Tornado - Near Morristown, Minnesota
Tornado - Near Faribault, Minnesota
*A NWS Survey indicated that an EF-1 tornado touchdown approximately 2 miles SW of Roberds Lake and trackers northeast over Roberds Lake, severely damaging numerous homes, boats, cabins and trailers. The tornado continued to track northeast across County Road 21, and over Interstate 35, before dissipating northeast of the interstate.
Tornado - Near Lake Elysian and Waterville, Minnesota
"As of 800 AM, Friday, September 21, 2018, damage survey teams from the NWS were in the process of surveying areas of damage across the area impacted by the storms. Radar data and spotter reports indicated that a few tornadoes likely occurred with the storms, and survey teams will make the final determination as to if, when, and where tornadoes occurred. This page will be updated as new information is received."
Storm Reports - Thursday, September 20th, 2018
According to the MN DNR, the typical peak for fall color starts in mid/late September across far northern Minnesota, while folks in the Twin Cities enjoy it around late September to mid October.
"Although it may feel like this hot and steamy summer may never end, fall -- with its mercifully cooler weather, pumpkin drinks, and changing leaves -- is nearly upon us. So, it'd behoove you to start looking at the trees. The changing of the seasons brings with it ample reason to break out a flannel shirt and walk through the stunning fall foliage all across the country, and thanks to the above-average moisture and temperatures this summer, you'll have plenty of time to ensure that you can venture into the woods and take it all in. You may have missed your chance to fit in another summer trip this year, but on the bright side, you have more than enough time to plot an adventure through American's stunning forests to catch the changing leaves, or dare we say go "leaf peeping." To make matters even easier, SmokyMountains.com has released its annual interactive fall foliage forecast map, predicting when and where the leaves will be at their most vibrant hues of red, yellow, orange, and brown. And while there's no forecast that's 100% accurate, the map can serve as your primary resource if you're inclined to wander into the woods this fall."
"How Weather Affects Allergy Forecast"
"Weather plays a direct role in the severity and length of the allergy season. Weather conditions will increase the amount of pollen production to yield high pollen levels or decrease pollen production to yield low pollen levels. A mild winter can signify an early allergy season, since trees tend to start pollinating earlier. Dry, windy weather spreads pollen quickly, producing a higher distribution of pollen…increasing allergy symptoms. A late freeze can delay tree pollination, producing lower pollen counts. Rain can reduce the pollen count by washing pollen from the air, thereby providing relief for allergy sufferers. Although sometimes rain can cause an adverse effect: rain in late fall or winter can increase tree pollination amounts, causing higher pollen levels. Increased rain in spring makes grass grow faster to produce more unwanted pollen."
US Drought Monitor - Minnesota
Despite recent heavy rains across parts of the state, the latest update from the US Drought Monitor shows that parts of northwestern Minnesota are still considered to be moderate to severe drought. There really wasn't much of a change since last week; a little more than 8% of the region is considered to be in a moderate drought, while 0.27% of the region is under a severe drought. Abnormally dry conditions remain the same at 33%.
A Tornadic Miracle - Hurricane Scale Outdated?
By Paul Douglas
Up until Thursday Minnesota was experiencing a relatively quiet year for tornadoes. Much of the summer season was too hot for spinning, "supercell" storms capable of twisters. But Thursday was ripe with wind shear and extreme instability. Tornado watches and warnings went out in a timely fashion. It's a minor miracle there were no serious injuries (or worse) from the 5 confirmed tornadoes south of MSP.
Some meteorologists are arguing that the Saffir Simpson scale used to rate hurricanes needs an overhaul. "Florence" was downgraded to a Category 1. Many locals mistakenly believed they could ride out the storm, only to be rescued. The scale takes winds into account, but not the size of the storm surge or quantity of rain expected. Florence stalled, squeezing out 30-40 inches of water. It will take months for some of these towns to recover.
A fine Sunday gives way to T-storms late Monday; another round of rain Thursday, and next weekend may be sloppy and wet.
The brunt of Canadian air stays north of the border; the Twin Cities should be frost-free into the first week of October.
SUNDAY: Mild sun. Breezy. Winds: SE 10-20. High: 73.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy and cool. Winds: SE 10. Low: 58
MONDAY: Still balmy. T-storms arrive late. Winds: S 15-25. High: 76.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Few showers. Winds: NW 10-15. Wake-up: 54. High: 63.
WEDNESDAY: Mix of clouds and sun. Probably dry. Winds: W 8-13. Wake-up: 48. High: 62.
THURSDAY: Windy and cooler. Showers taper. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 50. High: 61.
FRIDAY: Partly sunny and comfortable. Winds: N 5-10. Wake-up: 44. High: 60.
SATURDAY: Clouds increase, more showers late. Winds: NE 7-12. Wake-up: 45. High: 58.
This Day in Weather History
1995: 0.2 inches of snow falls in the St. Cloud area.
1985: Early snow falls over portions of Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Just under a half inch (0.4) is recorded at MSP Airport, mostly during the afternoon.
1937: From summer to winter. The temperature was 101 at Wheaton. Then a cold front came through causing the mercury to tumble below freezing.
Average High/Low for Minneapolis
Average High: 69F (Record: 90F set in 2017)
Average Low: 49F (Record: 30F set in 1983)
Record Rainfall: 1.98" set in 2010
Record Snowfall: Trace in 1928
Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
Hours of Daylight: ~12 hours & 7 minutes
Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~3 minutes & 6 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 21st): 3 hours and 30 Minutes
Moon Phase for September 23rd at Midnight
0.8 Days Until Full "Harvest" Moon
Traditionally, this designation goes to the full moon that occurs closest to the autumnal (fall) equinox. The Harvest Moon usually comes in September, but (on average) once or twice per decade, it will fall in early October. At the peak of the harvest, farmers can work into the night by the light of this moon. Usually, the moon rises an average of 50 minutes later each night, but for the few nights around the Harvest Moon, the moon seems to rise at nearly the same time each night: just 25 to 30 minutes later each night across the U.S., and only 10 to 20 minutes later for much of Canada and Europe. Corn, pumpkins, squash, beans and wild rice — the chief Native American staples — are now ready for gathering. Fullness occurs at 8:54 p.m. CDT .
What's in the Night Sky?
According to EarthSky.org this is what will be visible in the night sky over the next several nights:
"The 2018 autumnal equinox for the Northern Hemisphere (spring equinox for the Southern Hemisphere) will take place on Sunday, September 23, at 1:54 UTC. At this special moment – the instant of the September equinox – the sun is at zenith, or straight overhead, as seen from Earth’s equator. That’s the meaning of an equinox. The September equinox sun crosses the sky’s equator, going from north to south. Who will see the sun overhead at the moment of this year’s equinox? If you were on the sun on September 23 at 1:54 UTC, you’d see the hemisphere of Earth shown in the simulated image below. Looks like you’d have to be on a ship in the Pacific Ocean, some 35o north of Canberra, New South Wales, Australia, to see the sun exactly directly overhead at noon at the exact moment of the equinox. But no matter. Everyone along Earth’s equator on the day of the equinox – and for a day or two before and after it – will experience that noonday sun more or less overhead."
"It’s been a week since Florence made landfall. Now Wilmington braces for more flooding."
A week after Hurricane Florence arrived on the North Carolina shore, roads, homes and businesses from Kinston to Wilmington remain submerged — and some waterways are still rising. Florence “has deeply wounded our state, wounds that will not heal soon. So many people are still hurting,” Gov. Roy Cooper said in a news conference Saturday morning. “Many storm victims still need a place to call home for weeks or months.”
According to NOAA, the average peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season is on September 10th. Note that on average, things are still pretty active through the 2nd half of September into October.
2018 Lightning Fatalities - EIGHTEEN
Did you know that lightning ranks as one of the top weather related killers in the U.S.? An average of nearly 50 people are killed each year in the United States and so far this year, 18 people have died from lightning; 14 have been males and only 4 have been females. Interestingly, from 2008-2017, 234 males have died, while only 65 females have died.
PRELIMINARY Tornado Count This Year
According to NOAAs SPC, the PRELIMINARY tornado count across the US this year stands at 843 (through September 20th). Note that this is less than the last couple of years, but more than what we had in 2013. Keep in mind that the short-term average (2005-2015) suggests an average of more than 1,219 tornadoes.
Here's the average number of tornadoes during the month of September by state. Florida sees the most with 8, while Minnesota averages only 2 tornadoes.
1.) Heavy rain across portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Ohio Valley, and the Tennessee Valley, Sun, Sep 23.
2.) Heavy rain across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, and the Ohio Valley, Tue, Sep 25.
3.) Much below normal temperatures across portions of the Northern Plains and the Northern Rockies, Thu, Sep 27.
4.) Flooding possible across portions of the Southeast, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Great Lakes, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Northern Plains.
5.) Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of the Southeast, the Great Lakes, the Mid-Atlantic, and the Southern Plains.
6.) Heavy rain across Kodiak Island and coastal portions of the South Coast of Alaska, Wed, Sep 26.
High winds across coastal portions of southwest mainland Alaska, Sun, Sep 23.
7.) Slight risk of much below normal temperatures for portions of the Great Basin, Northern and Central rockies, Central and Northern Plains, Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes, Fri-Sun, Sep 28-Sep 30.
8.) Slight risk of much below normal temperatures for portions of the Northeast, Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, and northern Mid-Atlantic, Mon-Tue, Oct 1-2.
9.) Moderate risk of much below normal temperatures for portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and the Northern Plains, Fri-Sat, Sep 28-Sep 29.
10.) Slight risk of heavy precipitation for portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Tennessee Valley, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Southern Appalachians, the Southeast, and the Southern Plains, Fri-Sun, Sep 28-Sep 30.
11.) Moderate risk of heavy precipitation for portions of the Southeast, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Southern Plains, and the Tennessee Valley, Fri-Sun, Sep 28-Sep 30.
12.) Slight risk of heavy precipitation for coastal portions of the South Coast of Alaska, Fri-Thu, Sep 28-Oct 4.
13.) Severe Drought across the Central Plains, the Central Rockies, the Lower Mississippi Valley, the Central Great Basin, the Northern Plains, the Southern Plains, Hawaii, the Northern Great Basin, the Southern Rockies, the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Northeast, California, the Northern Rockies, the Upper Mississippi Valley, the Pacific Northwest, and the Southwest.
Temperature Anomaly on Saturday
The temperature anomaly across North America on Saturday showed well above average temps across much of the eastern half of the nation, while much cooler than average temps were found across much of Canada and into the Central US
The middle part of September was pretty warm across much of the nation, but we're heading into more Fall-like temps as we approach the end of the month/early part of October. Here's the 850mb temp anomaly from Saturday to Wednesday. Note that the warmer than average temps will move east, while cooler than average temps look to start filtering into the Upper Midwest.
8 to 14 Day Temperature Outlook
According to NOAA's CPC, September 30th - October 6th looks to be cooler than average across much of the Central US and Upper Midwest. With that said, we might start seeing a little more frost across the far north towards the end of the month.
Weather Outlook Ahead
The weather loop below shows heavy rain across the Southern US through the weekend ahead. This moisture is in association with the remnants of TD19 that developed in the Eastern Pacific last week.
7 Day Precipitation Outlook
According to NOAA's WPC, the 7-day precipitation outlook suggests areas of very heavy rain across the Southern US with pockets of 2" to 5" tallies. The heaviest rain looks to fall across parts of Tennessee and Kentucky.
Here is the national drought map from September 18th, which shows extreme and exceptional drought conditions across much of the Four-Corners region. However, areas of heavy rain in the Central and Southern Plains as of late has really helped improve drought conditions there. Additional heavy rains over the weekend will further improve drought conditions there.
"North Carolina residents might be excused for breathing a premature sigh of relief when Hurricane Florence, once a Category 4 storm, was downgraded to Category 1 before making landfall. But those numbers don’t tell the whole story–and what they leave out can have life-and-death consequences. “Florence is an excellent example of a storm that is a lower category than it was and yet is still extremely dangerous,” Bill Lapenta, director of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction at the National Weather Service, tells TIME. Florence especially highlighted one key shortfall of the system known as the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale: while it measures a hurricane’s wind speed, it doesn’t take into account the speed at which the storm itself is moving. Those are often vastly different figures. While hurricanes can produce winds that whirl as fast as a race car, the systems themselves can plod along at the pace of a person taking a stroll. Slower storms can dump biblical amounts of rain in a more limited area over longer periods of time. That increases the risk for those in its path. Other threats, like storm surge, aren’t measured by a hurricane’s category either."
"Research Shows Wind Farms Could Divert Hurricane Rains"
"With enough wind turbines, the rainfall from Hurricane Harvey could have been reduced by 20 percent, according to a new modeling study. Nature’s strength was laid bare again last week as two tropical storms marauded through Southeast Asia and the southeastern United States. Super Typhoon Mangkhut, thought to be one of the most powerful cyclones to hit the Philippines in decades, uprooted homes and turned roads into violent rivers. It killed at least 81 people before twisting its way over the South China Sea and careering into the Chinese mainland where the death toll rose further. On the US east coast, Hurricane Florence caused widespread flooding, killed at least 37people, and left millions without power. And as with Hurricane Harvey in 2017, Florence stalled over the continent, dropping ever more rain long after making landfall. In the face of such a raw display of nature’s fury, it may seem like little can be done to lessen the blow of a hurricane. But according to new research, help in tempering the power of hurricanes could one day come from an unexpected source: offshore wind farms."
"Can Planes Fly Through Thunderstorms and Hurricanes?"
"Whenever a large storm front develops somewhere in the world, air travel gets a bit more complicated than usual. Air routes are closed, holding patterns are established, flights get delayed and some are unfortunately cancelled. Thunderstorms present a massive problem if they are standing between you are your destination, even if the area they affect is relatively small. Hurricanes, however, are a beast of a whole other nature. Hurricanes are massive, spanning hundreds or thousands of miles and affecting flights on a regional scale. While a thunderstorm may develop and move through an area quickly, the effects of a hurricane linger for days. Airports directly affected by a hurricane will close for obvious reasons, often for days. Airport closures due to hunderstorms tend to be much shorter. But what happens to all the flights that need to travel through a thunderstorm or a hurricane? First, airlines treat thunderstorms differently from hurricanes for flight-planning purposes."
"NASA Just Captured Data on an Incredibly Rare Type of Cloud in Earth's Atmosphere"
"A groundbreaking Hurricane Florence study could change how we think about climate"
"As Hurricane Florence approached the Carolinas last week, up to 1 million residents boarded up their windows, emptied grocery shelves and gas pumps, and evacuated with their families to escape the storm’s impending wrath. Simultaneously, scientists in other parts of the country were scrambling to produce a landmark study: one that would put numbers to just how much worse climate change had made this dangerous storm. They found that the slow-moving hurricane would bring 50 percent more rain to the Carolinas due to climate change. The researchers from Stony Brook University in New York and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in California released their findings on Wednesday — two days before the storm even made landfall. “We knew it was going to be an impactful storm,” Kevin Reed, lead author on the study, tells Grist. “We decided: This technology we’ve been using in previous storms — why not apply it in real time?”
"August 2018: Earth's Fifth Warmest August on Record"
"August 2018 was the planet's fifth-warmest August since record keeping began in 1880, said NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) on Monday. NASA also rated August 2018 as the fifth-warmest August on record, with the only warmer August months coming in 2016, 2017, 2014, and 2015. Occasional differences in rankings between NASA and NOAA arise mostly due to how they handle data-sparse regions such as the Arctic, where few surface weather stations exist. Global land temperatures during August 2018 were the sixth warmest on record, and global ocean temperatures were the fifth warmest on record, according to NOAA. Global satellite-measured temperatures in August 2018 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the ninth and seventh warmest in the 40-year record, respectively, according to the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and RSS."
"El Niño watch: Here’s what it means for cities"
"There’s a 70 percent chance of an El Niño event occurring this winter. Think back a few years to the winter of 2015-2016 and you might remember a plethora of headlines surrounding El Niño, a phenomenon that can influence weather patterns around the world. That winter, we wondered whether a record-breaking El Niño event could save California from drought and how it impacted snow in the Northeast. Now, El Niño is set to return. In an update from earlier this month, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed that there’s a 50-55 percent chance of an El Niño onset in the U.S. through November. By winter, the chance of El Niño conditions increases to about 65-70 percent. But what does it all mean, and why should city dwellers care? Curbed breaks through the hype to tell you what exactly El Niño is and what you can expect this winter."
"At Least 3.4 Million Farm Animals Drowned in the Aftermath of Hurricane Florence"
"Millions more are still at risk of dying from exposure, starvation, or drowning as the Carolinas recover. More than 5,500 pigs and 3.4 million chickens and turkeys have been killed in Hurricane Florence, mostly by drowning in record-breaking floods in North Carolina, says the state’s agriculture department. That number is expected to rise in the coming days, says North Carolina Department Agriculture and Consumer Services, as many farm owners have not had the opportunity to properly account for their losses, and millions of farm animals are still stranded in high-risk flooded areas. Hurricane Florence, which made landfall in North Carolina on September 14, claimed at least 37 human lives and cost $17 billion in damages. But the storm has also taken a brutal toll on some of the country’s biggest livestock suppliers. Sanderson Farms, the third largest poultry supplier in the US, has alone."