Tuesday Soaker

We haven't had a day like Tuesday in quite a while. Steady rain, heavy at times, led to numerous puddles and slow commutes. Rain will continue on Wednesday, but it won't be as heavy. Hang in there... Sunshine and mild temperatures return by the end of the week.

"Aug-tober"
By Paul Douglas

If the vast majority of the world's scientists are right we can expect more head-scratching weather moments going forward. Extremes that make us step back and do a triple-take.

A "Black Swan" is defined as: "an unpredictable or unforeseen event, typically one with extreme consequences.

"Like a hurricane merging with a nor'easter and turning northwest toward land in late October (Sandy in 2012), 10-inch rains in Duluth, Minnesota (2012), MSP rains in January, or heat waves and droughts that are longer and much more severe than the norm (Russia in 2010, California from 2011-2015). More 2-4 sigma events; up to 4 times the standard deviation.

Yesterday's drenching rain and mid 60s was typical for October 2. Maybe not a true Black Swan, but more evidence of a new level of volatility in the system. I'm still optimistic the markets will come up with the solutions we're going to need to adapt, and thrive.

Showers taper today as winds gust to 30 mph. Warm sun returns as highs surge into the 80s Friday and Saturday before weekend thunder and another freakishly cool push early next week.

The GFS model brings 90s into town the last few days of August. A wild ride - hang on tight!
________________________

TUESDAY NIGHT: Spotty showers . Low: 58. Winds: Turning SSW 10-15.

WEDNESDAY: Feels like fall. Breezy and cooler with lingering showers. High: 64. Winds: WNW 15-30

WENESDAY NIGHT: Breezy with lingering showers. Low: 54. Winds: WNW 15-30

THURSDAY: Sunny and drier. Not as windy. Wake-up: 54. High: 78

FRIDAY:Warm sun, feels like August again. Wake-up: 61. High: 83.

SATURDAY: Sticky sun, strong T-storms late. Wake-up: 65. High: 84

SUNDAY: Gusty and cooler, few showers. Wake-up: 62. High: 67.

MONDAY: More clouds than sun, Septemberish. Wake-up: 55. High: 66.

TUESDAY: Roller coaster continues, mild sun. Wake-up: 58. High: 76
__________________________

This Day in Weather History
August 19th

2007: Record 24-hour maximum rainfall of 15.10 inches set in Hokah, MN (Houston County). This 24-hour total contributed to the record monthly maximum rainfall of 23.86 inches that was set in Hokah during August of 2007.

1980: Strong winds at Belle Plaine severely damage five planes.
___________________________

Average High/Low for Minneapolis
August 19th

Average High: 80F (Record: 97F set in 1976)
Average Low: 62F (Record: 39F set in 1967)
____________________________

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
August 19th

Sunrise: 6:19am
Sunset 8:13pm

*Daylight lost since yesterday: 2 minutes & 50 seconds
*Daylight lost sin summer solstice (June 21): ~1 hour & 43 minutes
______________________________

Moon Phase for August 19th at Midnight
2.5 Day Before First Quarter


____________________________________

Minneapolis Temperature Trend

Temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday, more reminiscent of late September and early October will give way to near average reading again by the end of the week/weekend ahead. Interestingly, extended forecasts are suggesting a pretty big surge in the temperature department by day 1 of the MN State Fair... perfect timing, right? It's still a bit too early to believe it, but it's something to keep an eye on.


_____________________________________

Wednesday Weather Outlook

The vigorous low pressure system moving through the Upper Midwest will still play a part in our weather on Wednesday. Highs in the upper 50s and low/mid 60s will be more reminiscent of early October rather than mid August. Rain and gusty winds will make for another fairly raw day...

Wednesday Weather Outlook

Winds surrounding the area of low pressure will be quite impressive on Wednesday. Sustained winds across western and southern MN will be in the 20mph range with wind gusts approaching 30mph+!

Rainfall Potential

Rainfall potential through PM Friday suggests heavier rain still possible across parts of NE Minnesota as the storm system lifts into Canada. The heaviest/steadiest rain has pretty much wrapped up for the Twin Cities, but lingering showers may add up to another 0.25" to 0.50" across parts of central Minnesota. 


____________________________________

National Weather Outlook

Our fall-like storm system will begin to loosen it's grip (a little) across parts of the mid-section of the nation on Wednesday, but it'll be more noticeable on Thursday as the center of the storm lifts north toward the Hudson Bay. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms will push along and east of the Appalachians. Meanwhile, note how quite it looks across much of the rest of the nation on Thursday!

Severe Threat Wednesday

...SUMMARY... A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY OVER A PORTION OF THE GREAT LAKES...LOWER OHIO VALLEY...LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...AND NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST TEXAS. LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ...SYNOPSIS... SYNOPTIC UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER THE CNTRL U.S. WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EWD TOWARD THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL ROTATE THROUGH THIS FEATURE INCLUDING A LEAD IMPULSE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NRN GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL BE FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY PRIMARY VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH NRN WI AND THE WRN UPPER PENINSULA OF MI LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. PRIMARY SFC LOW WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES AND LIKELY BE LOCATED OVER NRN WI BY MID DAY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SSWWD INTO NRN AND SWRN TX. THE LOW WILL ADVANCE NWD INTO SRN ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY SWWD TO NEAR THE TX COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

Severe Threat Thursday

...SUMMARY... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK...SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES TO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ...SYNOPSIS... PLAINS UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EJECT INTO THE MIDWEST REGION BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. FOCUSED MID-LEVEL 12HR HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO ON/QC DURING THE DAY...WELL NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...AS 500MB SPEED MAX TRANSLATES INTO WRN QC. AS A RESULT OF THIS FEATURE...TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS TO A POSITION FROM THE OH/PA BORDER...SWWD ACROSS THE ERN TN VALLEY INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF TX BY 18Z. WITH LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHIFTING INTO CANADA...DIABATIC HEATING AND WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN SCT CONVECTION ALONG A BROAD CORRIDOR FROM WRN NY...SWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...SWWD INTO DEEP SOUTH TX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS ZONE EXHIBIT POOR LAPSE RATES AND WEAK SHEAR...THOUGH AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT WITH PW VALUES GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 2 INCHES. ASIDE FROM A WET MICROBURST OR GUSTY WINDS INDUCED BY MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE TOO LOW TO WARRANT SEVERE PROBS DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP ALONG STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS NM/WEST TX. BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING WILL BE MORE EFFICIENT ACROSS THIS REGION BUT LIKELY INADEQUATE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

5 Day Precipitation Outlook

Soaking rains fell across parts of the Midwest over the last couple of days, but it appears that weather conditions will start to dry rapidly after Wednesday. The heaviest precipitation through the end of the week looks to move east of the Mississippi Valley. Unfortunately, dry weather looks to persist across much of the Western U.S., where incredible drought and massive wildfires continue.


_____________________________________

Hello Danny!

As of Tuesday afternoon (CDT) the National Hurricane Center starting issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Danny in the central Atlantic. The loop below showed T.S. Danny by Tuesday afternoon, note that it appears to have a fairly broad area of circulation, which indicates a fairly decent amount of organization.

Tracking Danny

Here's the latest from the NHC:
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Danny was located near latitude 10.9 North, longitude 37.5 West. Danny is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). Danny is expected to turn west-northwest on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) on Tuesday afternoon with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Danny is expected to become a hurricane by Thursday.

______________________________

Pacific Problems

"Eye" can see you! The circulations in association with Typhoon GONI and ATSONI are pretty impressive... they actually look like eyes, don't they?

Tracking Typhooons

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Typhoon GONI is the storm to watch as the forecast track takes it close to Taiwan by the end of the week/weekend. Keep in mind that Typhoon SOUDELOR slammed the island a couple of weekends ago with significant impacts. Typhoon ATSANI on the other hand looks to track more northwesterly, but could potentially become a Super Typhoon at some point Wednesday with sustained winds near 160mph! YIKES!!

Typhoon ATSANI

According the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Typhoon ATSANI was a equivalent to a category 4 hurricane with sustained winds near 140mph on Tuesday evening (CDT).

Typhoon GONI

According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Typhoon GONI was equivalent to a category 3 hurricane with sustained winds near 115mph on Tuesday evening (CDT).

Thanks for checking in and have a great rest of your week. Don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX


 

Older Post

Tuesday Soaker Ahead

Newer Post

Improving End of Week; Strong Storms Return PM Saturday