Radar from AM Tuesday (6:06am to 6:19am)
Heavy rain fell across the area with morning with very impressive rainfall rates and tallies. The loop below shows the radar from 6:06am to 6:19am when the heaviest line was moving through the Metro. There were reports of 1" to nearly 3" in spots with minor flooding and extensively slow commutes.
Reports suggests that with the additional rainfall seen earlier this morning we have now moved up a few ranks the the wettest Julys on Record:
Minneapolis: 7th wettest July on Record (~7.3" month to date)
St. Cloud: 8th wettest July on Record (~6.5" month to date)
Here are just a few of the rainfall reports from earlier Tuesday that were relayed by the National Weather Service.
Heavy Rain From Excelsior at 6:20am
Gully washer in Excelsior, MN early Tuesday morning...
Big Sky Snow??
Believe it or not, this was the view from Lone Peak in Big Sky, MT at 11,166 ft. on Monday afternoon. Yes, that's snow! The same storm system responsible for severe weather across parts of the Midwest was also responsible for this scene in the Northern Rockies.
An Analog Life
By Paul Douglas
I'm no Luddite; I'm addicted to technology like everyone else. I experience mild anxiety disorder when I can't access Google Maps or stump Siri on my new iPhone 7(!) Yes, I'm an early adopter. And yet...
I have no interest in rewinding the clock - but digital only goes so far. I find it vaguely reassuring that vinyl still trumps MP3. My digital camera doesn't capture the magic of Kodachrome. Film looks far better than video. And for that matter a face-to-face meeting usually gets better results than an e-mail or a call. That stuff your mom taught you is true: the old ways are often best. For weather that means shoving the models aside and going with gut instinct. 1 km resolution satellite pics are great. So is looking out the window to "read the sky", factoring cloud types and trends. Take advantage of computers - but rely on your senses.
Storms rumble across the state Tuesday, and a few may turn severe. Dew points in the mid-70s will make it feel like mid-90s by late afternoon. Dew points drop into the 50s tomorrow, taking the edge off the heat.
Highs reach 85 to 90F the next 5 days before a stronger puff of Canadian air arrives next week. Hottest days behind us? Probably.
TUESDAY: Strong T-storms; feels like 95F. Dew point: 73. High: 88. Winds: SSE 15
TUESDAY NIGHT: Graual clearing. Low: 63. Winds: W 10-15
WEDNESDAY: Sunny, breezy, less humid. High: 84
THURSDAY: Sunny and warmer. fells like July. Dew point: 58. Wake-up: 66. High: 88
FRIDAY: Sunny, bordering on hot again. Wake-up: 67. High: 90
SATURDAY: Muggy, few pop-up T-storms. Wake-up: 69. High: 88
SUNDAY: Blue sky, another drop in humidity. Wake-up: 67. High: 83.
MONDAY: Warm sun, enjoying August. Wake-up: 64. High: 84.
This Day in Weather History
1987: Heavy rain at La Crosse, WI. Their rain bucket picked up 5 inches.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
Average High: 83° (Record: 100° set in 1955)
Average Low: 64° (Record: 50° set in 1981)
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
Moon Phase for July 28th at Midnight
2.2 Days Until Full Moon
Minneapolis Temperature Trend
Even though it has been a little warm and sticky as of late, it's hard to complain about our summer so far. Through July 26th, Minneapolis has only had two 90°+ days and according to NOAA's NCDC (1981-2010), we should have had about seven 90°+ days so far. Looking at the extended forecast below, it looks like Tuesday will be another warm and sticky one, but we get back to near average on Wednesday and look to stay near there through early August.
Weather Outlook for Tuesday
Tuesday looks to be warm and sticky again. Temperatures (left) will warm into the upper 80s across the southern half of the state, while dewpoints (right) will warm into the 60s and 70s ahead of a cold front that will plow through late in the day.
Weather Outlook for Tuesday
Scattered showers and storms look to be ongoing across the region early Tuesday with additional thunderstorms developing later in the day. Keep in mind that some of the storms could be strong to severe with heavy rain. Note also the winds picking up across the Dakotas late in the day, this will become more of a factor for us on Wednesday as strong, gusty winds help to flush out the muggy weather midweek.
Severe Threat Tuesday
...MID-UPPER MS VALLEY REGION TO CENTRAL PLAINS... SPECIFICS OF CONVECTIVE GENESIS AND EVOLUTION OVER THIS REGION TODAY WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON MESOSCALE DETAILS. HOWEVER...GENERAL SCENARIO REMAINS VALID OF TSTMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN AND OFFERING SVR WIND/HAIL RISK SEVERAL HOURS ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT...AND NEAR AND S OF BOUNDARIES RELATED TO MORNING MCS ACTIVITY.
SVR PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED OVER MOST AREAS BEHIND EXISTING MCS...WHERE ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION TO RENDER OUTFLOW POOL SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SVR THREAT NOW APPEARS UNLIKELY BETWEEN DENSE MCS CLOUD/PRECIP PLUME AND SFC COLD FRONT. THAT SAME THICK CLOUD/PRECIP PLUME ALSO SHOULD PERSIST FOR MANY HOURS AND RESTRICT DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS MOST OF NRN MN AND NWRN WI. WHILE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT N OR NW OF MCS...ESPECIALLY INVOF CANADIAN BORDER...UNCONDITIONAL SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN STUNTED ENOUGH TO DOWNGRADE FROM 15%/SLGT LEVEL.
FARTHER S...REMAINDER OF REGION ALONG AND SE OF MCS PRECIP PLUME AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY RICH...EVAPOTRANSPIRATIVELY BOOSTED BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...WITH SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO MID 70S F BY MID AFTN. MLCAPE WILL INCREASE SWD AWAY FROM THICKER CLOUD COVER...WITH VALUES GENERALLY RANGING FROM 2000-3500 J/KG. HOWEVER...DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT IS EXPECTED FOR DEEP SHEAR...DCVA AND HEIGHT FALLS...GIVEN FCST PATH OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE. AS SUCH...MOSTLY MULTICELLULAR MODES ARE LIKELY...THOUGH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...LIKELY OF HEAVY-PRECIP CHARACTER...ALSO ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN MRGL/35-40 KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES.
WITH SWWD EXTENT FROM MO RIVER VALLEY...AIR MASS ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY NARROWER ZONE OF RELATIVELY HIGH DEW POINTS...STRONGER SFC HEATING...WEAKER LOW-LEVEL WINDS...AND SMALLER DEEP-SHEAR VALUES. THAT HEATING...ALONG WITH LIFT INVOF FRONT...SHOULD SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS THIS AFTN WITH WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER SUPPORTING STG/ISOLATED SVR GUSTS...AND MAINTENANCE OF ISOLATED SVR HAIL TO SFC. THREAT SHOULD BE STRONGLY TIED TO DIURNAL PROCESSES AND SHOULD DIMINISH MARKEDLY AFTER DARK.
Rainfall potential through midweek looks fairly impressive across the southern part of the state with as much as 1"+ possible. Keep in mind that within heavier thunderstorm activity, heavy rainfall amounts can't be ruled out.
Rainfall Month To Date
It has already been a fairly wet month across the region. Note that the 2"+ rainfall (red coloring) covers much of the state, while nearly 4" to 6"+ seems pretty widespread as well.
Wet July Thus Far...
Here are some of the highest rainfall tallies from local Minnesota CoCoRaHs sites so far this month. Note the near 10" 4 miles south of Afton, MN!
16th Wettest July on Record for Minneapolis
As of July 26th, Minneapolis has seen it's 16th wettest July on record with 6.03" of rain. Interestingly, MSP would still need an additional 10"+ to get close to the wettest July on record of 17.90" set in 1987.
8th Wettest July on Record for St. Cloud, MN
As of July 26th, St. Cloud, MN has seen it's 9th wettest July on record with 6.10" of rain. The wettest July on record was set in 1897 with 12.81" of rain.
National Weather Outlook
A vigorous area of low pressure tracking along the international border through midweek will be responsible for widely scattered strong to severe storms across parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley through Wednesday. The tightly wound nature of the storm system will also make for breezy winds for locations close to the storm system over the next several days as well.
Severe Threat Tuesday
Severe Threat Wednesday
5 Day Rainfall Forecast
According to NOAA's WPC, the 5 day rainfall forecast suggests heavy pockets of rain across parts of the High Plains, Central U.S. and into the Southeast. Flooding and Flash Flooding be an issue for some where the heaviest rainfall sets up within these areas.
Interesting Weather Stats: Indianapolis, IN
It has been a very wet month of Indianapolis, IN as well! In fact, so wet that not only is the 13.13" of rain (through July 26th) good enough for the wettest July on record, but it's also good for the wettest month on record, beating that of 13.12" set in 1875
Here are a few more interesting weather stats from the National Weather Service in Indiana @NWSIndianapolis
MN Storm Reports This July
July has been a fairly active month. According to NOAA's SPC, there have been nearly 150 severe weather reports, 8 of which were tornadoes. However, most of the reports were wind damage reports due to multiple straight line wind events that rumbled across the state earlier this month.
July 17th-18th, 2015 Damaging Wind Event
Here is one of those particular events that unfolded July 17th-18th with multiple wind damage reports that included parts of the Twin Cities. This line of storms was also responsible for 2 of the 8 tornado reports so far this month.
Tornadoes, Funnel Clouds and Hail, Oh My!
Last week, parts of Canada were getting hit by severe storms. A funnel cloud and large hail was reported in Calgary.
A tornado touched down southwest of Calgary on Wednesday, Environment Canada officials confirmed after lifting warnings for the city and surrounding communities. A line of thunderstorms brought funnel clouds, rain, and hail as large as golf balls to south Calgary as it moved over the city. Environment Canada issued a warning for Calgary and several other Alberta communities after a tornado was reported 10 kilometres north of Priddis at 12:53 p.m. MT, according to Environment Canada. "We have a storm spotter who did report a tornado on the ground," said Bill McMurtry, a warning preparedness meteorologist with the agency. "Since that time [we] have had video confirmation. It looks like we had a brief touch down of a tornado for areas to the southwest of the city." Trees may have been damaged when the tornado touched down, he added. There are also reports of damage on the nearby Tsuu T'ina First Nation. "It appears at this time that the City of Calgary has had another brush with a major weather event, but we don't believe we sustained any major damage," said Tom Sampson, chief of the Calgary Emergency Management Agency.
(Image courtesy: @dartanner via Twitter)
Dallas, TX Heat
It's hot and sticky across the Central U.S., but interestingly, Dallas, TX saw its first 100° day of 2015 finally on Sunday. That makes it the 20th latest first 100° day on record.
Thanks for checking in and have a great rest of your week and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX