Paul Douglas on Weather Logo


Paul Douglas on Weather

Much of the state to face winter weather advisories through Tuesday

Winter Weather Across The State

Snowy roads were the story across northern Minnesota Sunday, as heavy snow moved through the region. This was the view from one of the MNDOT plow cams just south of Two Harbors around 6 PM Sunday.

These were snow reports across north-central and northeast Minnesota through 6 PM Sunday night. The top total through this time frame was 13" in Lutsen, with a number of 10-12" reports in and around the Bemidji area. You can view an interactive version of this map (which will update with new totals as they come in, including totals Monday and Tuesday across southern Minnesota).

After heavy snow across parts of northern Minnesota Sunday, a second round of precipitation is expected across the state Sunday Night persisting into Tuesday. This will bring another round of heavier snow, especially across parts of central Minnesota, as well as freezing rain/ice across southern parts of the state.

Note: Snowfall graphic above includes potential snow Sunday. The heaviest snow through Tuesday evening is expected across northern Minnesota, where parts of the Arrowhead picked up 6-8"+ of snow on Sunday (accounting for much of their snow projections seen above). That means some of the heaviest snow to begin the week will be across central Minnesota, where some areas could receive 3-6" of snow by the time this complex system pushes through Tuesday. This will make travel slow and difficult at times.

Ice will be heaviest across parts of southern Minnesota, where we could see between a tenth and a quarter inch of ice (or more) through Tuesday. This will cause travel headaches across this portion of the state, and could make it impossible.

Here's a closer view where some of the heaviest ice could fall across southeast Minnesota, where some ice totals could top a third of an inch.

As of 6 PM Sunday, here were the alerts in effect across the state. Winter Storm Warnings across Cook and Lake Counties in northern Minnesota went through 9 PM Sunday evening for total accumulations of 10-15" of snow. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for central and southern Minnesota for 2-5" of snow and (in parts of southern Minnesota) up to a tenth or two tenths of an inch of ice. Most of these are in effect until Tuesday, except across far southeastern Minnesota, where they are only in effect until 6 PM Monday due to Winter Storm Watches that start at that time.

Here are where those Winter Storm Watches are in effect - from Iowa into southeast Minnesota and parts of Wisconsin. These are in effect for the potential of heavy ice accumulations late Monday into Tuesday.


Spring River Flooding Outlook

Last Thursday, NOAA River Forecast Center around the nation (including the North Central River Forecast Center) released their first look at the potential of spring river flooding. Across the upper Mississippi Valley, the North Central River Forecast Center stated the flood risk was near normal: "Overall, the flood potential for this area this spring is near normal, or perhaps slightly below normal for some spots. With a somewhat limited snow cover, at this point in time the risk for flooding due to snow itself is rather low. But with a cool spring anticipated based on the latest outlooks, and with some areas seeing deep frost, runoff rates could be enhanced due to the frozen ground, especially if the frost does not go out of the ground until later in the spring, or if heavy spring rains are seen. Behavior like this was already seen in a few places during the rain event in mid-January, so this will bear watching later this spring."

In the metro area, the Minnesota River at Savage has about a 54% chance of exceeding minor flood stage this spring.


Highs Sunday (Through The Late Afternoon Hours)

Peak Wind Gusts Sunday (Through The Late Afternoon Hours)


Fender-Bender Alert: Slushy Snow Mixes With Ice
By Paul Douglas

I don't know about you but I prefer icing on my cakes and cookies, not on my commute. And here my meteorological prejudice is showing: I just don't like ice.

At least one can rationalize snow; people love to play in it, it's a source of soil moisture for farmers, covers up my dog's digestive indignities, etc. But ice? Great tires, AWD, NOTHING much works on glaze ice. The only thing you can do is slow down and drive even more defensively.

As winters slowly warm friend and climate guru friend Mark Seeley has seen a 4X increase in midwinter ice since 2000.

March is primetime for slushy storms and potholes, and I predict no shortage of either in 2018. A little ice mixes in with the wet snow this afternoon. A second wave of light snow late tonight into Tuesday morning will keep roads icy and dicey. I'll be amazed if the metro area picks up 1-3 inches of mushy snow. Plowable amounts for central Minnesota with a tenth of an inch of ice over southeast Minnesota; enough to bring down a few power lines.

ECMWF models shows an extended thaw late February into early March. High-five.


Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: Icy coating to 1 inch. Low 20. High 22. Chance of precipitation 80%. Wind NE 10-20 mph.
TUESDAY: Light snow tapers. MSP total: 1-2". Low 17. High 21. Chance of precipitation 70%. Wind NW 8-13 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny, better travel conditions. Low 7. High 20. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.
THURSDAY: Light snow arrives PM hours. Low 11. High 26. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind SE 5-10 mph.
FRIDAY: Intervals of sun, a bit milder. Low 15. High 31. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NW 5-10 mph.
SATURDAY: Flurries or light snow possible. Low 22. High 34. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind E 5-10 mph.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy, a drier day. Low 23. High 32. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind W 7-12 mph.


This Day in Weather History
February 19th

1928: A dust storm moves across Minnesota, causing lights to be turned on in the daytime in the Twin Cities.


Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
February 19th

Average High: 30F (Record: 59F set in 2017)
Average Low: 14F (Record: -20F set in 1941)
Average Precipitation: 0.02" (Record: 0.72" set in 1952)
Average Snow: 0.3" (Record: 8.3" set in 1952)


Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
February 19th

Sunrise: 7:07 AM
Sunset: 5:46 PM

*Length Of Day: 10 hours, 39 minutes and 19 seconds
*Daylight Gained Since Yesterday: ~2 minutes and 59 seconds

*Next Sunrise at/before 7 AM: February 24th (6:59 AM)
*Next Sunset at/after 6 PM: March 1st (6:00 PM)


Minnesota Weather Outlook

We'll be watching snow chances across most of the state on Monday, with some freezing rain across parts of southern Minnesota. Far northern Minnesota may escape, though, and see a bit of sunshine. Highs will range from the 20s across southern Minnesota to single digits across northwest Minnesota.

Highs across most of the state Monday will be a good 5-15 degrees below average for this time of year. The best chance of seeing above average temperatures will be in far southeastern Minnesota.

While we'll see cooler temperatures (teens and 20s) through the beginning and middle of the week, we do see 30s return as we head toward Friday and next weekend.

After the snow to begin the week across the Twin Cities, our next shot of snow will move in Friday and Friday Night as another system passes through the region, bringing the potential of another couple inches of snow at the moment.


National Weather Forecast

Messy weather is expected across a good portion of the nation Monday, with snow expected from the Great Basin and Rockies into the northern Plains. Ice can be expected from eastern Nebraska into parts of the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, rain can be expected from Texas into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic, as well as in parts of the Southwest.

There will be a stark temperature difference across the country Monday, with parts of the Ohio Valley into the Southern Plains 20-30 degrees above average, but parts of the northern Rockies will be up to 40 degrees below average!

In that warm sector, record highs will be possible from Louisville south to New Orleans and Pensacola on Monday.

And there will be even more record highs on Tuesday across the eastern United States as the heat ramps up - potentially 54 record highs as 60s are likely as far north as Michigan and Massachusetts.

Meanwhile, many record lows will be possible in the western United States to wake up Tuesday morning.

Heavy rain is expected from Tuesday into the middle of the week from Texas into the Great Lakes, where there is the potential of 3-5"+ of precipitation in just a few days time. We will have to watch the potential of flash flooding with this heavy rain.

In fact, the Weather Prediction Center already has a moderate risk of excessive rainfall that would lead to flash flooding from Texas into southern Missouri for Tuesday.

Heavy snow - on the order of at least a half a foot - is expected from the Great Basin into South Dakota and across parts of the Arrowhead of Minnesota from Sunday evening through Tuesday evening.

Ice will fall from northeast Kansas and eastern Nebraska to the upper Great Lakes. The greatest ice is expected across parts of northern Iowa into Wisconsin, where over a quarter inch of ice could fall.


State Of Emergency In West Virginia Due To Flooding

Officials are monitoring numerous rivers across West Virginia for the potential of flooding over the next several days. The Herald-Dispatch has more: "With weather conditions quickly getting worse, Gov. Jim Justice declared a state of emergency Saturday and put the West Virginia National Guard on standby as heavy rain pummeled West Virginia and caused flooding that was expected to continue throughout the weekend.State emergency officials were put on enhanced watch status and charged with monitoring the situation in all 55 counties, according to a news release. Rain mixed with snow fell in parts of the Tri-State and northern West Virginia, and the National Weather Service in Charleston expected precipitation to continue throughout the weekend."

Drought Continues In Missouri, Could Affect Spring Planting

With drought ongoing in Missouri, farmers are already considering what they will do with crops this spring. More from the Colombia Missourian: "This winter’s had its share of ups and downs, especially temperature.  What it hasn’t had much of is rain or snow.  Last week, more than 99 percent of Boone County was considered to be in moderate drought, according to data by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska – Lincoln.  At this level, some damage to crops and pastures can be expected, as well as some water shortages.  “There are signs that it may be trending a little worse than that,” said Mark Fuchs, senior service hydrologist for the National Weather Service in St. Louis."

Senator Murkowski Wants GOP To Take Climate Change Seriously

However, her score from the League of Conservation Voters is only 19% and just voted to open up areas of Alaska to oil drilling. Baby steps? More from Grist: "Republican Lisa Murkowski says it’s time for her party to take climate change seriously.  “Why is it politically charged to say climate change?” the Alaska senator asked during a speech on Wednesday. “I see in my state the impact we have from warming temperatures.”  She makes a good point. Alaska is experiencing coastal erosion, bigger storms, and melting permafrost."

Bats Also Impacted By Climate Change

Add another animal to the list that climate change is affecting: bats. More from futurism: "We’ve reported in the past on how climate change is impacting wildlife around the world: from causing the Australian rat to go extinct, to forcing other species to adapt to survive. Perhaps unsurprisingly, we can now add bats to the list of those affected by the ever-changing climate, as they’re creatures that tend to travel to warmer areas when temperatures begin to drop.  When they travel, bats usually do so in a swarm consisting of millions. When Mexican free-tailed bats bats migrate from Mexico to the Bracken Cave in San Antonio, Texas, the size of the swarm is so large it can be tracked using weather radar." Image: Bats leaving Bracken Cave in Texas to feast on nearby insects. Image Credit: Phillip Stepanian/Rothamsted Research


Thanks for checking in and have a great Monday! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!

 - D.J. Kayser

Slushy Roads on Monday May Slow Your Commute

Mix Wintry Precipitation Likely Early Next Week
"Confidence is fairly high that an impactful wintry mixed precipitation event will unfold for Sunday through Tuesday of next week. Over the 3-day period, accumulating snow with amounts generally in the 3-6\" range is expected for much of central MN into northwest WI while ice accretion of between several hundredths of an inch to around a tenth of an inch is likely over southern MN into western WI. Hazardous travel conditions and isolated power outages are possible. Keep up to date with the latest forecasts over the next several days on this developing situation."
Weather Outlook Ahead
The weather outlook from midday Sunday to Tuesday morning shows our next storm system moving through the region with areas of rain and mixed wintry precipitation. The 1st round on Sunday looks to bring snow across the northern half of the state, while the 2nd round moves in throughout the day Monday. The storm will taper Tuesday with colder winds developing behind it.
NWS NDFD Snowfall Potential
Here's the snowfall potential through Monday, which shows areas of heavier snow across the northern half of the state. Some spots near Lake Superior could see nearly 6" to 7" by 6pm Monday, while the Twin Cities will only see 1" to 3" of slushy snow.
NWS NDFD Icing Potential
According to the NWS NDFD data, the icing potential across southeastern Minnesota looks fairly impressive through Monday. This particular model suggests some 0.10" to near 0.20" amounts in the far southeastern corner of the state.
GFS Snowfall Potential
According to the GFS (American Model) rounds of snow Sunday through early Tuesday will bring widespread snowfall tallies of 2" to 4" across the southern half of the state, while parts of northern MN could see 3" to 6"+
ECMWF Snowfall Potential
According to the ECMWF (European Model) snowfall tallies across the state look a little less bullish than what the GFS is suggesting. The Twin Cities could still be in the 1" to 4" rain, while snowfall amounts across northern MN doesn't look as heavy.
Warmer Temp Outlook Into Early March
Here's the temperature outlook through the end of the month and into the first few days of March. Sunday's highs will warm into the 40s, which will be nearly 10F above average! The 40s will be short lived as colder air is expected to return in the wake of the snow/ice event early next week. The good news is that the shot of cold air won't be too cold and it won't last too long. Highs in the mid 30s look to return by the end of the month.
Snow Depth 2018
The snow depth map across the country for February 17th suggests that 32.9% of the country is covered in snow, mainly across the northern half of the nation. At this time last year, 23.6% of the nation was covered in snow. As of February 17th, the Twin Cities officially had 3" of snow on the ground at the MSP Airport, but at this time last year, there was NO snow on the ground. Note also that last year at this time, the Sierra Nevada Range in California had a significantly greater snow pack than what is there now.
Snow Depth 2017
At this time last year, 29.5% of the nation was covered in snow.

Stingy Sierra Snow Pack – Drought Looming? 

We are less than a half of a month away from the start of Meteorological Spring and the amount of snow on the ground in the Sierra Nevada Range is a bit concerning. According to researchers, the snowpack in Sierra (as of February 15th) is running nearly ~20% of average. The image below shows the stark contrast between the snow cover in the Sierra Nevada Range from January 28, 2017 vs February 8, 2018. Interestingly, the snow was nearly 190% of average last year all thanks to a very active "Atmospheric River" that brought several water logged storms into the Western US. This year has been quite dull with few, lack luster storms.

(Image courtesy: NOAA - January 28, 2017 vs. February 8, 2018)

Dramatic Difference January 2017 vs February 2018

What a difference a year makes. Thanks to the Department of Water Resources at for the images below, which show the snow to water equivalent from January 2017 to February 2018. Last year, the average water equivalent was 30.2", while the water equivalent right now is only 4.3"!! Keep in mind that the Sierra snow, typically supplies ~30% of California's state water needs, so it is a VERY important water source that is lacking significantly this year.

Current Reservoir Levels

According to, the reservoir levels across much of the state are actually doing ok! Last year's blockbuster year helped fill most reservoirs to adequate levels. Most reservoirs shown below are sitting at more than 100% of their historical average, but with growing concerns of scant Sierra snow this winter, we'll likely cut into these reservoir surpluses fairly rapidly into 2018.

California Drought

According to the US Drought Monitor, drought conditions have been worsening over the last several weeks due to the lack of rain and snow. Note that the severe drought category has risen from 0% to ~20% over the last 3 months. Moderate drought conditions have also risen from ~8% to ~46% over that 3 month period as well.


California Drought Timeline

The significant multi-year California drought impacted much of California from 2012 to late 2016. It was significantly worrisome during late 2013 to late 2016 before the "Atmospheric Rivers" and heavy rounds of Pacific moisture really started showing up during the winter of 2016/2017. As of now, the drought is nowhere near where it was during the multi-year drought phase, but latest data suggests that California is rapidly drying out again.

3-7 Day Hazard Forecast

1.) Heavy precipitation across portions of the Great Lakes and the Upper Mississippi Valley, Mon, Feb 19.
2.) Heavy rain across portions of the Central Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Central Appalachians, the Tennessee Valley, the Great Lakes, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Northeast, the Southern Plains, and the Ohio Valley, Mon-Tue, Feb 19-Feb 20.
3.) Heavy rain across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Southern Appalachians, the Southeast, the Southern Plains, and the Ohio Valley, Wed-Thu, Feb 21-Feb 22.
4.) Flooding possible across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Central Appalachians, and the Ohio Valley.
5.) High winds across portions of the Central Plains, the Central Rockies, the Central Great Basin, the Southern Rockies, the Southern Plains, and the Southwest, Mon, Feb 19.
6.) Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Central Great Basin, the Northern Plains, the Northern Rockies, the Central Rockies, California, the Northern Great Basin, the Pacific Northwest, and the Southwest, Tue-Wed, Feb 20-Feb 21.
7.) Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Central Plains, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Northern Plains, and the Northern Rockies, Mon-Fri, Feb 19-Feb 23.
8.) High winds across portions of mainland Alaska, Mon-Wed, Feb 19-Feb 21.
9.) Much above normal temperatures across portions of mainland Alaska, Mon-Wed, Feb 19-Feb 21.
Slight risk of much below normal temperatures for portions of the Central Plains, the Central Great Basin, the Northern Plains, the Northern Rockies, the Central Rockies, the Middle Mississippi Valley, California, the Northern Great Basin, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Alaska Panhandle, the Pacific Northwest, and the Southwest, Sat-Fri, Feb 24-Mar 2.
10.) Slight risk of much above normal temperatures for portions of mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, Sat-Mon, Feb 24-Feb 26.
11.) Moderate risk of much below normal temperatures for portions of the Central Great Basin, California, and the Southwest, Sat-Sun, Feb 24-Feb 25.
12.) Moderate risk of much below normal temperatures for portions of the Central Plains, the Northern Plains, the Northern Rockies, and the Northern Great Basin, Sat-Fri, Feb 24-Mar 2.
13.) Slight risk of heavy precipitation for portions of the Central Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Southern Appalachians, the Southeast, the Southern Plains, and the Ohio Valley, Sat-Mon, Feb 24-Feb 26.
14.) Severe Drought across the Central Plains, the Central Rockies, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Central Great Basin, the Northern Plains, the Southern Rockies, the Middle Mississippi Valley, California, the Southern Plains, and the Southwest.


"Minnesota Sees Deadliest Winter In Years"
"Minnesota has already had five ice-related deaths this winter. The state typically averages three during the whole season. Minnesota is on track to have one of its deadliest winters in years. Five people have died this season after falling through ice. The state typically averages three ice-related deaths over the course of the entire winter. The 2015-2016 winter had zero ice-related deaths, while the 2016-2017 winter had two. The last time Minnesota saw ice-related deaths in the double digits was in the 2002-2003 winter, when the state had 10 fatalities. The most recent death this year happened in northern Minnesota where a women drowned after riding an ATV on Rice Lake. Minnesota Department of Natural Resources conservation officer Hannah Mishler has already responded to multiple ice rescue calls. "Ice, especially snow covered ice, is extremely deceptive. You can't see dangerous cracks or the thickness of the ice under the snow," Mishler said in a statement."
Ice Safety!!
Before you go testing the ice on area lakes and ponds, remember that "ICE IS NEVER 100% SAFE!" So when is ice safe? Here is an excerpt from the MN DNR regarding ice safety: 
"There really is no sure answer. You can't judge the strength of ice just by its appearance, age, thickness, temperature, or whether or not the ice is covered with snow. Strength is based on all these factors -- plus the depth of water under the ice, size of the water body, water chemistry and currents, the distribution of the load on the ice, and local climatic conditions."
General Ice Thickness Guidelines
Here are some general ice thickness guidelines from the MN DNR:
For new, clear ice ONLY:

Under 4" - STAY OFF
4" - Ice fishing or other activities on foot
5" - 7" - Snowmobile or ATV
8" - 12" - Car or small pickup
12" - 15" - Medium truck

Many factors other than thickness can cause ice to be unsafe.
White ice or "snow ice" is only about half as strong as new clear ice. Double the above thickness guidelines when traveling on white ice.

See more from the MN DNR HERE:

Temperature Anomaly on Saturday
The image below shows the temperature anomaly across North America from Saturday which showed well above average temperatures across much of the Southern US, but cooler than average temps were found across the High Plains and across Canada.
Temperature Trend
Here's the 850mb temperature anomaly from Sunday to AM Tuesday, which shows continued warmer than average temps across the Southern and Eastern half of the nation, while colder than average temps will be found across much of the High Plains and Western US.
High Temps Sunday

High temps across the country on Sunday will be quite warm for much of the central and eastern part of the nation with temps running a good 10F to 20F above average. Some in the Central and Southern Plains will be nearly 25F above average. However, readings across the High Plains and the Northwest will be running -10F to nearly -30F below average. 

Weather Outlook Ahead
Weather conditions through Monday look fairly active the nation as a large storm system develops and slides into the Central US early next week. Areas of heavy rain and thunder will be found in the Mississippi River Valley, while areas of heavy snow will be found on the northern and western side of the storm system as the low moves east. 
7 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's WPC, the 7-day precipitation outlook suggests areas of heavy precipitation continuing in the Central US through the 3rd full week of February. Note that some from the Arklatex to the Ohio Valley could see several inches of precipitation, which could lead to flooding. There will also be fairly substantial moisture from the Great Lakes into the Northeast as the week rolls on, some of which could be in the form of heavy snow. The high elevations in the Western US will also see areas of heavy precipitation, likely in the form of snow there.

Snowfall Potential Ahead

The snowfall potential through Thursday suggests areas of heavy snow falling across the high elevations in the Western US. There will also be pockets of heavier rain across parts of the Midwest and into the Great Lakes.
Slushy Roads on Monday May Slow Your Commute
By Paul Douglas

"It's still too cold. You're responsible for this, Paul! Please kick the Doppler and warm it up" my co-host, Jordana Green barked on Friday. Insert deep sigh here. This is the time of year when I'm more therapist than scientist.
I'll tell you what I told her. Our wintry near-death experience is past its prime. We've picked up an hour and 48 minutes of daylight since the Winter Solstice. I could feel the higher sun angle walking the dog yesterday.
The last week of February will bring daytime highs above freezing. It snows in March, but any slush usually melts within a day or two. You may be skeptical - but spring is coming.
Snow falls north of the MSP metro area Sunday, but we're still on track for a couple inches of slush Monday. By the time the system really gets going, fueled with moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, it'll be too far east for heavy amounts here. Another coating of flakes Tuesday gives way to blue sky by midweek. A slushy mix is possible next Saturday, but we expect 30s and mainly wet roads.
Minnesotans earn their springs. This year will be no exception.

Extended Forecast

SUNDAY: Milder. Snow north of MSP. Winds: S 15-30. High: 42.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Light freezing drizzle mixed with light snow. Winds: SW turning N 10. Low: 18.

MONDAY (Washington's Birthday): 1" to 3" snow; slushy travel. Winds: NE 15-25. High: 21.

TUESDAY: Light snow tapers. Icy coating. Winds: NW 10-15.  Wake-up: 12. High: 20.

WEDNESDAY: Blue sky, still chilly. Winds: W 5-10. Wake-up: 2. High: 18. 

THURSDAY: Plenty of sun. A bit milder. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 5. High: 29.

FRIDAY: Clouds increase. Above average. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 16. High: 34

SATURDAY: Chance of wet snow or mix. Winds: S 8-13. Wake-up: 18. High: 33.


This Day in Weather History
February 18th

1979: This is one of the rare times that Lake Superior completely freezes over.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis
February 18th

Average High: 30F (Record: 58F set in 2017)
Average Low: 14F (Record: -21F set in 1903)

Record Rainfall: 0.70" set in 1961
Record Snowfall: 7.0" set in 1961

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
February 18th

Sunrise: 7:09am
Sunset: 5:45pm

Hours of Daylight: ~10 hours & 36 minutes

Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~ 2 minutes & 59 seconds
Daylight GAINED since winter solstice (December 21st): 1 Hour 50 Minutes

Moon Phase for February 18th at Midnight
3.4 Days Since New Moon


 Temp Outlook For Sunday

Temps on Sunday will be fairly warm across the southern half of the state with readings approaching 40F. Temps in northern MN will be in the 10s and 20s, but with the wind, it will only feel like the single digits above and below 0F.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

Here's the temperature outlook into the early part of March, which suggests warmer than average temperatures moving into parts of the Midwest, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, while cooler than average temps continue in the High Plains.

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

As we head into the early part of March, warmer than average temps will continue in the eastern half of the country, while cooler than average temps will continue in the western US.

"This U.S. Region Is Cooling Down While the Rest of the World Gets Warmer (Video)"
"Floating over the southeast U.S. is a thing called a “warming hole" — and it's not what it sounds like. Despite the rest of the planet increasing in average temperature because of global warming, according to a Dartmouth study released Tuesday, there is an anomaly called the “U.S. warming hole” where temperatures are actually getting cooler. The study believes that in the late 1950s, the jet stream over the U.S. became “wavier,” thus causing the polar vortex to cool down the Southeast U.S. While average global temperatures have increased about 1 degree Fahrenheit since 1958, that number has decreased by 1.2 degrees Fahrenheit in the “warming hole” during that same period."

"Polar ice is lost at sea"
"Our planet reached another miserable milestone earlier this week: Sea ice fell to its lowest level since human civilization began more than 12,000 years ago. That worrying development is just the latest sign that rising temperatures are inflicting lasting changes on the coldest corners of the globe. The new record low comes as the planet’s climate system shifts further from the relatively stable periodthat helped give rise to cities, commerce, and the way we live now. So far, the new year has been remarkably warm on both poles. The past 30 days have averaged more than 21 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal in Svalbard, Norway — the northernmost permanently inhabited place in the world. Last month, a tanker ship completed the first wintertime crossing of the Arctic Oceanwithout the assistance of an icebreaker. Down south in the Antarctic, sea ice is all but gone for the third straight year as summer winds to a close."

"Fair or Foul? How to Use a Barometer to Forecast the Weather"
"Finding out the weather forecast these days is as easy as turning on the TV or checking your phone. That wasn’t always the case, though. In the hundreds of years before television and even radio, people used more rudimentary devices to predict what the skies would bring in the coming days. One of those tools was the barometer. Once common in aircraft, ships, and ordinary households across the world, it predicts approaching weather by measuring changes in air pressure. While technological advancements have replaced the humble barometer in meteorological circles, they’re still fun to have at home and know how to read. In this article we offer a primer on the history of barometers, how they work, and how to use one today to predict the weather. Barometers allow you to feel more connected to the natural forces at work outside your window, and free you from being completely reliant on those oft-wrong apps and local forecasts (studies have shown that local meteorologists inflate the chances for poor weather because it garners better ratings!)."

"No, hurricanes aren’t behind big storm surges in northeast U.S."
"Hurricanes aren’t to blame for most of the large storm surges in the northeastern United States, a new study indicates. Instead, extratropical cyclones, including nor’easters and other non-tropical storms, generate most of the large storm surges in the Northeast, according to the new study in the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. They include a freak November 1950 storm and devastating nor’easters in March 1962 and December 1992. Researchers found intriguing trends after searching for clusters of, or similarities among, storms, says study coauthor Anthony J. Broccoli, chair of the environmental sciences department in the School of Environmental and Biological Sciences at Rutgers University. It’s a new way of studying atmospheric circulation."

"Geophysicists and atmospheric scientists partner to track typhoons' seismic footprints"
"Climatologists are often asked, "Is climate change making hurricanes stronger?" but they can't give a definitive answer because the global hurricane record only goes back to the dawn of the satellite era. But now, an intersection of disciplines—seismology, atmospheric sciences, and oceanography—offers an untapped data source: the continuous seismic record, which dates back to the early 20th century. An international team of researchers has found a new way to identify the movement and intensity of hurricanes, typhoons and other tropical cyclones by tracking the way they shake the seafloor, as recorded on seismometers on islands and near the coast. After looking at 13 years of data from the northwest Pacific Ocean, they have found statistically significant correlations between seismic data and storms. Their work was published Feb. 15 in the journal Earth and Planetary Science Letters. The group of experts was assembled by Princeton University's Lucia Gualtieri, a postdoctoral research associate in geosciences, and Salvatore Pascale, an associate research scholar in atmospheric and oceanic sciences."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX