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Slushy start for some on Sunday. Colder this week

Big Snow on the Big Island

Hawaii's highest peak could get up to another foot of snow Sunday, on top of the 2 feet that have fallen since Thursday, the National Weather Service says. A winter storm warning is in effect for the summits of Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea through Saturday evening. “Then we’re expecting another round on Sunday and Sunday night,” said Matthew Foster, a staff meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Honolulu. Snow on the peaks is not uncommon in the colder months of the year, though deep snow is rare. “We’ll probably see three to five snow events a year during the cold season. Some years we might not get any, some years we might get more,” said Foster. The only other area of Hawaii that gets snow with any regularity is the Haleakalā volcano on Maui, which at about 10,000 feet gets snow once every five years or so, he said."

See more from USA Today HERE:

"In this image made from webcam video provided by Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope, the CFHT telescope on the summit of Mauna Kea on Hawaii's Big Island is covered in snow on Thursday, Dec. 1, 2016. The National Weather Service in Honolulu has issued a winter storm warning for the summits of Hawaii's Big Island as wind and snow engulf the high peaks. (Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope via AP)"

Pacific Moisture Moves into the Pacific Northwest

Here's the Eastern Pacific precipitable water loop that shows heavier moisture from the Pacific moving into the West Coast in a few different waves. These rounds of heavier moisture have been responsible for heavier coastal rains and high elevation snow. Another one of these storms is moving through the Pacific Northwest now with heavier snow possible through early next week.

Another Surge of Heavier Pacific Moisture

Here's a look at the next storm system moving through the region through the early part of next week. Note that areas along the coast and in the lower elevations will likely see rain, while those in the higher elevations will see snow. Some spots could see 1ft to 2ft by early next week.

Winter Weather Headlines

 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THRU 11 AM MST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MISSOULA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM MST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * IMPACTS/TIMING: SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR TONIGHT AND SNOW INTENSITIES WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND WIND, VISIBILITY COULD BE GREATLY REDUCED, ESPECIALLY OVER MARIAS PASS. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS IS LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT. ALL OF THESE IMPACTS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY: 10 TO 14 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MARIAS PASS. * WINDS: GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MILE PER HOUR POSSIBLE FOR MARIAS PASS.

Snow in the Northwest

Here's the snowfall potential through midday Tuesday, which shows fairly significant tallies across the Cascade range and across much of the northern Rockies. Some spots could see up to 1ft. to 2ft. through early next week.

National Snow Cover

According to NOAA's NOHRSC, 25.8% of the nation was covered up in snow as of December 3rd. Last year at this time, 33.4% of the nation was covered up by snow!

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Upcoming Heavy Rain in the South
 
Take a look at the heavy potential across the southern US through the end of the weekend! Widespread heavy rainfall could lead to areas of flooding over the next few days, especially over eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley. Not only will heavy rain be possible, but a few strong to severe storms may be possible into early next week as well.
 
 
Heavy Southern Rain
 
Here's a look at the heavy rain potential through PM Sunday. Note that some spots in the eastern part of Texas and into the Lower Mississippi Valley could see up to 3" to 6"+ rainfall.
 
Flooding Concerns in Texas
 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING... THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR * PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...JACKSON...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON... CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES... HARRIS...HOUSTON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA... MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER... WASHINGTON AND WHARTON. * THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING * A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TRIGGERING PERIODS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. AS GROUNDS BECOME MORE SATURATED...THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL PROGRESSIVELY INCREASE WHERE TRAINING HEAVIER CELLS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED ALONG THE COAST ON SATURDAY...AND THAT WILL BE THE HIGHEST RISK LOCATION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY. WHERE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED IT IS MOST IMPORTANT TO FOCUS ON SHORT TERM RAINFALL RATES RATHER THAN TOTALS THEMSELVES. EVEN SHORT BURSTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AT THOSE LOCATIONS. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE THINGS...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS IN THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE GULF WILL DELAY DRAINAGE OF WATER. * STREET FLOODING AND FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT TONIGHT. AS OF SATURDAY EVENING...AREA RIVERS...STREAMS AND BAYOUS WERE WITHIN BANKS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

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Snow Depth Comparison 2016 vs 2015

Here's a look at the snow depth comparison from now to this time last year. Note that there is only a little snow left across parts of western and northern MN from the storm system a couple of weeks ago. Last year at this time, much of the state had a least a little bit of snow. The Twin Cites officially had 3" of snow on the ground as of December 2nd, 2015.

MN Snow Depth & Ranking

Here's a look at the snow depth across the state as of Thursday, December 1st. Note that much of the heavy snow that fell across western and northern MN a couple of weeks ago has since melted due to the ongoing mild weather through the end of November.

Each Thursday during the cold season, the State Climatology Office produces maps depicting the snow depth across Minnesota. Additionally, maps are created that depict snow depth ranking for the date. The data are provided by volunteers working with DNR Forestry, the National Weather Service, the University of Minnesota, Soil and Water Conservation Districts and CoCoRaHS.

 
Trail Conditions 
 
Here's another nice product from the MN State Climatology office, which shows updated groomed trail conditions across the state. Note that with very little snow conditions across the state, many trails are either closed or in poor condition. 
 
 

3rd Wettest January - November on Record for the Twin Cities

Year to date precipitation through December 1st saw 38.18" of precipitation in the Twin Cities, which is 8.69". According to the Twin Cities NWS, the first 11 months of 2016 have been the 3rd wettest in history! Interestingly, Waseca set a new annual state precip record with 54.13" and the year isn't over yet!

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Somewhat Active Pattern With Colder Temps Ahead.

Here's the weather outlook from Saturday to Saturday of next weekend. Note that we seem to have a few shots of light precipitation across the region with perhaps a better chance of snow next weekend. The big story will be the MUCH colder weather funneling into the region by the 2nd half of the week. This will be some of the coldest air of the season with highs dipping to well below normal temps for a several day period.

 
5 Day Precipitation Outlook
 
The 5 day precipitation outlook through the end of next week suggests fairly light precipitation amounts across the Upper Midwest. The heaviest moisture looks to be found along the international border and across the Middle Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley and parts of the Great Lakes Region. 
 
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Slushy start for some on Sunday. Colder this week

It's been a strange year. Globally, we are well on our way to having the warmest year on record, which will beat the previous record set last year.

Regionally, the desert SouthEAST has been dealing with extreme and exceptional drought conditions, which was recently marked by the deadly fires near Gatlinburg, TN. Thank goodness more heavy rain is on the way this week as some of those areas still need 12 to 18 inches of rain to end the drought there.

Locally, the Twin Cities has seen its 3rd wettest 11 month period on record, running nearly 8.5 inches above average in the precipitation category since January 1st. Get this, as of November 30th, Waseca, MN has seen 54.13 inches of liquid, which is a new state annual precipitation record! Good grief.

Some wake up to a slushy coating Sunday as a quick moving clipper slides east. Temps warm to near 40 degrees on Monday with a few light rain showers late. Cold air breaks loose later this week with single digit wind chills for most.

Weather maps finally look like DecemBRRR!
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Extended Weather Outlook

SATURDAY NIGHT: Snow develops, 1" to 2" of slush possible by daybreak. Winds: SSE 5. Low: 31.

SUNDAY: Light rain/snow mix early. Winds: WSW 5. High: 37.

SUNDAY NIGHT:  Mostly cloudy. Winds: WSW 5. Low: 28

MONDAY: Mild. Peeks of AM sun. Few PM showers. Winds: SSE 5-15. High: 42

TUESDAY: Breezy. A few wind-whipped flakes up north. Winds: W 10-20. Wake-up: 26. High: 30

WEDNESDAY: Brisk wind, scattered flurries. Winds: W 10-20. Wake-up: 13. High: 19

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy and colder. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 11. High: 19.

FRIDAY: Brighter skies. Less wind, still cold. Winds: NW 5-10. Wake-up: 8. High: 17.

SATURDAY: Increasing clouds, chance of snow. Winds: E-15. Wake-up: 8. High: 20.
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This Day in Weather History
December 4th

1886: Minneapolis hits a record-setting 15 degrees below zero..
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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
December 4th

Average High: 31F (Record: 56F set in 1941)
Average Low: 16F (Record: -15F set in 1886)

Record Snowfall: 4.2" set in 1947
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
December 4th

Sunrise: 7:34am
Sunset: 4:32pm

*Daylight Lost Since Yesterday: ~1mins & 18sec
*Daylight Lost Since Summer Solstice: ~6hours and 37mins
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Moon Phase for December 3rd at Midnight
3.1 Days Before First Quarter

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Weather Outlook Sunday

High temps on Sunday will still be running above average levels with many locations warming into the 30s. A few locations across the southern part of the state may be close to 40F.

 
High Temperatures From Average Sunday
 
Here's a look at high temperatures from average on Sunday. Note that many locations will be nearly 5F to 10F above average. Temps on Monday will be nearly 10F to 15F above average before the cold air plunges into the region for the 2nd half of the week when we'll be nearly 10F to 15F below average. 
 

Weather Outlook Sunday

Winds will pick up just a little on Sunday as our weak system rolls through the region. Note that winds will be sustained up to near 10mph with gusts approaching 15mph to near 20mph across western MN. 

Weather Outlook Sunday

As our weak system continues to move through the region on Sunday, a light/rain snow mix will begin to taper through the day.


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Simulated Radar
 
The simulated radar from Saturday to Tuesday shows our quick moving system moving through PM Saturday to Sunday with minor slushy snow accumulations. The next chance of moisture doesn't roll through until late Monday/AM Tuesday. It appears that we may start off as a little rain, but the colder air will pour in behind an Arctic front, which will turn any leftover moisture into snow through the rest of the week. 
 
 
Snowfall Potential

Here's a look a the snowfall potential through midday Tuesday, which shows VERY light snow chances across the region. It appears that most of us won't see any accumulations, but there could be up to 1" across MN's north shore and into central Wisconsin.

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Extended Weather Outlook

The temperature outlook for Minneapolis into next weekend shows some big changes coming through the weather pipeline. Note the warming taking place through Monday, but a fairly significant whack of colder air settles in by the middle and end of next week with highs dipping into the 10s and 20s. Overnight lows will also dip into the single digits and 10s across much of the state. 

6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC, the 6 to 10 day temperature outlook suggests colder than average temperatures settling into the region as we continue through the first part of December. Note that this will likely be some of the coldest air of the season for many spots across the Upper Midwest. 

6 to 10 Day Temp Outlook

Here's the national temperature outlook from December 9th - December 13th, which shows a big chunk for colder than average temperatures settling into much of the nation. This will be one of the first big colder outbreaks of the season.... Are you ready!

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National Weather Outlook

The weather looks to be fairly active across the southern US as we head through the weekend. A large blob of Gulf of Mexico moisture will begin settling into the South-central US with areas of heavy rainfall and scattered storms, some possibly strong to severe into early next week. Meanwhile, heavier moisture in the form of coastal rain and high elevation snow will move into the Pacific Northwest.

 
5 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's WPC, the 5 day precipitation outlook suggests significant moisture across the southern US through the middle part of next week. Widespread 2" to 4" (isolated 3" to 6") can't be ruled out. This may lead to areas of flooding, but this additional heavy rain will be very beneficial for the drought conditions in the Southeast.

US Drought Monitor

Here's the updated drought monitor from Thursday, December 1st, which shows widespread extreme to exceptional drought conditions across much of the Southeast. While heavy rainfall last week helped some, we need more, so the upcoming heavy rainfall through the first full week of December (next week) is good news!

Rainfall Needed to End Drought

The product below suggests how much rainfall is needed to end the drought. Note that many spots need nearly a foot of rain or more to end the drought. These are the areas that are in an extreme to exceptional drought!

National Snowfall Outlook

Here's the potential snowfall through the the middle part of December, which shows the POTENTIAL of heavier snow developing across the northern tier of the nation over the next couple of weeks. This would be a big change from what we had during much of November as it was a generally quiet and warm month across the nation.

 

 
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Drought Update

According to the US Drought Monitor, 55% of the nation of considered to be abnormally dry, while 17% of the country is in a severe drought, 8% is in an extreme drought and nearly 3% is in an exceptional drought. This is a little worse than it was a week ago. The good news is that we've recently gotten into a more active pattern, so hopefully we'll see some improvement in drought conditions across parts of the nation.

 
 
 
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"An ‘Unprecedented’ 102 Million Trees Have Died In California’s Drought-Stricken Forests"
 
"In California’s drought-stricken forests, trees are dying at an “unprecedented” rate, according to officials. The U.S. Forest Service said last month that 102 million trees have died across the state since 2010, including 62 million dead trees in 2016 alone. And the die-off is showing no signs of slowing. “Millions of additional trees are weakened and expected to die in the coming months and years,” said the Forest Service. “The scale of die-off in California is unprecedented in our modern history,” Randy Moore, a forester with the agency, told the Los Angeles Times. Trees are dying “at a rate much quicker than we thought.”"
 
 
(US FOREST SERVICE In 2016 alone, 62 million trees died in California’s forests, said the U.S. Forest Service. This represents more than a 100 percent increase in dead trees across the state since 2015.)

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"Dozens of Earthquakes Rattle a Chilean Volcano, Raising Alerts"
 
"THE ONEMI (Oficina Nacional de Emergencias) and SERNGEOMIN (Chilean Geological Survey) in Chile raised the alert status for the area around Cerro Hudson in the southern Andes. Normally, raising the alert status like this is due to an acute change, when the behavior of the volcano shifts suddenly. However, this time, the elevation to Yellow alert status at Cerro Hudson is due to accumulated events over the past month. Dozens of small earthquakes have occurred since the start of November, none stronger than M3.2. But their location (in geographic space and depth) are similar to those before the last eruption of Hudson in 2011. The number of earthquakes hasn’t increased much above the baseline activity at an active volcano like Hudson, but energy released by the largest earthquakes has been increasing over the past few months. Combine that with the fact that the earthquakes have the character of those associated with magma movement, and the SERNAGEOMIN and ONEMI decided to treat Hudson with an abundance of caution, setting up a 3.5 kilometer exclusion zone around the volcano."
 
 
(Dead trees in the River Ibanez valley killed by ash from the Cerro Hudson eruption in 2011.JOHN WARBURTON-LEE/GETTY IMAGES)

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"Russian Cargo Spacecraft May Be Lost in Space"
 
"An uncrewed, robotic Progress spacecraft experienced problems en route to the International Space Station  Russia's space agency, Roscosmos, launched a new cargo ship to the International Space Station today (Dec. 1), but the fate of the robotic supply ship is unclear after issues cropped up during its trip into space. The unmanned Progress 65 spacecraft blasted off atop a Russian Soyuz-U rocket at 9:51 a.m. EST (1451 GMT) from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan on a mission to deliver more than 2.5 tons (2.3 metric tons) of food, equipment and other supplies to the space station. It was expected to arrive at the space station on Saturday (Dec. 3). [Watch: NASA Explains Status of Progress 65 Spacecraft] But while the initial moments of the flight went as planned, flight controllers at Russia's mission control center near Moscow detected "ratty telemetry" as the Soyuz booster's third stage was firing."
 
 
(After problems during launch a robotic Progress spacecraft, similar to this one photographed approaching the International Space Station in June, may be lost in space. Credit: NASA)

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Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

Mild through Monday. First Cold Blast Next Week

3rd Wettest January - November on Record for the Twin Cities

Year to date precipitation through December 1st saw 38.18" of precipitation in the Twin Cities, which is 8.69". According to the Twin Cities NWS, the first 11 months of 2016 have been the 3rd wettest in history! Interestingly, Waseca set a new annual state precip record with 54.13" and the year isn't over yet!

Green Grass in December?

Welcome to meteorological winter... I know that calendar says December, but it sure doesn't look like it. For goodness Pete, my grass is green! I should stir things up and fire up the lawn mower... freak out the neighbors a little.

Ely MN

The picture below is from Ely, MN on Friday, which still shows a little snow on the ground from the big storm system that moved through a couple of weeks ago. 

Snow Depth Comparison 2016 vs 2015

Here's a look at the snow depth comparison from now to this time last year. Note that there is only a little snow left across parts of western and northern MN from the storm system a couple of weeks ago. Last year at this time, much of the state had a least a little bit of snow. The Twin Cites officially had 3" of snow on the ground as of December 2nd, 2015.

MN Snow Depth & Ranking

Here's a look at the snow depth across the state as of Thursday, December 1st. Note that much of the heavy snow that fell across western and northern MN a couple of weeks ago has since melted due to the ongoing mild weather through the end of November.

Each Thursday during the cold season, the State Climatology Office produces maps depicting the snow depth across Minnesota. Additionally, maps are created that depict snow depth ranking for the date. The data are provided by volunteers working with DNR Forestry, the National Weather Service, the University of Minnesota, Soil and Water Conservation Districts and CoCoRaHS.

 
Trail Conditions 
 
Here's another nice product from the MN State Climatology office, which shows updated groomed trail conditions across the state. Note that with very little snow conditions across the state, many trails are either closed or in poor condition. 
 
 
 
National Snow Cover

According to NOAA's NOHRSC, 28.6% of the nation was covered up in snow as of December 2nd. Last year at this time, 34.7% of the nation was covered up by snow!

 

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Somewhat Active Pattern With Colder Temps Ahead.

Here's the weather outlook from Saturday to Friday of next week. Note that we seem to have a few shots of light precipitation across the region, but at this point, nothing major is brewing. The big story will be the MUCH colder weather funneling into the region by the 2nd half of the week. This will be some of the coldest air of the season with highs dipping to well below normal temps for a several day period.

 
5 Day Precipitation Outlook
 
The 5 day precipitation outlook through the middle part of next week suggests fairly light precipitation amounts across the Upper Midwest. The heaviest moisture looks to be found across the Ohio Valley and parts of the Great Lakes Region. 
 
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Mild through Monday. First Cold Blast Next Week

Welcome to Meteorological Winter... I know the calendar says December, but it sure doesn't look like it. For goodness Pete, my grass is green! I should stir things up a little and fire up the lawn mower, freak out the neighbors a little.

After the 2nd warmest November on record and the warmest October through November on record for the Twin Cities, weather maps are starting to finally look a little more like winter. For the first time since 2013, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center is suggesting cooler than average temperatures across the entire Lower 48 and Alaska at the end of next week! This surge of Arctic air will be some of the coldest air of the season for most across the nation. Ice anglers will be happy as we will finally start seeing skim ice on area lakes. Yes, we're on our way! Now we just need snow for skiers and snowmobilers.

No worries Saturday. Temps will be near average with a little light rain/snow mix moving in Saturday night and Sunday. Temps on Monday warm into the 40s before our first real whack of winter chill.

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Extended Weather Outlook

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy, no travel problems. Winds: S 5-10. High: 34

SATURDAY NIGHT: Chance of light snow late. Winds: S 5-10. Low: 30.

SUNDAY: Chance of a light/rain snow mix early. Winds: WSW 5. High: 38

MONDAY: Peeks of AM sun. Few PM showers. Winds: SSW 5-15. Wake-up: 28. High: 42

TUESDAY: Brisk wind, lingering light snow. Winds: WNW 10-20. Wake-up: 28. High: 28

WEDNESDAY: Cold. A few wind-whipped flurries. Winds: W 10-20. Wake-up: 12. High: 19

THURSDAY: Chilly breeze continues. Light snow. Winds: WNW 10-20+ Wake-up: 10. High: 20 (teens for much of Minnesota).

FRIDAY: Less wind. Peeks of PM Sun. Winds: NW 5-10. Wake-up: 16. High: 24.
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This Day in Weather History
December 3rd

1998: Albert Lea soars to a record-setting 67 degrees.
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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
December 3rd

Average High: 31F (Record: 62F set in 1962)
Average Low: 17F (Record: -19F set in 1940)

Record Snowfall: 7.4" set in 1934
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
December 3rd

Sunrise: 7:33am
Sunset: 4:32pm

*Daylight Lost Since Yesterday: ~1mins & 22sec
*Daylight Lost Since Summer Solstice: ~6hours and 36mins
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Moon Phase for December 3rd at Midnight
3.1 Days Before First Quarter

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Weather Outlook Saturday

High temps on Saturday will still be running slightly above average levels with many locations warming into the 30s. A few locations across the far north and Arrowhead region will likely hover in the upper 20s to near 30F, which will still be above average by a few degrees.

 
High Temperatures From Average Saturday
 
Here's a look at high temperatures from average on Saturday and note that many locations across the state of MN will still be running above average. Note that the Red River Valley will be nearly 10F above average! Enjoy the 'warmth' while you can, MUCH cooler weather will be moving in next week.
 

Weather Outlook Saturday

Winds will not be an issue on during the day Saturday, but they will be a little stronger across far western MN with sustained winds near 10mph with gusts up to 15-20mph! This will be ahead of a weak clipper system that will bring a light rain/snow mix to the region late Saturday into Sunday. 

Weather Outlook Saturday

No weather issues are expected during the day Saturday as mostly cloudy skies continue with a few peeks of sun. However, a quick moving clipper system will slide into the region late Saturday/Sunday with a light rain/snow mix.


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Simulated Radar
 
The simulated radar from Saturday to Monday shows mostly quiet weather across the region early Saturday, but a quick moving clipper will bring us a quick shot of a light rain/snow mix late Saturday into Sunday.
 
 
Snowfall Potential

Here's a look a the snowfall potential through PM Monday, which shows VERY light snow chances across the region. It appears that most of us won't see any accumulations, but there could be up to 1" across MN's north shore and into central Wisconsin.

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Extended Weather Outlook

The temperature outlook for Minneapolis into next weekend shows some big changes coming through the weather pipeline. Note the warming taking place through Monday, but a fiarly significant whack of colder air settles in by the middle and end of next week with highs dipping into the 10s and 20s. Overnight lows will also dip into the single digits and 10s across much of the state. 

6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC, the 6 to 10 day temperature outlook suggests colder than average temperatures settling into the region as we continue through the first part of December. Note that this will likely be some of the coldest air of the season for many spots across the Upper Midwest. 

6 to 10 Day Temp Outlook

Here's the national temperature outlook from December 8th - December 12th, which shows a big chunk for colder than average temperatures settling into much of the nation. This will be one of the first big colder outbreaks of the season, so get ready!

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National Weather Outlook

The weather looks to be fairly active across the southern US as we head through the weekend. A large blob of Gulf of Mexico moisture will begin settling into the South-central US with areas of heavy rainfall and scattered storms, some possibly strong to severe into early next week. Meanwhile, heavier moisture in the form of coastal rain and high elevation snow will move into the Pacific Northwest.

 
5 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's WPC, the 5 day precipitation outlook suggests significant moisture across the southern US through the middle part of next week. Widespread 2" to 4" (isolated 4" to 8") can't be ruled out. This may lead to areas of flooding, but this additional heavy rain will be very beneficial for the drought conditions in the Southeast.

US Drought Monitor

Here's the updated drought monitor from Thursday, December 1st, which shows widespread extreme to exceptional drought conditions across much of the Southeast. While heavy rainfall last week helped some, we need more, so the upcoming heavy rainfall through the first full week of December (next week) is good news!

Rainfall Needed to End Drought

The product below suggests how much rainfall is needed to end the drought. Note that many spots need nearly a foot of rain or more to end the drought. These are the areas that are in an extreme to exceptional drought!

National Snowfall Outlook

Here's the potential snowfall through the the middle part of December, which shows the POTENTIAL of heavier snow developing across the northern tier of the nation over the next couple of weeks. This would be a big change from what we had during much of November as it was a generally quiet and warm month across the nation.

 

 
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Drought Update

According to the US Drought Monitor, 55% of the nation of considered to be abnormally dry, while 17% of the country is in a severe drought, 8% is in an extreme drought and nearly 3% is in an exceptional drought. This is a little worse than it was a week ago. The good news is that we've recently gotten into a more active pattern, so hopefully we'll see some improvement in drought conditions across parts of the nation.

 
Upcoming Heavy Rain in the South
 
Take a look at the heavy potential across the southern US through the end of the weekend! Widespread heavy rainfall could lead to areas of flooding over the next few days, especially over eastern Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley. Not only will heavy rain be possible, but a few strong to severe storms may be possible into early next week as well.
 
 
Heavy Southern Rain
 
Here's a look at the heavy rain potential through PM Sunday. Note that some spots in the eastern part of Texas and into the Lower Mississippi Valley could see up to 3" to 6"+ rainfall.
 
 
Santa Ana Winds Through PM Saturday
 
An area of high pressure settling into the Southwest is allowing the Santa Anas to blow. Take a look at the locally strong winds that will be in place over southern California through PM Saturday.
 
 
Santa Ana Wind Event Through PM Saturday
 
...STRONG AND DAMAGING SANTA ANA WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY... .A STRONG SANTA ANA WIND EVENT WILL AFFECT MOST OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING...THEN REMAIN STRONG TO DAMAGING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS WHERE DAMAGING PEAK GUSTS TO 80 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE VENTURA COUNTY VALLEYS WILL HAVE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHERE GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE NEAR FAVORED FOOTHILL LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY.
 

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"Earth’s temperature has not plunged at record clip and nationwide record cold not coming"

"Meteorologists and climatologists frequently confront bad information about their science on the Internet and elsewhere. It’s nothing new. But in the past week, particularly egregious claims emerged that have been perpetuated by outlets with large audiences."

These two dubious and deceptive assertions must be dismantled:

1) The global land temperature has just experienced its biggest drop on record.

2) Record cold is predicted for most of the U.S. next week.

"The Earth’s temperature has not crashed at a record pace. The misleading claim that global land temperatures have plunged by a record margin was first reported by David Rose of the Daily Mail last week, and it was amplified today in a piece by James Delingpole at Breitbart News. “Global average temperatures over land have plummeted by more than 1C since the middle of this year — their biggest and steepest fall on record,” Rose’s article begins. Yet it’s easy to explain why this assertion is not only misleading but also pointless. First, Rose’s claim relies on the satellite record of Earth’s temperature estimated from space, which only dates to 1978. The surface-temperature record, which directly measures the planet’s temperature using thermometers and dates to the late 1800s, exhibits a drop but not a record drop."

See more from WashingtonPost HERE:

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"Expect Climate Catastrophe: Paris Agreement Lacks Enforcement"
 
"Enforcement mechanisms for climate change targets are not being implemented, including in the Paris Agreement of December 2015. We are actually sliding backwards on this critical element of a global climate deal. Sanctions were agreed in 2001, that any developed countries that missed emission limits between 2008 and 2012 would have even steeper limits in the future. That has since lapsed. In 2011, all countries agreed that a climate agreement should have “legal force.” Legal force requires an enforcement mechanism, which the Paris Agreement lacks. The E.U. pushed hard for binding targets in the Paris Agreements, including international sanctions for noncompliance. Those did not come about. Bolivia called for an International Climate Justice Tribunal with the mandate to penalize countries for lack of compliance. There is no tribunal in the Paris Agreement. Rather, most developed and emerging economies have systematically resisted international enforcement mechanisms. China (the world’s biggest emissions producer), Russia, the U.S., Canada, India, Japan, Australia, and major energy exporters, resisted the toughest climate change countermeasures over the years, including international monitoring and sanctions. Some in these countries have bemoaned the loss of sovereignty from transparency and enforceable international climate deals. As a result, the 2°C limit in the Paris Agreement on climate change, which started this month, is unenforceable and therefore solely an aspiration if the world can achieve carbon neutrality by 2100. The way things are going, that is unlikely. The Paris Agreement is now among over 500 similarly powerless global and regional environmental agreements. President-elect Trump and other Republicans have dismissed global warming and the international coordination required to stop it. The countries most responsible for lagging in their pledges and policies since the Paris Agreement include Russia, Canada, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. The U.S., China, India, Brazil, and E.U. countries also lag in their pledges and policies to achieve a climate-neutral future. Those countries that most opposed enforcement, unsurprisingly, also lag in their policy measures to achieve the Paris goals."
 
 
{INNER MONGOLIA, CHINA - NOVEMBER 04: A Chinese labourer stands next to a cooling pit at an unauthorized steel factory on November 4, 2016 in Inner Mongolia, China. (Photo by Kevin Frayer/Getty Images)}

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"NOAA satellites go HD with GOES-R"
 
"Last week, NOAA engineers and satellite mission scientists had something extra to be thankful for: the successful launch of GOES-R on November 19. Providing more timely and accurate information over the Western hemisphere, total lightning mapping, and higher resolution images streaming down from space more often, the new mission marks the first major redesign of the nation’s operational Earth-observing technology in more than 20 years. A Rich History. NOAA’s Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) have served as the foundation of the nation’s near real-time weather and environmental monitoring system since the launch of GOES-1 in 1975. GOES-1 only viewed the Earth every 30 minutes. Our current GOES East and GOES West satellites were launched in 2006 and 2010 respectively, and while they’ve come a long way from the technology of the 70s, all you have to do is think of how much your cell phone has changed since 2006 and you can understand why our weather satellites were due for an upgrade. (Hint: The first generation iPhone came out in 2007). “We’ve been flying operational geostationary satellites for 41 years now, and for the last 22 years we’ve been flying the same basic instrument design,” said Steve Goodman, senior scientist for the GOES-R program. “This is the first major upgrade in 22 years.” GOES-R launched with six key instruments, with two pointing towards the Earth, two focused on the surrounding space environment, and two more keeping an eye on the sun.  For monitoring Earth’s weather climate research, it’s the two pointing towards Earth that are the most exciting."
 
 
(A United Launch Alliance Atlas V 541 lifts off with NASA's GOES-R satellite. GOES-R is the first of four satellites to be launched for NOAA in a new and advanced series of spacecraft. Once in geostationary orbit, it will be known as GOES-16. Taken on November 19, 2016. Credit: United Launch Alliance.)

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"NOAA: Record 11th Hurricane Season Ends Without Major Strike on U.S."
 
"As November 2016 ended, the United Sates completed a record 11 straight hurricane seasons without a major hurricane striking the U.S. mainland, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. An unprecedented 11 years, one month and seven days has passed since the last major hurricane struck the U.S. mainland, according to data going back to 1851compiled by NOAA. “The 2016 hurricane season will end officially on November 30. Hurricane Wilma was the last major hurricane (on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale) to strike the U.S. (October 24, 2005),” NOAA spokesman Dennis Feltgen told CNSNews.com. Major hurricanes, defined on the scale as a Category 3 or above, are characterized by wind speeds of 111 mph or higher and strong storm surges capable of causing “devastating” or “catastrophic” damage. “It is important to note that this scale covers only the wind impact,” Feltgen noted. “It has nothing to do with the water impact, which accounts for nearly 90 percent of the fatalities - 50 percent of which occur from storm surge and 25 percent from inland flooding."
 
 
(Image credit: NOAA)

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Homesick For Minnesota Candle
 
Looking for a good XMAS present? How about these homesick candles. There's one for every state! Here's Minnesotas:
 
"Takes you back to The North Star State, with scents reminiscent of winter air and Minnesota apple strudel"
 
 
 

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