Minneapolis Weekend Forecast
Weather conditions over the next few days look a bit unsettled, but the good news is that it doesn't look like an all out washout. Friday will be quite sticky with feels like temps in the mid to upper 80s with a few isolated thunderstorms possible. Saturday will a touch cooler, but it also looks a bit more unsettled with scattered showers and storms possible across the region. A cool front will slide east of the region on Sunday allowing cool and breezy to settle in for the day. There could also be a few lingering showers and storms, but most of the accumulations should be across the northern half of the state.

Statewide Temperature Outlook For Friday
Friday will be a fairly warm day across the region with temperatures running nearly +10F to +15F above average! Keep in mind that There may also be a few isolated showers and storms across the region, but the best chance looks to arrive late Friday night into Saturday as a storm system approaches from the west. 
Warm & Sticky Friday - Forecast Peak Heat Index & Dewpoints
Take a look at how the forecast peak heat index and dewpoints below. It certainly will feel like summer once again with dewpoints climbing into the upper 60s and lower 70s and heat index values approaching 90F. I don't think it'll be quite as hot as it was on Tuesday of this week, but it'll be close. If you're a fan of the summer-like heat and humidity, soak it up now! It won't last forever as Fall is right around the corner.
Thunder Chance Returns Tuesday
Here's the weather outlook from AM Friday to AM Sunday as our next storm system blows through. It appears that a few t-storms will be possible across the state on Friday, but the bulk of the storms will be across the Dakotas late Friday. The leftovers should push through Minnesota on Saturday with additional storms developing late Saturday into Sounday southeast of the Twin Cities metro. Again, I don't think it'll be a complete washout, but there could be wet periods over the next 2 to 3 days. Stay tuned. 
Rainfall Potential Through AM Monday
According to NOAA's WPC, the rainfall potential through the weekend looks somewhat heavy in a few spots, but it won't be very widespread, Some of the heaviest will be found across parts of northern and northwestern MN with some 1" to 2" tallies possible. There could be a few heavier pockets across the rest of the state, but again it won't be widespread.

MN DNR Fall Color Update

According to the MN DNR fall color map, fall colors are already starting to take shape across the state especially across the northern half of the state, where some 50%-75% colors are showing up. Things will really starting changing fast across the state, so don't blink. 
Typical Peak Color Across the State
According to the MN DNR, peak color typically arrives across the far northern part of the state in mid/late September, while folks in the Twin Cities have to wait until late September/mid October. It's hard to believe, but fall colors will be here before you know it!

First Frosts of the Season Nearing...

Looking back at the last 30 years of data at the MSP Airport, the average first frost (32F or colder) is October 12th, which is less than 1 month from now! The earliest was on September 20th back in 1991, but the latest was November 18th in 2016. Last year, our first frost was on October 11th.


Soggy September So Far...

It certainly has been a wet start to September. In fact, many locations around the state and around the region are running several inches above average. Green Bay, WI has had more than 5" of rain so far this month, which is by far the wettest start to any September on record! If Green Bay didn't see anymore rain this month, it would be the 3rd wettest September on record. Rochester, MN is off to its 3rd wettest start to any September on record.
2nd Wettest Start to Any Year on Record at the MSP Airport
It certainly has been a wet go of things across the Upper Midwest this year. In fact, the Twin Cities has had 34.36" of precipitation this year, which is the 2nd wettest start to any year on record (through September 13th). The top spot through that date belongs to 1892, when 35.08" of precipitation fell through that date. By the way, if we didn't see anymore precipitation through the rest of the year, this would be the 23rd wettest year on record at the MSP Airport.

Fall Ragweed Allergies

AACHOO!! Fall allergy sufferers have been having some issues lately, but the good news is that pollen levels have been a little lower as of late. According to Pollen.com, our pollen levels will be holding in the low-medium range over the next several days.


"What Is a Ragweed Allergy?"

"Ragweed pollen is one of the most common causes of seasonal allergies in the United States. Many people have an adverse immune response when they breathe in the pollen. Normally, the immune system defends the body against harmful invaders, such as viruses and bacteria, to ward off illnesses. In people with ragweed allergies, the immune system mistakes ragweed pollen as a dangerous substance. This causes the immune system to produce chemicals that fight against the pollen, even though it’s harmless. The reaction leads to a variety of irritating symptoms, such as sneezing, running nose, and itchy eyes. Approximately 26 percent of Americans have a ragweed allergy. The allergy is unlikely to go away once it has developed. However, symptoms can be treated with medications and allergy shots. Making certain lifestyle changes may also help relieve the symptoms associated with ragweed allergies."

See more from HeathLine.com HERE:


"Climate Change Is Going to Make Ragweed Allergies Even Worse, Study Finds"

"There’s no shortage of horrible things that will become more common in the near future due to climate change, like coastal flooding, extreme weather, and disease-causing ticks, to name a few. But new research published Thursday in PLOS-One adds another annoyance to the list: Allergy-causing ragweed. The common ragweed, or Ambrosia artemisiifolia as it’s formally called, is a voracious plant known for quickly overtaking whatever environment it’s suited to inhabit. The plant grows annually through the warmer parts of the year in the U.S. Importantly for us, it’s also an abundant source of pollen, making it one of the leading triggers of hay fever and asthma. Though native to parts of North America, ragweed has invaded much of Europe, Asia, and other areas with relatively temperate weather, including some of the Southern United States. Given ragweed’s love of warmer temperatures, scientists have feared that climate change has and will continue to help it spread further. There’s already research suggesting that this is happening in Europe, but the authors of this latest study say theirs is the first to consider the future of ragweed in North America."

See more from Gizmodo HERE:


"Phenology: September 10th, 2019"

If you've got a spare moment, have a listen to this wonderful podcast from John Latimer, a resident phenologist in northern Minnesota on KAXE. John is very knowledeable in the outdoor world and how certain events in nature are related to changes in the weather and climate. Here's the latest phenology report from last week: "Phenology is the biological nature of events as they relate to climate.  Every week John Latimer takes a close look at the blooms and changes happening while considering how the timing measures up to past years in his Phenology Report.  He's full of clues and changing hues indicating that fall is happening in this week's report.  Take a listen!"

US Drought Monitor

According to the latest US Drought Monitor (updated on September 17th), 0.00% of the state of Minnesota was either in a drought or abnormally dry! The last time 0.00% of the state was drought free was earlier this year in mid May. This has been an extremely wet year, no question!


2019 Yearly Precipitation So Far...

2019 has been a pretty wet year across much of the Upper Midwest. In fact, many locations are several inches above average precipitation, some even in the double digits above average, including the Twin Cities, which is more than 10" above average so far this year and at its 2nd wettest start on record. Unbelieveably, Rochester is already at its wettest year on record and it's only mid September!

Flash Flood Emergency Northeast Side Of Houston Metro - Heavy Rain Band Sinking Southward Into Houston
Praedictix Briefing Update: Late Thursday morning, September 19th, 2019

Heavy Rain Sinking South Into Houston Metro. A band of heavy rain has been sinking southward toward Houston over the past couple of hours. This is producing torrential hourly rainfall amounts. At Houston Intercontinental Airport, 3.40” of rain fell in an hour (8:53-9:53 AM) with 6.24” in total reported in just under two hours (8:53-10:44 AM), and a Harris County Flood Control District rain gauge (Greens Bayou @ US 59) reported 6.24” in an hour. This is already causing significant and life-threatening flash flooding across northern Harris County, with roads impassable and water rescues being requested. A Civil Emergency Message was issued at 9:09 AM from the Harris, Montgomery, Liberty, and Chambers Offices of Emergency Management that advises residents to stay put and do not venture out onto local roadways.

Civil Emergency Message:

One Hour Rainfall Totals Through 10:38 AM From The Harris County Flood Warning System:

Flash Flood Warnings & Emergencies. Several Flash Flood Emergencies are in place across southeastern Texas as of 11 AM CDT, including one for north central Harris County until Noon. This does include the northeastern portion of the 610 loop.

Flash Flood Emergencies In Texas As Of 11 AM:


Flash Flood Emergency for north central Harris County:

Meanwhile, a Flash Flood Warning has been issued for southeastern Harris County, including downtown Houston, as rainfall rates of 2-4” per hour are possible and flash flooding is expected to begin shortly. Again, residents are advised not to venture out onto local roadways and stay put.

Flash Flood Warning for southeastern Harris County:

D.J. Kayser, Meteorologist, Praedictix


Atlantic Outlook
Things are very active in the Atlantic basin with 2 hurricanes ongoing. The good news is that Humberto is lifting quickly to the northeast away from the U.S. and the latest forecasts have Hurricane Jerry lifting north over the next few days. However, we need to keep an eye on those other waves drifting through the Caribbean through the end of September.
Points of Tropical Origin: September 1st - 10th
The first few of weeks of September are typically some of the most active times for tropical activity, which ocean waters are 'warmer' and upper level winds are typically a little less intense. The image below shows all of the tropical cyclone points of origin from 1851 to 2015. Note how many different systems have developed with their corresponding tracks.
Average Peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season
Believe it or not, there is an actual date when things are typically the most active in the Atlantic Basin. According to NOAA's NHC, the peak is September 10th. That number is based off of the "Number of Tropical Cyclones per 100 Years" - "The official hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin (the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico) is from 1 June to 30 November. As seen in the graph above, the peak of the season is from mid-August to late October. However, deadly hurricanes can occur anytime in the hurricane season."
Still Active in the Eastern Pacific
According to NOAA's NHC, there are 3 named storms ongoing with Kiko, Mario and Lorena. Lorena is the most concering storm as it skirts the west coast of Mexico with gusty winds and heavy rain.

National Precipitation Since January 1st
Take a look at the precipitaiton across the nation since January 1st and note how many locations are above average so far this year. Some of the wettest locations have been in the Central US, where St. Louis is nearly 15" above average and off to its 2nd wettest start to any year on record. It's also nice to see folks in California are still dealing with a precipitation surplus thanks to a very wet start to 2019. However, the last several weeks have been very dry there.
US Drought Monitor
According to the US Drought Monitor, there a few locations across the country that are a bit dry, but there doesn't appear to be anything widespread or significant. However, areas in Alaska and the Pacific Northwest seem to a little bit more dry than others. We've also seen an uptick in the drought across the Southern Plains where severe and even extreme drought conditions have been popping up. 
8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the extended outlook through the end of September suggests above average precipitation across parts of the northern tier of the nation and especially across the Upper Midwest. Meanwhile, folks along and east of the Appalachians will be drier than average. 

8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC, the temperature outlook through the end of the month and early October suggests a pretty tight temperature contrast setting up across the Plains. This could be a little concerning as several rounds of showers and storms maybe possible, some of which could be strong to severe along with areas of heavy rain. Stay tuned.


Extended Temperature Outlook for the Twin Cities

Here's the temperature outlook for the MSP Airport through the end of September, which shows a pretty warm temp over the next few days. However, the extended outlook towards early October looks much cooler and very fall-like at that point, so soak up the warmth while we have it!


Warmest September Temps on Record at MSP

Here are the warmest temps on record at MSP for the month of September. Note that there has only been (1) 100 degree day, which happened back in 1931. Highs in the 90s are certainly more common and have happened quite a few times. In fact, last year in 2018 we had a high of 92 in September and in 2017 there was a 94 degree high temp. Since 2000, there have been (9) 90 high temps during the month of September. 


A Wet 2019 Continues. More Weekend Storms
By Todd Nelson, filling in for Douglas.

Imelda has been a very surprising storm to say the least. Earlier this week, it gained tropical storm status just before making landfall along the Texas Coast. Despite being downgraded to a tropical depression, slow moving Imelda wreaked havoc across parts of southeast Texas with reports of 30 to more than 40 inches of rain in just a matter of days.

Hurricane Harvey impacted some of the same areas back in August 2017 and was considered the wettest tropical cyclone is U.S. history, where more than 60 inches of rain fell in Netherland, TX.

In other news, Rochester, MN picked up more than a half an inch of rain on Thursday morning, which put them over the top as the wettest year on record and it's only mid September! The previous record wettest year was just shy of 44 inches set in 1990.

Minneapolis is still sitting at its 2nd wettest start to any year on record with more rain on the way late tonight into Saturday, go figure.

By the way, the Autumnal Equinox arrives Monday with bright sun returning to a blue sky near you.


Extended Forecast

FRIDAY: Sticky with a few storms. Winds: SE 10-15. High: 83.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of storms overnight. Winds: S 5-10. Low: 68.

SATURDAY: Breezy with scattered storms. Winds: SSW 10-20. High: 77.

SUNDAY: Cooler breeze. Passing shower up north. Winds: WNW 10-20. Wake-up: 57 High: 72.

MONDAY: Bright sunshine returns. Winds: SSW 7-12. Wake-up: 54 High: 73.

TUESDAY: Increasing PM rumble threat. Winds:SSW 5-10. Wake-up: 55. High: 75.

WEDNESDAY: Windy. Lingering shower or storm. Winds: WNW 10-20. Wake-up: 56. High: 71.

THURSDAY: Dry skies return. Winds: SSE 7-12. Wake-up: 63 High: 80.

This Day in Weather History
September 20th

2001: 3/4 to 1 3/4 inch hail falls in Freeborn and Faribault counties.

1972: A downpour in Duluth produces 5 1/2 inches in ten hours.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis
September 20th

Average High: 70F (Record: 91F set in 1931)
Average Low: 50F (Record: 28F set in 1962)

Record Rainfall: 1.82" set in 1902
Record Snowfall: Trace set in 1927

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
September 20th

Sunrise: 6:57am
Sunset: 7:14pm

Hours of Daylight: ~12 hours & 17 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~ 3 minutes & 6 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 21st): ~ 3 hours & 41 minutes

Moon Phase for September 20th at Midnight
0.8 Days Before Last Quarter Moon

See more from Space.com HERE:


What's in the Night Sky?

"Tonight, since the moon is waning and gone from the sky in early evening, find the Andromeda galaxy, the great spiral galaxy next door to our Milky Way. It’s the most distant thing you can see with your eye alone. It’s best seen in the evening at this time of year, assuming you’re in the Northern Hemisphere. Most people find the galaxy by star-hopping from the constellation Cassiopeia, which is a very noticeable M- or W-shaped pattern on the sky’s dome. I learned to find the Andromeda galaxy by star-hopping from the Great Square of Pegasus, to the two graceful streams of stars making up the constellation Andromeda. Look at the chart at the top of this post. It shows both constellations – Cassiopeia and Andromeda – so you can see the galaxy’s location with respect to both. Notice the star Schedar in Cassiopeia. It’s the constellation’s brightest star, and it points to the galaxy."

See more from Earth Sky HERE:

Average Tornadoes By State in September
According to NOAA, the number of tornadoes in September is quite a bit  across much of the nation, especially across the southern US. However, folks across the Plains and Upper Midwest still see (on average) a fair amount of tornadoes. Note that Minnesota typically sees 2 tornadoes, which is much lower than our average peak of in June (15). 
2019 Preliminary Tornado Count
Here's the 2019 preliminary tornado count across the nation, which shows 1,461 tornadoes since the beginning of the year. May was a very active month and produced several hundred tornadoes across the Central uS and across parts of the Ohio Valley.

2019 Preliminary Tornado Count

Here's a look at how many tornadoes there have been across the country so far this year. The preliminary count through September 13th suggests that there have been a total of 1,495 which is above the 2005-2015 short term average of 1209. Interestingly, this has been the busiest tornado season since 2011, when nearly 1,782 tornadoes were reported.
Sunday Weather Outlook
High Temps on Friday will be fairly warm across parts of the Central US with temperatures still running nearly +5F to +15F above average. Feels like temps in some of these areas could approach the 100s! Meanwhile, folks in the Northwest will still be running nearly -5F to -15F below average with areas of rain and even some mountain snow!
National Weather Outlook
Here's the weather outlook as we head into the weekend, which suggests areas of heavy rain and thunder across parts of the Central US. Meanwhile, the remnants of Imelda will fade over the Lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast.

Heavy Ranifall Potential
Here's the 7-day precipitation forecast from NOAA's WPC, which suggests pockets of heavy rain over the Central US over the coming days. Interestingly, some of this moisture will be associated with tropical systems in both the Gulf of Mexico and Eastern Pacific.
"Devastated by Dorian: Photos From the Bahamas"
"Two weeks have passed since Hurricane Dorian finally moved away from the Bahamas, after pummeling the island nation for days with sustained winds reaching 185 mph (295 kph). The official death toll has reached 50, but hundreds remain listed as missing, and search-and-rescue teams continue to comb through widespread wreckage. Thousands of residents evacuated in the days following the storm, but many remain on the hard-hit islands of the Abacos and Grand Bahama. Bahamian agencies are working with NGOs, foreign governments, and cruise and travel corporations to provide food, water, and supplies to those still in need. Gathered below, images from the past 10 days across the Bahamas, still reeling from disaster."

"The Power of Fear in the Thawing Arctic"
"How long did I walk in the footsteps of the bear? It was a warm day, 20 years ago and 80 miles north of the Arctic Circle, the sky translucent blue behind low mountains. The tundra, just starting to turn autumn crimson and saffron, held all my attention. Eventually, I looked down at the trail. And there: the ovoid front paw prints, claws puncturing a constellation into the mud inches above each toe, trailed by back feet as long as two hand spans. Grizzly. Next to them, indentations from my boots. Both filling slowly with water. The clock of the morning’s rain put the bear at five, maybe 10 minutes ahead, invisible where the trail turned among willow brambles. For half a moment, I wondered at the tracks—this grizzly must weigh 700 pounds, maybe 800. Then another calculation: How many feet between myself and the bear? Thirty? Twenty. A hot wire uncoiled below my ribs, a jolt of fear so pure it tasted like metal. I had been in the Arctic for two days when that bear chose not to turn on the trail and end me with a swat of his paw. Because of his decision—it was a male, I am guessing, from the size—I was alive to spend the next two years living in his territory. I was never again stupid enough to go walking alone and unarmed in autumn. But the moment with the grizzly, unseen yet so present, was not the last spark of that particular and striking kind of fear, the fear of an animal or circumstance bursting through my impression of being an isolated, sovereign human self. I thought, too, that fear was purely negative, a sensation without value. The bush had other plans: Those grizzly prints were the first lesson on a syllabus that would reshape how I imagined the human relationship with the world at large."

"The Fall Foliage Season Will Be Delayed, According to Experts"
"Labor Day has come and gone, Pumpkin Spice Lattes are readily available in Starbucks nationwide, and all the kids are back in school. There’s just one more thing we need to make it feel like fall: Fall foliage. But hold your horses leaf peepers, because it looks like the changing fall colors are going to be a bit delayed this year. According to The Weather Channel, this year’s fall foliage schedule will likely be delayed by several weeks across the nation. That’s because temperatures across the nation will likely remain above average for several weeks to come. The weather service noted, parts of the Northeast, Southeast, Rockies, and West have at least a 50 percent chance of warmer-than-average temperatures through the middle and end of September. Though warm days are a good thing for foliage they must also be paired with cool nights. However, the temperatures will remain too high then too. So, just how late are we talking? According to The Weather Channel, the foliage will be pushed back by about a week. And when they do actually change it will be quite a show thanks to the warm, wet summer that helped fill all the trees with leaves. Here’s the good news: Even with this year’s late start, it’s still going to turn a little earlier than last year."

"In the wake of Hurricane Dorian, which the National Weather Service called one of the most powerful to make landfall in modern history, two experts discuss how to prepare for—and recover from—a storm. The hurricane’s 185 mph winds and rampant flooding devastated the Bahamas, left scores dead, and more than 70,000 without food or shelter. We’ll likely see more tropical storms and hurricanes this fall, and future storms may rival Dorian’s strength, researchers say. And while it may not be possible to link any single hurricane directly to climate change, research does indicate that warmer ocean and air temperatures are making storms more intense and destructive. Unfortunately, public concern does not always correspond with these new realities, researchers say. “More than half of all Americans do not prepare for disasters,” says Robyn Gershon, a clinical professor of epidemiology at the New York University College of Global Public Health."

"New models show that the earth is warming faster than first thought"
"The next-generation models represent climate trends more accurately. Scientists have made no secret of the extreme challenges posed by climate change, with the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) repeatedly stressing the importance of keeping global warming below two degrees. But now it seems the situation is much more serious than previously understood, with new climate models predicting average temperatures could rise by as much as seven degrees by 2100. The findings come from a new generation of climate models, known collectively as CMIP6. These models use increased supercomputing power and sharper representations of weather systems, natural and man-made particles, and cloud changes in a warming world. Olivier Boucher, head of the Institute Pierre Simon Laplace Climate Modelling Centre in Paris, explains that, "We have better models now. They have better resolution and they represent current climate trends more accurately."

Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

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Ration of Thursday Sun, Then More T-storms. Update on Imelda, Humberto and Jerry

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Last Weekend of Summer. Somewhat Stormy Saturday