Paul Douglas is a nationally respected meteorologist with 33 years of television and radio experience. A serial entrepreneur, Douglas is Senior Meteorologist for WeatherNation TV, a new, national 24/7 weather channel with studios in Denver and Minneapolis. Founder of Media Logic Group, Douglas and a team of meteorologists provide weather services for media at Broadcast Weather, and high-tech alerting and briefing services for companies via Alerts Broadcaster. His speaking engagements take him around the Midwest with a message of continuous experimentation and reinvention, no matter what business you’re in. He is the public face of “SAVE”, Suicide Awareness, Voices of Education, based in Bloomington. | Send Paul a question.

Growing Severe Risk This Afternoon

Posted by: Paul Douglas Updated: June 28, 2014 - 1:55 PM

6 PM This Evening. NOAA's 3 km HRRR model shows a fairly impressive line of storms from near Brainerd and Crosby into the Twin Cities and Mankato by late afternoon and evening, capable of heavy rain, small hail and wind gusts to 60 mph. A Severe Storm Watch may have to be issued by SPC.


Possible Severe Storm Watch Issuance. Parts of southern Minnesota, southwest Wisconsin and northern Iowa are being monitored for a possible Severe Storm Watch. Details from NOAA SPC:

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHERN
   IOWA...AND EXTREME WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 281812Z - 282015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING
   WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN A ZONE OF CONVERGENCE
   ARCING FROM NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WEST-CENTRAL
   MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
   EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEGATIVELY
   TILTED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. RECENT SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA SUGGESTS
   INSTABILITY IS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY DOWNSTREAM
   FROM THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE NOW BETWEEN
   1000-1500 J/KG DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER.
   CURRENTLY DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 KNOTS IN THE
   VICINITY OF THE ONGOING/DEVELOPING CONVECTION AND DROPS OFF MARKEDLY
   TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
   DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH /WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY CURRENTLY
   RESIDES/ AS A 50 KNOT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD
   THE AREA. THUS AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EAST INTO THE STRONGER
   INSTABILITY...AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR INCREASES...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
   THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY IS EXPECTED.

   DESPITE THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX...MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
   REMAIN PARALLEL TO THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE. THIS WILL TEND TO
   FAVOR A MORE LINEAR MODE TO THE CONVECTION. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
   LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE...AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED
   DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST
   STORMS.

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