Heading Into a Drier Pattern - Finally

"Paul, can't you DO something about all this rain?" Perhaps, but I choose not to. You just don't want to mess with Mother Nature. Ever.

My theory: any modern-day weather modification business would be comprised of one (mad) scientist and 49 attorneys, because you'd be getting sued every other day. It's hard to keep all the people happy all the time.

Don't even try.

Sunday's soaker brought July rainfall up to 6.5 inches, almost 3 inches wetter than average. A wet bias continues, although I see a welcome dry spell most of this week. Historically, Augusts in Minnesota trend drier, with a better chance of salvaging weekend plans than June. Just saying.

Monday's hint of autumn gives way to a slow warming trend this week (low 80s for highs the latter half of the week). Models hint at a few T- showers by Sunday, but if you need a few days in a row devoid of mud, this week holds real promise.

Sunday's tornadoes spun up with less warning than usual, a reminder to always pay attention and never let your guard down with the weather. 

10-Day ECMWF Rainfall Prediction. The European model prints out relatively light rainfall amounts between now and August 8; heaviest amounts (over 1") for parts of southwestern Minnesota. Overall we seem to be sliding into a drier pattern. Finally. Map: WeatherBell.

Lukewarm. I see temperatures close to average the next 2 weeks; no sign (yet) of a blistering hot front reaching our lofty latitude, but much of the western USA will sizzle into August, based on NOAA's latest 500mb forecast from GFS.

6 Tornadoes Across Minnesota and Wisconsin on Sunday. The local Twin Cities office of the National Weather Survey sent a damage survey team out, and they confirmed 6 tornadoes (EF-0 to EF-1 strength, with estimated winds of 105 mph). Details here.

Las Vegas Grasshopper Invasion So Big It Shows Up on Doppler Radar. CNN.com has details: "...In viewing the radar, CNN meteorologist Allison Chinchar said it looked like there were two storms over the Vegas area: one north of the city (that was actual rain) and another right over Las Vegas. But the second one wasn't moving as rain normally would, she said. "It looked as though it should be torrentially downpouring in Las Vegas," said Chinchar. By changing the settings on the radar, meteorologists could see that the other "storm" was actually the massive hordes of grasshoppers that have settled over the city in recent days, Chinchar said..."

Firefighters Are the Happiest Workers in America. Turns out there isn’t much of a correlation between making a ton of money and being happy. Bloomberg reports: “…Bloomberg’s Work Wise, our special report on how young professionals can get ahead, make money and give back, shows that some of the most contented workers don’t rake in big bucks at all. Firefighters have the highest level of job satisfaction, even though their median annual income is just under $50,000, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Just one of the top five happiest professions—pediatricians—comes in at the high end of the annual salary range…"

Do Not Show Up on a Cruise Ship Dressed as a Clown. CNN Travel has the cautionary tale - here are a few excerpts: "...The P&O cruise ship Britannia was on the final leg of a cruise to Norway's fjords from Southampton, in southeast England, when the fracas broke out, ITV reported. A brawl started on the 16th floor restaurant on Thursday, when a passenger appeared dressed as a clown. The passenger's attire apparently upset some of the guests, Gaisford said… "This upset one of their party because they'd specifically booked a cruise with no fancy dress. It led to a violent confrontation." In the United Kingdom, fancy dress means wearing a costume.  "There was blood everywhere," Gaisford wrote. "Passengers used furniture and plates as weapons..."

78 F. maximum temperature in the Twin Cities on Monday.

83 F. average high on July 29.

82 F. high on July 29, 2018.

July 30, 1971: A cool spell across Minnesota brings frost to northern Minnesota. Freezing temperatures are reported as far south as Pipestone.

TUESDAY: Sunny and pleasant. Winds: N 3-8. High: 76

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny and breezy. Winds: SE 5-10. Wake-up: 58. High: 78

THURSDAY: Mix of clouds and sun, still quiet. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 63. High: near 80

FRIDAY: Intervals of sticky sunshine. Winds: SE 8-13. Wake-up: 66. High: 83

SATURDAY: Partly sunny, lake-worthy. Winds: S 5-10. Wake-up: 67. High: 83

SUNDAY: Unsettled, shower or T-shower. Winds: NW 8-13. Wake-up: 68. High: near 80

MONDAY: More sunshine, pleasantly warm. Winds: S 5-10. Wake-up: 66. High: 83

Climate Stories....

Small Towns Fear They are Unprepared for Future, Climate-Driven Flooding. A story at KCUR.com caught my eye; here's a clip: "...Much of the Mississippi, and the massive tributaries that feed it, stayed flooded until June. That meant more than 140 days of cascading disasters for hundreds of small towns from Minnesota to Louisiana and catastrophic damage to ranch and farm communities that dot the Mississippi's swollen branches. It was the most prolonged, widespread flood fight in U.S. history. The entire Mississippi River basin — an area that drains about 40 percent of the continental United States — was at flood stage this spring for the first time in recorded history, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers..."

Map credit: Analysis of data provided by Pew Research Center. Credit: Sean McMinn and Nick Underwood/NPR.

Floods Force Reckoning in Heartland: Headlines and links via Climate Nexus: "The devastating floods that ravaged the Midwest this spring are forcing farmers to reckon with a "new reality" with climate change, a new CBS documentary shows. "A Climate Reckoning in the Heartland," which premiered Sunday night, looks at how farmers are grappling with the overwhelming loss of their crops and thinking about new solutions to prepare for the future. "When I was a kid, an inch of rain, or an inch and a half of rain, was a big deal. Now it's like we get four- or five-inch rains all the time, or six-inch rains, even. That was unheard of," Nebraskan farmer Brett Adams told CBS. Floodwaters inundated 80 percent of Adams's lands this spring. "I'm not a climate change guy, as far as climate change, global warming, or any of that stuff. But have I seen the weather change in, say, my 20-year farming career? Absolutely." (CBSN)

File image: NOAA

What is Regenerative Farming? Experts Say It Can Combat Climate Change. CBS News reports; here's an excerpt: "...After coming to terms with the fact that his multigenerational family farm and others like it may not survive if unprecedented flooding events become the new normal, he decided something needed to change. His business, GC Resolve, offers grassroots education and mobilizes the general public for several initiatives, including regenerative farming. Christensen encourages farmers to use a range of regenerative methods to prevent soil erosion and degradation. Utilizing cover crops, or plants sown after harvesting the farm's primary crop, can help to anchor the soil in place, slow down rainfall, and increase biodiversity..."

File photo credit: "Historic flooding in March 2019 left some towns and farms along the Missouri River completely underwater." CBS News.

Past 5 Years Hottest on Record, Globally. Climate Central has details: "...Using re-baselined NOAA and NASA data, we find that this year is on pace to be the 3rd hottest on record globally—a ranking that would maintain the most recent five years as the hottest five on record. While U.S. heat hasn’t been as extreme this year, record rainfall has plagued the country for months

Across the world, this year has been loaded with record high temperatures. Here are a few highlights: 

  • Last month was the hottest June on record—both for Europe and for the globe (NASA data — beating 2016 by about 0.2oF).
  • Anchorage shattered its previous temperature record by 5 degrees—in a year that has had near-unprecedented melting of Arctic sea ice as well. 
  • Australia suffered its hottest summer on record, causing blackouts and mass deaths of native wildlife. 
  • Nationwide record highs were set in several countries, from France and Angola to Cuba and Vietnam..."

What Happens When Parts of South Asia Become Unlivable? CNN.com takes a look at the trends: "...The flooding comes as India was still reeling from a weeks-long water crisis amid heavy droughts and heatwaves across the country which killed at least 137 people. Experts said the country has five years to address severe water shortages, caused by steadily depleting groundwater supplies, or over 100 million people will left be without ready access to water. In Afghanistan, drought has devastated traditional farming areas, forcing millions of people to move or face starvation, while in Bangladesh, heavy monsoon flooding has marooned entire communities and cut-off vital roads. Especially at risk are the hundreds of thousands of Rohingya refugees living in fragile, makeshift camps along the country's border with Myanmar. This is the sharp edge of the climate crisis..."

What Would Jesus Do About Climate Change? Mother Jones shines a light on the spiritual dimension (imperative) of acting on climate change; touching people's hearts as well as their brains: "...Yet the number of actual Christian deniers has plummeted over the past four years as mounting natural disasters, increasingly grave scientific forecasts and a rapidly growing political movement erase doubt over the cause of planetary changes. And new research published last week shows that religious messaging on climate resonates with Christians who already understand the crisis. Providing “a better life for our children and grandchildren” came out as the top motivation among Christians and non-Christians to reduce planet-warming emissions, according to the study published in the journal Science Communication. But Christian respondents said they were also inspired by a need to “protect God’s creation...”

Jay Inslee: Climate Change is a Winning Campaign Issue - And President Trump Knows It. Here's a snippet of an Op-Ed at The New York Times: "I’ve heard it my whole career, from pundits, special interests and even political consultants: Just shut up about climate change if you want to be elected. They set up a false dichotomy between the economy and the environment, saying you can’t fight for good jobs and for clean air. That was bad advice then, and it’s even worse advice now. There is a change happening: Americans really feel climate change in their daily lives — and they are demanding leadership from their politicians like never before. In my campaign, I’ve seen how climate change — and the coal, oil and gas industries fueling it — have become personal problems for many families..."

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Best Week of Summer Rolls On - Slow Warming Trend Into Weekend