The extended forecast through the end of the month shows a pretty big warm up as we head into the weekend with highs approaching the lower/middle 90s in the Twin Cities. The images below suggest the GFS (American model) and ECMWF (European model) temperature outlook. Temps will fall back into the upper 70s and low/mid 80s as we approach the Summer Solstice next week.
"2017 Broke Records for Number of Flooded Days on U.S. Coasts"
"Due to the combined impacts of climate change and upcoming El Niño conditions, coastal high tide flooding in the U.S. will be up to 60 percent more frequent in 2018 than it was 20 years ago, the most recent high tide flooding report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), announced Wednesday, projected. The report, NOAA's 2017 State of High Tide Flooding and 2018 Outlook, also found that the 2017 meteorological year (May 2017 - April 2018) broke records for the number of high tide flooding days nationally, for an average of six days per coastal location observed. The report predicted that, going forward, 2018 and the years after would continue to break records due to sea level rise, and that the rate of increased flooding might accelerate. Overall, the average number of flooded days has already doubled in the past 30 years. Flooding is increasing most quickly along the Southeast Atlantic coast, up by 160 percent since 2000. Flood frequencies are also significantly increasing along the Northeast Atlantic coast, at 100 percent, and the Eastern and Western Gulf Coasts, at 50 percent."
Carlotta In the Eastern Pacific
Carlotta became the third named storm in the Eastern Pacific this weekend. However, it only intensified to Tropical Storm status, which is less than it's predecessors; Aletta and Bud, which both became category 4 hurricanes. As of midday Saturday, Carlotta had sustained winds of 50mph just prior to landfall in the southern shores of Mexico.
Here was NOAA's NHC official forecast just prior to landfall of Carlotta with Mexico's southern shores. The good news is that winds won't be so much of an issue, but heavy rainfall will be any issue for some.
Activity in the Atlantic?
According to NOAA's NHC, there is a wave of energy in the Atlantic basin that has a LOW probability of tropical formation over the next 5 days. This area of unsettled weather might not have enough time to gather enough strength to become a tropical system, but it will likely bring heavier rain to places along the western and northern portions of the Gulf Coast region.
Did you know that lightning ranks as one of the top weather related killers in the U.S.? An average of nearly 50 people are killed each year in the United States and so far this year, 5 people have died from lightning; 2 in Florida, 1 in Texas, 1 in Tennesee, and now 1 in Arkansas. Interestingly, from 2008-2017, 222 males have died, while only 63 females have died.
According to NOAA's SPC, there have been ONLY 487 preliminary tornadoes so far this year (through June 15th), which is quite a bit less than what we had at this time over the last several years. 2018, no question, has been a very quiet year in the national tornado department. Interestingly, there were 1,432 tornadoes at this time in 2011; that year ended with 1,897 tornadoes, which is nearly 500 more than the short-term 2005-2015 average.
Average Tornadoes in June By State
Here's the average number of tornadoes during the month of June by state. Texas sees the most with 24, but interestingly, Minnesota averages 15 tornado this month, which is the most out of any other month during the year. Comparitively, Minnesota averages 11 in July and 5 in August, so we are entering our typical severe weather season here over the several weeks.
1.) Heavy rain across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and the Southern Plains, Mon-Wed, Jun 18-Jun 20.
2.) Heavy rain across portions of the Central Plains, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Northern Plains, the Great Lakes, the Central Rockies, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Ohio Valley, Mon-Thu, Jun 18-Jun 21.
3.) Flooding possible across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Northern Plains.
4.) Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Ohio Valley and the Northern Plains.
5.) Flooding likely across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and the Ohio Valley.
6.) Excessive heat across portions of the Central Plains, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, the Ohio Valley, and the Upper Mississippi Valley, Mon, Jun 18.
7.) Excessive heat across portions of the Southeast, the Southern Appalachians, the Mid-Atlantic, and the Central Appalachians, Mon-Wed, Jun 18-Jun 20.
8.) Much above normal temperatures across portions of California, the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Rockies, and the Northern Great Basin, Mon-Fri, Jun 18-Jun 22.
9.) Heavy rain across portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Mon, Jun 18.
10.) Slight risk of much above normal temperatures for portions of California, the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Rockies, and the Northern Great Basin, Sat-Mon, Jun 23-Jun 25.
11.) Moderate risk of much above normal temperatures for portions of California, the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Rockies, and the Northern Great Basin, Sat-Sun, Jun 23-Jun 24.
12.) High risk of much above normal temperatures for portions of the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Great Basin, Sat, Jun 23.
13.) Slight risk of heavy precipitation for portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southern Appalachians, the Southeast, and the Ohio Valley, Sat-Sun, Jun 23-Jun 24.
14.) Severe Drought across the Central Plains, the Central Rockies, the Central Great Basin, the Northern Plains, the Northern Great Basin, the Southern Rockies, the Middle Mississippi Valley, California, the Southern Plains, and the Southwest.
Temperature Anomaly on Saturday
The temperature anomaly across North America from Saturday showed WELL above average temperatures across much of the Central US and into central Canada, while cooler than average temps were found across in the Pacific Northwest and in the Northeast.
It has been a pretty warm stretch of weather over the last few days in the Central US and as we head into the early part of the week ahead it'll still be warm, but not as hot. The blob of heat looks to shift east through the Great Lakes, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states as we head through the next few days, while cooler than average temps will continue in the Western part of the country.
Weather Outlook Ahead
The weather loop below shows fairly active weather continuing across the Central US with strong to severe thunderstorms across the Upper Midwest and flooding rains possible as well. Note that some of the moisture moving up from the Southwest to the Upper Midwest was associated with Hurricane Bud from the Eastern Pacific. There will also be areas of heavy rain moving in across the Gulf Coast and Texas as a wave of energy approaches from the tropics there.
7 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's WPC, the 7-day precipitation outlook suggests areas of heavy rain continuing across parts of the Central US. Several inches of rain can't be ruled out along with localized flooding. Interesting to see that much of the nation looks to get in on some precipitation action with the exception of a few spots in the Western US, mainly California.
Here is the national drought map from Thursday, June 12th, which shows extreme and exceptional drought conditions across much of the Four-Corners region and into the Central and Southern Plains. Hopefully the remnants of Bud will help to less the drought in some places there. However, note the Southeast is drought free now thanks to a VERY wet month of May!
Another Hot, muggy and stormy Day for Dad
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.
My late Father was my biggest cheerleader. Always very encouraging and proud of every accomplishment that I had, big or small. It has been 8 years since his passing, but I can still hear his contagious laugh and remember his witty jokes. Happy Father's Day to all the Dads out there!
Well, it certainly has been an interesting past couple of days. Between the excessive heat and stormy weather, I'd wager a soggy bagel that most are ready for a dose of sublime sunshine. Unfortunately, the sweaty weather continues today as heat index values top out near 100 degrees this afternoon.
NOAA's SPC has also highlighted a risk of severe weather across parts of the state as our slow and stubborn frontal boundary meanders east. Interestingly, backyard rain gauges will be sampling remnants of Hurricane Bud that was a category 4 storm in the Eastern Pacific earlier this week. Go figure! With that said, some of rain could be heavy today with localized flooding.
Hey at least your lawn is green and the birds are clean since bird baths are full again!
SUNDAY: Hot & muggy with strong PM storms. Winds: SSW 5-15. High: 89.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Showers and storms continue in S. MN. Winds: SW 5-10. Low: 68
MONDAY: Wet start. Lingering T-storms in S. MN. Winds: N 5-15. High: 78.
TUESDAY: Finally drying out. Mild sunshine. Winds: ENE 5-10. Wake-up: 62. High: 79.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny, dry and pleasant. Winds: E 5. Wake-up: 60. High: 82.
THURSDAY:Late day rumbles possible south. Winds: E 5-15. Wake-up: 62. High: 83.
FRIDAY: Showers and T-storms return. Winds: ESE 5-15. Wake-up: 64. High: 80.
SATURDAY: Spotty thundershowers possible. Winds: SW 5-15. Wake-up: 62. High: 78.
This Day in Weather History
2010: The largest single-day tornado outbreak in Minnesota history occurs with 48 tornadoes across the state. This outbreak would set the stage for a record breaking tornado year in Minnesota that finished with 113 tornadoes, the most of any state in the US that year. There were three EF-4 tornadoes and four EF-3 tornadoes in Minnesota. Four tornado fatalities occurred, which was the highest daily number since July 5, 1978.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
Average High: 80F (Record: 97F set in 1933)
Average Low: 60F (Record: 42F set in 1960)
Record Rainfall: 1.72" set in 1883
Record Snowfall: NONE
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
Hours of Daylight: ~15 hours & 36 minutes
Daylight GAINED since yesterday: ~18 seconds
Daylight GAINED since winter solstice (December 21st): 6 Hour 49 Minutes
Moon Phase for June 17th at Midnight
2.2 Days Before First Quarter Moon
Temp Outlook For Sunday
Sunday will be another warm and humid day across the southern half of Minnesota and into Wisconsin. The slow moving front will finally start shifting east, which will allow slightly cooler and less humid conditions to move in by the early week time frame. However, As the frontal boundary moves through the region on Sunday, another round of strong to severe storms and locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Heat index values on Sunday across the southern half of the state could reach the mid/upper 90s for some.
According to NOAA's CPC, June 23rd - 29th will be warmer than average across much of the nation with the exception of parts of the Southwest. Also note that much of central Alaska will be cooler than average.
"Firefighters Are Warning Parents About the Little-Known Dangers of Outdoor Water Hoses"
"It’s a garden tool that seems pretty harmless, but firefighters say it can actually do a lot of damage: the outdoor water hose. How? As it turns out, water left in outdoor hoses can reach up 140 degrees in hot summer months, and firefighters in Las Vegas want parents to know about the risk before spraying their little ones or hooking the hose up to sprinklers."
"SHOULD YOU BE WORRIED ABOUT YOUR WATER SUPPLY?"
"Cape Town was in danger this year of becoming the first big city to run out of water, which forced the South African metropolis to impose severe water-saving measures to avert “Day Zero.” Research from scientists at NASA and the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, shows that worldwide freshwater reserves have changed drastically since 2002. The decline in water availability in regions such as northern India, northeast China, the Caspian Sea and across the Middle East has been blamed mainly on irrigation and groundwater pumping. “Any of these spots on the map are potential ‘Cape Towns’ in future,” says Jay Famiglietti, one of the authors of the study, referring to the 34 areas that showed the greatest changes. “Freshwater availability is changing, and water insecurity is much closer than we think.”
"The June solstice is almost here — here's how it works and why it starts both summer and winter"
"The June solstice of 2018 will happen on Thursday, June 21, at 6:07 a.m. ET. To people who live in Earth's northern hemisphere, this marks the longest day of the year. It also signals the end of spring, the arrival of summer, and a gradual retreat toward the fall season, which is marked by an equinox. For those in the southern hemisphere, it's exactly the opposite: The June solstice marks the start of winter, when days have reached their shortest and darkest, though daylight will last longer and grow stronger as the September equinox approaches. Two things drive this all-important seasonal clock: Earth's tilted axis and the planet's orbit around the sun."
"Drought Battle: Israel to Use Desalinated Water to Rescue the Sea of Galilee"
"JERUSALEM, Israel – Following five consecutive years of below-average winter rainfall, Israeli cabinet ministers passed a $30 million measure to replenish the Sea of Galilee and seven northern streams severely affected by the drought. The Dead Sea and the Jordan River are also suffering from the drought. For the first time ever, desalinated water will be pumped into the Kinneret to help replenish its water level, as well as the streams in the north. The plan also includes construction of two new desalination plants, one on the coast of the Western Galilee and a second in Sorek, where the world's most advanced and largest desalination plant came on line in 2014."
"'Australia doesn’t realise’: worsening drought pushes farmers to the brink"
"In the south-west corner of NSW’s Liverpool plains, in an area called Bundella, farmer Megan Kuhn runs beef cattle and merino sheep with her husband, Martin. They have 400 breeding cows that will calve in six weeks. Shortly, 89 of those cows will leave the property, sold to an abattoir because the cost of feeding the animals during drought has become too great. “There is nowhere to send them to pasture so they are going to be slaughtered,” Kuhn says. “We’re killing a cow and a calf at this late stage of pregnancy. The drought is so widespread there’s just no options left for stock producers to put them anywhere. That’s why it’s so heartbreaking. “Australia doesn’t realise. The cattle we’ve got are rapidly diminishing because of the drought.” Further north, about 20 km from Mullaley, Margaret Fleck is seeing conditions on her property she has not encountered in the 20 years she has been there. She and her partner Paul run beef cattle, producing grass-fed beef for the domestic and export markets. December was the end of their seventh calendar year of below-average rainfall. In the 12 months to May this year, they have had just over 50% of their annual average rainfall."
"Extreme Hurricane Rainfall Expected to Increase in a Warmer World"
"Hurricane Harvey of August 2017 brought the greatest rainfall event ever recorded in the U.S. by a tropical cyclone—an astonishing 60.58” in Nederland, Texas. The resulting flood disaster was the second costliest weather-related disaster in U.S. and world history--$125 billion, according to NOAA. Naturally, this gave rise to questions about whether the rains were made worse by global warming, and how we might expect tropical cyclone rainfall to change in a warming climate. One of the more confident predictions hurricane scientists can make on the future of hurricanes in a warmer climate is that they will dump heavier rains, due to increased moisture in the atmosphere. There is a growing body of literature showing that heavy precipitation events of all kinds—including those from tropical cyclones (which include all hurricanes, tropical storms, and tropical depressions)—have already grown more common. Four papers in the past year have been published that found that human-caused global warming significantly increased the odds of the heavy rains like Hurricane Harvey brought to Texas. In this post, we take a comprehensive look at what the published peer-reviewed science says on the expected increase in heavy rains from tropical cyclones in a warmer world"