0.08" of rain they received through the first 22 days of May was the third driest start to the month on record (the driest was 0.04" in 1980). The 0.38" received through Sunday in International Falls ranks it as the sixth driest start to May on record (driest: 0.07" in 1917).

The less than two inches of rain that we've seen so far this month across a good chunk of the upper Midwest is a good 1-2" below average from where we should be. Remember that this doesn't take into account any rain that fell Monday. The rain that comes this week should help put a dent into the rainfall deficit that we've been running.
_______________________________________________

Do You Have a Severe Storm Action Plan?
By: Paul Douglas

'Tis the season for outdoor weddings and grad parties. Do yourself a big favor: RENT THE TENT. It's always good to have a Plan B, especially in June, the wettest, most severe month of the year in Minnesota.
A NOAA Weather Radio works great at home or the office, but when you're mobile how do know when violent weather is approaching? Put that shiny supercomputer in your pocket (smartphone) to good use. There are now apps that send warnings directly to your phone, based on your GPS-location.
Review an action plan with your family. "Where would you go if this was the real deal?" A little paranoia goes a long way.
We will be in a volatile, tropical pattern into next week with numerous showers & T-storms. No major severe outbreak is imminent, but models print out 2-3 inches of rain by Memorial Day.
Wednesday and Saturday look like the wettest days; with light steering winds aloft storms may linger, increasing the risk of isolated flash flooding. Throw in orange construction cones and you have a party on the freeway!
Take it easy out there; the thundery days of summer are here.
_______________________________________________
 
Extended Forecast
 
TUESDAY: Warm sun, drier. High: 83. Low: 65. Chance of precipitation: 10%. Wind: W 3-8 mph.
WEDNESDAY: More showers and T-storms. High: 75. Low: 63. Chance of precipitation: 80%. Wind: SE 10-20 mph.
THURSDAY: Another break, intervals of sun. High: 80. Low: 63. Chance of precipitation: 20%. Wind: W 10-15 mph.
FRIDAY: Unsettled & sticky, few T-storms. High: 77. Low: 62. Chance of precipitation: 50%. Wind: S 10-15 mph.
SATURDAY: Wettest day of the holiday weekend. High: 76. Low: 63. Chance of precipitation: 90%. Wind: S 10-15 mph.
SUNDAY: Some sun, instability T-storm. High: 80. Low: 63. Chance of precipitation: 40%. Wind: SW 8-13 mph.
MONDAY: Probably the sunniest, driest day. High: 83. Low: 64. Chance of precipitation: 20%. Wind: W 7-12 mph.

_______________________________________________

This Day in Weather History
May 24th

1925: After seeing a high of 99 degrees two days earlier, the Twin Cities picks up a tenth (.10) of an inch of snow.

1908: Tornadoes hit the counties of Martin and Blue Earth.

_______________________________________________

Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
May 24th

Average High: 72F (Record: 95F set in 2010)
Average Low: 51F (Record: 32F set in 1925)
Average Precipitation: 0.11" (Record: 2.58" set in 2012)
Average Snowfall: 0.0" (Record: 0.1" in 1925)
________________________________________________

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
May 24th

Sunrise: 5:35 AM
Sunset: 8:46 PM

*Length Of Day: 15 hours, 10 minutes and 51 seconds
*Daylight Gained Since Yesterday: ~1 mins & 53 secs

*Next Sunrise That Is Before 5:30 AM: June 1st (5:29 AM)
*Next Sunset That Is After 9 PM: June 13th (9:01 pm)

________________________________________________
 
Minnesota Weather Outlook
 
 
Highs will climb into the 80s once again Tuesday across most of Minnesota under mainly sunny skies. The coolest spots across the state will be across northern Minnesota, particularly along and near Lake Superior.
 
NAM forecast clouds and precipitation every three hours from 7 am Tuesday through 7 am Wednesday.
 
Clouds will clear out as we head through the morning hours Tuesday, leading to another warm and spectacular day across the region. A few storms are possible across northern Minnesota heading into the evening hours. Across southern Minnesota, we'll be watching storms moving into the region as we head toward the Wednesday morning hours.
 
 
Of course, the main story this week across Minnesota will be heavy rainfall. One of our models - the GFS - is forecasting a good 2-3" of rain through Friday as moisture streams in from the south. Even though we will see a break in the rain Tuesday, another batch of heavy rain will move in for Wednesday. That's certainly not the end of it, though - while some scattered showers/storms will be around Thursday, another storm system will move in for Friday into Saturday with the potential of more heavy rain.
 
 
Looking at a few of our extended models, there will be the potential of 2-4" of rain across the Twin Cities by the time we get through Memorial Day.
 
 
The chance of storms will also bring a marginal threat of severe weather both Tuesday and Wednesday across portions of the state. The marginal threat is highlighted in the dark green area in the graphic above - Tuesday over southern Minnesota (during the overnight hours) and Wednesday across much of the state.
 
________________________________________________
 
National Forecast Outlook
 

With moisture streaming north in the central United States, we'll be watching numerous showers and storms as we head through the next few days - some of which could be strong to severe - across this part of the county. Elsewhere, a storm will be pushing off the eastern seaboard Tuesday into Wednesday.

Rainfall potential through Friday. Green = 1"+, yellow = 2"+, orange = 3"+, red = 4"+.
 
The upper Midwest, along with parts of the south, will be the target for the heaviest of rain through Friday across the nation. 2-4"+ of rain could fall in areas near Omaha, Kansas City and Dallas as we head toward the Memorial Day weekend.
 
 
Another afternoon and evening of severe weather is expected Tuesday with a couple areas of the central U.S. that the Storm Prediction Center says has an Enhanced threat of severe storms (in orange). The main threat from these storms will be very large hail, but damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible as well.
________________________________________________
 

SCS = Severe Convective Storms.
________________________________________________
 
 
"D.C.’s worst May ever" - That's how Jason Samenow of the Capital Weather Gang describes the weather in the D.C. area so far this May. Read more: "So far this May, D.C. has had a record number of rainy days (19 of 23) and the coolest high temperatures since 1882. This May’s afternoon highs are running an incredible 15 degrees cooler than last May’s. And we still haven’t hit 80 degrees." (Graphic: Iowa Environmental Mesonet)
________________________________________________
 

From Time.com: Head distiller Caley Shoemaker is pictured a the Hangar 1 distillery on Alameda, named for a building on the old naval air base where it was founded. Credit: Sam Kweskin
 
Vodka... from Fog? Now here's a new one: a distillery in the San Francisco Bay Area is now making vodka from fog. More from Time: "Vodka can be made from almost anything and often is. There’s potato-based vodka. Wheat-based vodka. Grape-based vodka. There’s even vodka made from milk and honey. But Bay Area-based Hangar 1 distillery has taken this potable art to a level of elaborate novelty that makes $4 pieces of toast boring by comparison: their team has produced a limited-edition batch of vodka made from actual San Francisco fog."

________________________________________________

Thanks for checking in and have a great Tuesday! Don't forget you can follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) or on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!

- D.J. Kayser