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Paul Douglas. Douglas is a nationally respected meteorologist, with over 30 years of television and radio experience. A serial entrepreneur, Douglas continues to seek out new ways to expand on new media and almost limitless on-line opportunities. As Founder and CEO of Broadcast Weather, Douglas and a team of meteorologists are producing and disseminating daily weather feeds for web sites, cable channels, and TV broadcasters. | Send Paul a question.

Watch Will Be Upgraded To Warning (chance of 6-12"+ increases)

Posted by: Paul Douglas Updated: February 26, 2012 - 10:45 AM

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Storm Update. It's still not a done deal, a sure thing (it never is), but the odds of 6-12" or more of snow for the metro continues to rise. No problems today or Monday, but Tuesday and Wednesday will be a slushy, sloppy, snowy mess. Snow arrives Tuesday morning, mixes with sleet from the Twin Cities on south late Tuesday (at the height of the storm), then changes back to snow late Tuesday night before tapering by Wednesday afternoon. My only concern: models hinting at a very tight snow gradient over the south metro (amounts going from 3-10" in the span of 20-30 miles). If the storm tracks 50 miles farther north that gradient could shift into the metro, bringing snowfall totals down. But again, this still looks "plowable", potentially crippling just north/west of the Twin Cities. - Paul

2.01": the amount of liquid the NAM prints out from the Tuesday-Wednesday storm. Even assuming sleet late Tuesday that could still translate into a foot of snow, especially north/west of the Twin Cities.

 

Reasonable Scenario #1. I'm still leaning toward the NAM solution, some 8-12" amounts possible northern and western suburbs, considerably less over the south metro, but well over a foot for much of central Minnesota.

 

Snowpocalypse Scenario #2. The GFS is printing out some outrageous snowfall totals: closer to 12-20" for a huge swatch of central Minnesota into the north metro, but again, notice the sharp snowfall gradient over the south metro, about 1" for Mankato, while MSP picks up over a foot. That's problematic. As long as the storm tracks across Iowa (keeping any changeover minimal and any "dry tongue" limited to Iowa and far southern MN) we should still pick up a very significant snowfall. But if (a big if) the storm hooks north, all bets are off.

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Some Sunday Snow, Mainly North. Holy Cow Potential Next Week!

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Gearing Up For Biggest Storm of Season

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