Paul Douglas is a nationally respected meteorologist with 33 years of television and radio experience. A serial entrepreneur, Douglas is Senior Meteorologist for WeatherNation TV, a new, national 24/7 weather channel with studios in Denver and Minneapolis. Founder of Media Logic Group, Douglas and a team of meteorologists provide weather services for media at Broadcast Weather, and high-tech alerting and briefing services for companies via Alerts Broadcaster. His speaking engagements take him around the Midwest with a message of continuous experimentation and reinvention, no matter what business you’re in. He is the public face of “SAVE”, Suicide Awareness, Voices of Education, based in Bloomington. | Send Paul a question.

Severe Threat Up North (metro flood watch overnight, 90s all week)

Posted by: Paul Douglas Updated: July 17, 2011 - 10:17 PM

Close Call? NWS Doppler at 10:13 pm shows severe storms near Morris and Glenwood, tracking east/southeast toward St. Cloud (and possibly the Twin Cities after midnight). The best chance of strong/severe storms will come over the northern suburbs of the Twin Cities after midnight. Some of these storms may contain large hail, 1-1.5" in diameter, and wind gusts over 60 mph. Here is the latest warning from the NWS:

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
949 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  WESTERN POPE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...
  CENTRAL STEVENS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

* UNTIL 1045 PM CDT

* AT 945 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF
  PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MORRIS...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
  MORRIS...
  GLENWOOD...
  DONNELLY...
  ALBERTA...
  CHOKIO...
  HANCOCK...
  CYRUS...
  STARBUCK...
  LOWRY...
  LONG BEACH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW
INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WIND OR HAIL DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY...FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

 

Ripe For Storms. The best chance of strong/severe storms will come north of a line from Alexandria to St. Cloud to Taylors Falls later this evening. The 9:00 pm visible satellite image shows "overshooting tops", little nubs on the tops of the severe storms bubbling up over southeastern North Dakota, now drifting across western and central MN, suggestive of violent updrafts, capable of a few isolated tornadoes this evening over the Red River Valley, possibly in the Fargo/Moorhead area. People living in west central Minnesota should stay alert and be ready to head for the basement if warnings are issued.

 

Tornado Watch Until 10 pm. SPC has issued a Tornado Watch for portions of west central Minnesota, including Moorhead, Fergus Falls and Detroit Lakes. A few violent T-storms may form along a violent warm frontal boundary through the evening hours.

 

Severe Storm Watch Until Midnight. The watch includes the northern suburbs of St. Cloud, Alexandria, Brainerd, Duluth and the Hibbing area, calling for large hail and potentially damaging straight-line winds.

 

 

 

Flash Flood Watch. The NOAA map above shows rainfall in just the last week, 3-5" across much of the metro area, in fact the majority of central and southern Minnesota has picked up a month's worth of rain in just the last week. The ground is soggy/saturated, unable to hold much additional moisture. The NWS has issued a flood watch for much of Minnesota and Wisconsin - any storms overnight may produce some 1-3"+ rainfall amounts, coming on top of the torrential rains that fell Friday (2-5" amounts were common). The result may be street and stream flooding:

 

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
127 PM CDT SUN JUL 17 2011

...VERY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE WITH DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

.VERY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF EASTERN
MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND A
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
COULD ALSO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. VERY UNSTABLE AIR
WITH UNUSUALLY HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...AND
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND 2 INCHES
AN HOUR. MUCH OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN ALREADY
HAVE SATURATED SOILS AND AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS CONTINUE TO RUN
HIGH BECAUSE OF FREQUENT HEAVY RAIN.

THE MAIN FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE EARLY TONIGHT...BUT IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AS
WELL. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL MONDAY MORNING
AND INCLUDES THE AREA ROUGHLY EAST OF A LINE...FROM LONG PRAIRIE...
TO LITCHFIELD...MANKATO AND ALBERT LEA.

 

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