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Paul Douglas on Weather

No change. Still hot, sticky and a little thundery through the weekend

Monsoonal Sky

Thanks to Randy Musil for this beautiful picture out of Surprise, AZ as a few monsoonal showers and storms were present in the evening sky a few nights ago. Great picture!

Summer's last gasp?
By Todd Nelson

I have to admit, I love summer. Don't get me wrong, the heat and humidity can get to any person, but it's nice to be able to walk outside and not have to be bundled up like Ralphie's brother, Randy, in the movie "A Christmas Story".

Shade and A/C is a person's best friend on a day like today. Suddenly, shaved ice or ice cold lemonade sounds more refreshing than a pork chop on a stick, doesn't it? Oh, don't worry, I'll still likely stuff my face with all my favorites at the Fair. It's a must! I only do it once a year.

Our sweaty September weather continues through the weekend with feels like temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Dewpoints near 70 degrees will have you glistening even after a fresh shower. Enjoy it while you can (if you like this stuff) because fall-like weather is on the way next week!

A large trough of low pressure will slowly slide our way through the weekend, increasing thunder chances each day. Best chance of storms will be in far northwestern MN late Friday but that thunder risk increases for everybody PM Saturday and Sunday. A few strong storms and locally heavy downpours will remind you of mid summer.
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FRIDAY: Hello July! Hot and sticky. High: 89. Winds: SE 10-15 mph

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low: 72. Winds: SSE 5-10mph

SATURDAY: Find some A/C. PM storms, mainly northern MN. Feels Like: 95F. High: 90. Winds: S 10-15 mph.

SUNDAY: Last hot day. Strong storm possible late. Wake-up: 72. High: 86

LABOR DAY: Soggy AM, fresh PM breeze. Wake-up: 64. High: 79

TUESDAY: Back to school. Cooler start, PM thunder south. Wake-up: 58. High: 76.

WEDNESDAY: Clearing and cooler. Wake-up: 57. High: 72.

THURSDAY: More sun. Wake-up: 53. High: 70.
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This Day in Weather History
September 4th

1992: Early morning storms resulted in 3/4 to 1 3/4 inch hail in Hennepin, Dakota, Rice and Goodhue Counties.

1941: A late batch of tornadoes hit Minneapolis, New Brighton, and White Bear Lake, killing six people.

1925: The third consecutive day of 95 degrees or above in the Minneapolis area.
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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
September 4th

Average High: 76F (Record: 98F set in 1925)
Average Low: 58F (Record: 39F set in 1974)
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
September 4th

Sunrise: 6:38am
Sunset: 7:45pm

*Daylight lost since yesterday: ~3 minutes and 1 second
*Daylight lost since summer solstice (June 21st): ~2 hours and 30 minutes
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Moon Phase for September 4th at Midnight
0.1 Day Before Last Quarter


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Minneapolis Temperature Trend

Sweaty September weather continues through the weekend with highs still well above average on the high and low side. High dewpoints will make it feel more like the low/mid 90s through Sunday before a cold front pushes through with possibly strong thunderstorms. Note the cooler weather post-front next week. The first FULL week of September will feel more like fall.


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8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook suggests that much of the Upper Midwest will have cooler than average temperatures by midmonth. For those of you that like the hot, sticky weather now, enjoy it because it'll likely feel like fall in a few short days!


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Friday Weather Outlook

Friday will, no doubt, be a very warm day for September. Highs will approach 90F with dewpoints in the upper 60s and lower 70s, it'll feel more like the low to mid 90s! Find some A/C!!

Friday Weather Outlook

Wind conditions on Friday will also be a bit breezy, especially across western Minnesota and the Dakotas. Note that wind gusts there could be near 20mph+. The reason for the gusty winds is the approaching storm system, which will keep us hot, sticky and somewhat unsettled through the weekend.

Friday Weather Outlook

The first round of thunderstorms will push into far northwestern Minnesota late Friday with a few strong/severe storms possible and potential even some locally heavy rain. Much of the rest of the state will remain dry, hot and humid.


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Severe Threat Friday

The approaching storm system will bring a round of strong to possibly severe storms to parts of the Red River Valley late Friday. This will likely be the first round of many to push through the region this weekend. For now, the Storm Prediction Center has far northwestern Minnesota under a SLIGHT Risk of severe weather...

...SUMMARY... ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING GUSTS MAY OCCUR FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND PARTS OF MINNESOTA TODAY.

Saturday Severe Threat

The storm sytem will creep a little closer on Saturday with more widely scattered showers and storms late afternoon/overnight. Some of the storms shaded in dark green could be strong to possibly severe with some locally heavy rainfall... Stay tuned.

Severe Threat Sunday

...SUMMARY... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY... NRN ROCKIES TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS EARLY IN THE DAY3 PERIOD AS 65KT 500MB SPEED MAX EJECTS ACROSS WY INTO CNTRL ND BY 07/00Z. HIGH PLAINS SFC FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS TO A POSITION NEAR THE DAKOTAS/MN BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS ND AT DAYBREAK SATURDAY...POTENTIALLY MORE ROBUST CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT FROM ERN NEBRASKA...NWD INTO NRN MN. ALTHOUGH STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD LAG THE COLD FRONT SOMEWHAT...IT APPEARS ADEQUATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION THAT EVOLVES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. NAM IS CONSIDERABLY MORE MOIST/BUOYANT THAN GFS...ROUGHLY DOUBLE...WITH SUBSTANTIAL SBCAPE...IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG...ACROSS THE MRGL RISK AREA. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION...AND STRONGEST SHEAR/FORCING SOMEWHAT LAGGING THE SFC FRONT...WILL ONLY INTRODUCE 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR HAIL/WIND WITH TSTMS THAT DEVELOP.

Rainfall Potential

The rainfall potential below (through midday Sunday) shows some of the heaviest across far northwestern Minnesota. However, rounds of strong thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall will still be possible through the end of the weekend through much of the rest of the region.

5 Day Rainfall Outlook

Here's the 5 day rainfall outlook, which suggests that some of the heaviest rainfall through the weekend/early next week will be found across central/northern Minnesota. Several rounds of strong thunderstorms could possibly pump out close to 1" to 3" of rain...


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National Weather Outlook

Here's NOAA's weather outlook, which shows a blob of rain along the international border through early the early weekend. Rounds of heavy rain/thunder could make for some locally heavy rain amounts over the next 3 to 5 days.

5 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's WPC, the 5 day rainfall forecast suggests some of the heaviest rainfall potential from Montana to Minnesota into Canada with as much as 1" to 3"+ possible through early next week.


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500mb Outlook

The image below shows an impressive ridge of high pressure over the eastern two-thirds of the country on Friday, which is responsible for our current hot, sticky weather. Note the area of low pressure in the Pacific Northwest. This will be responsible for more fall-like weather conditions as we head into the first FULL week of September next week.

High Temperatures from Average on Friday

The map below corresponds to the 500mb map above. Note that the trough of low pressure and the ridge of high pressure (above) tend to mimic that of the cooler than average highs in the western U.S., while the ridge of high pressure tends to mimic that of the warmer than average highs in the eastern two-thirds of the country.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

Here's a wider view of the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook from NOAA's CPC. Note that by midmonth, much of the middle U.S. will likely see below average temperatures, while those along the coastal communities will have above average readings.


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Active Pacific Continues

The Pacific remains active with 4 ongoing storms! From left to right, Kilo, Ignacio, Jimena and Kevin. The good news is that none of these storms will pose any major threat to any major landmass.

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Hurricane Jimena

Hurricane Jimean continued in the Pacific Ocean late Thursday as a category 2 hurricane. The good news is that this storm will continue to drift northwest of the Hawaiian Islands.

Tropical Storm Kevin

Here's newly formed Tropical Storm Kevin in the Pacific Ocean.

What is El Nino Anyway?

You may have heard a lot of talk about El Nino lately, but what exactly is El Nino? NOAA has a great article, which was posted earlier this Spring:

"1.) El Niño:  A warming of the ocean surface, or above-average sea surface temperatures (SST), in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.  Over Indonesia, rainfall tends to become reduced while rainfall increases over the tropical Pacific Ocean.  The low-level surface winds, which normally blow from east to west along the equator (“easterly winds”), instead weaken or, in some cases, start blowing the other direction (from west to east or “westerly winds”).
2.) La Niña: A cooling of the ocean surface, or below-average sea surface temperatures (SST), in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.  Over Indonesia, rainfall tends to increase while rainfall decreases over the central tropical Pacific Ocean.  The normal easterly winds along the equator become even stronger.
3.) Neutral:  Neither El Niño or La Niña. Often tropical Pacific SSTs are generally close to average.  However, there are some instances when the ocean can look like it is in an El Niño or La Niña state, but the atmosphere is not playing along (or vice versa)."

Read more HERE:

El Nino and it's Impacts on Northern California

Here's a video from the National Weather Service out of Sacremento, CA that explains how El Nino could impact nothern California:

See the video HERE:


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Thanks for checking in and have a great rest of your week and weekend ahead! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

Hot, sticky sun ahead. Feels like temps in the low/mid 90s

Rainfall Monday through AM Tuesday

Scattered thunderstorms moved through the southern Minnesota Tuesday through AM Wednesday with some heavy pockets of rain, especially across the southwest of the Minnesota River Valley. There were also a few heavy pockets in Northwestern Wisconsin.

Wednesday's Stubborn Sunshine

Thanks to lingering thunderstorms in Wisconsin much of the Day Wednesday, low clouds were fairly persistent across central Minnesota, including in the Twin Cities. However, much of the rest of the state was sunny much of the day.

Clouds and Temps

Take a look at how the clouds impacted temperatures across the state on Wednesday. Temperatures in parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin were still in the 60s and 70s by mid-afternoon, while areas that had sunny skies were already in the mid/upper 80s. It's amazing what cloud cover can do to the temperature profile, isn't it?


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Dog Days of September
By Todd Nelson

Welcome to the hazy, lazy days of September! Did you miss it? If it wasn't for all the school sales and supplies in local stores, I probably would have forgotten what time of the year it is!

It seems inevitable that we somehow always sneak in a warm spell around the Minnesota State Fair, doesn't it? The great Minnesota sweat together is notorious for a few hot days, people watching and eating too much. BURP!

Weather conditions over the next few days will be reminiscent of the dog days of summer. With high temperatures approaching 90 degrees and dewpoints near 70 degrees, it'll feel more like the mid 90s. The hot, sticky sun will no doubt have you in search of the nearest A/C unit through the weekend.

A large storm system begins slowly sliding our way toward the weekend with several rounds of showers and storms on it's eastern flank. The northern half of the state looks soggier than the rest. However, strong storms could rumble through the rest of the state late Sunday as the main cold front blows through.

I have a nagging suspicion that this could be one of summer's last gasps. Try to enjoy it! We all what's right around the corner.
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THURSDAY: Hot sun, very sticky. DP: 70F Feels Like: 95F High: 91. Winds: SE 12mph

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear, warm and sticky. Low: 71. Winds: SSE 10mph

FRIDAY:Sweaty. Crank the A/C. High: 90. Winds: S 10-15 mph

SATURDAY:Sultry. Stray PM t-storm. Wake-up: 72. High: 89

SUNDAY: Last hot day. Strong storms possible late. Wake-up: 71. High: 87

LABOR DAY: Soggy AM, fresh PM breeze. Wake-up: 70. High: 79

TUESDAY: Back to school. Cooler. Rain south. Wake-up: 59. High: 75.

WEDNESDAY: Hello Fall! Rain southeast. Wake-up: 56. High: 70.
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This Day in Weather History
September 3rd

1989: An early afternoon thunderstorm dropped 1 3/4 inch hail in Stearns and Morrison Counties.

1980: An F2 tornado resulted in $2.5 million in property damage later an F3 touched down causing $25 million in damages in Stearns County.

1970: The record-setting hailstone fell that made Coffeyville, KS famous. It had a circumference of 17.5 inches and weighed 1.67 pounds.

1917: Earthquake felt from Staples to Brainerd.
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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
September 3rd

Average High: 77F (Record: 97F set in 1925) 
Average Low: 58F (Record:  32F set in 1974)
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
September 3rd

Sunrise: 6:37am
Sunset: 7:47pm

*Daylight lost since yesterday: ~3 minutes and 1 second
*Daylight lost since the summer solstice (June 21st): ~2 hours and 25 minutes
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Moon Phase for September 3rd at Midnight
1.1 Day Before First Quarter


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Minneapolis Temperature Trend

Our sweaty September continues over the next several days with temperatures running well above average. There a chance that some of us could hit 90F by the end of the week. Note that temperatures look to take a bit of a tumble back to near normal levels next week.

Here's a little excerpt from a recent Twin Cities National Weather Service Forecast Discussion on how rare this particular warm spell is:

THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK WARM AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. THE WARMTH IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...ESPECIALLY WHEN LOOKING AT THE LOW TEMPERATURES AT MSP. ONLY TWICE HAS THERE BEEN A 4-DAY STREAK IN SEPTEMBER OF LOW TEMPS 70DEG OR WARMER...AND CURRENTLY THAT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR THE 2ND THROUGH THE 5TH. THE PREVIOUS SEPTEMBER WARM SPELLS WERE IN 1931 (6 DAYS) AND 1960 (5 DAYS).

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook suggests a good chance of below average temperatures across much of the Upper Midwest by mid month. Stay tuned...


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Thursday Weather Outlook

Memories of summer will be with us once again on Thursday with highs approaching 90F in many spots. Note the near 100F reading in Pierre, SD!! Keep in mind that dewpoints will be very sticky in the 60s and 70s. Regardless if the actually temperature slides into the 90s or not, it will feel very much like the 90s with dewpoints as highs as they will be... Stay cool.

Thursday Weather Outlook

Wednesday's rainfall will continue to slowly push east into the Great Lakes on Thursday. Note that there will be more sun across the region, which will temp to push temperatures into the upper 80s to lower 90s by Thursday afternoon.

Thursday Weather Outlook

Winds on Thursday will be fairly light across the Upper Mississippi Valley with the exception of far western Minnesota and through the Dakotas where winds will be gusting to near 20mph.

Rainfall Potential

The rainfall potential through midday Saturday starting to push into far northwestern Minnesota as our next system approaches from the west. It'll be a slow mover, so rainfall tallies could add up through the rest of the weekend/into early next week with daily rounds of showers and storms possible.


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Severe Threat Friday

As our next slow moving storm system approaches from the west, a few strong/severe storms can't be ruled out late Friday across far northwestern Minnesota. The Storm Prediction has parts of the Red River Valley under a Marginal Threat... stay tuned.

Severe Threat Saturday

Saturday could be a little more unsettled across the Upper Mississippi Valley, especially late in the day. The Storm Prediction Center has much of Minnesota under a Marginal Threat... stay tuned.

National Weather Outlook

The national weather outlook through PM Thursday shows appreciative moisture moving into the western half of the country, especially along the international border. This slow moving front will have the capability of heavy rainfall potential and a few strong to severe storms over the next several days.

5 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's WPC, the 5 day rainfall forecast suggests nearly 1" to 3"+ rainfall potential from parts of Montana through the Upper Midwest and into Canada. Meanwhile, monsoonal moisture will continue to lift north out of the Four Corners Region and tropical moisture will continue over Florida.

National Weather Outlook

Here's a neat looking picture from the National Weather Service's Facebook page, which shows a fairly intense trough of low pressure over the western third of the country by Saturday. Keep in mind that this particular low pressure system has had a hand in pushing the large hot dome across much of the eastern two-thirds of the country over the last several days.


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Highs From Average Saturday

In association with the the map above, surface temperatures on Saturday will be quite a bit below average in the western half of the country as the trough of low pressure swings through, while surface temperatures in the eastern half of the country will be warmer than average underneath the ridge.

A Cold Front Nears...

Here's the forecast heading into Sunday night/early Monday morning. Note the strong cold front moving through the Upper Midwest with widespread scattered showers and storms. This send temperatures into more fall-like levels as the front passes.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook, which takes us into mid September, suggests that cooler than average temperatures will be possible in the middle part of the country. However, coastal locations may still be dealing with above average temperatures.


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Active in the Pacific

The circulation may below from Earth.Nullschool shows a pretty impressive set of tropical system in the pacific. From left to right, Kilo, Ignacio, Jimena and TD-14 (likely to become Kevin) are in play here. Thanks to extremely warm water temperatures due to an El Nino year, tropical systems seem to be whipping up without any issue.


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Hurricane Jimena
Hurricane Jimena was still a category 2 hurricane on Wednesday evening (CDT) tracking north away from the Hawaiian Islands. The satellite loop below shows a solid center of circulation, but no defined eye wall.

 
Tracking Jimena
 
There's a big sigh of relief for those on the Hawaiian Islands again as this perviously strong hurricane continues to weaken and slide north into less favorable weather conditions.
 

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Not too Active in the Atlantic Basin
 
The image below from Earth.Nullschool.net shows the only active storm in the Atlantic Basin being Fred just west of Africa. Fred did become our 2nd hurricane of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season, but quickely weakened as it moved north.

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"Rest in Peace on the Moon for $12,000" ??

Well here a crazy story... Any chance you or someone you know would want to put on the moon when you die? A Celestial funeral firm called Elysium Space is now offering a "Lunar Memorial"!

"Many people dream of travelling to the moon, but if all else fails, they can now be laid to rest there. Celestial funeral firm Elysium Space is now offering a "Lunar Memorial," in which your cremated remains are privately dispatched to the moon. But it'll cost you—the early bird rate starts at $9,950 for the first 50 participants, but costs $11,950 thereafter."

Read more from CNBC.com HERE:

(Image courtesty: Elysium Space)


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Thanks for checking in and have a great rest of your week! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX