Northern Lights Potential
"SOLAR WIND STORM: Four days ago, Earth entered a fast-moving stream of solar wind. We're still inside. On Sept. 30th, the solar wind is clocking speeds in excess of 650 km/s (1.5 million mph) with little sign of slackening. This is putting pressure on Earth's magnetic field and sparking auroras around the poles. Ian Griffin photographed the colorful glow last night from Otago, New Zealand. "A beautiful pastel aurora daubed the sky above Hoopers Inlet on the Otago Peninsula on Sept. 29th," says Griffin. "Despite clouds, the view was absolutely sublime." More auroras are possible tonight. NOAA forecasters estimate a 35% chance ofG1-class geomagnetic storms on Sept. 30th as the solar wind continues to blow."
Here's a product that helps to describe how active the northern lights may be. Note that when the Planetary K-index reaches 5 or higher, we typically are able to see the northern lights from our latitude in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Note that this index has been at storm levels since Wednesday!
Weekend Northern Lights Forecast
The geomagnetic storm that occurred on the sun earlier this week will continue to buffet Earth through the weekend. At this point, there is still a fairly decent chance at seeing northern lights as long as skies clear. Take a look at the weekend northern lights forecast from the Geophysical Institute at the University of Alaska Fairbanks.
"Forecast: Auroral activity will be high(+). Weather permitting, highly active auroral displays will be visible overhead from Inuvik, Yellowknife, Rankin and Igaluit to Vancouver, Helena, Minneapolis, Milwaukee, Bay City, Toronto, Montpelier, and Charlottetown, and visible low on the horizon from Salem, Boise, Cheyenne, Lincoln, Indianapolis and Annapolis."
Here are a couple of other bookmark worthy northern lights website that will help you stay current with what's happening. The first is SpaceWeatherLive.com that shows the current aurora and the probability of seeing northern lights (weather permitting). The next is SoftServeNews.com
Hurricane Matthew became the 5th hurricane of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season on Thursday and strengthened rapidly into a MAJOR category 3 hurricane Friday morning. As of AM Friday, sustained winds where up to 115mph. Matthew is located in the Caribbean and is expected to lift straight north this weekend toward Cuba and the Bahamas by early next week.
Model guidance suggests that that Matthew will possibly strengthen into a category 3 and or stay at category 2 strength over the next few days.
The official track from the National Hurricane Center suggests Matthew possibly becoming a major hurricane (category 3 or higher) by early this weekend as it begins to turn north toward Jamaica and Cuba by early next week. Note that the the northerly track takes it over the Bahamas by the middle part of next week as a hurricane.
Here are a few different model solutions for Matthew. Note that most are pretty consistent as it tracks over eastern Cuba and the Bahamas early next week. The extended forecast for mid/late week gets a little hairy as some track the system into the Eastern U.S., while others take it out into the Atlantic Ocean.
Sunnier Skies Thursday
After several days of cool, windy and somewhat soggy weather, skies finally cleared Thursday. Here was the visible satellite loop from late Thursday as just a few clouds hung tight across the northern part of the state. Much of the Upper Midwest got back into sunshine, which looks to continue into some fashion Friday.
Signs of Fall Closer to Home
Signs of fall are starting to pop a little more each and every day. Things are a little more advanced across the central and northern part of the state, but we're getting there.
Charles A. Lindbergh State Park - Randy Keillor
The latest update from the MN DNR shows that we are well on our way in the fall color department with some peak colors (75% - 100%) color being reported across parts of Central and Northwestern Minnesota. Note that only 10% to 25% color can be found across the Twin Cities; the average peak there is generally late September to mid October.
Dry Ryder Cup FORE!-cast
The buzz around the Ryder cup is palpable. Folks have been flocking to Chaska by the thousands to see what some the world's greatest golfers will bring this weekend.
Minnesotans are making a big presence as our state boasts more golfers than any other state in the country. How about that.
Weather trends look good for the next 3 days. Whether you're golfing, leaf peeping or picking apples, dry weather looks to persist through early next week. The stubborn storm system that brought scattered showers and gusty winds early this week has stalled over the Ohio Valley for now. The pesky low begins wobbling north again this weekend, which will bring a few more clouds to neighborhoods near you Saturday and Sunday, though we'll continue to stay through Monday.
Most of next week looks warmer than average, but extended model runs are advertising a fairly potent storm system arriving late next week with scattered storms midweek. In the wake of the storm, a cold wind develops, which could bring another round of frost for folks up north.
Extended Weather Outlook
FRIDAY: Sunnier start, a few more PM clouds. Winds: E 5-10. High: 70
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Winds: ENE 5. Low: 52
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Dry start to October. Winds: ESE 5-10. 52. High: 68
SUNDAY: Sun and cloud mix. Mild temps. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 52. High: 69
MONDAY: Partly cloudy, increasing winds. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 53. High: 70
TUESDAY: Breezy. Spotty storms possible late. Winds: SSE 15-25. Wake-up: 54. High: 72
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered storms. Winds: SSW 10-15. Wake-up: 56. High: 68
THURSDAY: Chilly winds return. Showers taper late. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 51. High: 62.
This Day in Weather History
1995: Lightning starts a house on fire in Washington County.
1985: 4 inches of snow falls in Ely, with just a trace in the Twin Cities.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
Average High: 65F (Record: 87F set in 1897)
Average Low: 46F (Record: 26F set in 1939)
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
*Daylight Lost Since Yesterday: ~3mins & 6sec
*Daylight Lost Since Summer Solstice: ~3hours and 49mins
Moon Phase for September 30th at Midnight
0.3 Days After New Moon
Black Moon Rises
"Humans have long had a fascination with lunar events—and with the rise of the Internet, all kinds of moon moments have become media sensations. Consider super moons, harvest moons, and the rare super blood moon total eclipse. On September 30, sky-watchers in the Western Hemisphere may be tempted to add another lunar moniker to the list: a “black moon,” popularly defined as the second new moon in a month. However, it’s not exactly going to make for good sky-watching. New moons occur when the moon’s orbit takes it between Earth and the sun, leaving the lunar orb’s unilluminated side facing Earth. At night, this phase of the moon is impossible to see: Since new moons are in the same part of the sky as the sun, they rise and set with the sun and are overwhelmed by its glare. New moons can be readily seen only when they pass directly in front of the sun, causing solar eclipses. Otherwise, sky-watchers must look to the days before or after a new moon, when just a sliver of the moon’s sunlit side is visible from Earth.".
Weather Outlook Friday
High temperatures on Friday will approach 70F across much of the central and southern half the state. However, dry dewpoints and a light breeze will make it feel more like the mid/upper 60s for much of the day.
Weather Outlook Friday
Winds certainly won't be an issue on Friday as they remain light out of the east. The storm system that produced wind conditions for us earlier this week will keep breezy conditions going across the Great Lakes Region Friday.
Weather Outlook Friday
The storm system that brought gusty winds and scattered rain showers to our neck of the woods early this week will be found across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Friday. The storm system looks to wobble north toward the Great Lakes Region by the weekend, which may help to increase our cloud cover on Saturday and Sunday.
Rainfall potential through PM Sunday suggests a few light showers possible across the extreme southeastern Minnesota and central Wisconsin. Other than that, most locations will stay mostly dry through the weekend.
Extended Weather Outlook
The extended temperature outlook over the next 10 days suggests temperatures warming slowly over the next few days to near 70F over the weekend and early next week. There appears to be a quick jump into the mid 70s on Tuesday before a fairly significant cold front sweeps through by the end of next week. High temperatures by the second of October looks to be potentially very chilly.
6 to 10 Day Temp Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, warmer than average temperatures look to continue across the Great Lakes Region, but note the cooler than average temperatures lurking just to the west. This could potentially make for a chilly second weekend of October if it indeed does move through.
6 to 10 Day Temp Outlook
Here's the national temperature outlook from October 5th - 9th, which shows warmer than average conditions across the eastern two-thirds of the nation with cooler than average temperatures returning to places in the Intermountain-West
National Weather Outlook
A stalled and slow moving area of low pressure over the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes Region will slowly move north/northeast over the weekend. Heavy rains will still be possible across parts of the northeastern U.S., while mostly dry weather looks to continue in the Central U.S.. Heavier, steadier rain looks to move in along the West Coast as a large storm system moves in. This will bring mountain snow back into the Western U.S. over the next 5 days.
The heaviest rainfall over the next few days will be found in the Great Lakes Region and parts of the Northeast with some isolated flood concerns possible. There will also be some heavier rainfall tallies possible across the Intermountain West and along the West Coast.
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