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Paul Douglas is a nationally respected meteorologist with 33 years of television and radio experience. A serial entrepreneur, Douglas is Senior Meteorologist for WeatherNation TV, a new, national 24/7 weather channel with studios in Denver and Minneapolis. Founder of Media Logic Group, Douglas and a team of meteorologists provide weather services for media at Broadcast Weather, and high-tech alerting and briefing services for companies via Alerts Broadcaster. His speaking engagements take him around the Midwest with a message of continuous experimentation and reinvention, no matter what business you’re in. He is the public face of “SAVE”, Suicide Awareness, Voices of Education, based in Bloomington. | Send Paul a question.

Tornado Watch until 10pm (greatest risk west of St. Cloud)

Posted by: Paul Douglas Updated: June 17, 2012 - 4:05 PM

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Tornado Watch Until 10 pm. SPC has issued a watch, meaning "watch out", stay alert, ask yourself what you would do if a tornado approached your current position - have a plan worked out, especially if you live in the watch area, which includes Alexandria, Breckenridge, Redwood Falls, Willmar and Granite Falls. St. Cloud is right on the edge of the Tornado Watch - close enough that everyone in central Minnesota will want to pay attention to the weather later this evening. More from SPC:

 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 404
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   345 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2012
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          WESTERN MINNESOTA
          SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
          NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 345 PM UNTIL
   1000 PM CDT.
   
   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
   GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
   AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
   MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST OF ABERDEEN
   SOUTH DAKOTA TO 45 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ALEXANDRIA MINNESOTA.  FOR
   A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
   OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
   OVER NORTHEAST SD IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...SPREADING EASTWARD
   ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  LOCAL VAD/PROFILER
   OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
   TORNADOES.  STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A BOW ECHO LATER THIS EVENING
   WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27035.

Thunder Potential. NWS Doppler radar at 4:00 pm shows showers and thundershowers pushing across the metro area. This first wave is not severe - it will put down some rain-cooled outflow boundaries that may conspire to make storms more severe later this evening and tonight -  the best chance of hail and damaging winds comes late evening and overnight. The sun should come out during the late afternoon and part of the evening.

 

Supercell Potential. NOAA's HRRR model, valid 8 pm this evening, shows scattered "supercell" thunderstorms from Willmar to St. Cloud, westward to Moorhead and Detroit Lakes. The best chance of tornadic storms and large (2"+_ hail will come north/west of the Twin Cities this evening and early tonight - storms may converge into a straight-line wind event between 8 pm and midnight for parts of the metro area.

 

83 F. high on Saturday in the Twin Cities.

79 F. average high for September 16.

80 F. high last year, on June 16, 2011.

.31" rain fell Saturday morning at KMSP.

 

Severe threat tonight, again late Monday and Tuesday.

Tornado risk greatest over southwestern Minnesota this evening - a MODERATE RISK from SPC implies a potential for a few large, violent, long-lasting tornadoes.

 

Probability of Tornadoes. The SPC map above shows the relative risk of large, violent, EF-2+ tornadoes, specifically: "Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point. (More Info)."

.77" additional rain predicted for the Twin Cities by Wednesday morning (00z NAM model).

MCS potential tonight? Although the risk of tornadoes in the metro is low, it's not zero (there's a much higher risk of supercells south/west of MSP). Discrete, rotating cells may congeal into a squall line tonight, an MCS system, or mesoconvective system capable of torrential rain, straight-line wind damage, and frequent lightning. The best chance of this is between 9 pm and 2 am, but the timing is still very much up in the air.

5" ECMWF (European) predicting for rainfall total for the Twin Cities by Wednesday. Place your bets.

90+ F. high temperatures possible Monday, again Tuesday.

70+ dew points possible in the metro by Tuesday.

June 17, 2010: NOAA reports "The largest single-day tornado outbreak in Minnesota history occurred with 48 tornadoes across the state, and set the stage for a record breaking tornado year that finished with 113 tornadoes statewide. There were three EF-4 tornadoes and four EF-3 tornadoes in Minnesota on this day. Four tornado fatalities occurred, which was the highest number since July 5, 1978." It's more than a little ironic that another significant tornado outbreak is possible later today, two years later to the day.

 

Ripe For A Tornado Outbreak. Many of the ingredients are converging on southwest and west central Minnesota: severe instability, significant wind shear, low-level moisture, fresh outflow boundaries - the result may be rotating supercell storms by late afternoon capable of a few large, violent, long-lasting tornadoes - the best chance from St. Cloud and Willmar west to Granite Falls and Alexandria. 4 pm loop courtesy of WeatherTap.

 

"The last time global May temperatures were below the 20th century average was in 1976. The last time any month was below average was February 1985." - excerpt from the Summit County Citizens Voice; details below.

 

"North America is witnessing the largest pine-beetle epidemic in recorded history. From Canada's Yukon Territory to New Mexico, pine trees by the hundreds of millions are succumbing to a fungus that the beetles carry." - from a story in The Atlantic below.

 

"According to researchers, most of North America and Europe will see a sharp increase in the frequency of wildfires in the next 30 years. This trend is expected to continue until the end of the century." - from a story at Live Insurance News; details below.

 

Zombie Alert. Why worry about dew point and severe thunderstorms when we'll soon be tracking the living dead on Doppler? Details from CDC below.

 

Father's Day Severe Threat: Significant Tornado Risk. According to SPC a surge of hot, humidifed air may set off a few severe storms from the Dakotas into western and central Minnesota (by tonight). A few large, violent tornadoes are possible this evening in South Dakota, pushing into southwestern and even central Minnesota early tonight. Stay alert later today for watches and warnings. Details from SPC:

VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT AND SPEED INCREASES ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT.  THE ORIENTATION
OF THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ACROSS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
FAVOR INITIALLY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL
IN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE/LARGE BUOYANCY ENVIRONMENT. 
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL BE MARGINALLY LARGE FOR
SIGNIFICANT AND LONG-LIVED TORNADOES...THOUGH INCREASING SRH THROUGH
THE EVENING AND INITIALLY DISCRETE STORM MODES DO SUPPORT A RISK FOR
TORNADOES IN ROUGHLY THE 22-02Z TIME FRAME.  OTHERWISE...CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO GROW INTO A LARGER CLUSTER BY LATE EVENING/EARLY
TONIGHT ACROSS SW MN...AND THEN CONTINUE GENERALLY EWD OVERNIGHT
WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL.

 

Seriously Soggy? Not sure I'm buying the ECMWF run (yet), but with drippy, 70-degree dew point air surging north Monday and Tuesday and a temporarily stalled frontal boundary nearby, there's a potential for some excessive rainfall amounts. The European model predicts an almost unbelievable 127 millimeters of rain by Wednesday night. That's close to 5" of rain.

 

Atmospheric Scuffle. A tug-of-war between relatively comfortable air over southern Canada, and steamy, 90-degree air surging northward across the Plains, will play out from the Dakotas and Minnesota into Wisconsin and Michigan, sparking more waves of strong to severe T-storms. The southwest stays dry, more unseasonably cool weather pushing into the Pacific Northwest, a building ridge of high pressure pushing into the southeast promoting generally sunny, fine weather. Source: NOAA NAM model.

 

June 14 Record Rainfall Event. Mark Seeley has more on Thursday evening's record deluge south of the Twin Cities in his WeatherTalk blog: "But the BIG STORY was the very heavy, record-setting rainfalls across Steele, Rice, Le Sueur, Dakota, and Goodhue Counties. Observers in these counties reported from 2 to 8 inches of rainfall during the afternoon and evening. Some record-setting amounts included 2.22 inches at Montgomery, 2.86 inches at Farmington, 6.37 inches at Red Wing Dam, and 8.83 inches at Cannon Falls. The rainfall at Cannon Falls was a new all-time statewide record for the month of June surpassing 8.67 inches at Minneota on June 17, 1957. As a result of the heavy rainfalls the Cannon River and Little Cannon River rose several feet and exceeded flood state, causing road closures and evacuation of some homes."

Photo credit above: "Residents of Cannon Falls, MInn. survey the damage to Minnieska Park and a swollen Cannon River in Cannon Falls, Minn. Friday morning June 15, 2012 following over night rains that dumped over 8 inches of rain on the area causing many area rivers to overflow their banks. (AP Photo/The Rochester Post-Bulletin, Jerry Olson)."

 

One Stormy Week. If you're keeping score (and who among us isn't): 2,034 separate severe storm reports in the last week, according to SPC. For an interactive map from Ham Weather click here. Details:

Total Storm Reports: 2034
Wind: 1061
Rain: 257
Snow/Blizzard: 5
Tornado: 30
Hail: 653
Lightning: 14
Dust: 9
16: 5

 

Remembering The Chandler Tornado. Bill McAuliffe at The Star Tribune takes a look back at the last F-5 tornado to hit Minnesota, 20 years ago yesterday: "Twenty years ago Saturday, about 5:30 p.m., one of the strongest tornadoes in state history blew apart the small southwestern Minnesota city of Chandler, destroying 49 of its 131 homes, injuring more than 30 people and wiping away nearly every familiar landmark. Damage in today's dollars was $24.6 million. One woman died six weeks later; she'd been injured when a wall fell on her. She waited out the storm in her basement. It was the last F5 tornado to touch down in Minnesota."

 

Acapulco Radar. The Saturday late morning radar image above shows the soggy remains of Carlotta, which hit the Mexican coast as a powerful Category 2 hurricane Friday night.

 

"Carlotta" Comes Ashore Near Mexico's Puerto Escondito. Details from Reuters: "Hurricane Carlotta made landfall on Mexico's Pacific coast near the southern city of Puerto Escondido late on Friday, unleashing heavy rain and gusts of winds as far as the resort city of Acapulco, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said. Carlotta, the third named storm of the Pacific hurricane season, had escalated throughout the afternoon into a Category 2 hurricane but weakened into Category 1 storm as it hit coastal mountains in the state of Oaxaca. As it made landfall at 9 p.m. EDT, it had winds of nearly 90 mph (145 kph) with higher gusts. It was about 10 miles (15 km) northwest of Puerto Escondido and about 190 miles (310 km) southeast of the tourist city of Acapulco." Map of Carlotta's track courtesy of NHC and Ham Weather.

 

Mexican Radar Sites. Heading to Mexico for a vacation or "business trip"? Here's a handy web site, where you can tap into radar sites from Cabo San Lucas to Acapulco to Cancun. Definitely bookmark-worthy.

 

"Enlightening". Thanks to the Key West office of The National Weather Service for sharing this shot, via Facebook: "Cloud to cloud and cloud to ground lightning strikes over the extreme southeast portion of the Florida Peninsula. This picture was taken earlier this evening from Key Largo by official storm spotter Joe Sheriff. We are always interested in pictures of weather phenomena around the Florida Keys."

 

A Wild Sky. These must be mammatus, but they're unlike anything I've ever seen. Thanks to Ivette Mendez-Kelley out in Morrison, Colorado for sharing this photo.

 

Weather Bliss. Friday was amazing up north, low humidity, blue sky, a faint whisper of a breeze - June the way it was meant to be on Pelican Lake in Orr. Photo courtesy of Payton Frostad, who had the good sense not to be stranded on that fishing boat.

 

"Ask Paul". Weather-related Q&A:

Paul-

"I took this picture last Saturday in Buffalo, MN.  I was facing basically east, and I took the photo at around sunset.  I was wondering if there was some name for this phenomenon.  I hadn’t seen it before."

Thanks,

Steve Nisbet

 

Steve, you captured a great example of "crepuscular rays", or twilight rays, only seen around sunrise and sunset, caused by scattered of white light in dust and haze by objects (thunderheads?) over the horizon. It can make for a breathtaking sight!

 

Best TV News Bloopers Of 2012 (Video). TVnewscheck.com does the honors: "Here's our second wrap-up this year of some of those slips and gaffes that almost immediately gain wide exposure through YouTube."

 

Preparedness 101: Zombie Apocalypse. Hey, the zombies are coming, so don't sweat the thundershowers tomorrow, ok? I'm a "Walking Dead" fan, and this web site caught my eye. Clearly someone at Atlanta's CDC, the Center for Disease Control, has a well-developed sense of humor: "If zombies did start roaming the streets, CDC would conduct an investigation much like any other disease outbreak. CDC would provide technical assistance to cities, states, or international partners dealing with a zombie infestation. This assistance might include consultation, lab testing and analysis, patient management and care, tracking of contacts, and infection control (including isolation and quarantine). It’s likely that an investigation of this scenario would seek to accomplish several goals: determine the cause of the illness, the source of the infection/virus/toxin, learn how it is transmitted and how readily it is spread, how to break the cycle of transmission and thus prevent further cases, and how patients can best be treated. Not only would scientists be working to identify the cause and cure of the zombie outbreak, but CDC and other federal agencies would send medical teams and first responders to help those in affected areas (I will be volunteering the young nameless disease detectives for the field work)."

 

So So Saturday. Yes, we got off to a wet, sloppy start yesterday morning, but the sun came out for part of the midday and afternoon, highs reaching the 80s before a cooler front pushed across the state. Statewide highs ranged from 75 at Alexandria (behind the front) to 82 St. Cloud, and 83 in the Twin Cities and Redwood Falls.

 

 

 

 

 

Paul's Star Tribune Outlook for the Twin Cities and all of Minnesota:

 

FATHER'S DAY: Showers and thundershowers, then sticky sun returns by late afternoon/evening. Strong/severe storms are possible by evening. Dew point: 55. Winds: S 10-15. High: 85

 

SUNDAY NIGHT: T-storms likely, some with heavy rain and damaging winds. Potential for an MCS system, a widespread outbreak of soaking storms with straight-line winds, torrential rain and frequent lightning. Low: 68

 

MONDAY: Very soggy start. Sticky, more T-storms, some severe. Dew point: 68. High: 93

 

TUESDAY: Hot, stuffy & stormy. Severe risk. Dew point: 72. Low: 73. High: 91

 

WEDNESDAY: Cooler, lingering showers and T-storms south. Low: 72. High: 83

 

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy, cooler. Dew point: 58. Low: 65. High: 77

 

FRIDAY: Lot's of comfortable sun. Low: 60. High: 78

 

SATURDAY: Lingering sun, pleasant. Dew point: 60. Low: 59. High: 79

 

* extended models hinting at a partly sunny Sunday, highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, slight chance of T-storms, mainly far western and southwestern Minnesota.

 

 

Tornado Threat Later Today

"A father carries pictures where his money used to be."

My father liked to remind me "once you have all the information the decision is easy." Easier said than done. But every morning I'd stagger down to the breakfast table, and there'd be a fresh pile of newspaper and magazine clippings....weather stories.... waiting for me. Now he sends me links to cool weather articles via e-mail. He's still my best clipping service.

Give dad extra hugs today.

The older I get the less I take for granted. Like a remarkable pop...or a sunny Sunday.

Nothing says Thanks Dad better than SPF 50 sunscreen. Yesterday's clouds and showers are sweeping east. A well-timed surge of drier air will keep us sunny today, highs in the low 80s as dew points drop back into the comfortable 50s. Today may restore your faith in June.

The approach of hot, stuffy air sets off more rounds of T-storms tonight, Monday and Tuesday (more tropical deluges, even a few severe storms). The best chance of heavy rain: tonight and early Monday, but a few severe storms are possible late Monday and Tuesday as squall lines fire along a stalled frontal boundary.

SPC predicts a "moderate risk" of severe storms today, which happens maybe 10-15 times a year - meaning a much h igher threat of "supercell" thunderstorms capable of large, violent, long-track tornadoes (especially southwestern Minnesota). There will be watches and warnings later today, with the best chance of violent storms south/west of the Minnesota River. By the time the squall line reaches MSP (later tonight) it may be more of a straight-line wind event.

The European, ECMWF, model brings some relief into Minnesota by late week, highs in the upper 70s from Thursday into Saturday.

The fishing's good up here on Pelican Lake, where I saw savvy anglers checking radar on iPhones Saturday. I love it when armchair meteorologists tell me when it's time to head for shore!

 

Climate Stories...

 

As Politicians Debate Climate Change Our Forests Wither. Warmer winters sounds pretty good at first blush, until you realize that pests, bugs and beetles, aren't getting killed off by the cold any more. They can live yearround, with profound implications for our forests, as reported by The Atlantic; here's an excerpt: "The pine-beetle epidemic provides perhaps the most visual evidence of climate change in the United States. But that evidence, while arresting, remains circumstantial. Scientific studies linking the factors that drove the epidemic to rising global temperatures haven't convinced everyone, let alone prompted people here to forsake fossil fuels. It isn't just the dead trees. Here, near the headwaters of the Colorado River, the snow is melting earlier--and there's less of it. Summers are drier. Threats of wildfire and water shortages have grown, changing lives and livelihoods in Colorado and across the West

Photo credit above: "A Mountain Pine Beetle is seen during the examination of trees in the White River National Forest near Vail, Colorado." (AP)

 

Glimmer Of Hope? Conservative Tackles Climate Change. How do we leverage the free market and innovation to put a price on carbon and encourage carbon-free energy alternatives. Can we grow our economies without such a heavy reliance on greenhouse-gas pollution fossil fuels? Here's an excerpt from Skeptical Science: "Climate hawk David Roberts (Grist) accurately describes Adler’s piece as  “an eloquent, principled case for the simple notion that ‘embrace of limited government principles need not entail the denial of environmental claims.' Adler suggests four policy changes to “make it cheaper and easier to adopt low-carbon technologies:”   1) prizes to spark  innovation, 2) lower legal barriers to  deployment, 3) a revenue-neutral carbon tax, and 4) adaptation."

Global Warming: May 2012 Second Warmest On Record. Details from the Summit County Citizens Voice: "It’s getting hotter and hotter, the National Climatic Data Center announced this week, releasing its monthly global temperature analysis showing that the average land surface temperatures in May 2012 were the warmest ever recorded. Land and sea surface temperatures combined averaged out to the second-warmest May since record-keeping began in 1880. Only May 2010 was warmer. Measuring land surface readings only, the average temperature was 2.18 degrees above the 20th century average. Land and surface readings combined averaged to 1.19 degrees above the 20th century average."

 

Climate Change Could Spark More Wildfires Around The World. An excerpt from Live Insurance News: "A new study from the University of California and the Texas Tech University suggests that climate change could have a profound impact on wildfire patterns around the world. The study indicates that changing weather patterns will create conditions that are more accommodating to fires. These conditions would also make it more difficult for wildfires to be contained. The reason behind this is largely linked to the fact that large parts of the planet will have increased risk of fires. Controlling the spread of fires over large expanses of land has long proven to be a difficult feat."

 

Fighting Climate Change With Carbon Capture May Cause Quakes. Details from Bloomberg Businessweek; here's an excerpt: "Burying carbon dioxide in the ground, considered a promising way to combat climate change, may increase the risk of earthquakes, according to a report. The process, in which liquefied carbon dioxide is stored in caverns, “may have the potential for causing significant induced seismicity,” the National Research Council said today. Injecting wastewater underground from natural-gas fracking may also trigger earthquakes, while using hydraulic fracturing to get trapped gas doesn’t pose a “high risk,” the report found."

 

Climate Change Means More Work For Emergency Responders. The story from Asheville's citizen-times.com: "...With warming temperatures, scientists expect more extreme weather events, sudden downpours and extended droughts, which in turn could mean more flooding or more wildfires, Haggard said. “Stay tuned to the Weather Channel or the NCDC.” The burning of fossil fuel along with the cutting of forests around the world has fueled a steady increase in the Earth’s average temperature, Haggard explained.The ocean has absorbed perhaps 50 percent of the carbon dioxide, making the waters more acidic and threatening coral reefs and fisheries."

 

To Fix Climate Take Meat Off The Menu. Oh boy, this is a tough one - but in the spirit of full disclosure here is an excerpt of an Op-Ed from The Washington Post: ".....A 2006 U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) report, “Livestock’s Long Shadow,” called raising animals for food “one of the top two or three most significant contributors to the most serious environmental problems, at every scale from local to global.” Since then, climate researchers Robert Goodland and Jeff Anhang have estimated that livestock and their methane-rich byproducts account for even more greenhouse gas emissions than the earlier report estimated — a whopping 51 percent. More conservative estimates say that meat accounts for about a third of greenhouse gas emissions."

older post

More on Thursday's Heavy Rain and a Somewhat Soggy Saturday

newer post

Severe Storms Developing in Western Minnesota

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