A November Cold Snap On The Way

Well, here we go. The coldest air of the season so far is filtering into the upper Midwest, and it will be quite a chilly start to Veterans Day across the state. Lows will dip Monday morning into the single digits and teens, but when you factor in the wind it will feel like it's below zero in most locations. We haven't had a wind chill below zero in the Twin Cities since March 7th.

And that cold start will lead to a cold day across the state, with highs only in the teens and, if we're lucky, some low 20s in southern Minnesota. These highs could be some of the coldest on record for the date, and the current forecast would have record cold highs set in Duluth, St. Cloud, Brainerd, and Hibbing. We'll come close in the Twin Cities, International Falls, and Rochester.

Tuesday morning will be the coldest morning of this cold blast, with lows that are in the single digits on either side of 0F. Winds don't currently look to be as strong as Sunday Night but wind chill values will still dip below zero in most areas. The record low that would be the most in jeopardy Tuesday morning in down in Rochester, where the forecast low of 0F would be one degree shy of tying the record (-1F in 1986). All other climate sites have forecast lows that are several degrees warmer than their record.

While we will still be bitterly cold for this time of the year on Tuesday, we will at least see highs that are slightly warmer than what they are on Monday. Record cold highs don't look to be in jeopardy on Tuesday, as they are in the single digits and low teens (mainly set in 1940 or 1986) for all the area climate locations.

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Lake Effect Snow Possible Downwind Of Lake Mille Lacs Sunday Night/Monday

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44th Anniversary Of The Sinking Of The Edmund Fitzgerald

Sunday marked 44 years since the sinking of the Edmund Fitzgerald in a strong fall storm on Lake Superior, killing all 29 of her crew. According to NWS Marquette, "Ship observations during the November 1975 storm showed sustained wind speeds of 30 to 45 knots from the northeast, east, or southeast prior to the low pressure system crossing the lake. As the low crossed the lake, winds shifted to the northwest and increased. Wind speeds of 50 knots were recorded over the eastern part of the lake. Ship observations indicated waves of 16 to 18 feet during the height of the storm."

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1940 Armistice Day Blizzard

Monday marks the 79th anniversary of the Armistice Day blizzard that killed 49 people in the state and caught many - including hunters - by surprise. 16.2" of snow fell in a 24-hour period in the Twin Cities, with 26.6" falling in Collegeville. Here's more from the Minnesota State Climatology Office: "The Weather Bureau forecast from Chicago for the morning of November 11 was for a "moderate cold wave warning". Chicago was the forecast office for Minnesota at that time. Shortly after 8am the rain began to change to a mixture of sleet, freezing rain and snow at the Twin Cities airport that continued for the rest of the morning coating trees and wires. The snow became heavy by lunchtime. Severe blowing and drifting snow quickly developed with winds that were sustained around 30 mph for the rest of the afternoon. The peak gust was 43 mph at 9:51pm. The visibility at the airport was zero to one eighth mile from noon until 11 pm. The temperature fell from 32 degrees at 8 am to 15 degrees by 3 pm."

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Let's Not Forget About America's Veterans
By Paul Douglas

"There is a certain enthusiasm in liberty, that makes human nature rise above itself, in acts of bravery and heroism" wrote Alexander Hamilton at the onset of the American Experiment. On Veterans Day 2019 I'm reflecting on the men and women who sacrificed everything. There may be no higher calling.

I acknowledge both the necessity and utter futility of war. How my grandfathers, in all probability, fought against each other on the Western Front, during the First World War. Or my youngest son, Brett, who flew Navy helicopters Navy off the coast of Iran. "130-degree heat, with a risk of surface-to-air missiles." I take nothing for granted.

Temperatures hit bottom today; teens with a chill factor dipping near zero. This is as cold as it's going to get looking out 2 weeks. We climb above 32F Wednesday with a few 40s next weekend.

Clippers dominate our weather, with little chance of a big, meaty storm the next 2 weeks.

Quiet now, but crazy around Thanksgiving, when storms are most disruptive? Very logical.

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Extended Twin Cities Forecast

MONDAY: Brrr. Feels like 0F. Wake up 11. High 18. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind NW 10-20 mph.
TUESDAY: More sun, still heat-deprived. Wake up 7. High 23. Chance of precipitation 10%. Wind S 8-13 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Showers or rain or wet snow. Wake up 19. High 36. Chance of precipitation 40%. Wind NW 8-13 mph.
THURSDAY: Some blue sky, a little better. Wake up 23. High 37. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind W 7-12 mph.
FRIDAY: More clouds than sun, but dry. Wake up 26. High 40. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NE 7-12 mph.
SATURDAY: Milder, late day rain showers. Wake up 29. High 43. Chance of precipitation 50%. Wind S 10-15 mph.
SUNDAY: Damp start, still gray and damp. Wake up 32. High 39. Chance of precipitation 20%. Wind NE 7-12 mph.

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This Day in Weather History
November 11th

1940: The Great Armistice Day Blizzard kills 49 people in Minnesota. Food dropped by Pilot Max Conrad saved stranded hunters. The barometer fell to 28.66 inches at Duluth. Some roads were so badly blocked with snow they weren't opened until Nov. 22.

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Average Temperatures & Precipitation for Minneapolis
November 11th

Average High: 44F (Record: 64F set in 2005)
Average Low: 29F (Record: -1F set in 1986)
Average Precipitation: 0.06" (Record: 2.52" set in 1940)
Average Snowfall: 0.3" (Record: 8.2" set in 1940)
Record Snow Depth: 13" in 1991

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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
November 11th

Sunrise: 7:04 AM
Sunset: 4:48 PM

*Length Of Day: 9 hours, 43 minutes and 42 seconds
*Daylight LOST Since Yesterday: ~2 minute and 31 seconds

*When Do We Drop Below 9.5 Hours Of Daylight? November 17th (9 hours, 29 minutes, and 21 seconds)
*Next Sunrise At/After 7:30 AM: December 1st (7:30 AM)
*Earliest Sunset: December 5th-14th (4:31 PM)

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Minnesota Weather Outlook

As mentioned above, it will be a cold Veterans Day across the state, with highs held in the teens and low 20s. I would not be surprised to see a few flurries or light snow showers around, especially across northern Minnesota.

Only one word is really necessary for this graphic - OUCH! Highs on Monday will be 25-30F degrees below average across much of the state. The average high for November 11th in the Twin Cities is 44F.

As we take a look at the day planner for Monday, we'll start the morning off in the low teens with wind chills around 0F, with highs only climbing to the upper teens (and maybe low 20s if we're lucky). With wind speeds picking up in the afternoon out of the northwest at 10-15 mph, wind chills will likely remain in the single digits throughout the day.

Winds could gust even stronger at times on Monday, especially across southern Minnesota where 20-30 mph gusts will be possible.

The good news is that we do climb out of the temperature basement fairly quickly once we reach the second half of the week, with highs above freezing once again by Thursday. The bad news? High will remain below average through the entire workweek.

And the even better news is that it appears that the temperatures we'll see the next few days are the bottom of the barrel for at least the next few weeks. Highs look to remain mainly in the 30s - with maybe a few 40s sprinkled in - from the second half of this week through the full third week of the month.

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National Weather Forecast

On Monday, a cold front ushering in a blast of Arctic air will continue to push south and east across the eastern two-thirds of the nation, bringing snow from the Front Range to the Central Plains, Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, and portions of New England. Where it is still warm enough, showers and potentially a few thunderstorms will impact areas from the Northeast to the Southern Plains. A few rain showers will be possible in the Pacific Northwest. As mentioned, that blast of Arctic air will bring highs that are at least 20-30F degrees below average from eastern Montana eastward into the Great Lakes, and southward into the Texas Panhandle.

Through Tuesday evening, the heaviest rain will fall across portions of southern Texas into Arkansas and Louisiana, where rainfall amounts of 1-2" are possible. The heaviest snow will fall downwind of Lake Superior, where totals over two feet will be possible due to lake effect snow. Some heavy lake effect totals will also be possible downwind of Lake Michigan, with over a foot possible in northern portions of Michigan. Up to a foot of snow will be possible in interior areas of the Northeast as well.

Here's a closer look at some of the totals possible through Tuesday evening in the upper peninsula of Michigan. Again, some areas could see over two feet of snow over the next few days.

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Great Lakes water levels have swung from record lows to record highs. Here’s why.

More from the Capital Weather Gang: "The Great Lakes water levels broke records this past July and August, with some basins experiencing the highest levels ever recorded since 1918. Unusually high water has plagued their shores this year, causing beach erosion and disappearing waterfronts. Even as we head into the winter months, water levels “remain well above average and near record highs levels,” according to the Great Lakes Water Level Outlook, released this week by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Water levels have not always been this high, however, with record low levels observed on lakes Michigan and Huron in 2013, part of an erratic pattern that could become normalized with our changing climate."

Some wonder if electric microgrids could light the way in California

More from the Seattle Times: "Calistoga, Calif., a city of some 5,300, lies tucked in the Napa Valley between wooded hills that state utility regulators classify as extremely susceptible to wildfires. The town was recently threatened by the Kincade fire and has endured several blackouts since the largest utility in the state, Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E), last year began a policy of shutting down power lines to prevent its equipment from sparking blazes. City leaders are eager to find a way to keep the lights on during emergencies, and they’re weighing an investment in a microgrid: solar panels, batteries and other on-site generation and storage that would allow the town to stay electrified without depending on far-off transmission lines."

The trouble with chocolate

More from the Washington Post: "Mars Inc., maker of M&M’s, Milky Way and other stalwarts of the nation’s Halloween candy bag, vowed in 2009 to switch entirely to sustainable cocoa to combat deforestation, a major contributor to climate change. But as the United States stocks up for trick-or-treating, Mars and other global chocolate makers are far from meeting that ambitious goal. Over the past decade, deforestation has accelerated in West Africa, the source of two-thirds of the world’s cocoa. By one estimate, the loss of tropical rainforests last year sped up more in Ghana and Ivory Coast than anywhere else in the world."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great Monday! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter (@dkayserwx) and like me on Facebook (Meteorologist D.J. Kayser)!

 - D.J. Kayser

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A November Cold Blast Is On The Way For Monday & Tuesday

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Record-Tying Cold on Monday. 40s Next Week Should Feel Like a (Bad) Vacation