Wintry Up North
 
I had a chance to spend some time out in the woods this weekend up north and it sure was pretty. The snow brightened up the landscape quite significantly. It sure was quiet out there.
 
 
Snow Depth
 
Here's the estimate snow depth from NOAA's NOHRSC, which suggests several inches off snow still on the ground across the northern half of the state. Some of the heaviest snow depth can still be found along the inland spots of the North Shore.
 
 
Fairly Quiet Weather Ahead
 
The forecast across the Upper Midwest as we head through the next few days looks fairly quiet. There may be a little snow in spots, but nothing that looks terribly impressive. The one thing that might be a little more impressive is the cold that looks to persist through the first full week of November.

Snowfall Potential Through the Week

Here's the snowfall potential through Saturday morning, which suggests minimal snowfall potential through the first full week of November. The best potential of any accumulation looks to be in far northern MN, where an 1" or 2" maybe possible.

_________________________________________________________________
 
3rd Earliest Snow in Seattle
 
WOW! How about that... it actually snowed in Seattle! Not only was the 0.4" good enough for a daily snowfall record, but it was also the 3rd earliest snowfall on on record. The earliest snowfall on record was on October 27th, back in 1971 and it was a pretty decent amount; 2".
 
 
Tracking Tropical Depression NINETEEN
 
As of AM Monday, Tropical Depression NINETEEN was churning through the Central Atlantic and was expected to become the 17th named storm of the season.
 
 
Tracking Tropical Depression NINETEEN
 
Here's the official track from NOAA's NHC, which suggests this storm becoming RINA by this early week time frame. The storm will then quickly lift north-northeast later this week.
 

______________________________________________________________________________
 
September 10th - Official Peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season

We are less than 1 month from the official close of the Atlantic Hurricane Season (November 30th). Note that peak activity generally occurs on September 10th and stays somewhat active through the month of October, but really diminishes through the month of November. With that said, there have been years where tropical activity continues through the end of the year and even into the follow calendar year! 2005 was one of those years as Tropical Storm Zeta developed December 30th and continued through January 6th, 2006.


___________________________________________________________

Ongoing Large Wildfires

Here's a look at the current wildfire map across the country. Note that wildfire activity as REALLY slowed down with only a few major wildfires still burning across parts of California, Washington, Arkansas and Texas.

Here's a list of all the current large wildfires from Inciweb:

_________________________________________________________
 
PRELIMINARY 2017 Tornado Map

It certainly has been a fairly active first half of 2017 with 1,471 preliminary tornado reports through October 31st. Note that this is the most tornadoes through that date since 2011, when there were 1,820 reports. The map below shows the distribution of the tornadoes so far this year.

PRELIMINARY 2017 Tornado Count

According to NOAA's SPC, the PRELIMINARY 2017 tornado count is 1,463 (through November 5th). Note that is the most active year for tornadoes since 2011, when there were 1,820 tornadoes. Keep in mind there was a major tornado outbreak in the Gulf Coast region from April 25-28, 2011 that spawned nearly 500 tornadoes, some of which were deadly. That outbreak is known as the Super Outbreak of 2011 and has gone down in history as one of the biggest, costliest and one of the deadliest tornado outbreaks in history.


_____________________________________________________________________

National Weather Hazards Ahead...

1.) Heavy rain and snow (higher elevations) across portions of California and the Pacific Northwest, Thu, Nov 9.
2.) Heavy snow across portions of the Northern Rockies, Thu-Fri, Nov 9-Nov 10.
3.) Heavy snow across portions of Wyoming and southwest Montana, Fri, Nov 10.
4.) Heavy precipitation across portions of California, the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Rockies, and the Northern Great Basin, Sun-Mon, Nov 12-Nov 13.
5.) High winds across portions of the Northeast and the Great Lakes, Fri, Nov 10.
6.) Much below normal temperatures from the Northern Rockies to the Great Lakes, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, Thu-Sat, Nov 9-Nov 11.
7.) High winds across portions of mainland Alaska, Sun, Nov 12.
8.) Heavy precipitation across portions of the Pacific Northwest, the Northern Rockies, and the Northern Great Basin, Tue-Wed, Nov 14-Nov 15.
9.) Flooding possible across portions of Western New York and the Ohio Valley.
10.) Flooding occurring or imminent across portions of Florida.
11.) Slight risk of much below normal temperatures for portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Tue-Mon, Nov 14-Nov 20.
12.) Moderate risk of much below normal temperatures for portions of the Alaska Panhandle and mainland Alaska, Tue-Thu, Nov 14-Nov 16.
13.) High risk of much below normal temperatures for portions of mainland Alaska, Tue-Wed, Nov 14-Nov 15.
14.) Severe Drought across Hawaii, the Southern Plains, the Northern Plains, the Northern Rockies, and the Southwest.

_____________________________________________________________________

High Temps Tuesday

Here's a look at high temperatures across the nation on Tuesday, which suggests that temperatures across the northern half of the nation will be well below average. Some locations from Montana to Minnesota and into the Central Plains could be nearly -20F colder than average. However, parts of southern Texas to the Gulf Coast states could be nearly 10F to 15F above average.


National Weather Outlook

Here's the weather outlook through AM Wednesday, which shows fairly active weather across the country as a cold front slowly drifts south into the Southern US. Areas of widespread rain and thunder will be possible with areas of locally heavy rain from Texas to the Gulf Coast. There will also be areas of heavy snow across the Central Rockies as an area of low pressure slowly drifts south. The 2nd half of the week will feature areas of heavy precipitation in the Western US with more snow in the high elevations.

 
7 Day Precipitation Outlook

According to NOAA's WPC, areas of heavy precipitation will be possible across parts of the Arklatex region through the Mid-Atlantic states. Some locations could see 1" to 2"+ through the end of the week. The storm system that looks to move into the Western part of the country later this week will likely produce several inches of precipitation through the end of the week. Some locations could see 3" to 6"+ of liquid, which could turn into heavy high elevation snow

Snowfall Potential
Here's the snowfall potential over the next 5 days, which shows the heaviest snow falling across the high elevations in the Western US. There will also be some light accumulations across the northern tier of the nation. Interestingly, there could be some snow across parts of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandle.
 
________________________________________________________________________
 
A Slightly Warmer Front Brewing Next Week
By Paul Douglas
 
To be able to predict the weather we have to know what's happening now, not just in Minnesota, but worldwide. Not just at the surface or ground level, but throughout the "troposphere", the lowest 12 miles of atmosphere. That's a daunting requirement.
 
Weather satellites provide much of the "initialization data set", the raw fuel that goes into the weather model engines. But we still need real data, from airports and weather balloons, which provide a thumbprint of temperature, moisture & wind as they rise up through the atmosphere.
 
There are reports of staff shortages at National Weather Service offices, including Alaska, where Capital Weather Gang reports the Weather Service has suspended about 24 balloon launches per week. It's too early to panic but less data may impact accuracy of forecasts downwind, in our neck of the woods.
 
A dry week is shaping up. Another cold slap late in the week gives way to a milder, Pacific breeze next week. You'll be amazed how good 50 degrees can feel after a hard freeze.
 
After a cold spell it's nice to see the mercury bounce back to "normal".
________________________________________________________________________
 
Extended Forecast
 
 TUESDAY: Chilled sunlight. Winds: NW 7-12. Wake-up: 24. High: 33.
 
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and cold. Winds: WSW 5. Low: 23.
 
WEDNESDAY: Fading sun, not as cold. Winds: SW 7-12. High: 41.
 
THURSDAY: Early flakes give way to clearing. Winds: NW 10-20. Wake-up: 27. High: 30.
 
FRIDAY: Sunny start, clouds increase PM hours. Winds: SE 10-15. Wake-up: 19. High: 32.
 
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy, mix may stay south. Winds: S 7-12. Wake-up: 30. High: 40.
 
SUNDAY: Mix of clouds and sun, getting better. Winds: W 5-10. Wake-up: 32. High: 46.
 
MONDAY: Peeks of sun, grilling weather. Winds: S 10-15. Wake-up: 33. High: 48.
_______________________________________________________

This Day in Weather History
November 7th

1844: A large prairie fire at Fort Snelling occurs, followed by more fires later on in the week.
________________________________________________________

Average High/Low for Minneapolis
November 7th

Average High: 46F (Record: 72F set in 1874)
Average Low: 31F (Record: -6F set in 1991)

Record Rainfall: 1.67" set in 1915
Record Snowfall: 4.2" set in 1947
_________________________________________________________

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis
November 2nd

Sunrise: 7:00am
Sunset: 4:53pm

Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours 53 mins

Daylight LOST since yesterday: ~2 minutes and 37 seconds
Daylight LOST since summer solstice (June 20th): 5 hours & 44 minutes
__________________________________________________________

Moon Phase for November 7th at Midnight
2.6 Days Before First Quarter


_________________________

 Weather Outlook For Tuesday

Tuesday will be another chilly day across the region with temps running nearly 10F to 15F below average. Much of the state will only see highs in the 20s and 30s across Minnesota and the northern half of Wisconsin.

__________________________________________________________________________
 
Minneapolis Temperature Outlook

Here's the temperature outlook through November 20th, which shows chilly temps continuing as we head through the first full week of November. The extended forecast suggests temps warming into the mid/upper 40s by mid month before cooling a bit by the 3rd weekend of the month.

_________________________________________________________________

6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook

After a very chilly start to November, it appears that warmer than average temperatures will move back into the Upper Midwest from November 15th to November 19th.

6 to 10 Day Temperature Outlook

According to NOAA's CPC - much of the nation will remain above average with the exception of the Northwestern US, where cooler than average temps will be found.


_____________________________________________________________________

"Explainer: hydrofluorocarbons saved the ozone layer, so why are we banning them?"
 
"On October 28, Australia ratified the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol. Australia is the tenth country to ratify, joining others as diverse as Mali, Norway and Rwanda in a global commitment to dramatically reduce hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) in the atmosphere. Once 20 countries have ratified the amendment, it will become binding. HFCs were designed specifically to replace ozone-destroying compounds previously used in air conditioners and refrigerants. Unfortunately, we now know that HFCs are massively potent greenhouse gases – thousands of times more powerful than carbon dioxide (albeit released in far smaller quantities). If the Kigali Amendment becomes binding, the hunt will begin for a replacement for HFCs and their uses in industry. In a strange twist, the least environmentally harmful option may well be carbon dioxide. Where do HFCs come from? HFCs are made of carbon, fluorine and hydrogen. They are exclusively synthetic, meaning they have no known natural sources. To understand why they came into existence requires a quick history lesson. Throughout the second half of the 20th century, another class of compounds called chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) were widely used. CFCs are very stable, which made them ideal for many practical uses, including in refrigeration, foam packaging, and even aerosol cans for hair spray. However, scientists soon discovered that CFCs had a major downside. Because they are so stable, they can survive in the atmosphere long enough to eventually reach the ozone layer. Once there, they break down in sunlight and destroy ozone in the process."
 
 
__________________________________________________________________________
 
"A Glacier That Could Add 11 Feet To The Sea Level Is Dangerously Close To Melting"
 
Totten glacier, the largest in East Antarctica, is being melted from below by warm water that reaches the ice. Up until now it wasn’t entirely clear what was pushing this warm water towards the glacier however a research team at the University of Texas has made the worrying discovery that it is in fact intense winds that are to blame. While in the past this wouldn’t be as much of a problem, climate change is expected to see the intensity of these winds increase significantly in the future. That turns it into a very big problem because Totten just so happens to contain enough ice to raise the global sea level by a staggering 11 feet. It’s also considered the plug that locks in the ice of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. “Totten has been called the sleeping giant because it’s huge and has been seen as insensitive to changes in its environment,” said lead author Chad Greene, a Ph.D. candidate at the University of Texas Institute for Geophysics (UTIG). “But we’ve shown that if Totten is asleep, it’s certainly not in a coma ― we’re seeing signs of responsiveness, and it might just take the wind blowing to wake it up.” The team discovered that the glacier speeds up its flow towards the sea when winds over Antarctica’s southern ocean are particularly strong.
 
 
________________________________________________________________________
 
"Into the Vortex: Megacomputers and the Quest to Understand Superstorms"
 
"A MONSTER WAS coming to central Oklahoma. Early in the evening of May 30, 2013, Cathy Finley and her partner, Bruce Lee, were driving along a back road near the small town of Guthrie, Oklahoma, 30 miles north of the state’s capital, when they spotted Tim Samaras and two members of his crew leaning against a white sedan and looking out over the low hills. Samaras, an old friend of the couple’s and one of the most famous storm chasers in the country, was in the area for the same reason as Finley and Lee—they were all severe-weather researchers, and a tornado was on its way. The three friends had known each other for almost a decade, and in 2007 they helped found Twistex, a group dedicated to gathering atmospheric data to better understand ­tornadoes. Whenever a storm threatened to spin up a twister, the Twistex team would gas up the chase vehicles and assume familiar roles: Samaras would try to get as close as possible to the funnel to deploy his measurement probes, and Finley and Lee would slice through the storm in sedans outfitted with roof-mounted weather stations, gathering data that radar and weather balloons miss. A reputation for fearlessness landed the Twistex team a spot on a reality show called Storm Chasers, which featured their exploits for three seasons until Discovery Channel canceled the show in 2011 due to low ratings. Funding for Twistex dried up, and the members went their separate ways, meeting up whenever serious wind threatened to blow through the plains."
 
 

__________________________________________________________________________
 
"Extreme Weather Caused $129 Billion Of Economic Losses Globally Last Year [Infographic]"
 
Climate change is having an enormous negative impact on global labor productivity, the spread of infectious diseases and exposure to heatwaves and pollution, according to the inaugural report from The Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change, a research effort spearheaded by the British medical journal. The research also found that weather-related disasters are becoming more frequent with an average of 306 events attributable to extreme weather occurring every year between 2007 and 2016. Mainly storms and floods, that average represents a 46 percent increase since 2000. These events are also causing increasingly significant levels of economic damage with Hurricane Katrina alone inflicting $108 billion (in 2005 dollars) of losses, approximately four times as much as Hurricane Andrew in 1992. The scale of the threat posed by climate change and extreme weather can be seen from the following infographic. Last year, 797 weather-related disasters caused $129 billion of economic losses around the world, significantly higher than 2014's $97 billion. Ten years ago, the number of extreme weather events came to 606 while the bill for damage was far less than it is today, just over $69 billion.
 
 
 
"Warnings for a deadly weather hazard — snow squalls — are coming this winter"
 
One of the USA's deadliest weather hazards has never had a specific warning — until now. Snow squalls, which can kill more Americans than tornadoes do in some years, will finally get a specific weather warning from the National Weather Servicethis winter. They've caused massive and deadly chain-reaction highway pileups in recent winters because of their brief but intense snowfall rates, which can drop visibility at a moment's notice while slickening roads. Dozens of chain-reaction accidents can kill or injure dozens of people each winter and can wreck hundreds or even thousands of cars and trucks. For example, during the harsh winter of 2014-15, from Thanksgiving to late March, there were at least 57 pileups of 10 vehicles or more, according to a USA TODAY analysis. Almost all occurred in snow squalls or freezing rain. This new "snow squall warning" will convey the danger travelers face from an extreme reduction in visibility during these short-term bursts of heavy snow.
 
 
__________________________________________________________________
 
Thanks for checking in and don't forget to follow me on Twitter @TNelsonWX

Older Post

Afternoon Burst Of Snow Expected Monday - Weather Feels Like November

Newer Post

Hints of January Thursday - Touch of Indian Summer Next Week