Tuesday Sunset

Thanks to Susie for this picture out of Eden Prairie after the storms cleared on Tuesday evening. Much of southern Minnesota had strong to severe thunderstorms with heavy rainfall.

Storm Reports Tuesday

Here are the storm reports from Tuesday and note that there were nearly a dozen tornado and or funnel cloud reports on Tuesday, most of which were in southern MN.

 
Heavy Rainfall
 
Scattered showers and storm on Tuesday dropped heavy rainfall across parts of the state. Take a look at the radar estimated rainfall from Tuesday and note how widespread the near 1" (green colors) were. Also note the near 2" to 4"+ estimates across southern MN!
 
 
CoCoRaHS Rainfall Reports
 
Here are some of CoCoRaHS reports from Tuesday, which show several 1" to 2"+ amounts with the heaviest near Mankato with 5.25"!!
 

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Kelvin-Helmholz Cloud

This video was taken from the Sleeping Bear Heritage Trail, which currently runs 16 miles from Empire, MI to Port Oneida, MI. The amazing cloud is a Kelvin-Helmholtz cloud, formed when two different layers of air in our atmosphere are moving at different speeds, making the cloud roll like a wave. After this long, narrow cloud passed, the sky was blue!

See the video from Sleeping Bear Dunes National Lakeshore Facebook HERE:


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Better Thursday. Stickier and Stormier By Sunday
By Todd Nelson

I'd have to say that this is by far my favorite time of the year. Long days, warm nights, rumbles of thunder and a green garden. However, I feel like I can't slow Mother Nature's sprint.

Get this, we're only a few days away from the Summer Solstice (Monday, June 20th). On that day, when the sun's most direct rays are shining over the the Tropic of Cancer at 23.5 degrees latitude north, we peak at around 15 and a half hours of daylight; almost 7 hours more daylight than on the Winter Solstice (Dec. 22). I feel good until the 4th of July, but then we hit the summer slide. Dwindling daylight and the "Dog Days of Summer". With that said, enjoy the summer weather while you can!

Thursday will be a fine day with lighter winds, lower humidity values and bright sun! A storm system approaching slowly from the west will bring spotty showers and storms to western and northwestern Minnesota late Friday and Saturday. Father's Day looks hot and sticky with a late day thunder threat.

Meanwhile, Phoenix AZ could hit 120° by Sunday - WHEW!

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Extended Forecast

THURSDAY: Cloudy start, more PM sunshine, less humid. Winds: ESE 7-12. High: 79. 

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and quiet. Winds: ESE 5mph. Low: 63

FRIDAY: Warmer, more humid. PM storms west. Winds: ESE 5-10. High: 84

SATURDAY: Feels like summer. Late day rumble. Winds: S 10-20. Wake-up: 63. High: 85

SUNDAY: Muggy Dad's day. Scattered PM storms Winds: SSW 10-15. Wake-up: 69. High: 88

MONDAY: Summer begins. Lingering T-showers. Winds: NNW 5-10. Wake-up: 68. High: 80

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny, refreshing breeze. Winds: NNW 5-10. Wake-up: 60. High: 77

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy and mild. Winds: W 5. Wake-up: 61. High: 80F
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This Day in Weather History
June 16th

1992: A total of 27 tornadoes touch down across Minnesota, the second most in Minnesota history. The communities of Chandler, Lake Wilson, Clarkfield and Cokato are badly damaged. 80 million dollars worth of damage would occur, and Presidential disaster declarations would be made for many counties.

1989: Frost develops across Minnesota with crops destroyed on high ground in southeast Minnesota. Preston got down to 32.
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Average High/Low for Minneapolis
June 16th

Average High: 79F (Record: 97F set in 1933)
Average Low: 59F (Record: 43F set in 1951)
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Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
June 16th

Sunrise: 5:26am
Sunset: 9:02pm

*Daylight gained since yesterday: ~20seconds
*Daylight gained since Winter Solstice (December 22nd): ~6hours and 50mins
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Moon Phase for June 16th at Midnight
4.2 Days Until Full (Strawberry) Moon

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Extended Outlook

More Heat on the way? Here's the extended forecast depicted from the ECMWF model, which suggests another hot front arriving on Father's Day Sunday with high temperatures getting to near 90F! However, it doesn't appear to last too long as highs much of next week look to settle into the low/mid 80s.

6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC, the 6 to 10 day temperature outlook suggests a slight chance of below normal temperatures from June 21st - 25th across the Great LakesSo, as we head into next week, temperatures will like be closer to where we should be at this time of the year. Side note; the Summer Solstice is Monday, June 20th!

 

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Thursday Weather Outlook

High temperatures across the state on Thursday don't look to terribly warm. In fact, we should be pretty close to average for mid June with highs in the 70s and low 80s. However, note that readings closer to Lake Superior will be much cooler with a wind off the lake. Dewpoints won't be too sticky either as most of us hover in the 50s to near 60s.

Thursday Weather Outlook

Winds on Thursday won't be a problem either as most of us will see a 5 to 10 mph wind out of the east. Wind gusts could be a little stronger across the western part of the state during the afternoon in advance of another storm system that may kick out spotty thunder later this week/weekend across the Dakotas.

Thursday Weather Outlook

After a fairly cloudy day Wednesday, Thursday should feature more sunshine and lighter winds. With highs near average, dewpoints fairly comfortable and plenty of sunshine, Thursday should be a pretty nice day! Enjoy!

Simulated Radar

Here's the simulated radar into the early weekend timeframe, which suggests fairly quiet weather Thursday and much of Friday except across far western Minnesota. Scattered storm from the Dakotas will drift east into MN early Friday with lingering showers possible Friday into Saturday. The next best chance of showers and storms for everyone doesn't look to arrive until PM Sunday... Stay tuned.

 
 

Rainfall Potential

Rainfall potential through midday Saturday shows heavier rainfall potential across NW Minnesota. Scattered showers and storms will drift into those areas through the early weekend with some areas seeing up to 1"+ rainfall.


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National Weather Outlook

While hot temperatures continue to take up residency in the Central U.S., scattered showers and storms will continue to erupt on the outer periphery of this hot dome over the next few days. Note that most of the rainfall will be found from the Northwest to the Midwest and back down through the Mid-Atlantic states.

Severe Threat Thursday

 ...SUMMARY... AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT ALONG WITH POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES IS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS AND EASTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. SEVERE STORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST STATES AND CAROLINAS.

Severe Threat Friday

 ...SUMMARY... SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. ...SYNOPSIS... IT STILL APPEARS THAT AN INCREASINGLY PROMINENT SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO DURING THIS PERIOD...WITHIN LARGER-SCALE MID/UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG AN AXIS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. GUIDANCE IS MORE UNCLEAR CONCERNING A POSSIBLE IMPULSE MIGRATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE AFTER EMERGING FROM THE ROCKIES. POSITIVELY-TILTED LARGE-SCALE MID/UPPER TROUGHING LIKELY WILL LINGER NEAR/WEST OF THE U.S. PACIFIC COAST...WITH AN EMBEDDED CLOSED LOW SLOWLY SHIFTING INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...MODEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES...WELL IN THE WAKE OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE THAT EMERGED FROM THE PACIFIC COAST TROUGHING...AND SHOULD PROGRESS NORTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES DURING THIS PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM...SHARP...POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER TROUGHING TO THE EAST OF THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS INCLUDES A MODEST EMBEDDED IMPULSE EXPECTED TO TURN EAST OF THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST...WHERE WEAK MID/UPPER TROUGHING PROBABLY WILL LINGER. A TRAILING FLANK OF THE SURFACE FRONT MAY STALL/WEAKEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...NORTHWESTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND ADJACENT LOWER PLAINS. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER FRONT /ASSOCIATED WITH WESTERN CANADIAN UPPER IMPULSE/ ADVANCING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS ALSO EXPECTED TO GENERALLY STALL AND WEAKEN...AS SURFACE TROUGHING REDEVELOPS BACK OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.

Severe Threat Saturday

 ...SUMMARY... THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG SURFACE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA...INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. ...SYNOPSIS... A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WITHIN A NORTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT WESTERLIES APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY FLATTEN UPPER RIDGING ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EASTERN CANADA DURING THIS PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...PROMINENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGING...CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...MAY ELONGATE EASTWARD ALONG AN AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...THE REMNANTS OF A CLOSED LOW MIGRATING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY DEFORMED/SHEARED WHILE CONTINUING INLAND ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA. IN RESPONSE TO THESE DEVELOPMENTS...A MODEST SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA...AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT ADVANCING INTO/ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A WARM FRONT PROBABLY WILL STRENGTHEN TO THE EAST OF THE LOW...ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.

5 Day Rainfall Potential

According to NOAA'S WPC, the 5 day rainfall forecast suggests heavier pockets of rain across parts of the northern tier of the nation through the Mid-Atlantic states and into the Southeastern U.S.. Keep in mind that with thunderstorm activity, some locations could see 1" to 2"+ through the end of the weekend.


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"Earth's hot streak continues with warmest May since at least 1880"

"Another month, another shattered global temperature record. According to preliminary readings from NASA, May 2016 was the warmest such month on record for the planet, dating back to 1880. Global average surface temperatures were 0.93 degrees Celsius, or 1.67 degrees Fahrenheit, above average for the month, beating out the old record, which was set in May 2014. This makes May the 8th straight warmest month on record in NASA's database. According to the World Meteorological Organization, it was also the warmest northern hemisphere spring on record, in part due to much milder than average conditions in the Arctic. If the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) also ranks May as the warmest such month, it would make it the 13th straight warmest month in NOAA's records, which has never happened before. (Although the two agencies use similar data, they differ in how they analyze global temperature measurements.)"

See more from Mashable.com HERE:

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"Alaska Continues to Bake, on Track For Hottest Year"

"Alaska just can’t seem to shake the fever it has been running. This spring was easily the hottest the state has ever recorded and it contributed to a year-to-date temperature that is more than 10°F (5.5°C) above average, according to data released Wednesday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.The Lower 48, meanwhile, had its warmest spring since the record-breaking scorcher of 2012.While May as a whole was only slightly above average — thanks in part to whiplashing weather from the beginning of the month to the end — every state in the contiguous U.S. had warmer-than-normal temperatures for the spring as a whole."

See the full story from ClimateCentral.org HERE:

 


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And So It Begins: Weather Market 2016

"I think it’s safe to say that weather market 2016 has officially begun,” he said, noting how the latest weather forecasts are starting to move toward a hotter, drier outlook. “They’re calling for less rain in the central and eastern portions of the Corn Belt. Those areas are going to see rain in the next three or four days,” he added, “but everything beyond that continue to look very warm and pretty dry for a lot of the Corn Belt.” Those weather concerns are attracting the attention of more than just farmers. The funds, facing few good opportunities for their investments, are pouring money into commodities."

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Thanks for checking in and have a great rest of your week! Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

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Summer heat surges in for Father's Day weekend - Severe Storms Sunday?